Nintendo President Plays Down Sony Handset

jarrod said:
Marketshare isn't everything however. While Nintendo has lost it on the console side, their overall audience has grown thanks to handhelds, from N64/GBC being about 60 million in 2001 to GC/GBA already at 75 million in just 3 years.

But they also lost marketshare from the SNES/GB, so what's it all mean then? I believe they were at over 100M for those two combined. Their fanbase has been eroding. Yes, recently it has been "moving" to the GB, but only in the sense that the GB market is expanding just like the console market. So it will get bigger each gen. But it's not like that bodes well for the future. It means they're all but lost in the console market now, so what happens if Sony now starts stealing their GB fanbase with the PSP? The GB's only got that much of an installed base due to the lack of competition. If it faces stiff competition and starts losing sales, then Nintendo's marketshare starts plunging again.

And while the market at large has grown substantially this generetion, it's also lost diversity. Console gaming more than ever is now catering to a specific base... the industry is actually getting farther from reaching the truly mainstream audience film, music and books enjoy.
Where do you get this notion? The market is expanding, no? Who's the main audience they're missing out on? Look at the general demographic for the industry, 5-50 is pretty much the age group. Who the hell are they missing? The only thing the gaming industry has ever really been missing has been women. Most young males play video games. They don't all own them, but I think it's safe to say that over 70% of young males are gamers. But that's the way it's always been. Most game designers are male, so games end up catering to us mostly. The few attempts at "girly" games are usually pretty lame.

I think modern gaming libraries are incredibly diverse. Compared to the NES, Genny and SNES, we've got every kind of game you can imagine. And it's way better than the Atari days when half the games were puzzlers. They aren't all mainstream, but they do exist. I think diversity is at its peak. Sure, the blockbusters are using fairly generic and repetitive formulas, but that's been the way the industry has worked since Day 1, and it's much the way the movie and music industry works as well. Whatever is hot gets the most play.

So I really don't see how things have changed much. This isn't the first time Nintendo's used that copout, and it won't be the last time either. They really need to hire the Iraqi Minister of Defense to handle their spin for them:
muhammedsaeedalsahaf.jpg

"Our marketshare is not eroding. We're just catering to fans of simple games. Don't worry, there'll be more of them once the infidels are destroyed. Touchscreen and stylus is teh new Pong paddle."

PEACE.
 
I think some people are missing the big picture here--the DS is targeted at specific audience that doesn't include yet does not exclude the kind of gamers you see on this board. If you think Nintendo is being foolish, fine. What I don't understand is why people keep acting like Nintendo is trying to force a certain style of game on consumers--you have other options elsewhere. Buy your PSP's, but realize that in the end there won't be that much overlap in terms of the consumers that Nintendo and Sony persuade. I really don't think Iwata is of base, but we will see for sure in the next year.
 
ge-man said:
I think some people are missing the big picture here--the DS is targeted at specific audience that doesn't include yet does not exclude the kind of gamers you see on this board. If you think Nintendo is being foolish, fine. What I don't understand is why people keep acting like Nintendo is trying to force a certain style of game on consumers--you have other options elsewhere. Buy your PSP's, but realize that in the end there won't be that much overlap in terms of the consumers that Nintendo and Sony persuade. I really don't think Iwata is of base, but we will see for sure in the next year.

I think that the biggest problem is that Nintendo actually thinks it isn't competing directly with PSP. And this is wrong. It doesn't matter what "new gamers" you think your little handheld is going to target, you're both vying for the same market that has always existed. From there you hope to expand on said market, but they are directly competing. And if Nintendo continues to push aside the threat, they really are going to be in for a rude wake up call.
 
Amir0x said:
I think that the biggest problem is that Nintendo actually thinks it isn't competing directly with PSP. And this is wrong. It doesn't matter what "new gamers" you think your little handheld is going to target, you're both vying for the same market that has always existed. From there you hope to expand on said market, but they are directly competing. And if Nintendo continues to push aside the threat, they really are going to be in for a rude wake up call.

Ah, the next GB. Which we'll get specs of, this coming Spring.
 
Well, what else do people want them to do now? They already released the DS. They can't release anything else for awhile, and I doubt Nintendo is prepared to make the kind of hardware Sony is making. Do want Nintendo to say that they fucked up or that they are scared? Put anybody else in Nintendo position and they will say the same things--a company not confident in it's products will go down even faster than one that appears dillusional.
 
OG_Original Gamer said:
Ah, the next GB. Which we'll get specs of, this coming Spring.

We will see about that. There has been nothing but speculation on when GB2 would be unveiled. But I already predicted that if we did have a GB2 next year, the DS will effectively be dead (within the year 05) and the PSP will take the rings until GB2 comes out to compete with it.
 
jarrod said:
To get into lifecycles a little more closely...

GB (1st)~ 1989-1994
GB (2nd)~ 1995-1999
GBC~ 1998-2002
GBA~ 2001-2005 (probably)
DS~ 2004+

Where is GBA SP though? You list two different versions of GB, but not of GBA?
 
This is the way I see it:

If the DS is successful, but Sony's presence grows tremendously in the handheld arena (like 12 million PSPs sold before the end of the calendar year), we'll see Game Boy Next in the first half of 2006.

If the DS fails big, and the GBA can't do much to stop the PSP, then we'll see Game Boy Next maybe late 2005.

If the DS is incredibly successful, and the PSP fails, it will replace the Game Boy line, and may even be renamed Game Boy DS eventually.
 
AniHawk said:
This is the way I see it:

If the DS is successful, but Sony's presence grows tremendously in the handheld arena (like 12 million PSPs sold before the end of the calendar year), we'll see Game Boy Next in the first half of 2006.

If the DS fails big, and the GBA can't do much to stop the PSP, then we'll see Game Boy Next maybe late 2005.

If the DS is incredibly successful, and the PSP fails, it will replace the Game Boy line, and may even be renamed Game Boy DS eventually.

