Take a quick look at the NHL standings of the past few seasons, and you will notice that the difference between playoff teams and those who missed is razor thin. Last season, the Boston Bruins missed by three points in the East, while the 2013-14 Stanley Cup champion Los Angeles Kings fell just two points short. The Dallas Stars scored the most goals in the league but ended on the outside looking in.
Of the many factors that affect whether a team slips into the postseason, strength of division is rarely considered. But it is worth asking whether the Stars would have missed the playoffs if they were in the Pacific instead of the Central, or if the Ottawa Senators would have been a feel-good story had they played against the tougher Metro.
When considering expectations for 2015-16, fans should factor in the division when forming expectations. Which division will be the hardest this season? Let's take a look:
1. Central
2014-15 playoff teams: St. Louis Blues, Nashville Predators, Chicago Blackhawks, Minnesota Wild, Winnipeg Jets
Toughest matchup: Chicago Blackhawks
It may be hard to believe, but the division that sent five teams to the postseason got even better this offseason.
The two bottom teams, Dallas and Colorado, made significant improvements. The Stars acquired scoring winger Patrick Sharp to flank mega-scorers Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn, and added defenseman Johnny Oduya as the shutdown blueliner they were missing. Dallas already led the Western Conference in even-strength goals last season but struggled in goal. General manager Jim Nill signed veteran goalie Antti Niemi to provide stability at the position.
The Avalanche dealt away two-way center Ryan O'Reilly, but they replaced his production with free-agent center Carl Soderberg and made major upgrades on their blue line by acquiring promising Russian Nikita Zadorov and veteran Francois Beauchemin. Not to mention that former No. 1 overall pick Nathan MacKinnon will start to enter his prime this season.
While the Stars and Avs loaded up, the Blues, Predators, Wild and Jets mostly stood pat in the free agent and trade market. But that doesn't mean they got weaker. St. Louis won the division in 2014-15 and kept all their major pieces in place outside of T.J. Oshie, who they traded to Washington. The Preds didn't add or subtract much in the offseason, but young center Filip Forsberg and former fourth overall draft pick Seth Jones are both primed to take the next step to stardom.
The Wild and Jets are vulnerable, but they still have a good chance to return to the playoffs. Consider that Winnipeg ranked second in the NHL in the puck possession statistic Fenwick close, taking 54.1 percent of the shot attempts at even strength, and Minnesota was unstoppable after acquiring goalie Devan Dubnyk, who they re-signed.
The Central might be the most challenging division before we even consider the defending Stanley Cup champions. The Blackhawks may have dealt away forwards Brandon Saad and Sharp and lost defenseman Oduya to free agency, but they restocked in the Saad deal by acquiring two-way center Artem Anisimov and offensively gifted winger Marko Dano; this is in addition to signing Russian import Artemi Panarin, who some believe will be in the Calder Trophy mix. They appear to be as strong as they were last season, though they might have an even deeper forward group with the acquisitions of Ryan Garbutt and Jeremy Morin.
The unfortunate thing about the Central is that at least two teams in this division will miss the playoffs despite having postseason-worthy rosters.
Code:
Central Division Possession, Standings Points
TEAM FENWICK CLOSE RANK STANDINGS POINTS
St. Louis Blues 52.3% 9 109
Nashville Predators 53.6% 5 104
Chicago Blackhawks 53.0% 7 102
Minnesota Wild 52.0% 11 100
Winnipeg Jets 54.1% 2 99
Dallas Stars 52.3% 8 92
Colorado Avalanche 43.8% 29 90
Average 51.6% 10.1 99.0
2. Metropolitan
2014-15 playoff teams: New York Rangers, Washington Capitals, New York Islanders, Pittsburgh Penguins
Toughest matchup: Washington Capitals
Like the Central, it's a shame that at least one really good team will probably get left out of the postseason party. There are several teams in the Metro who believe they are ready to win the Stanley Cup, and made win-now moves.
