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[Beth Cyra]

But that's the thing with the FF franchise, everyone has very strong and different opinions about what games are good/bad. IMO VII, IX, X, and XII were all way better then VIII, XI, and XIII (XIII-2 being arguable). I'm sure a dozen other FF fans would give you a dozen other list. Until FFXV comes out and does XIII-2 or worse numbers it's really hard to tell.

This has nothing to do with Opinoins and all the opinions you have on this mean nothing.

This is about pure raw numbers.

VII, VIII and X are the three big games. Aside from those Final Fantasy has had major issues selling to consumers and keeping them going game to game.

Just acting like a fw awesome trailers and the name FF XV will not solve the continued issue of Final Fantasy being in a downward spiral. We already have the evidence of your XV doing XIII-2 numbers. Not as drastic surely, but the drop is no less scary given how IX, XII and XIII couldn't equal VII, VIII, and X while XIV turned into one of the biggest problems Square has had in a very long time.

It doesn't matter how much we love the games when the audience continues to drop.

 

[Ridley327]

Ew so its basically been Peace Walker'd (or as I call it portablized)? Broken down into dinky little missions with small environments and lil to no backtracking unlike classic REs? I can why that'd turn people off. That and the initial $50 pricepoint x.x

People are vastly overstating the "portablized" nature of the story; it's broken up very similarly to how RE5 was laid out and you even get a big central area that you can explore at your own leisure for a good chunk of the game.

About the only thing that feels like it was made specifically for a handheld experience are the story recaps when you load the game or start a new chapter.

 

[Skiesofwonder]

I'm not sure what is particularly positive about the PSV numbers. I mean, let's step back a second. We're talking about launch window sales. Let's assume the upper end of success is when a system is completely sold out everywhere (like the Wii was in the launch window and a good deal afterwards). I think we can agree that Vita is NOT supply constrained, people that want them can get them.

So what do the numbers tell me? Just on average over the 4 day span you'd be looking at 55k a day, in reality we can probably guess that the bulk of the sales were in the first day, considering early adopters and pre-orders.

What will next month look like? I'm not sure that there is any buzz with the Vita, I don't see any new games generating a bump in sales... I mean, obviously it will sell some but would ANYONE be shocked at a 180k month? Would anyone consider that kind of sales good or healthy? I think the more buzz around a system the more likely to pick up good sales from impulse buys even in off months. But now? In March? Where are sales going to come from?

I would say 180k would be a GOOD sign honestly. Only droping 40k units in your second month? It would show that legs are potentially strong and word of mouth was/is really good. Personally, I'm fully expecting 100-125k for next month, if not worse.

 

[HylianTom]

I'm not sure what is particularly positive about the PSV numbers. I mean, let's step back a second. We're talking about launch window sales. Let's assume the upper end of success is when a system is completely sold out everywhere (like the Wii was in the launch window and a good deal afterwards). I think we can agree that Vita is NOT supply constrained, people that want them can get them.

So what do the numbers tell me? Just on average over the 4 day span you'd be looking at 55k a day, in reality we can probably guess that the bulk of the sales were in the first day, considering early adopters and pre-orders.

What will next month look like? I'm not sure that there is any buzz with the Vita, I don't see any new games generating a bump in sales... I mean, obviously it will sell some but would ANYONE be shocked at a 180k month? Would anyone consider that kind of sales good or healthy? I think the more buzz around a system the more likely to pick up good sales from impulse buys even in off months. But now? In March? Where are sales going to come from?

It does not look encouraging. I'm very interested in seeing next month's sales versus those four days' worth.

 

[Effect]

Ew so its basically been Peace Walker'd (or as I call it portablized)? Broken down into dinky little missions with small environments and lil to no backtracking unlike classic REs? I can why that'd turn people off. That and the initial $50 pricepoint x.x

There was a decent amount of backtracking and retraveling through areas. The ship you are on is quite large I felt. Some of the sections can be a bit small but it wouldn't make sense in the context of what is happening for there to be large open spaces. I haven't played other RE games in any detail to know if things were really different from what was presented in the RE:R

 

[mugurumakensei]

Ew so its basically been Peace Walker'd (or as I call it portablized)? Broken down into dinky little missions with small environments and lil to no backtracking unlike classic REs? I can why that'd turn people off. That and the initial $50 pricepoint x.x

You can backtrack. It's just not required unless you want to find hidden fingerprints, hidden weapon caches, and hidden ammo.