You are right. The brand name Game Boy is still huge.
 
OG_Original Gamer said:
Ah, the next GB. Which we'll get specs of, this coming Spring.

Do people really believe the next GB will match PSP's specs? PSP is powerful and cheap but that comes at a price for Sony and Nintendo can't afford that risk with Gameboy.
 
Amir0x said:
I think that the biggest problem is that Nintendo actually thinks it isn't competing directly with PSP. And this is wrong. It doesn't matter what "new gamers" you think your little handheld is going to target, you're both vying for the same market that has always existed. From there you hope to expand on said market, but they are directly competing. And if Nintendo continues to push aside the threat, they really are going to be in for a rude wake up call.


Don't take Nintendo PR for what they actually think. They know they are competing with the PSP more than you do. So much so that Reggie confessed before the American launch that they were initially targetting a mid-teen to early 20 demographic. Incidentally, Playstations's strongest market.
 
paul777 said:
Don't take Nintendo PR for what they actually think. They know they are competing with the PSP more than you do. So much so that Reggie confessed before the American launch that they were initially targetting a mid-teen to early 20 demographic. Incidentally, Playstations's strongest market.

Oh, I'm fully aware that they KNOW they are. But they should SAY they are because it leads to bad perceptions.
 
Insertia said:
Do people really believe the next GB will match PSP's specs? PSP is powerful and cheap but that comes at a price for Sony and Nintendo can't afford that risk with Gameboy.

In two years from now, I'd be surprised if they don't.

Fact: As big as the games market is, it's nowhere near as big as the rest of the entertainment products (ie. music and movies). Also, you have to realize (come ON people) that when Nintendo talks like this, they're taking on consideration mostly Japan. Japanese games market is consistently shrinking year to year and come out in full force only for Pokemons, Final Fantasies and Dragon Warriors.

The stylus is more intuitive than a controller. You use a pen daily. You know what it does. It's one of the most simple interfaces there is. Controllers on the other hand are not only constantly changing but have more functions each generation. There is a reason why the Cube's controllers have a large green A button. It centers you, everything else revolves around it for this very issue. Simplicity.
 
Amir0x said:
Oh, I'm fully aware that they KNOW they are. But they should SAY they are because it leads to bad perceptions.

But that swings both ways, Sony's on (multiple) records that they aren't in direct competition with the DS. Why should Nintendo blink first?
 
Pimpwerx said:
But they also lost marketshare from the SNES/GB, so what's it all mean then? I believe they were at over 100M for those two combined. I believe they were at over 100M for those two combined.
Well, there's some unusal overlap there. We don't have the numbers to really break down GB sales pre and post 1994 (which was the divide between it's two distinct lifecycles). Also, SNES had a longer shelf life than N64 by a good 2-4 years overall.... no denying Nintendo's fumbled their consoles more and more, but marketshare isn't the final measure of success either.


Pimpwerx said:
Their fanbase has been eroding. Yes, recently it has been "moving" to the GB, but only in the sense that the GB market is expanding just like the console market. So it will get bigger each gen. But it's not like that bodes well for the future. It means they're all but lost in the console market now, so what happens if Sony now starts stealing their GB fanbase with the PSP? The GB's only got that much of an installed base due to the lack of competition. If it faces stiff competition and starts losing sales, then Nintendo's marketshare starts plunging again.
Sure it's a possibilty, but it's a bit beside the point. Nintendo's not going to expand their audience by targeting Sony's base (like Microsoft's doing), they're looking into actually expanding into new demographics.

It's worth pointing out that Sony's not targeting the youth focused GB base with PSP either (at least for the foreseeable future, long term may be different) but they're looking to move their casual PS2 audience into handhelds.



Pimpwerx said:
Where do you get this notion? The market is expanding, no? Who's the main audience they're missing out on? Look at the general demographic for the industry, 5-50 is pretty much the age group. Who the hell are they missing? The only thing the gaming industry has ever really been missing has been women. Most young males play video games. They don't all own them, but I think it's safe to say that over 70% of young males are gamers. But that's the way it's always been. Most game designers are male, so games end up catering to us mostly. The few attempts at "girly" games are usually pretty lame.
PSone actually claimed something like a 40% female audience in Japan. Kids don't bother with consoles these days, they all have their own GBAs. Console gaming right now pretty much finds itself catering to an overwhelmingly 16-25 year old male audience, the vast majority of it caucasian and heterosexual. That's not diversity, PS2 as a leading platform seems to actually have a less diverse audience than PS1 or NES/FC did, despite having a larger audience.

There's been lots of talk about gaming "growing up" and all the progress Sony made on opening it up to adult markets... but what that line of thought ignores is that this older market has for the most part grown alongside gaming. Most 25 year olds with a PS2 or Xbox likely had a NES, SNES or Genesis as a kid. What Sony's really done is successfully keep an existing market interested in gaming (while Nintendo's been cultivating new gamers in the youth market). Famicom/NES and PlayStation had an almost universal appeal though, that PS2 and Xbox lack... and I'd say their userbases reflect that.


Pimpwerx said:
I think modern gaming libraries are incredibly diverse. Compared to the NES, Genny and SNES, we've got every kind of game you can imagine. And it's way better than the Atari days when half the games were puzzlers. They aren't all mainstream, but they do exist. I think diversity is at its peak. Sure, the blockbusters are using fairly generic and repetitive formulas, but that's been the way the industry has worked since Day 1, and it's much the way the movie and music industry works as well. Whatever is hot gets the most play.
There's room in gaming to expand and cater to niche, specialty and botique markets too, it just isn't for some reason. Gaming just doesn't have the diversity of content that film, music, literature and other media do, hence it doesn't have the diversity of audience those fields enjoy. Part of this is likely due to production costs and risk.... in some ways gaming is "stuck" catering to it's audience, while musicians or writers have much more room to explore. I'd personally love an "indie" game scene, but it just isn't happening.


