The schedule isnt an excuse, it's a frame for the statistics. The Houston Texans faced worse defenses week in and week out than the Chiefs. Both teams played weak teams, because the NFL is full of weak defense. But if both QBs have similar stats, then that should push the edge towards the QB that faced better defenses.
Even if you add 5 average games to Hoyer's resume, he'd have more TDs and Passing yards, but have fewer total yards, a worse completion percentage, a higher INT % on with more INTs, a lower QB rating and fewer yards per attempt.
I'll agree that they are pretty similar, but I still think the Chiefs have a clear edge in nearly every individual aspect of the game, not including STs. The Chiefs are not particularly good there and I'm honestly not sure how the Texans are.
They've faced better defenses, but they've also lost to those better defenses.
The Bengals, Broncos, Chicago, and Vikings all beat the Chiefs. All good defenses. Those four teams when defeating the Chiefs held them to 18 ppg. Not great. They did beat Houston, so there is that going for them.
When they beat Denver in the second game, they had a Manning that couldn't throw the ball and turned it over 4 times on the worst performance I've ever seen by a Bronco QB, Tebow included. That really set the defense up for defeat, as there were so many short fields it was easy mode.
I'd also say that KC didn't face a decent offense the entire year, aside from maybe Green Bay, and the Bengals. Which again, they lost both of those games. You could consider the Raiders as well I suppose which they won both times. Shouldn't have won the first time, but Carr threw that game away.
Houston is in the same boat. They faced three good defenses (Carolina, Bengals, Jets), and came out 2-1. But also didn't really face any great offensive team, aside from maybe Cam and Brady (both Ls), maybe Bortles just looking at the numbers. Lost 2 out of those 4, and really the Jags aren't a good team overall, but their offense was decent overall.
I still think that the margin between Smith and Hoyer is thin. Smith is more consistent, a bit more conservative, more seasoned. Maybe that makes him better. I don't know.
Only if he can defeat David Bowie in the Concussion Protocol Labyrinth
Fulton seemed fine against Oakland. Plus, if you have to lose a linemen against Houston, the center is the one you want to lose.
I guess we'll see.