 

[UncleSporky]

Obviously a very poor launch for RE:R.

I don't want to sound like full-on defense force here or anything but I do expect Revelations to perform well over the life of the system. It's a game we'll see recommended in "I just bought a 3DS" threads for years to come, like RE4 for the Cube.

Doesn't change those first month numbers, though.

 

[UberTag]

What will next month look like? I'm not sure that there is any buzz with the Vita, I don't see any new games generating a bump in sales... I mean, obviously it will sell some but would ANYONE be shocked at a 180k month? Would anyone consider that kind of sales good or healthy? I think the more buzz around a system the more likely to pick up good sales from impulse buys even in off months. But now? In March? Where are sales going to come from?

Seeing how March is a 5-week sales tracking period, I'd be a little surprised at 180K. I'm expecting somewhere in the range of 225K for March... roughly where it wound up for February but obviously not great considering you're comparing 4 days of sales against 5 weeks of sales and looking at similar numbers.

It will definitely be sub-200K in April. Even the 3DS failed to crack 200K last April and that was coming off a hotter launch and one in March at that.

I'm thinking 225K for March, somewhere in the range of 150K-160K for April, less than 150K for May. Something along those lines.
If it comes in around where Skiesofwonder is predicting, I'll consider Sony's video game division to be in its death throes.

 

[Kyoufu]

Isn't that a very poor launch for Vita?

 

[Speevy]

What the Vita needs is something stupid that will make us all roll our eyes.

That's the only surefire ticket to sales success that I have encountered.

 

[mugurumakensei]

Isn't that a very poor launch for Vita?

Yea, but I don't think it's surprising unless you bought into Sony's PR fluff earlier in the month.

Needless to say, Eurogamer's (MCV UK's?) article about the Vita doing better than the 3DS is well past inaccurate.

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

Isn't that a very poor launch for Vita?

It's only 1/3rds of a month, but yeah it's not that good.

 

[magash]

Isn't that a very poor launch for Vita?

It is very very poor. I am afraid next month we might see 100-150k units sold. The launch of iPad 3 might also affect the Vita.

 

[Petrae]

Isn't that a very poor launch for Vita?

I think that "poor" is a strong description. 200K would have been the red flag level IMO, and Vita got past that. Considering market conditions surrounding Vita at the time of launch (multiple sources of competition, price perception, memory card woes), I just don't think that expectations should have been that high.

I was even initially bullish with an estimate over 300K, but scaled back after considering all of the other factors at play.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

I'm not sure what is particularly positive about the PSV numbers. I mean, let's step back a second. We're talking about launch window sales. Let's assume the upper end of success is when a system is completely sold out everywhere (like the Wii was in the launch window and a good deal afterwards). I think we can agree that Vita is NOT supply constrained, people that want them can get them.

So what do the numbers tell me? Just on average over the 4 day span you'd be looking at 55k a day, in reality we can probably guess that the bulk of the sales were in the first day, considering early adopters and pre-orders.

What will next month look like? I'm not sure that there is any buzz with the Vita, I don't see any new games generating a bump in sales... I mean, obviously it will sell some but would ANYONE be shocked at a 180k month? Would anyone consider that kind of sales good or healthy? I think the more buzz around a system the more likely to pick up good sales from impulse buys even in off months. But now? In March? Where are sales going to come from?

Was anyone expecting much better? It didn't bomb, it didn't fly off shelves. With the way the handheld landscape is now, I don't see how you could have expected much more out of it.

Sales probably will be pretty bad over the next 6 months, the system caters to a hardcore crowd and doesn't have a mainstream, accessible blockbuster title probably until call of duty comes out.

It'll be a hard sell early on. But it's worth noting that Sony has established a really great piece of hardware, and the ball is in their court to make proper use out of it and support it with unique, top notch software that will attract new buyers over the coming years.

PS3 early on did absolutely awful, selling 60k in some months, but Sony managed to turn that business around with a diverse lineup and regular price cuts.

And as the 3DS has proved, don't write a console off just because it doesn't have the greatest start.

Yea, but I don't think it's surprising unless you bought into Sony's PR fluff earlier in the month.

How do the NPD estimates contradict Sony's "PR fluff"?