Pimpwerx said:
So I really don't see how things have changed much. This isn't the first time Nintendo's used that copout, and it won't be the last time either. They really need to hire the Iraqi Minister of Defense to handle their spin for them.
I really don't see how I can take you seriously when the level of discussion degrades into this. Clever.
 
xsarien said:
But that swings both ways, Sony's on (multiple) records that they aren't in direct competition with the DS. Why should Nintendo blink first?

Well I believe they said it [at first], but I don't think they have said such a thing in a long, long time. It's fairly obvious to everyone now they feel they are directly competing with Nintendo, and they are not changing that stance at all.
 
Kiriku said:
Where is GBA SP though? You list two different versions of GB, but not of GBA?
I wasn't listing versions, but lifecycles. GB had two when you look at it closely.


Insertia said:
Do people really believe the next GB will match PSP's specs? PSP is powerful and cheap but that comes at a price for Sony and Nintendo can't afford that risk with Gameboy.
By early 2007, Sony should be able to manufacture PSP pretty cheap too. The next GB doesn't have to come out this Christmas, DS affords Nintendo some time to get a PSP comparable spec handheld ready at GB level price ranges.
 
jarrod said:
By early 2007, Sony should be able to manufacture PSP pretty cheap too. The next GB doesn't have to come out this Christmas, DS affords Nintendo some time to get a PSP comparable spec handheld ready at GB level price ranges.

Don't you think it's a bit dangerous to just have a "PSP comparable spec" for GBA2? By that time, early 2007, Sony would have had a two year headstart and a price drop just for GBA2 to come out with "comparable specs"?

I think either way Nintendo is going to have to develop something that is ahead of the curve to stay ahead of Sony.
 
Kiriku said:
It did? Why's that? And...how?
Retail and publisher support had more or less dried up by late 1994. Nintendo was readying Virtual Boy as a successor... and it flopped. Hard.

They went back to GB, worked on a sleek redesign and alongside Pokemon essentially reintroduced the platform. Retail, publishing and consumers all came back with force, creating the more youth focused GB market that exists to this day.
 
Insertia said:
Do people really believe the next GB will match PSP's specs? PSP is powerful and cheap but that comes at a price for Sony and Nintendo can't afford that risk with Gameboy.

Assuming that DS sales crash after the release of the PSP. The GC was released a hundred dollars cheaper than the PS2 and Xbox. The console design is the most cost effecient of the three. The next Gameboy probably won't play movies out of box or MP3.

If the GB,DS, Console market can all remain seperate forms of income, the possibility becomes greater.

You can be sure Nintendo is researching cartridge technology that would eliminate the need for a disk drive, which would naturally reduce cost. Add the low cost memory(1tSRAM), cost between the two manufacturers are to different to compare.

How much do you expect GameCube tech to cost in 2006?

The GC is on its way to being $79.99 this time next year and Nintendo probably still wouldn't loose much on the hardware. Also remember that Nintendo will be supporting the GC well into launch of the Revolution.
 
Imagine a handheld that had only a built-in tilt/rotation sensor and one button on each side. Now that would be simple, intuitive, and interesting to a non-gamer. Certain kinds of games probably wouldn't be possible, or at least not in the ways we're used to thinking about them.
 
Amir0x said:
Don't you think it's a bit dangerous to just have a "PSP comparable spec" for GBA2? By that time, early 2007, Sony would have had a two year headstart and a price drop just for GBA2 to come out with "comparable specs"?

I think either way Nintendo is going to have to develop something that is ahead of the curve to stay ahead of Sony.
Well sure... it'll most likely beat out PSP on a technical level, but it won't be a generational leap forward. Maybe comparable to DC versus GC or something.
 
AniHawk said:
1989-1995: Pretty much the first run. Ended it with colored Game Boys and Game Boy Pocket.

1996-2000: Success of Game Boy Pocket + success of Pokemon

But the success of Game Boy Pocket was very much because of the Pokémon success, right? So it basically boils down to Pokémon carrying the second lifecycle, or at the very least starting it.
 
Kiriku said:
But the success of Game Boy Pocket was very much because of the Pokémon success, right? So it basically boils down to Pokémon carrying the second lifecycle, or at the very least starting it.

I thought Game Boy Pocket came out in 1995 or around then in both North America and Japan. Pokemon first came out in Japan in 1995, but we didn't see it until 3 years later.
 
Kiriku said:
But the success of Game Boy Pocket was very much because of the Pokémon success, right? So it basically boils down to Pokémon carrying the second lifecycle, or at the very least starting it.
To some extent, but there was more of plan to Game Boy's 2nd term than just "whoops! Pokemon's a phenomenon". GBP wasn't as much a move to capitalize on Pokemon after the fact as it was developed in parallel to help rejuvinate the market.
 
jarrod said:
To some extent, but there was more of plan to Game Boy's 2nd term than just "whoops! Pokemon's a phenomenon". GBP wasn't as much a move to capitalize on Pokemon after the fact as it was developed in parallel to help rejuvinate the market.

But what else was there for GBP back then, in terms of games? I mean apart from Pokémon, were there any reasonably big releases? I can't recall any Mario or Wario game being released for GBP at all. No Zelda games either. No Dragon Quest or spin-off (I think?). No Metroid. One Castlevania game, but I don't think that was very popular. Any Square games perhaps?

Or did the GBP keep selling because of many games with low sales? But maybe it's always been like that on the handheld market, more or less? Looking at the GBA...few GBA games seem to reach really high numbers apart from Pokémon, despite a big userbase and all. Or am I wrong with this assumption?
 
In general, Chittagong and Fnordchan are thinking much of the same way I do on this subject and I'm not sure I could say it better. Nevertheless, responding to a few people:

Jonnyram said:
They actually said that games are too complex. They're not talking about a lack of simple games, more that the majority of the industry is obsessed with complexity.
six of one, half a dozen of another. If they're saying that games are too complex, they're saying there's a dearth of anything else.

