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[Majine]

Not when they're diverting US ane SK humanitarian aid to the military and Russia is exploiting NK labor ans China exploiting NK resources.

Withiut humanitarian aid propping up the regime, NK would have collapsed long ago. China is unable to sustain them like everyone thinks.

I looked up the numbers: US has provided 1 million dollars to NK in humanitarian aid, UN is 6 million.

I'm no expert, but these numbers don't seem enough to sustain them either.

 

[SolidChamp]

Worry not! Antlion is tame! I will take the SandRuby.

 

[SDCowboy]

At the same time there's no downplaying a hostile government launching a nuke over a large swath of your country. How do you downplay that?

A nuke was not launched over Japan.

 

[B-Dubs]

A nuke was not launched over Japan.

Ballistic missile then, my mistake. The point stands though.

 

[Zoc]

At the same time there's no downplaying a hostile government launching a nuke over a large swath of your country. How do you downplay that?

You don't downplay it, but you deal with it calmly and with composure. Also, you consider reducing the risk of public panic by informing people of missile flyovers after they've already splashed into the sea

 

[SDCowboy]

Ballistic missile then, my mistake. The point stands though.

A blank missile. Launched hundreds of miles over the country.

I'm not saying it's ok in any way, but that is how/why it gets downplayed.

 

[Madness]

Do we even know if Japan can shoot down a missile in flight?

The last I read, even the US has virtually no chance of shooting down an unannounced ICBM.

This is false. An ICBM just means intercontinental ballistic missile meaning cross continents. Otherwise it is just a ballistic missile. The US, Russia, Israel have developed missile intercept systems. The problem is they are not foolproof. THAAD, the S-500, Iron Dome these can intercept ballistic missiles. The issue is, you can overwhelm air defense, but a single missile in place can be stopped. But remember it is also much like shooting a moving target out of air with a gun. You need to be faster than the target or have better aiming. Improved radars, better satellite positioning and imagery means, most cruise missiles and medium range ballistic range missiles stoppable. It is why Russia is developing supersonic and hypersonic cruise missiles.

Right now, the US wouldn't be able to prevent an all out Russian or Chinese missile launch. Just not possible. But a single or handful of NK missiles. Depends on the range and flight. The US can launch interceptor missiles pretty quickly, can mobilize air superiority. But to prevent say a bombing of Seoul, that is why they need they multiple sites for THAAD and MIM-104 Patriot missiles in SK.

Nope. US can only best NK with bringing in troops, attacking NK with missiles/nukes whatever while they all live underground will not end well for anyone.

That would just provoke them to do real attacks and you may even see China and Russia join in to help put down the US and anyone else who stands in their way.

What? The US can launch B2 stealth bombers in minutes undetectable by NK or China and carpet bomb all of Pyongyang unconventionally before anyone even knows what happens. Why do you think they would send troops? Are you ignoring the multiple nuclear submarines around Japan and SK right now that could probably launch multiple conventional missiles targeting most of NK without any detection? Russia and China would not challenge the world superpower if it came to NK especially if NK attacks first. Would be suicide on their end. That's what happens when you have the biggest stick. The only issue is the US no longer speaks softly.

 

[eatingforwork]

They also don't want a unified Korea that is a potential adversary and US ally right on their border. They would prefer a buffer.

I agree and disagree. Lots of US US allies border China and with the way wars are fought nowadays, the real battle will be in the air (or falling from it). Even as someone born in Seoul and someone who would love to see a reunification, I don't ever see how it could happen. It's oil and water from political, idealogical and technological aspects. South Korea has a hard enough time getting a small handful of defectors integrated into South Korea society. Imagine that extended to everyone in NK. It would take decades.

 

[ponpo]

The problem with the alerts is that they don't have any real practical purpose. Nobody can do anything to prepare for a nuclear bomb, or even prepare for a piece of broken missile falling on their head.

Now, normally, when something goes dangerously wrong, the Japanese government does a fantastic job of covering it up and telling people that they're handling it. So why are they sending out these alerts?

I think it's not unreasonable to consider that the real purpose of these alerts is to scare people and build support for Abe's anti-pacifist constitutional revisions.