As I recall, Sony had a few more days of sales when they released that report, and secondly, it was a global tally...leaving about 600k for ex-Japan sales globally. 220k for the USA only (not including Canada) sounds about right in line with their report, honestly.

 

[Petrae]

The launch of iPad 3 might also affect the Vita.

A good point, and one to consider for those of you who participate in the Predictions thread for March.

 

[sp3000]

Waiting for the vita price drop

 

[BassForever]

This has nothing to do with Opinoins and all the opinions you have on this mean nothing.

This is about pure raw numbers.

VII, VIII and X are the three big games. Aside from those Final Fantasy has had major issues selling to consumers and keeping them going game to game.

Just acting like a fw awesome trailers and the name FF XV will not solve the continued issue of Final Fantasy being in a downward spiral. We already have the evidence of your XV doing XIII-2 numbers. Not as drastic surely, but the drop is no less scary given how IX, XII and XIII couldn't equal VII, VIII, and X while XIV turned into one of the biggest problems Square has had in a very long time.

It doesn't matter how much we love the games when the audience continues to drop.

Sorry I misread what you said, I thought you were talking about popularity and reception not sales

 

[Petrae]

Waiting for the vita price drop

That will be one long wait. Don't forget to wind your watch.

 

[Father_Brain]

What will next month look like? I'm not sure that there is any buzz with the Vita, I don't see any new games generating a bump in sales... I mean, obviously it will sell some but would ANYONE be shocked at a 180k month? Would anyone consider that kind of sales good or healthy? I think the more buzz around a system the more likely to pick up good sales from impulse buys even in off months. But now? In March? Where are sales going to come from?

I'd be shocked if it only dropped 20% in March, honestly. I predict a similar sales curve to 3DS pre-price-drop and minus the Zelda bump; anything above 160K or so would surprise me.

 

[UncleSporky]

And as the 3DS has proved, don't write a console off just because it doesn't have the greatest start.

Indeed, the 3DS has proven that you need a good 30% price drop to turn your fortunes around.

 

[Effect]

I just hope RE:R has legs. An easy recommendation to anyone looking for an action/adventure game on the system. I just don't want Capcom to turn around and blame 3DS owners given their own actions and lack of actions.

 

[Speevy]

That will be one long wait. Don't forget to wind your watch.

It could get the "OH MY GOD PLEASE TAKE THIS THING." desperation drop, circa "It just keeps getting better." Gamecube.

 

[rockx4]

I think Vita's problem is it's console port experience. In my group of friends I'm the only one that bought a Vita. We all own all current consoles\handhelds, and almost everyone I know base game purchases on 2 factors.

1: Best Multiplatform version (Vita will obviously lose out here)
2: Exclusive

I usually do not buy ports on a handheld unless it's a better version. It's usually PC > 360 > PS3, and now Vita will go at the end of that list. None of my friends would ever consider buying Call of Duty on the Vita.

 

[Beth Cyra]

Sorry I misread what you said, I thought you were talking about popularity and reception not sales

Popularity and Reception plays into that (sometimes).

This is a problem now with XII. As much as I and others love it, people are quick to forget that it had very similar problems to XIII when it launched and many many people in the fanbase both when it launched and now dislike the game.

Overall though, going off online popularity is dangerous. Many would think that IX, XII and Tactics would be the king of FF when in reality IX is the worst performing Offline main entry in the series.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Indeed, the 3DS has proven that you need a good 30% price drop to turn your fortunes around.

The price cut obviously helped, but I think the bulk of the 3DS's fortunes were thanks to the stellar software lineup that released during the holiday window.

Vita will need a price drop in the fall for Call of Duty -- absolutely. But realistically I'm expecting a price drop to $199.

 

[Father_Brain]

Indeed, the 3DS has proven that you need a good 30% price drop to turn your fortunes around.

...and not major software releases that are appealing to a mass market?

 

[cw_sasuke]

Indeed, the 3DS has proven that you need a good 30% price drop to turn your fortunes around.

3DS was overpriced, that's why they needed a price cut. The Vita price is fine for its offerings, I don't think that's the problem.

@Revelations
The game will sell for months and be a to go title for new 3DS owners - I wouldn't be suprised to see it sell over 500k in 2012. People are to hung up on first month sales they are used from AAA home console releases, where the handheld market has shown to embrace those quality games in a Diffrent way. Call of Duty on DS never charted but they still sold there couple 100k with every release.