Nintendo knows this, so they are trying to come up with fresh ideas that neither Sony or Microsoft are thinking about. Hence the hype and mystery surrounding the DS (back at the start of the year) and the Revolution.
Well, fresh spin maybe, but I'm not so sure about fresh ideas. Not that there's anything wrong with that, since its the nature of PR.

And hype and mystery around Nintendo hardware (and software) is nothing new. Nintendo platforms and titles previous to the DS and Revolution have received the same treatment.

Vark said:
You honestly think that person knows enough about games to plow through a library of HUNDREDS of PS2 games and magically they'll pick out the few games that they think are 'on their level'.

...

Now how about a system where its got buttons, but the only 'real' thing they ever see (through advertising and primary input when people use it) is the touch screen. It's a screen, they put their finger there, shit happens. Perceptionally they know that *all* games they ever buy for that system (whether its true or not isn't the point) will be as simple as touching the screen, and having shit happen.
So, instead of trying to increase exposure to existing software on platforms already in the hands of tens of millions that already addresses the alleged problem, the solution is to create a whole new piece of hardware and proclaim it the promised land for non/novice gamers? Why not just re-package some of the simpler games under a "Gaming for Dummies" brand? :)

I know tons of people (my sister and her boyfriend for instance) that own a PS2, and they've got a football game and maybe Tiger woods, and thats about it.
Given that the average tie ratio for PS2 software is actually up around 6-7 (last I checked), that "ton of people" you know apparently isn't very representative of the userbase.

We're the minority people, you have to accept that.
I'm not sure why you (or JasoN) think I haven't. I'm not the one throwing out anecdotal evidence like it represents the majority...

JasoNsider said:
There is no "crisis of perspective" on my end, I assure you. If middle aged men and women, young girls, seniors, and the public in general pay no attention to this medium, you have to realize there is a problem.
If the majority of the world outside of adult American males pay no attention to American football, you have to realize there is a problem...

If people who are risk averse and hate the cold pay no attention to skiing, you have to realize there is a problem...

If males of (almost) all persuasions generally pay no attention to bead jewelry making, you have to realize there is a problem...

The crisis of perspective is that you assume its a problem if people are not interested in this pastime.
 
Kiriku said:
But what else was there for GBP back then, in terms of games? I mean apart from Pokémon, were there any reasonably big releases? I can't recall any Mario or Wario game being released for GBP at all. No Zelda games either. No Dragon Quest or spin-off (I think?). No Metroid. One Castlevania game, but I don't think that was very popular. Any Square games perhaps?
Well from Nintendo there was games like Kirby 2, Wario Land 2-3, Donkey King Land series, Game & Watch Gallery series, etc. For 3rd party stuff, SF2, KoF '95, Castlevania, Bomberman, Survival Kids, DQ Monsters, among others. This was also the time when Nintendo instituted it's Player's Choice line for GB, reissuing games like Mario, Zelda & Tetris.


Kiriku said:
Or did the GBP keep selling because of many games with low sales? But maybe it's always been like that on the handheld market, more or less? Looking at the GBA...few GBA games seem to reach really high numbers apart from Pokémon, despite a big userbase and all. Or am I wrong with this assumption?
GBA definietly has softer game sales than the consoles, but games still do pretty well. Look at Konami or THQ's overwhelming succes on the platform. Namco's best selling game this gen in the US happens to be Namco Museum GBA. Capcom's Rockman.EXE series is huge in Japan. Square Enix does consistantly well too.... plus about everything Nintendo publishes puts up big numbers, with Mario, Zelda, DK & Metroid all usually selling in the millions. Games don't get neraly the upfront attention they do on consoles, but they also tend to sell more consistantly over long periods too without the quick dropoff console games have. It's a very lucrative market if handled correctly... but you can't just go in with a console game plan. That'll bankrupt you.
 
kaching said:
If the majority of the world outside of adult American males pay no attention to American football, you have to realize there is a problem...

If people who are risk averse and hate the cold pay no attention to skiing, you have to realize there is a problem...

If males of (almost) all persuasions generally pay no attention to bead jewelry making, you have to realize there is a problem...

The crisis of perspective is that you assume its a problem if people are not interested in this pastime.

I wasn't going to reply to this thread, but since you addressed me....

You're really stretching your examples now. Interactive Entertainment is an entire form of entertainment media. If movies and television have the potential to be wide-spread and universal in their appeal, so do video games. That means that there should be a potential scenario where there are games to satisfy everyone. I like a good drama movie, and I know if I hit up the local cinema I could probably find a good drama playing there. My sister likes really bright and fun animations. The new Pixar and Miyazaki films cover this easily. There is no such balance in the video game world in terms of complexity and themes. Your big mistake here is assuming that what we have here and now is what video games will (and should) always be.

If I choose, I would not even have to back up my claims with numbers. To see what I mean, just go ask those around you. Ask your grandmother what she thinks of Viewtiful Joe. Ask your mom if she picked up the newest GTA game. Ask younger females what kind of new games they've played. The very fact that those statements sound ridiculous speaks volumes. I can ask my grandmother about books and movies. I can talk to my mom about what TV shows she's watching. Video games just don't have that kind of appeal right now, and complexity is one of the factors contributing to this. The other factor, as I see it, is an image problem. That's a whole other can of worms.
 
The problem I have with Nintendo's approach is the DS needs to be $99 then, not $150, especailly compared to the PSP's $200.

If they want to attract a casual audience -- and yes, I do think the touchscreen opens up the possibility of finally getting some types of "I'll never touch a video game" audience to try it out, but not at that price.

Right now I think its mostly the tech heads buying the DS, not those craving simplicity.

