What follows is my attempt to rank the top 30 NHL draft prospects of the past five years, evaluated based on perspectives when these players were draft-eligible and ignoring what has transpired since.
I realize players such as Michael Dal Colle, Sean Monahan and Morgan Rielly are not listed. That's a combination of this being a "best of the best" list and my reservations about them, relative to the elite players I had ranked at the very top at the time of their draft.
While I try my best to view these prospects through the perspective of where they were as draft prospects, it is obviously hard to battle hindsight. Additionally, I'm accounting for the changes in ranking philosophy that I have made over the years:
However, this isn't about the details of what goes on in my brain. Rather, this is to give readers an idea of how the best prospects of the past few years rate against each other. From a class-by-class perspective, there are five from the Class of 2012, six from 2013, seven from 2014, six from 2015 and six from this year's draft class.
Where do Patrik Laine, Auston Matthews & Co. rank against their peers from recent years? Here we go:
1. Connor McDavid, 2015: McDavid was one of the best prospects in the history of the game. He wasn't in a different galaxy than Jack Eichel in his draft year or some of the top names in recent years, but there was some noticeable separation. He distinguished himself at every level and tournament and has continued to do so since joining the Edmonton Oilers.
2. Patrik Laine, 2016: Laine has done nothing but dominate for the past season-and-a-half, and he nudged himself just ahead of Matthews as the top 2016 prospect. He's a big, strong winger with an elite combination of offensive tools, including his hands, hockey sense and shot. NHL fans will get their first look at Laine when he plays for Finland at the upcoming World Cup of Hockey. What pushes him over Matthews -- and Nathan MacKinnon -- for me is how unique he is in terms of his skill set and level of performance. The puck is usually glued to his stick, and when he decides to let it go, it's setting up either a Grade A chance or a howitzer toward the net.
3. Nathan MacKinnon, 2013: MacKinnon put up 1.7 points per game and 4.6 shots per game in the QMJHL during his draft season, all while being two weeks away from sliding into the following year's draft class, based on his birth date. One of the best skaters I have ever seen as a first-year draft-eligible player, MacKinnon didn't have the elite east-west game of some other prospects in this group, but the way he could create chances out of nothing with his speed and skill was stunning.
4. Auston Matthews, 2016: The pride of Scottsdale, Arizona, is a player I have followed closely for many years, and I continue to be amazed by the skill level he brings to the table. He was outstanding in the top Switzerland league this past season, and he was one of the USA's best players at the IIHF world championships. His abilities as a goal scorer and a playmaker are both of the highest grades, and he should immediately step into the NHL next season as a top-six forward.
5. Jack Eichel, 2015: Given that people tend to skip the intro, I'm going to assume many Buffalo Sabres fans have already stopped reading this and are sending me hate tweets in a blind rage. For those still reading, let me put in an important reminder: This ranking is about where players were as draft prospects. As I noted a year ago, I had Eichel behind MacKinnon as draft prospects, and I had Eichel a hair over Matthews. At that time, Matthews was slightly ahead on talent, but Eichel's great draft season nudged him over; given that Matthews just had a great draft season, that flipped it here. In reality, Eichel had one of the best teenage seasons in the NHL in recent memory by a non-Sidney Crosby/Alex Ovechkin player, so if you asked me right now to pick a player for my franchise, I might nudge toward Eichel over Matthews. Production over potential and all that. In terms of where the industry has it on the question of who they'd build a franchise around, I'd say a slight majority of NHL people I've talked to favor Eichel over Matthews, but there is certainly a sizable (and growing) Matthews cohort.
6. Jesse Puljujarvi, 2016: Puljujarvi was the MVP of the 2016 IIHF world junior championships and one of the most impressive prospects to ever come out of Finland. He is very well thought of, as there is a group of hockey operations people in the NHL who feel Puljujarvi should be with Laine and Matthews in the discussion about No. 1. He's the complete package in terms of his skating, skill, shot, hockey IQ and frame, and he has impressed everywhere he has gone the past few years. He has the potential to be a star.
7. Jonathan Drouin, 2013: Let's forget about the whirlwind that has been Drouin's past few years, including a falling out with Tampa Bay and a dip in performance, followed by an AHL reassignment, followed by a resurgence in the playoffs in which he looked like one of the league's top forwards. When he was a prospect, Drouin was mostly the latter: a dynamic, playmaking winger who bled offensive hockey sense. Mind you, his all-around game was a significant issue back then as well, but with time, it might catch up.
