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NFL 2015 Week 8 |OT| - A Fraud Knows What He Likes

squicken

Member
He's this week's Expected Points Added stat:

Awesome. I really feel like once people get more comfortable with EPA and WPA, they'll be less hateful to things like QBR and FPI. With Philly, it seems like their defensive proclivity at forcing turnovers is unlikely to continue, and CAR exposed them a bit as far as running the ball on them. But they are very good

Biggest surprise, by far, is how good the Jets offense is. I wanted Chan Gailey to be the Rams coordinator a few years ago. He satisfies my #1 super most important eyeball test for offensive coordinators: does your screen game work? All bad offensive coaches have bad screen games
 
Packers have allowed fewer points.
I missed this.

Packers have played against some really awful offenses. They have the potential to be a great defense (I hope), but they aren't it yet.

But speaking of awful offenses, we're playing against one on Sunday! So I still expect a W.
 

squicken

Member
Didn't realize the Giants had such a good TO margin. Not surprising to see the Eagles buck conventional wisdom. Chip goes his own way

CSXU-9yWoAA5zDb.jpg:large
 

eznark

Banned
I missed this.

Packers have played against some really awful offenses. They have the potential to be a great defense (I hope), but they aren't it yet.

But speaking of awful offenses, we're playing against one on Sunday! So I still expect a W.

shh
 

Godslay

Banned
I missed this.

Packers have played against some really awful offenses. They have the potential to be a great defense (I hope), but they aren't it yet.

But speaking of awful offenses, we're playing against one on Sunday! So I still expect a W.

It's misleading.

If you cut out Manning's pick 6s, then the Denver defense has given up 81 points to opposing teams. Which amounts to 13.5 ppg. Far below the 16.8 ppg GB has given up.

As far as the Den O, I guess well have to see what happens. Looks shitty in the stats, plenty of bad, but it hasn't been all bad.
 

eznark

Banned
It's misleading.

If you cut out Manning's pick 6s, then the Denver defense has given up 81 points to opposing teams. Which amounts to 13.5 ppg. Far below the 16.8 ppg GB has given up.

As far as the Den O, I guess well have to see what happens. Looks shitty in the stats, plenty of bad, but it hasn't been all bad.

Take away the garbage time 14 the Chiefs scored and the Packers are leading in ppg. Still a meaningless stats.

And if want to talk about bad offenses, Broncos have yet to play a good one as well. The Chiefs I guess would be the best offense they played?
 
Points per drive, as of now:
Code:
Offense
1    New England Patriots   3.09
2    Cincinnati Bengals     2.64
3    Arizona Cardinals      2.48
4    Green Bay Packers      2.40
5    Atlanta Falcons        2.18
6    San Diego Chargers     2.12
7    Oakland Raiders        2.10
8    New York Jets          2.03
9    Carolina Panthers      1.99
10   Buffalo Bills          1.98
11   Pittsburgh Steelers    1.91
12   Baltimore Ravens       1.86
13   New York Giants        1.86
14   Tampa Bay Buccaneers   1.81
15   Miami Dolphins         1.81
16   New Orleans Saints     1.80
17   Minnesota Vikings      1.78
18   Chicago Bears          1.77
19   Dallas Cowboys         1.75
20   Washington Redskins    1.74
21   Houston Texans         1.69
22   Tennessee Titans       1.64
23   Kansas City Chiefs     1.64
24   Jacksonville Jaguars   1.64
25   Philadelphia Eagles    1.63
26   Indianapolis Colts     1.61
27   Seattle Seahawks       1.60
28   Detroit Lions          1.59
29   Cleveland Browns       1.58
30   Denver Broncos         1.48
31   San Francisco 49ers    1.41
32   St. Louis Rams         1.36

Defense
1    Denver Broncos         1.12
2    New York Jets          1.28
3    St. Louis Rams         1.40
4    Philadelphia Eagles    1.43
5    Seattle Seahawks       1.44
6    Carolina Panthers      1.47
7    Green Bay Packers      1.58
8    Minnesota Vikings      1.58
9    Arizona Cardinals      1.60
10   Pittsburgh Steelers    1.71
11   Cincinnati Bengals     1.72
12   Tennessee Titans       1.74
13   Miami Dolphins         1.78
14   New England Patriots   1.79
15   New York Giants        1.81
16   Atlanta Falcons        1.82
17   Buffalo Bills          1.84
18   Washington Redskins    1.97
19   Cleveland Browns       1.99
20   Indianapolis Colts     2.02
21   Kansas City Chiefs     2.02
22   Houston Texans         2.04
23   Dallas Cowboys         2.08
24   Oakland Raiders        2.15
25   Jacksonville Jaguars   2.16
26   Baltimore Ravens       2.18
27   San Diego Chargers     2.23
28   San Francisco 49ers    2.23
29   New Orleans Saints     2.24
30   Tampa Bay Buccaneers   2.33
31   Detroit Lions          2.35
32   Chicago Bears          2.41
(these are from pro football reference, my models are still too wacky to trust.)


If the Rams played the Rams, the game would end in a scoreless tie.
 