One of those clubs missed the playoffs last year: The Columbus Blue Jackets. After acquiring forward Brandon Saad from Chicago, the Jackets have the rest of the division sweating. Not only has Columbus built a tough group of forwards, led by top scorer Ryan Johansen and hard-nosed center Brandon Dubinsky, they have one of the elite goaltenders in the NHL in Sergei Bobrovsky. The Blue Jackets were probably a playoff-worthy team last season but had bad luck. According to the website Man Games Lost, they lost the most games to injury in the league.
The Penguins and Capitals made important additions, too. Pittsburgh acquired one of the NHL's best scoring wingers in Phil Kessel in a trade with the Toronto Maple Leafs and already announced he will play alongside Sidney Crosby. The move turned the Penguins from a team that looked like it was fading from the front page to a legitimate Cup contender once again.
Under coach Barry Trotz, Washington put their name back in the hat for the East's best team, as it finished 2014-15 with 45 wins. The Caps may be able to top that total, adding one of the NHL's best even-strength scorers in T.J. Oshie, who ranked 23rd in even-strength points per 60 minutes with 2.25. Adding Justin Williams to the mix gives the Caps an additional strong possession player with winning experience.
Washington gets the slight edge over the New York Rangers for the hardest matchup in the division because of their offseason moves, but the Blue Shirts haven't dropped off at all. Henrik Lundqvist is still an elite goaltender, and the addition of Keith Yandle from last year's deadline move could add pop to their power play. Don't sleep on the Islanders, either. They took a huge step forward in 2014-15 and are still growing. Scoring forwards Brock Nelson and Ryan Strome are just starting their prime years and John Tavares has established himself as one of the best scorers in the NHL.
While you could reasonably see Carolina improving, the bottom of the Metro isn't good enough to make it the NHL's toughest division. The New Jersey Devils are likely in tear-down mode and are among the favorites for the league's worst record, while the Flyers are lacking the depth to be a contender.
Code:
Metro Division Possession, Standings Points
TEAM FENWICK CLOSE RANK STANDINGS POINTS
New York Rangers 49.7% 20 113
Washington Capitals 51.8% 13 101
New York Islanders 54.3% 1 101
Pittsburgh Penguins 53.8% 3 98
Columbus Blue Jackets 46.0% 27 89
Philadelphia Flyers 48.6% 21 84
New Jersey Devils 47.0% 24 78
Carolina Hurricanes 52.0% 12 71
Average 50.4% 15.1 92.0
3. Pacific
2014-15 playoff teams: Anaheim Ducks, Vancouver Canucks, Calgary Flames
Toughest matchup: Anaheim Ducks
The Pacific Division is harder to predict than any of the others. While the Central and Metro are filled with teams that are virtual locks to be contenders, the Pacific sports several clubs that could easily be at the top or bottom.
The Vancouver Canucks, Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers all have the potential to finish second behind the stacked Anaheim Ducks. They also have the potential to be among the teams with the highest chances of landing the No. 1 draft pick.
Vancouver made the playoffs last year, but made some highly questionable offseason moves. The Canucks traded solid forward Nick Bonino for Penguins fourth-liner Brandon Sutter and sent goalie Eddie Lack to Carolina, leaving coach Willie Desjardins to rely on an aging Ryan Miller. Still, the Sedin Twins are scoring wizards who are capable of keeping their team afloat.
A terrific trade by the Flames to acquire Dougie Hamilton, and the presence of 2014 third overall pick Sam Bennett should make Calgary better. However, the Flames ranked 26th in Fenwick close last season, and were outscored at even strength. It seems more likely that they will improve than fall off, but it is far from a sure thing.
Edmonton hit the lottery -- literally. The Oilers drafted the league's next generational player Connor McDavid No. 1 overall, and acquired a very promising goaltender from the Rangers, in Cam Talbot. While the Oilers also added solid power-play defenseman Andrej Sekera, their depth players on the blue line are weak, and they still lack two-way forwards. But a slip in the standings by the Canucks or Flames and big rookie campaign from McDavid could open the door to the Oilers making the postseason for the first time since 2006.