8. Seth Jones, 2013: It's easy to forget over a few years how well-thought-of Jones was leading up to the 2013 draft, with some ranking him first overall in that class. He's one of the best defenseman to ever go through the USNTDP, right up there with first overall pick Erik Johnson (2006). Jones presented an all-around tool kit of mobility, size, vision and great defensive play. Since then, Jones has been up and down, including being traded, but he has really taken off since becoming the go-to guy in Columbus.
9. Aaron Ekblad, 2014: Known during his draft as the man-child due to how physically advanced he was, Ekblad was one of the best defensemen in the CHL during his 17-year-old season, and he was a top-pairing defender for Canada at the WJC. He's a very smart two-way player whose offensive touch has arguably improved in his time in Florida.
10. Mikhail Grigorenko, 2012: I was the president of the Mikhail Grigorenko fan club in 2012 (which is still accepting members, by the way, but attendance has dipped lately). In hindsight, that understandably looks horrific. At the time, though, I saw a dominant playmaker who could score and a big-framed player who had been great at nearly every level. Notably, he tailed off significantly toward the end of his draft season. Since then, he hasn't developed a ton, particularly in his game away from the puck.
11. Aleksander Barkov, 2013: Barkov was a force during his draft season, as a 20 minutes-per-game center in the top Finnish league and a top-six forward in the WJC, all while being days away (via his birth date) from being in the 2014 class. A player with elite IQ and great hands, albeit with lackluster speed, he has been a dominant two-way center since he made his way into the NHL, and he could end up one of the best Finnish players of all time if he continues to track at this level.
12. Valeri Nichushkin, 2013: Nichushkin has had a real rough go of it the past few years in the NHL, between injuries, general on-ice struggles and failing to get the trust of his coach at times, but when he was a prospect, there were some NHL teams salivating at the thought of drafting him. Big men with elite speed and plus hands don't come along often, and he had made plays in the amateur ranks and KHL that few others could.
13. Nail Yakupov, 2012: The former No. 1 overall pick was a very solid player during his draft season, but for reasons we discussed earlier this season, he was by no means a "wow" level prospect -- just a victim of a subpar draft class. That said, Yakupov was a dynamic scorer who could burn past OHL defenders or deke around them and beat goalies from long distance. He just hasn't developed as expected.
14. Alex Galchenyuk, 2012: Galchenyuk was one of the most impressive 16-year-olds I can remember. If he had stayed healthy in his draft season and continued to develop at a standard pace, I think he would have been a moderately easy choice at No. 1. But alas, a week into the season, he tore a knee ligament and was not seen again until the final minutes of the OHL season. Since then, he has steadily become one of Montreal's best players.
15. Sam Bennett, 2014: Bennett was fourth in the OHL in points per game as a 17-year-old, and he carried a mediocre Kingston team on his back. Bennett also showed very well at various international events in the years leading up to his draft. He brings speed, skill, intelligence and a tremendous work ethic to the table. I don't think we've seen anything close to his best days in Calgary, and I'd absolutely bank on a breakout for him in the NHL soon.
16. Mitch Marner, 2015: In his draft season, Marner was a two-points-per-game player for London in the OHL. He was -- and still is -- one of the most exciting major junior players to watch, due to how elusive and smart he is. On some of the super London teams he has played on, he has been a driver of play, and he creates a ton of scoring chances.
17. Dylan Strome, 2015: It was mildly humorous (to me, anyway) to rank Marner and Strome next to each other again, considering they've gone toe-to-toe as opponents, teammates and sometimes linemates at various events the past two years. Strome led the OHL in scoring in his draft season, then was taken third overall (behind McDavid and Eichel) by the Coyotes. He's a unique player in terms of how he handles and moves the puck and the bullet shot he possesses, even though he isn't the fastest guy on the ice.
18. William Nylander, 2014: Although Nylander has done nothing but impress in the two seasons since he was drafted, it's easy to forget the up-and-down whirlwind that was his draft season. He bounced around numerous teams, had his ice time plummet and skyrocket in the Allsvenskan and finished with a dominant performance at the world under-18 championships. I banked on the high potential two years ago, but it wasn't without reservations.
19. Sam Reinhart, 2014: Reinhart was a touted prospect for a long time, and though he never had a gigantic scoring surge (like someone such as Dylan Strome), he earned the highest praise from each of his coaching staffs and logged huge all-around minutes. Reinhart is as smart a hockey player as you'll find, with elite vision and off-puck awareness on top of quality defensive positioning.
20. Noah Hanifin, 2015: Hanifin was incredibly good in a tough NCAA conference as a draft-eligible player in 2015. He joined the college ranks extremely early after blowing away the competition at the USNTDP the season before, but to his credit, he didn't lose a step. He's one of the best skating defensemen I've seen in the past few years, on top of being a capable puck mover and a very solid defensive player.