 

[rockx4]

The price cut obviously helped, but I think the bulk of the 3DS's fortunes were thanks to the stellar software lineup that released during the holiday window.

Vita will need a price drop in the fall for Call of Duty -- absolutely. But realistically I'm expecting a price drop to $199.

Knowing Sony I think they'll first try to phase out the Wifi version and drop the 3G to $249 with a 4gb memory card.

 

[donny2112]

Don't forget to wind your watch.

Give my love to the princesses!

 

[pieatorium]

Vita will need a price drop in the fall for Call of Duty -- absolutely. But realistically I'm expecting a price drop to $199.

Yeah I don't see an early drop as likely but announcing a drop at E3 for around that time I think is the best bet.

 

[Skiesofwonder]

Seeing how March is a 5-week sales tracking period, I'd be a little surprised at 180K. I'm expecting somewhere in the range of 225K for March... roughly where it wound up for February but obviously not great considering you're comparing 4 days of sales against 5 weeks of sales and looking at similar numbers.

It will definitely be sub-200K in April. Even the 3DS failed to crack 200K last April and that was coming off a hotter launch and one in March at that.

I'm thinking 225K for March, somewhere in the range of 150K-160K for April, less than 150K for May. Something along those lines.
If it comes in around where Skiesofwonder is predicting, I'll consider Sony's video game division to be in its death throes.

Well I didn't know March NPD was a five week period, but I still think anything above 180k would be a good sign. I see it doing around 150k in that time period.

 

[bigtroyjon]

...and not major software releases that are appealing to a mass market?

Might be appealing to a mass market but they aren't driving most of the sales.

Super Mario 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 for Nintendo 3DS each sold more than 100,000 units, bringing the life-to-date totals to more than 1.85 million and 1.45 million respectively.

Each game is well under half the hardware sales.

 

[LOCK]

Great month hardware wise, but man software is kinda sad.

 

[rockx4]

Might be appealing to a mass market but they aren't driving most of the sales.


Each game is well under half the hardware sales.

3DS is at 4.5m in the US right? I don't think 40% for Mario 3D is "well under half".

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

3DS is at 4.5m in the US right? I don't think 40% for Mario 3D is "well under half".

Yeah, 40% attach ratio is pretty insane. That's a huge system seller. I should know! It sold me on a 3DS.

 

[pieatorium]

Each game is well under half the hardware sales.

Very few games do sell to half a userbase outside of launches.

 

[bigtroyjon]

It's a great attach ratio but there are a large number of 3DS owners that didn't buy their hardware because of those two games. Price cut played a big part in it's success.

 

[Gadfly]

Not last year... but I do remember Sony having momentum in late 2009-2010 only to be foiled by supply constraints.

Wasn't that 2006?

 

[OldJadedGamer]

That will be one long wait. Don't forget to wind your watch.

The same was said at the launch of the 3DS.

 

[pieatorium]

The same was said at the launch of the 3DS.

3DS was selling above manufacturing costs, from what sony has said the Vita is not.

 

[Petrae]

Great month hardware wise, but man software is kinda sad.

Console software was particularly dreadful, off by nearly 25% YOY. Portable was less so, at about -9%.

 

[fernoca]

@Revelations
The game will sell for months and be a to go title for new 3DS owners - I wouldn't be suprised to see it sell over 500k in 2012. People are to hung up on first month sales they are used from AAA home console releases, where the handheld market has shown to embrace those quality games in a Diffrent way. Call of Duty on DS never charted but they still sold there couple 100k with every release.

That's quite true also.
As of last year, there were over 56 million Nintendo DS in the US. Yet, aside the usual suspects (Mario, Pokémon); how many times we saw Nintendo DS games in the charts? Or selling enough to be in the Top 10 at specific months? Yet, is not like people were like "Oh oh..the third-party situation".

Though that technically applies to all consoles; but there's still the idea that because many or most games do the big chunk of sales during the debut month, that all games are like that.