To me they seem like more of a thing for news stations to discuss rather than some scaremongering for the populace. I've yet to see many people freaking out over them and most seem to just treat them as a mild annoyance.

But again in the end I don't think it's unreasonable for some people to want something done. Everything NK does gets met either with strong words or at most with sanctions, and that seems to be all that they are going to be getting, which results in literally zero reduction in hostility from NK. If you think phone alerts are too much and NK shows no sign of a change in behavior, you're asking for literally zero reaction to at this point monthly ICBM flyovers.

 

[Loxley]

Nope. US can only best NK with bringing in troops, attacking NK with missiles/nukes whatever while they all live underground will not end well for anyone.

That would just provoke them to do real attacks and you may even see China and Russia join in to help put down the US and anyone else who stands in their way.

China has already said they'll stay out of any conflict between the US and NK if NK strikes first. Russia likely would as well. Neither of them give a shit about NK enough to go to war with the US, no one's gonna start WW3 over North Korea. China especially won't go to war with their #1 economic and trade partner.

If NK instigates a war with the US or one of it's allies (SK or Japan), China has basically told them they're on their own.

 

[bazzaar]

NK can't launch an unannounced missile. The satellites are trained on their sites 24/7. I highly doubt any of these tests are not known about well before they happen.

This verge article describes how the US may have a chance bringing down an ICBM..

It relies on the distance the ICBM has to fly to reach the US as well as getting lucky. Given Japan is just a stones throw away from NK I would highly doubt they would get organized to shoot it down.

 

[shira]

I'm glad these threads are dated now. Since this is the new norm with DPRK launching missiles its good to know which thread is the most recent

No secondapps countdown timer in OP?

 

[Extollere]

And more will die. North Korean citizens are as disposable as the nazis, because while you are all piling onto me, North Korea could launch all the missiles they want at our allied nations. They should be defended.

What are you even advocating for here? A significant portion of North Korea's population is more concerned with getting enough food than they are anything else. You get thrown in a concentration camp for life for even minor infractions. There is no internet, and no means of organizing a resistance when citizens are required to report wrong doing with the lives of their families at risk. The notion that they just need to grow a pair is as naive and insulting as whatever you just posted is unintelligible.

 

[eatingforwork]

China has already said they'll stay out of any conflict between the US and NK if NK strikes first. Russia likely would as well. Neither of them give a shit about NK enough to go to war with the US, no one's gonna start WW3 over North Korea. China especially won't go to war with their #1 economic and trade partner.

I'd tend to disagree only because once the bombs start falling, North Koreans basically have one place to go...North to China.

 

[TestedTurok]

Aren't their dedicated nuclear testing grounds for countries? Why test in another countries sea, over the damn island etc.

 

[bitbydeath]

China has already said they'll stay out of any conflict between the US and NK if NK strikes first. Russia likely would as well. Neither of them give a shit about NK enough to go to war with the US, no one's gonna start WW3 over North Korea. China especially won't go to war with their #1 economic and trade partner.

China did say they will side with NK if US attacks first though.

 

[SDCowboy]

This verge article describes how the US may have a chance bringing down an ICBM..

It relies on the distance the ICBM has to fly to reach the US as well as getting lucky. Given Japan is just a stones throw away from NK I would highly doubt they would get organized to shoot it down.

Right, it's still far from easy, but NK isn't launching anything without it being known long in advance.

 

[Netherscourge]

Good, good.

Keep wasting that rocket fuel.

 

[brian577]

I'd tend to disagree only because once the bombs start falling, North Koreans basically have one place to go...North to China.

I would not be surprised if the Chinese military just killed anyone who tried to cross the border, Russia too.

 

[Zoc]

To me they seem like more of a thing for news stations to discuss rather than some scaremongering for the populace. I've yet to see many people freaking out over them and most seem to just treat them as a mild annoyance.

But again in the end I don't think it's unreasonable for some people to want something done. Everything NK does gets met either with strong words or at most with sanctions, and that seems to be all that they are going to be getting, which results in literally zero reduction in hostility from NK. If you think phone alerts are too much and NK shows no sign of a change in behavior, you're asking for literally zero reaction to at this point monthly ICBM flyovers.