The Kings had some bad luck, winning just three of 11 overtime games, but were ranked sixth in the NHL in Fenwick close. That hints at a bounce back to being a serious contender. The additions of Milan Lucic and Christian Ehrhoff should fill in some gaps.
Despite many outsiders calling for a tear-down, there's an argument that San Jose is primed for a return to their winning ways. Despite a group of aging forwards, the Sharks added Paul Martin to their blue line and still sport several of the league's best scorers in Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski. They may not be a real Cup contender, but also won't be giving away free points either.
Arizona's presence drags the strength of the Pacific down significantly. The Coyotes finished with the second worst record in the NHL last season, and are still likely to be focused on the future -- which means aiming for projected top draft pick Auston Matthews (an Arizona native, coincidentally).
Code:
Pacific Division Possession, Standings Points
TEAM FENWICK CLOSE RANK STANDINGS POINTS
Anaheim Ducks 51.5% 14 109
Vancouver Canucks 50.7% 18 101
Calgary Flames 46.2% 26 97
Los Angeles Kings 53.1% 6 95
San Jose Sharks 51.5% 15 89
Edmonton Oilers 47.3% 23 62
Arizona Coyotes 46.3% 25 56
Average 49.5% 18.1 87.0
4. Atlantic
2014-15 playoff teams: Montreal Canadiens, Tampa Bay Lightning, Detroit Red Wings, Ottawa Senators
Toughest matchup: Tampa Bay Lightning
The runaway winner for weakest division last season will be again this year, but the Atlantic will not be as lackluster, largely because of Buffalo Sabres GM Tim Murray.
The Sabres were thrilled to draft center Jack Eichel with the No. 2 overall pick, and they celebrated by trading for Avalanche center Ryan O'Reilly and goalie Robin Lehner. Murray wasn't finished there, as he acquired free agent defenseman Cody Franson. This is all on top of dealing for 30-goal scorer Evander Kane at last year's deadline and hiring Cup-winning coach Dan Bylsma. With so many inexperienced players in key roles, it is hard to say the Sabres will be a playoff team. They would have to make a jump of nearly 50 points in the standings to do so. But to say they will be improved would be a gross understatement.
The Florida Panthers may also make the Atlantic a little tougher than expected. Though they missed the postseason, the Cats have one of the most impressive groups of young players in the NHL. They sport last year's Calder Trophy winner Aaron Ekblad, and the next great two-way center in Aleksander Barkov. Are they ready to compete for the Stanley Cup? Probably not. But the Panthers are on the rise.
Aside from the Lightning, who are favorites to return to the Cup final, the rest of the division is filled with middling teams. The Red Wings, Bruins and Senators either were stagnant or got worse in the offseason. Boston made a number of questionable moves, highlighted by trading Dougie Hamilton and signing Matt Beleskey.
The Canadiens are the most intriguing. The Habs were carried by their goaltender Carey Price, who took home the Vezina and Hart Trophies for good reason. But most other metrics pointed to Montreal being an average team, ranking 18th in Fenwick close and 17th in even-strength goals, with just 145. If Price slips at all or gets hurt, the Canadiens could suffer a huge drop from first place. They also signed Alexander Semin, the ultimate boom-or-bust signing of the summer.
Finally, the Maple Leafs, who were offseason winners by hiring Mike Babcock, openly admit there may be some tough times coming, even if they aren't in contention for the most lottery balls.
If you are picking the Sabres, Panthers or Leafs as a team to exceed expectations, you may end up being right. Not just because of Tim Murray's wild offseason, but because the weak Atlantic opens the door for a bottom feeder from last year to make a big jump.
Code:
Atlantic Division Possession, Standings Points
TEAM FENWICK CLOSE RANK STANDINGS POINTS
Montreal Canadiens 50.7% 17 110
Tampa Bay Lightning 53.7% 4 108
Detroit Red Wings 52.1% 10 100
Ottawa Senators 47.8% 22 99
Boston Bruins 50.8% 16 96
Florida Panthers 50.1% 19 91
Toronto Maple Leafs 45.4% 28 68
Buffalo Sabres 39.0% 30 54
Average 48.7% 18.3 90.8