Personally my feeling is video games never will be as mainstream as movies or television. There's simply an inherint amount of complexity to interactive entertainment that some people just don't have a tolerance for.
 
As I said in another thread, the industry needs to grow and to reach out and get the people who don't or won't play videogames involved. If the Cube/PS2/Xbox haven't done this, then how can the PSP? It's a portable PS2. Maybe the touchscreen is a way to get non-gamers interested in videogames.

I put myself in their position. What appeal would the PSP have for me? I drive my car to work every day. I can't use it while I'm driving. I don't particulary like the titles on the PS2/Xbox/Cube. I don't want their extensions on a portable system. Music? I have my cd player in the car, and my pc at work has a cd/dvd player. Movies? I'll watch those at home on my home theatre setup or my laptop.

The DS, I can't use a touch screen on my other equipment. The microphone? Control your games with your voice? Maybe these features are enough to get the non-gamers interested.
 
From Sony's perspective though they wouldn't agree with you.

The Playstation outsold the NES by a huge margin, and the PS2 has also already outsold the NES.

From their P.O.V. gaming is bigger than its ever been, and they're simply providing the Playstation experience now on the go with a nice serving of sexy portable design and other multimedia functionality.
 
Redbeard said:
Imagine a handheld that had only a built-in tilt/rotation sensor and one button on each side. Now that would be simple, intuitive, and interesting to a non-gamer. Certain kinds of games probably wouldn't be possible, or at least not in the ways we're used to thinking about them.

The DS was going to have a tilt sensor at one point, but I think going with the touchpad was better idea in terms of flexibility. Developers can make the touchpad just just an intuitive as anything else, but they have to design the games that way. We'll see a lot of trial and error in the next year or so in that regard, but hopefully developers will figure out what works really well and what should be left to consoles or more convential control setups.
 
This whole post made me scratch my head and go "Wha?"

Spike said:
As I said in another thread, the industry needs to grow and to reach out and get the people who don't or won't play videogames involved. If the Cube/PS2/Xbox haven't done this, then how can the PSP? It's a portable PS2. Maybe the touchscreen is a way to get non-gamers interested in videogames.

I'm not sure what you mean... someone who buys a system is automatically considered a "gamer"? How do we know just how many "non-gamers" converted to the new systems? Is there some sort of study that guages this? If so, link to that study so that we can have some perspective.

Spike said:
I put myself in their position. What appeal would the PSP have for me? I drive my car to work every day. I can't use it while I'm driving. I don't particulary like the titles on the PS2/Xbox/Cube. I don't want their extensions on a portable system. Music? I have my cd player in the car, and my pc at work has a cd/dvd player. Movies? I'll watch those at home on my home theatre setup or my laptop.

You sure do a poor job of putting yourself in their position. First of all, you can't use a DS either when driving your car. There's not a single DS game out so far that uses "voice control only" to progress in a game, and even THEN you need to pay attention to what is going on in the screen in order to progress. People who are spending time driving themselves to and from work won't be playing DS or PSP when they're driving to or from work. It's as simple as that. The PSP is on equal ground with DS here.

What about everything else? We already know casual people want music players other than their CD player. People buy iPODs, people buy radios, people buy CD players. Will this feature be a draw to casual non-gamers? I personally doubt it. But it still gives the PSP a leg up... if that feature DOES get advertised well, I'm sure a bunch of non-gamers will be interested in that feature. Why? Because it's a feature not related to gaming!

The DS doesn't have any non-gaming function like that to appeal to... *gasp*... non-gamers. In fact, the PSP is the only system at all that has features that are unrelated to gaming. What are non-gamers? They're people who don't play games. If they don't play games, which features are going to interest them more... a new way to play the games they never played before anyway, or non-gaming features that they can utilize for aspects they might have already been interested in? Your mileage may vaary, but you can see where I'm going with this.

As for movies, casual consumers buy portable movie players all the time. It's a very successful product. So it has already been established that there's a vast market for such things. Unfortunately for the PSP it's not exactly as simple as putting in a DVD and going off. And even if you boiled it down to poppin' in UMD movies, you still have to pay extra money to get the UMDs over say a DVD. So then there's the whole movie playing aspect from memory stick... and frankly most casual consumers won't be able to convert movie files to MPEG-4 (H.246(?)) even if their life depended on it. So this isn't so much a benefit, unless casual consumers have the wrong perception of the PSP (i.e., it plays DVDs).

Your whole "I WATCH MOVIEZ ON TV WITH GOOD SOUND SYSTEM" argument is bunk, because portable movie players sell extremely well. The difference between them two? ONE IS PORTABLE, THE OTHER IS NOT. So obviously the people who want to watch movies in a portable fashion would need some sort of portable movie player. So stop using such a retarded argument, it's the weakest thing I've ever heard in regard to this.

Spike said:
The DS, I can't use a touch screen on my other equipment. The microphone? Control your games with your voice? Maybe these features are enough to get the non-gamers interested.

No matter what happens, these are still gaming products. It's going to take a lot more than the ability to poke your screen with your finger to lure in "non-gamers." It's all PR bullshit, and frankly it has about as much credibility as Osama Bin Laden's commentary on western society.
 
Working? At this point Nintendo is still selling DSes to its loyal fanbase.

Wow you mean there's more than a million loyal Nintendo fans? I thought there were only a few thousand hardcore ones. Jesus that's a lot of hardcore fans.

Ok, now do you realize how stupid your logic is?
 
Pellham said:
Wow you mean there's more than a million loyal Nintendo fans? I thought there were only a few thousand hardcore ones. Jesus that's a lot of hardcore fans.

Ok, now do you realize how stupid your logic is?

He's mostly right, though. It's really hard to guage how successful Nintendo's logic has been because most early handheld/gadget/console adopters are either technogeeks or hardcore fans. At least 90% of the first adopters are such people; this is true for all products.