The alerts can be scaremongering and also not effective at scaring people.

The alerts don't constitute any kind of "reaction" against NK, though. Why would they care about a domestic alert system? No system would make the least bit of difference in a real attack.

Anyway, as for a real reaction, there's still nothing we can do. NK will never launch real missiles, and will inevitably change its political system by itself, eventually.

 

[Dopus]

And more will die. North Korean citizens are as disposable as the nazis, because while you are all piling onto me, North Korea could launch all the missiles they want at our allied nations. They should be defended.

"The only solution is war."

"North Korean citizens are as disposable as the nazis."

"There won't be millions of South Korean casualties."

Something tells me you don't know what you're talking about.

 

[Zoc]

Right, it's still far from easy, but NK isn't launching anything without it being known long in advance.

Why do you think this? As far as I know, launches can't be detected until the missile is in the air. I can't imagine any way you could predict a launch before that.

 

[ChainedMaster]

I remember the hysteria of few people that said the missile could have malfunctioned and landed in Japan. Any missile fired in that general direction could do that. Firing over doesn't make it anymore likely. It's a symbolic gesture. Alarming, but merely symbolic.

 

[eatingforwork]

Why do you think this? As far as I know, launches can't be detected until the missile is in the air. I can't imagine any way you could predict a launch before that.

Reports were coming in a day ago that NK was moving an ICMB launcher into position with a potential for a launch. Granted, I wouldn't consider a day to be "long in advance." But hey, it's something.

 

[SDCowboy]

Why do you think this? As far as I know, launches can't be detected until the missile is in the air. I can't imagine any way you could predict a launch before that.

Satellites, and watching the activity at and around the sites. It is likely usually known well in advance before these tests have happened, that were going to happen. I'm not referring to knowing exactly when they're going to happen.

 

[ty_hot]

NK is begging for war it seems.

Its the exact opposite. While they have nukes/missiles, noone is going there. That's what they hope, at least. Makes sense.

 

[ponpo]

The alerts can be scaremongering and also not effective at scaring people.

The alerts don't constitute any kind of "reaction" against NK, though. Why would they care about a domestic alert system? No system would make the least bit of difference in a real attack.

Anyway, as for a real reaction, there's still nothing we can do. NK will never launch real missiles, and will inevitably change its political system by itself, eventually.

It's a reaction against an NK action, not against them specifically. I just meant minus these admittedly useless alerts, there would be no reaction to flyby ICBMs which seems kind of crazy. People have gotten used to enough NK garbage as being normal, I don't know if these types of events should be included in that. Alerts might help delay that effect at least.

 

[KuroNeeko]

Right. Another real test, that they do regularly. It's a missile, with no payload, hundreds of miles up in the sky. Japan is not getting buzzed with loaded nukes.

Hey, man.

Get back to us with those HOT TAKES when a belligerent country starts shooting missiles over your country / home on a weekly basis.

 

[ChainedMaster]

Hey, man.

Get back to us with those HOT TAKES when a belligerent country starts shooting missiles over your country / home on a weekly basis.

They've always fired missiles to the Sea of Japan before though. This is just a symbolic change.

 

[SDCowboy]

Hey, man.

Get back to us with those HOT TAKES when a belligerent country starts shooting missiles over your country / home on a weekly basis.

There is no hot take there. Nobody, including myself, is saying this is ok.

 

[Ecotic]

I think China's assurance to defend North Korea if the U.S. strikes first is mostly meant to stabilize the present situation, and if it comes to that scenario China will not honor the pledge. China will find a face-saving excuse to stay out of the situation, such as saying "launching over Japan and repeatedly threatening counts".

For China nothing has priority over their plan to become a superpower on equal footing with the U.S. within a few decades. China's not going to sacrifice that goal for North Korea, and a refugee crisis is an acceptable loss to endure to get to that goal.

 

[Etrian Oddity]

Wonder if they'll launch another one when/if Trump visits Japan in 2 months time

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...rly-november-stops-vietnam-philippines-china/

I know this is a joking post, but it does make you wonder.

Do you think NK would be ballsy enough to fire a missile over a region the President of the United States is in?

