Lakers are shooting almost the exact same percentage from 3 as the Heat in these playoffs.
Lakers are shooting much better in FG% overall, they lead all playoff teams.
All of the Lakers' opponents have been better from 3 in the playoffs than the Heat.
The Heat are a nice story, but I'd be surprised if this even goes 6. Feels like LeBron and AD are going to pick this Heat team apart. They're somewhat limited defensively, not a lot of length... I don't see many advantages for them in this one. I'm not scared of Miami's shooters... for that to be convincing, they should have shot a better percentage so far. Lakers can own the paint, use their length, make them shoot tough shots all series, and will win the rebounding battle as Miami will be outsized and Bam outnumbered overall.
If the Heat win... honestly I wouldn't even be mad, I'm already as a fan playing with house money since the Celtics and Clippers are out, and the Lakers frankly were not expected to get this far by many (including me). In fact I kind of like Miami! I like Butler, I like their starting 5, I love Spo & Riley. If they won, I would tip my cap to them.
But, while I could be wrong, this doesn't feel like Pistons in 04... honestly, feels more like Magic in 09.
Should be entertaining no matter what happens, but for me... pretty easy call to say Lakers in 5.
Maaaaaybe 6...
Great take. I'm not as confident with the Lakers for these reasons
-AD is now injured, ankle of all areas. If he is in pain, he might be more hesitant to take the lead, which is going to be crucial especially since his presence before the injury was the one clear advantage to rely on if he was playing aggressive. There is no guarantee he will be able to play all of the games if it ends up being 6-7 game series. He may injure it further and have to sit out. He has to deal with extreme pain while playing in a series that would be tough enough for anyone even in their best shape and best health. This is also his first NBA Finals. We don't know how he will handle the pressure and it's going to be a different type of pressure in many ways than the previous three rounds
-Rondo has been making a lot of threes. I'm nervous about this trend. I hope it continues, but if he starts missing them then that's one or two, three possessions that could have been given to a better player. It works because he's hitting them and this is a major advantage for the LAL to make the Heat pay whenever they sag off, but if he cannot continue then that will make it tougher on the team. He's been the x-factor lately. Who would have thought that Rajon Rondo would be one of the greatest 3pt shooters on the team since his return to form?
-KCP's level of play, can he sustain it in the NBA Finals? Confidence was always the issue for KCP it seems. If he goes back to his old self, and doesn't play with full confidence and belief in his play, that's going to hurt like no other. Lakers need him to sustain his high level of play to win this series. Defense is always sound, but lately his offense has been just what they've needed. He stepped up this year, I just hope he doesn't regress right when it counts the most
-Kyle Kuzma similar situation to KCP. It's incredible that he's contributing a great deal considering this is his first playoff run in his young career. He might not show up, might be the player to fuck everything up for the team in the end. His defense is spotty, and he's not the greatest scorer at times
-Heat have better sharpshooters. The Lakers hit a lot of threes as well, but if Spoelstra wants to run small ball all series long and try to shoot the Lakers out the gym every game then there will be less opportunity to utilize Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee. AD will be forced to stay in longer, play somewhere past 40 minutes because the Heat have Kelly O who can hit from outside, Bam can't shoot threes but his jumpshot might prove true and the Lakers cannot sag off him just in case...it's going to be interesting to see the battle of matchups going on throughout this series. Vogel and Kidd will have their work cut out for them to maximize what they can get on the court. Spoelstra was basically Pat Riley's protege so I think we can assume that the Miami Heat are very well prepared and ready to go
I think Lakers in 6 most likely, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Heat upset either. Wouldn't be a bit surprised to see it play out like that