Drakeon

Member
Halo acquired! Forgot to load it up before I left home like a jackass though. I'll be on later tonight. Can't wait to play with you guys! Bread , Boban , Drake, everyone else, but not Mech! Definetly not mech! Gonna ignore his game invites!
ENpw6.gif

I've got Class tonight, so I'll be busy until 10:30ish PST. I should be free for most of tomorrow night though.
 

Man God

Non-Canon Member
Bold Prediction: Matt Stafford will be the QB in Denver next season.

Bold Prediction: Denver trades a 5th round pick for JAY CUTLER tomorrow. Manning comes down with mono or some lame injury excuse so he doesn't get benched. Denver wins the Super Bowl.
 

Man God

Non-Canon Member
Who the hell would sign Jay Cutler?

1. He's the ultimate coach killer, so a particularly crafty GM with a coach he wants to get rid of but has the favor of the ownership.

2. He's still better than what, 15 QBs that have started this year? 20?
 

Draxal

Member
Didn't realize the Giants had such a good TO margin. Not surprising to see the Eagles buck conventional wisdom. Chip goes his own way

CSXU-9yWoAA5zDb.jpg:large

Giants are insanely good at creating turnovers ... which is kinda weird as I never associated Spags defense with turnovers.

It's also been helped a ton by bad qb play (Cassel/Cousins/Bradford).
 

Man God

Non-Canon Member
Not that QBR is a great stat at all but...

As much as Bradford has struggled throwing deep in years past, his real issue this season has been in the intermediate range, on those throws from 11 to 20 yards downfield. Bradford’s QBR on those throws is a league-worst 5.8. Five of Bradford’s 10 picks have come on throws in that range. And do you know who had the best QBR in the league on throws in that split between 2013 and 2014? Why, it was Nick Foles, who posted a 97.5 QBR on passes in that 10-yard range! That’s an enormous swing. Sanchez, for what it’s worth, was at a 76.7 QBR across 77 attempts on those same passes last year.

Lolford.
 

Godslay

Banned
Take away the garbage time 14 the Chiefs scored and the Packers are leading in ppg. Still a meaningless stats.

And if want to talk about bad offenses, Broncos have yet to play a good one as well. The Chiefs I guess would be the best offense they played?

If it's meaningless why did you trot it out?

Why should we take away points given up directly by the GB defense? When the points PM gave up through pick 6s count against the defense? Doesn't make sense.

Fine, take away the 14 points given up by the Packers D against the Chiefs in garbage time. That puts them at 87 according to my math. Which is still more than Den. in total points over 6 games, and in ppg average.

As far as offenses they've played, Raiders are probably the best O that Den has faced while SD is probably the best O GB has played.

It's not like either team has played a list of world beaters:
GB Opponents:
Bears, Hawks, Chiefs, 9ers, Rams, Chargers
Opponents Average Points Per Drive on the season: 1.65

Den Opponents:
Ravens, Chiefs, Lions, Vikings, Raiders, Browns
Opponents Average Points Per Drive on the season: 1.76

Mostly shit on both sides. GB is a 3 point favorite, on the road against Den. Nobody is expecting a win. Most of us Broncos fans seem to be hoping for a close game, or any sign of life from the offense.
 
It's misleading.

If you cut out Manning's pick 6s, then the Denver defense has given up 81 points to opposing teams. Which amounts to 13.5 ppg. Far below the 16.8 ppg GB has given up.

As far as the Den O, I guess well have to see what happens. Looks shitty in the stats, plenty of bad, but it hasn't been all bad.

did you also take out greenbays potential turnovers leading to points?
 

Godslay

Banned
did you also take out greenbays potential turnovers leading to points?

Pick sixes count against a defense, even though they are not on the field and have no power to stop them.

As far as I know Rodgers doesn't have any pick sixes.

Doesn't make sense to fold in turnovers leading to points, as the points given up are on the defense. I guess I could see if it was a short field, then that might make sense.
 

bionic77

Member
Checked out the box score.

Got damn Tristan Thompson got away with a fucking robbery. And he did it to a dying city.

What a greedy fat fuck.
 
Checked out the box score.

Got damn Tristan Thompson got away with a fucking robbery. And he did it to a dying city.

What a greedy fat fuck.

He did it to Dan Gilbert who knows what he is paying him is a drop in the bucket for him with what Lebron has brought him in value. I mean he's still more productive than Steve Nash in L.A was
 
Kids can't trick or treat, can't watch the World Series without the TV breaking, can't sneak Playboy's full of attractive nude women under their parents' noses.

This country is going to Hell in a handbasket. And I don't know if even Tebow can't stop it :(
 

bionic77

Member
He did it to Dan Gilbert who knows what he is paying him is a drop in the bucket for him with what Lebron has brought him in value. I mean he's still more productive than Steve Nash in L.A was
He overpaid him because he is Lebron's friend. Its only 3 quarters into game 1 but the dude is a zero on offense and I don't see him dominating the boards the way he did in the finals against the small ball Warriors.

It is kind of weird how pro-Lebron media members will spin that as something good about Lebron. Granted if I was him I would do the same thing if I could get away with it, but generally in sports you get fucking destroyed in the media and with the fans if you do anything other than try hard and be clutch on the court.
 
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