Like, for example..here's a a random chart for from September 2004; on which the top selling hardware was the GBA:

HW
GBA $42,023,530 527,133
XBX $39,379,728 265,067
PS2 $38,046,609 253,295
GCN $11,387,827 114,789

ALL PLATFORMS
1 GBA POKEMON FIRERED W/ADP $21,065,130 684,283
2 XBX FABLE $29,948,580 604,084
3 GBA POKEMON LEAFGRN W/ADP $17,103,620 556,065
4 PS2 MADDEN NFL 2005 $14,226,930 288,747
5 XBX SW: BATTLEFRONT $13,395,470 275,186
6 PS2 SW: BATTLEFRONT $12,949,310 267,465
7 PS2 STAR OCEAN: TILL END $11,053,760 222,986
8 PS2 NBA LIVE 2005 $8,106,411 203,322
9 PS2 ESPN NFL 2K5 $3,956,769 203,101
10 PS2 TIGER WOODS PGA 2005 $8,297,772 169,657
11 PS2 NASCAR 2005:CHASE CUP $7,129,704 143,611
12 GCN PIKMIN 2 $6,583,169 132,618
13 XBX ESPN NFL 2K5 $2,481,845 128,226
14 XBX BURNOUT 3: TAKEDOWN $6,164,830 124,327
15 GCN WWE DAY OF RECKONING $6,070,188 122,168

And the individual charts for GBA games that month:

GBA
1 POKEMON FIRERED W/ADP $21,065,130 684,283
2 POKEMON LEAFGRN W/ADP $17,103,620 556,065
3 DRAGONBALL Z: BUU'S $1,752,800 59,085
4 YU-GI-OH! RESHEF $1,288,909 42,417
5 SPIDER-MAN:THE MOVIE2 $1,178,754 40,479
6 MARIO BROS 3: MARIO 4 $1,177,994 38,906
7 MARIO VS. DONKEY KONG $987,152 31,746
8 SUPER MARIO CLASSIC $627,966 31,599
9 TEENAGE MUTANT TURTLE $331,434 28,711
10 POKEMON RUBY $909,743 27,327
11 NAMCO MUSEUM $392,329 26,996
12 SONIC ADVANCE 3 $771,602 26,224
13 POKEMON SAPPHIRE $861,662 26,151
14 DISNEY'S FINDING NEMO $507,598 25,557
15 SHREK 2 $686,001 23,765

Yet, one might assume looking at those numbers that the GBA was not getting support, it had no games; everything was bombing.

 

[Petrae]

Wasn't that 2006?

PS3 Slim hit in 2nd half 2009 and sales picked up until late in the holiday season and first few months of 2010. My family got me a PS3 for my birthday in April of that year, but had to search high and low to find one due to shortages.

 

[Petrae]

The same was said at the launch of the 3DS.

Nintendo was able to weather the financial cost of such a drastic price drop, though the effects are still being felt. Sony is arguably not in the same kind of fiscal position to do so.

A price drop *could* happen, of course, but earliest I could see it would be November... out of necessity.

 

[SykoTech]

What confuses me is that alot of Nintendo fans claim that people don't want console styled experiences on handhelds, but then blame marketing when console styled games don't do well....

Haha, yeah. That never gets old. The main thing Nintendo fanatics used to say to troll the PSP is that "console experiences don't belong on a handheld". But now that Nintendo's finally gotten good enough hardware to handle console experiences (kinda), that sentiment has diminshed quite a bit. There's even people defending Revelaitons' pitiful sales. Had it been a PSP game, it would probably be used as evidence as to why console experiences should be on handhelds.

What a coincidence.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

3DS was selling above manufacturing costs, from what sony has said the Vita is not.

Selling systems at launch for a loss is not a new concept to the industry.

 

[Dash Kappei]

Hardware numbers for the 360 in the OP are completely fucked up?
Also missing 3DS and PS3 numbers.

 

[Metallix87]

Haha, yeah. That never gets old. The main thing Nintendo fanatics used to say to troll the PSP is that "console experiences don't belong on a handheld". But now that Nintendo's finally gotten good enough hardware to handle console experiences (kinda), that sentiment has diminshed quite a bit.

What a coincidence.

RER is tailored to be a handheld experience, though.

 

[Busaiku]

Haha, yeah. That never gets old. The main thing Nintendo fanatics used to say to troll the PSP is that "console experiences don't belong on a handheld". But now that Nintendo's finally gotten good enough hardware to handle console experiences (kinda), that sentiment has diminshed quite a bit.

What a coincidence.

I honestly never understood that sentiment.
I mean GBA was flooded with SNES ports.