It's the trend that occurs in the next few months that will be most important.
 
and frankly most casual consumers won't be able to convert movie files to MPEG-4 (H.246(?)) even if their life depended on it.

Zuh?

Sony will include the software that lets you convert any video file to MPEG-4.

That's kinda like saying casual consumers wouldn't be able to convert their CDs to MP3s on their i-Pods if their life depended on it or they wouldn't be able to transfer their digital photos to their PC if their life depended on it.

I imagine the core PSP audience is going to be a little more tech savvy than you think also.

I doubt Grandma Wendy or Soccer Mom Suzie is Sony's target audience for this thing, they want the teens/college kids who love the Playstation and the shoppers who have to have the sexiest portable devices (the nicest cell phone, the newest i-Pod, etc.).
 
soundwave05 said:
Zuh?

Sony will include the software that lets you convert any video file to MPEG-4.

That's kinda like saying casual consumers wouldn't be able to convert their CDs to MP3s on their i-Pods if their life depended on it or they wouldn't be able to transfer their digital photos to their PC if their life depended on it.

I imagine the core PSP audience is going to be a little more tech savvy than you think also.

We're talking about non-gamers. If we're to believe these are people who have never been interested in games at any point, it's a fairly easy assumption to say they'd probably not be as tech savvy as you think.

First, they don't "include software that lets you convert any video file to MPEG-4." Sony is releasing a preview of the final MPEG-4 converter on the internet the day after it releases in Japan on 12/12. So that means the first hurdle casual consumers need to pass is downloading it to their computer. That means the word has to get out that there's such a thing available at Sony's PSP website. And then there's the whole issue of understanding the differences between movie formats; avi, mpeg, etc... and then understanding how that effects the conversion to MPEG-4. And then there's the actual conversion process, and Sony's previous conversion tools have been horrible. So if they actually pass all these hurdles then yes... then can do it fairly easily.

But for most non-gamers I think it's fair to say a hurdle this big is a lot to jump over. It's definitely not inconceivable, but I believe this feature will appeal to the hardcore group in the PSP market.
 
You're assuming Sony is targetting this thing at non-gamers first and foremost.

They're not. It's called PLAYSTATION Portable for a reason, not Walkman PS.

The audience they're going after is more of a tech savvy audience, I don't think they're really that concerned with 8-year-old little Johnny on the playground, they want little Johnny's 17-22 year old older brother or sister.

Sony doesn't target casuals/non-players, they go after a core audience first, then once they reach saturation there, what inevitably happens is the non-gamer or really casual shopper will go "everyone has a Playstation, maybe I should get one too".

That's always been their strategy and its worked. I know a few people who weren't game players previously that just bought a Playstation because its become such a iconic thing to own.

Sony just approaches the market from a different route than Nintendo does. They make games for gamers and then wait on non-gamers to come to them.
 
soundwave05 said:
The problem I have with Nintendo's approach is the DS needs to be $99 then, not $150, especailly compared to the PSP's $200.
Agreed. Nintendo should've just gone for the throat and used that 10,000 yen price point they were considering initially.


soundwave05 said:
From Sony's perspective though they wouldn't agree with you.

The Playstation outsold the NES by a huge margin, and the PS2 has also already outsold the NES.
That's primairly from expanding in newer markets though (Europe mainly). NES sold about 38 million in the US, Famicom around 25 million in Japan.... I don't believe even PS1 has passed either of those figures. PS2 should though, but it hasn't yet.
 
soundwave05 said:
You're assuming Sony is targetting this thing at non-gamers first and foremost.

I'm not assuming anything. Didn't you read this argument at all?

This whole argument was based off Spike's assumption that the DS would appeal more to "non-gamers" than PSP. And MY argument was that if we assume non-gamers would be attracted to either product, then they'd probably be more attracted to the system that has non-gaming features.

I don't think PSP is targeting non-gamers at all. I think it might lure in a few, but I doubt it'll be anything widespread.

soundwave05 said:
Walkman PS.

Walkman of the 21st Century?

soundwave05 said:
The audience they're going after is more of a tech savvy audience, I don't think they're really that concerned with 8-year-old little Johnny on the playground, they want little Johnny's 17-22 year old older brother or sister.

Well, I'm not disagreeing. The whole argument was based on Spike's own assumption, which is what I was arguing against! :P
 
Yeah Kutaragi has said they want it to be the WalkMan of the 21st century, but they're using the Playstation name for a reason, because of what the implies and the brand power it carries.

I think you overestimate the thought process with consumers anyway.

A lot of people buy an Apple i-Pod simply because its trendy and looks "cool".

Does the kid buying that $150 pair of Air Jordans know even what the "air" inside the sneaker does? No. He probably doesn't even care.

I mean that's the consumer culture that Sony thrives on and that's where they're looking to make hay with the PSP.

For $200, there's never been any type of portable device even remotely close to this. I mean the sheer value is unbelievable and the design is incredibly slick. I think Sony has a big, big winner on their hands.
 
We're losing track here...

But to quickly address some recent posts: PSP can be a phenomenal success by giving itself the right image. By generating the right opinions. We ALL know this. Hopefully anyway. Incidentally, Amir0x's observations about MPEG4 conversion are well thought out. And who's going to rebuy their collection on UMD? I also agree with the guy who in response feels they're going for the tech savvy consumer... the caveat being of course, that they expect to pick up their loyal PlayStation following on the way, and sweep many more up in the hype. Which I'm sure it will.

I think we've digressed though. The debate is already going around in circles. Does Iwata have a leg to stand on?

I'm in the yes camp. Getting back to the original material:

Nintendo DS is based on the Kyoto-based maker's recognition that people are drifting from games because they don't have time to master the increasingly complex games on the market, Nintendo President Satoru Iwata told reporters.

I can see why people have issues with this statement, but I haven't outright dismissed Iwata because of it yet...


WHAT ACTUALLY SELLS?