21. Nikolaj Ehlers, 2014: A not incredibly well-known prospect who played in Switzerland's junior league in his 16-year-old season, Ehlers landed in North American with a bang, clearing 100 points in the QMJHL. His speed and skill blew everyone away, and he continued to excel as his draft season went along. Despite the relatively modest point totals, he was quite impressive this season with the Jets, and I project a big season for him in 2016-17.
22. Clayton Keller, 2016: Keller is one of the most accomplished players in the history of the USNTDP. He set a record for most assists in a season, was second in points in the season and racked up record totals in a two-season span. He's an elite playmaker with very good speed, and despite a small frame, he's decent defensively. Keller should light up college hockey next season, if he lands on campus at Boston University.
23. Ryan Murray, 2012: As a prospect, Murray was never a guy who dangled through teams and won scoring titles, but he was a positive force every shift he took, and he was one of the best two-way defenders in his time in the CHL. He's a very smart and very mobile defender. Murray had a rocky start to his NHL career, but in the second half of this past season, he started to come into his own. He will be on Team North America at the World Cup.
24. Kevin Fiala, 2014: Fiala shot straight up throughout the course of his draft season, with a solid WJC, a great second half in the SHL (in which he worked his way into scoring-line minutes) and a world championship appearance. He displayed so many great attributes, including his hands, offensive IQ and skating ability, and was quite impressive against pros for such a small, slight player. He has gotten a few small tastes of the NHL, and I expect he'll begin to push for a full-time job next fall.
25. Mathew Barzal, 2015: Barzal missed a big chunk of his draft season because of an injury, but when he was healthy, he was a dynamic passer and one of the best players at the world under-18 championships. He's so fun to watch due to his skating and hockey sense, and he is always creating space to make plays and find his teammates. Barzal turned heads immediately after being drafted and came within an inch of making the Islanders out of camp last fall.
26. Pierre-Luc Dubois, 2016: Dubois was excellent all season, but he really took off after he was shifted to center. He carried Cape Breton on his back for several months. Dubois is a very well-rounded player. He's big and smart, he can dangle, and he works as hard as anyone on the ice. Dubois' advanced defensive play could lead to his being a regular in the NHL within the next two seasons.
27. Leon Draisaitl, 2014: I wasn't as high on Draisaitl as the industry was in his draft season -- I took issue with his skating -- but he blew me away as a passer and showed the ability to make some unique offensive plays. Since then, he has played notably well, particularly the past season, and in the back of my mind, I thought maybe I should have trusted my eyes a little more in terms of the skill and IQ he flashed as a prospect.
28. Filip Forsberg, 2012: Forsberg is now one of the leading candidates for the top player from the 2012 class, but at the time, he was quite a divisive player. He was inconsistent during his draft season in the Allsvenskan, and he wasn't much of a factor at the WJC, but then he dominated at the under-18's to cap off the season. He showed enough flashes of high-end skill to combine with a big body and great work ethic and make you believe in him, and, boy, has he delivered in recent seasons.
29. Matthew Tkachuk, 2016: Tkachuk has done nothing but produce giant numbers at every level and tournament, and he put an exclamation point on the end of his season by notching more than two points per game in the OHL playoffs. He's a highly skilled playmaker who grinds for pucks. He's such a smart player on and off the puck, and he has the best chance of anyone in the 2016 class not named Laine, Matthews or Puljujarvi to make an NHL roster next season.
30. Elias Lindholm, 2013: I was a big believer in Lindholm when he was entering his draft. He has been good but not amazing during his tenure with the Hurricanes, but there was so much excitement for him coming out of Sweden. Lindholm put up ridiculous numbers for an 18-year-old, and by the time he was drafted, he had already played a season-and-a-half of high-level pro hockey -- and he had done so at a high level. There were concerns at the time about his off-puck play and whether he was explosive enough, but he was so good around the puck.
Bonus:
Nolan Patrick, 2017 draft eligible: The current No. 1 prospect for the 2017 NHL draft is not as strong as the top prospects in some recent drafts. That's not to say he isn't very good, but in Patrick, I don't see the quantity of game-breaking attributes that I see in guys such as McDavid, Matthews and MacKinnon -- "The M Squad," as some folks in the business call them (nobody calls them that ... yet!). I'd have Patrick between that group and the less impressive No. 1s, such Aaron Ekblad and Nail Yakupov. For now, he'd be right above Ekblad, which would put him ninth on this list.