 

[KuroNeeko]

They've always fired missiles to the Sea of Japan before though. This is just a symbolic change.

Really? Feels more threatening when they're shooting them over your house (fig) than dropping them in your front yard. At the moment of launch, I guess you wouldn't know which is which though, fair enough.

There is no hot take there. Nobody, including myself, is saying this is ok.

All right.
Sorry for the kneejerk response.

 

[MonsterHunter]

Article 9 was a mistake

 

[Eylos]

Trump Will probably ask for the harsher sanctions against NK

 

[KuroNeeko]

Article 9 was a mistake

I don't agree with this at all.
Isn't there enough war and conflict to go around already?

 

[Ivellios]

There won't be millions of South Korean casualties. Most likely, the only dead people will be North Koreans who didn't have the balls to protest their government's actions.

This is a dumb and ignorant post in so many ways, its easy to speak about NK civilians having no balls from where you stand, i wonder if you would be so brave if you lived there.

 

[Insane Metal]

And this will only escalate, because they are trying to force down those sanctions. I hope it works the other way around though.

 

[spons]

I apologize for the virtual dump I took in this thread. I wasn't thinking. Consider this a well-meant sorry for the three people who haven't placed me on their ignore lists.

South Korea will most likely be hit the very instant the North is attacked. China will have to make a serious move in putting the correct sanctions in place.

PS: I'm not under the influence of anything, nor am I 13 years of age. Thanks.

 

[MIMIC]

LOL, didn't the U.N. just approve brand new sanctions on NK?

 

[John Rabbit]

I leave south korea in 5 days. Hopefully nothing pops off before then.

I'll be in Tokyo for the next 3.5 days, really hope nothing happens.

 

[Massive Duck. C.M.]

It's always odd to see people outside of Japan saying we got nothing to worry about lol

 

[The_Inquisitor]

LOL, didn't the U.N. just approve brand new sanctions on NK?

Reduced sanctions because the US wanted unity w/ Russia and China.

 

[Rival]

Reduced sanctions because the US wanted unity w/ Russia and China.

More like reduced instead of facing veto.

 

[ponpo]

It's always odd to see people outside of Japan saying we got nothing to worry about lol

I think there generally is nothing to worry about but I find it weird that people think anything more than a yawn at these scenarios is overreacting.

 

[Coriolanus]

NK literally shelled a South Korean town and killed a few SK civilians back in like 2010 and no one did anything.

The only way we go to war with NK is if they drop a nuke or other large bomb on a heavily populated area.

They sunk a SK navy ship also. If they were that bold without nukes, just imagine how bold they'll get understanding folks will do nothing.

Also, NK missiles do not have a stellar record making it to their target; while most will blow up early, some have blown up in flight. If firing over Japan becomes normalized, at some point there will be an accident.

in the shelling incident, SK was doing shelling drills, then NK got antsy and shelled SK. SK shelled them right the fuck back with gusto, so the idea that "no one did anything" is a falsehood.

In the sinking of the SK navy ship, read the whole wikipedia article and not just the opening paragraph. The way the investigation was handled there was a mess.

also "firing over japan" is a very peculiar sentence for an object that is supposed to fly at a greater height than the ISS.

Is there reason to worry? Sure. It's fucking NK. There's always reason to worry.
Is there reason to think that they'll actually carry out the threats that they've been issuing for decades? Narp.

 

[superdeluxe]

They've always fired missiles to the Sea of Japan before though. This is just a symbolic change.

This is the 5th time that a missile (2nd in as many months) has been fired over Japan. It's a clear escalation in their provocation

 

[The_Inquisitor]

More like reduced instead of facing veto.

Semantics.

 

[Massive Duck. C.M.]

I think there generally is nothing to worry about but I find it weird that people think anything more than a yawn at these scenarios is overreacting.

Yeah, especially since a lot of people are forgetting/overlooking the fact that Japan's largest military ally has no real leader right now

 

[dinoric]

What, exactly, would make North Korea stop launching missiles? They have the materials to make and launch them. Any sanction would be a fart in the wind. The only solution is war.

Why shouldn't North Korea have the ability to defend its country?