So, your vision for Nintendo is that of a Japanese Zynga.
Excellent.
No. They should have a good balance of F2P content along with their traditional packaged content.
I'm not really sure how you even got that out of my analysis?
Assuming Nintendo does this for 2DS/3DS - the system comes with some great F2P games that fill key genres - and you can still buy packaged software. It fills two key needs and Nintendo can upsell the packaged games to an audience that buys the hardware. The value of buying the device isn't simply linked to buying expensive packaged software, which means you have a shot at winning customers who never bought games in the first place.
This is really no different from where Sony and MS are headed with their consoles. Nintendo should get with the program so that people perceive the 3DS as offering more than just expensive games you can buy.
Also F2P doesn't mean the games are junk. Nintendo could do a great job doing F2P - this at least gets the userbase for their devices up which is what matters right now - Nintendo can't keep taking a huge loss to get hardware in peoples' hands. There are good studies that show the reason people pay so much for tablets is that they perceive the cheap or F2P games as making up for the additional cost. This is actually why Nintendo was able to keep the DS price so high for a long time - a lot of people were buying it to pirate software. Instead of embracing piracy, they should show people that buying a 3DS does infact give you access to a variety of free content.
I can almost assure you this is exactly what Nintendo is thinking about doing. Games like Brain Training, potentially Nintendogs, and others are ripe for F2P. They can still sell Pokemon for full price for example. They have a better shot at customers buying a 3DS with 3-4 F2P games and paying for 1-2 packaged games than just trying to drop the prices on everything and devaluing their premium software altogether.
Yeah, I'm sympathetic to where tehrik is coming from here, but I think NCL may be in an even worse position to compete directly with iOS/Android than they are to compete directly with Sony/MS for the Western core market, and that's saying a lot.
Well, this is one idea. I really think Nintendo shouldn't do it on 3DS although they probably will. My sense is that they should attempt to do it on a brand new tablet platform such as I had proposed earlier, then merge the 3DS/Wii U lines into a premium handheld device eventually.
I do think Nintendo can compete very well with iOS/Android - if they get Nintendogs, Brain Training, etc F2P and then give people the possibility of buying Pokemon and Super Mario 3D Land, the 3DS suddenly becomes a very interesting platform for a lot of people that bought the DS, bought a game or two, and pirated everything else.
But yes I agree with you - nothing is easy here - Nintendo is going to have to work extremely hard to target their audience correctly again. Nothing is easy but I think Nintendo's appeal to family is their strength and that's the market they should be going after...