There is no evidence that we can provide that proves people are drifting away from gaming. At least not that I am aware of. Iwata hasn't provided any either. But could it be happening? We always hear about record sales being met here in the west, but could it be limited to the familiar (or occasionally well hyped) killer app? With well known developers closing shop this generation - is the problem:

* that games are ever more complex to create,
* that competition is too harsh,
* that selling games to disenfranchised and/or fickle consumers is hard,
* OR is it all of the above?

I remember reading that Japan's market was a buzz about such doomsday thinking... I think in essence, that as a Japanese company, this is Iwata's core context. I also wager he believes it will be mirrored in the west eventually. Obviously lots of companies are going from strength to strength. Where there are losers there are winners. But I have to admit: I seldom meet a gamer who can buy games on a whim. They tend to buy what they know, or what they have come to know through hype. Everything else is tablescraps.

You might say to me: "hey! things have never been better". We can argue about things like this til we are blue in the face. I suggest we don't. Total waste of time. But in Iwata's defence -- consider how hit-driven the market is. It's rare for new, innovative titles to come along and succeed. People, including Nintendo, are forced to play to current gamers' expectations. On the one hand, this is rather convenient, but when push comes to shove is rehashing really good for anyone? Can unending sports game updates, Japanese RPGs, cutesy platformers and film franchise games etc. continue to woo people forever? And more importantly - are these software updates targetting new gamers, or just spreading their reach amongst a common type of consumer? Is the games industry selling to the same audience it has grown in the last 25 years? Can that audience rear a future gaming audience of it's own? What if this current audience outgrows certain types of games? Or gets bored of typical code and convention? Could this be why we're accepting more passive movie-convergence type experiences more and more? I mean, it seems to me that few games start with the formulation of a fun idea; a good gaming mechanic. It's not like game designers sit down en masse, like Alexey Pajitnov did with his traditional Russian blocks game, and get inspired to create something new as he did with Tetris. Underneath it all, some games will have superior graphics engines, good level design or super tight control -- but most games will be a variation on something you have played before. A genre title. Rather than evolving from an idea involving 'play' - they all evolve from - "gee, what can we make that will sell?" .... they pick a genre template (ie. Fighting game or first person shooter) and then before we know it, we're being offered the franchise sequels, and TV/movie spin offs: Fight Club/Godfather/Lord of the Rings/Spiderman/Star Wars/Alias/24 type projects. And I think it's also why, every now and then, some eejit embarrasingly tries to shift crap like BMX XXX or The Guy Game onto the consumer. Can anyone honestly say that people must have sat down on these projects and thought - what kind of new / fun experience can I create?

I don't think you can. Now don't get me wrong, when you make a formula and perfect it -- the old adage of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" is perfectly applicable. There are awesome games out today. I've been coo-ing hardcore recently about Prime 2, The Minish Cap, GTA:SA and playing lots of Xbox games for the very first time. I say that if you can justify it and still make it fun, then there should be a franchise, there should be a sequel. People would want it that way. You can't just stop responding to demand. But when you're basely marketing to the lowest common denominator and using other forces in place of a good idea to sell your game, I really think that's detrimental to this industry.


WHO'S BUYING IT? OR MORE IMPORANTLY - WHO ISN'T?

Look at the demographics. Even just on this forum. Most people are in their teens or their twenties, some now entering their thirties. All of you guys, even if you just started playing in recent years, have grown up knowing what a gamepad was all about. You understood that to do more things, to have the experience be as it is today, more buttons and newer (more complex) interfaces were needed. Essentially, you are the middle and upper classes of the video game industry. You are priviledged to a better experience and understanding that newer generations of gamers might not have. You have went through the re-honing of your motor skills (particularly hand to eye co-ordination) in this traditional gaming set-up. But why are people here so opposed to change? There are people who've never touched a game before. People who can't comprehend that pushing a stick upwards moves you into the distance relative to a 3d camera. With some people: it would absolutely blow their mind if you explained that controlling the camera is a job you're meant to do in symbiosis with actual movement of the character, and interaction with it's surroundings. Hell, let's consider computer literacy. There are people who don't use computers as often as you and I. Your average worker bee doesn't sit at an office computer terminal all day, and then come home to Xbox Live to frag some of his fellow Spartans. The potential female gamer almost certainly doesn't. For whatever reason, there is this great mass of people that (aided by the convolution the extra dimension brings), cannot play modern video games... or do not want to play video games. Some of these people may have sat down to Tetris in the past and loved it. Or played Pong, Pacman or Galaga. They might be playing Snake on their mobile phone right now, or some other simplistic Java applet. That is to say: there will be things that these people are prepared to play. And there's nothing to say we couldn't have fun with those games too.

The bottom line is - OF COURSE a modern gamer, versed in modern gaming doesn't mind 11 buttons on a gamepad. OF COURSE they can have fun with a good first person shooter, or a tremendously detailed RPG game system. Most of you can comprehend pressure sensitive analog buttons. Directional analog sticks that you can click. Concepts of variable arrays that change when you level up a character. Abilities and limitations in an environment. Your understanding of video game genre conventions. BUT is it so hard to believe that complexity alienates new players? We can all give examples of successful and complex games. But this is not to say it's for everyone... some posts in this thread really convey a quite ignorant attitude of "ah well, it's our way or the high way".

At least some of you are acknowledging the existence of a market for simple-but-fun games... or even just complex games with simple interfaces. One need only consider how easy people adapt to games like Tetris, Puzzle Bobble, Snafu, Sokoban, Super Monkey Ball, Dance Dance Revolution, Donkey Konga, Eye Toy, Singstar, Theme Park, Roller Coaster Tycoon, The Sims and the plethora of early mobile phone games (console > Ngage ports show their power or lack of in Ngage sales). And while it's early days yet, and things could change a hell of a lot in a few months, you have gotta wonder how the DS is doing so well in Japan despite the near simultaneous launch of a more complex machine (graphically and control-wise) if that's all that people supposedly want. You gotta look at the continual success of Gameboy. Tamagotchi. Pokét Monsters. Wario Ware. I have to wonder, personally at least, could Nintendo be onto something?


