I thought I'd list out the $60 retail new IP console games this generation that sold 3+ million units.
3 million units is generally considered the "this is definitely worth keeping" bar by major publishers.
I'm being generous and counting things like "Tom Clancy" and "Lord of the Rings" as new IPs for our purposes.
Known:
- The Division: Open world online third person shooter loot RPG
- Destiny: Hub based online first person shooter loot RPG
- Watch Dogs: Open world GTA-style game with a variety of multiplayer modes.
- Titanfall: Online competitive first person shooter. Multiplayer only.
- Shadow of Mordor: Open world action adventure game based on popular license released at opportune time. Singleplayer only. Looking at job postings, it doesn't look like multiplayer is coming to the sequel, so we can see how this sustains.
- Splatoon: Multiplayer focused competitive third person shooter with a side campaign.
Presumed:
- Overwatch: It's not out yet, but Activision Blizzard is expecting it to sell over 3 million on the first day. Online multiplayer first person shooter with no campaign.
Borderline:
- The Crew: Online multiplayer open world racing game. Ubisoft said it had 3 million players, but it's not clear how many unique copies that maps to. We know it had previously shipped at least 2 million units.
- Bloodborne: Action RPG with online and open world elements. Very closely tied to successful series. Not clear if it passed 3 million as the last update was 2 million before the holidays.
Am I missing anything?
I think you got them all, but to be fair how different is it really than PS360 at this point in time? 2.5 years out we had (presuming the sales #s you're talking):
Mass Effect (Bioware RPG)
Assassin's Creed (open world)
Gears of War (MP shooter)
Rock Band (guitar hero)
Bioshock (System Shock successor)
Uncharted/Resistance (two shooters from beloved devs)
Crackdown (open world, Halo 3 beta)
Dead Rising (open world, zombies)
The Darkness? Lost Planet?
I'm not really seeing any point here other than if we included Nintendo you would obviously see that Nintendo's new IPs are languishing and few and far between. None of those games except Rock Band are particularly risky. I'm sure there's PC games I'm forgetting but this is NPD stuff anyways.