QUESTIONS ON MY MIND

1) Gamers outside the older boundary of typical gamers are still not convinced the medium is viable entertainment, particularly over the course of hours. Some would rather watch or engage in sport. Some would rather watch a film or TV. Some would rather chat to friends on a mobile, or on Instant Messengers.. would these people indulge in easy to pick up, easy to drop, fun gameplay with an endearingly simple approach?

2) Younger gamers either dig games or they don't - increasingly most of them do. The public crazes suck them in on many hyped games, and kids have a tendancy to want to be cool and more grown up as they reach their teenage years. But having said that, there is an equal if not greater attraction for many of them in the Beyblades, Yu Gi Oh and Pokemon games of this world. Or other Gameboy platform success stories. Are other games perhaps unnecessarily visually complex or convoluted to control for some children? Could this be why 2D has persisted, and GBA has moved by the bucket load to the point where "Gameboy" is now as powerful if not more than the PlayStation brand?

3) What about girl gamers? Patronising women with dating games, britney dance games, and barbie adventures might sucker in the really young ladies, but things that are pulling in a lot of women are basically NOT what the game industry consider hot commodities and wave of the future. While doubtless there are girls who like them somewhere - Halo 2, American Football, and copy after copy of racing game or first person shooter aren't appealing across the gender divide effectively. A lot of stats put a lot of female gamers sitting at PCs endulging in online games/communication with one another, playing The Sims, the tycoon games and other rather unconsole-like gaming. That's the women who are gaming at all mind you. There are millions upon millions who aren't. Could this strategy pull these people?


NINTENDO DS

The thing I like about Nintendo DS so far, is that it really imposes some thought on the developer and publisher. You can take a one screen game, slap a map on the bottom screen and call it a happy-port-day. You could probably do this and somehow sleep at night.... but the game won't be as good as something that's designed ground up for the system. The developer has to contend not only with the screens, but consider WiFi, Stylus control and Microphone input. The latter two being a direct allure for simplistic, intuitive control schemes. There is basically more incentive on Nintendo DS to create new content than on any other platform. Whether people take the bait or not... we'll see:

Because the other hand it has everything required to make traditional games play as normal. The thing I don't like about the DS, is that Nintendo might allow this to happen in an epidemic kind of way. If Nintendo DS doesn't offer these new kind of experiences we've been talking about - what are you left with? No new audience gained, and ports that aren't as good as their PSP cousins.

At the end of the day, whether what Iwata says is right or wrong doesn't really matter. Everything he says could be, and almost certainly is, just PR justification for Nintendo DS' existence. An attempt to sell Nintendo DS to the media, to consumers, or to his investors. For gamers, the motives should be inconsequential. It's the games that should matter.




---

some quotes that I find interesting, that lead me to believe certain things or back my ideas up:

Iwata said he doubts that PSP, which marks Sony's foray into handheld gaming, will attract new fans the way Nintendo DS has, wooing beginners, including young women who studies have shown usually dislike games.

I think from the Japanese marketing campaign you can tell they've been targeting women there as well as men. The US campaign played more towards an adult campaign - attempts at seductive female voiceovers negate the gender ambiguity the Japanese campaign had.

The old-style formula for success of relying on technological innovations to deliver dazzling graphics simply doesn't work, Iwata said. Nintendo DS, which stands for "dual screen," has a wireless function and a touch-panel.

"PSP has been created with the assumption that the golden success formula is still working. We don't believe that," Iwata said at the Foreign Correspondents' Club. "We're making every effort so that people will say we were right."

I agree with whoever said Iwata communicates the companies thoughts poorly. I don't think he sees how western gamers can react to statements like this with utter horror. As I understand it - he's basically saying: just using your extra power to up the graphics is not enough, you can do more with technological innovation. Instead it sounds like he's lambasting fancy graphics themselves. Which, given the desire for handheld gaming to be a more cost-free arena, might be his intention. But I doubt it somehow..


"We're focusing on our market, ages 5 to 95," he said.

Games anyone can play. It's always been their quest for the holy grail. And a quest that people have been saying would doom them for the last 10 years. Fuck dem kids! Fuck those people who can't use 11 buttons! Slap a T or an M on the box and give me bigger, better graphics.

I know whose side I'm on. Perhaps I justify what Iwata has said because I'm drifting away from gaming myself. I have all three consoles now. I have fun with a handful of games, and consider almost everything else on shop shelves to be utter shite. The prospect of something fresh, and a company (who in PR at least) seems commited to making it, excites me.

Thom
 
The problem I have with Nintendo's approach is the DS needs to be $99 then, not $150, especailly compared to the PSP's $200.

Agreed. It was a very stupid move in the long term, because it basically allows Sony to sell it for only $50 more, and the consumer not feel screwed. Nintendo made it okay for handheld gaming to be priced over $100, and that is a big mistake.
 
simple games are good n all, but if im gunna spend more than $20 then im gunna expect something thats a little more complex than tetris. Everything gets complex, it's like the evolution of technology, Tv's Computers, Mobile phones etc.
 
APerfectCircle said:
simple games are good n all, but if im gunna spend more than $20 then im gunna expect something thats a little more complex than tetris. Everything gets complex, it's like the evolution of technology, Tv's Computers, Mobile phones etc.

I agree. But I think that should be the case on the home consoles already. I would buy more games if they were priced according to quality or expectations. This flat rate shit sucks... the occasional game like Beyond Good & evil, Serious Sam or Wario Ware Mega Party Game$ launches at the equivilent of £20 every now and then.. but many others do not deserve their asking price.

As for the complexity issue again. Something can be complex but user-friendly right?
 
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