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[Kuroyume]

While it was hyped on GAF, the general public had little to no clue that it was going to come out when it did. It missed its chance at the circulars, and I didn't see a single commercial.

Come on...

 

[FoneBone]

For one Nintendo consoles have a stigma that only 1st party titles sell... Microsoft should have none of these problems with Kinect and I'm sure they're already funding 3rd party games themselves to get the ball rolling.

That's a double-edged sword -- it makes a friendlier landscape for third parties, but not having any real equivalent of Nintendo's IPs won't do them favors as far as comparisons go.

 

[Baki]

competing with MS is going to be a lot easier than competing with Nintendo, plus MS have the leverage of great 360 software sales to lean on people a bit. Nintendo don't have anything equivalent to that.

but in answering your first question. no, i don't think kinect will sell without compelling software.

right now it has compelling software and right now it is selling.

it'll have a software drought that will last into the spring, shortages may smooth the sales over and keep them looking okay. it's going to be that second wave of software that makes or breaks it imho.

Sorry but the Xbox 360 has a great track record when it comes to selling a certain type of game. But when it comes to kid-friendly games, their records fall flat on their faces. In other words, MS has no legs to stand on when it comes to selling the type of games that the Kinect audience is targeted at.

 

[Vinci]

A $500M marketing campaign can give a platform the much needed push for a great debut. But without great software support, the platform will fizzle out.

I guess MS can continue giving companies financial incentives to develop for Kinect. But will that yield their A-Class or C-Class efforts?

Unless MS is providing a LOT of incentive, I'd imagine 3rd parties will turn out shit for Kinect. Software sells well enough on the platform without dealing with something so unproven. It certainly shouldn't get their A teams.

 

[Baki]

Unless MS is providing a LOT of incentive, I'd imagine 3rd parties will turn out shit for Kinect. Software sells well enough on the platform without dealing with something so unproven. It certainly shouldn't get their A teams.

I'm guessing the same.

We'll see during the next few months. I think the 2nd batch software really will make or break it for Kinect long term sustainability.

 

[Lebron]

To put it quite simply Kinect Adventures is not as good as Wii Sports. Now if Kinect Sports had been bundled than your statement might have held some weight.

I didn't really care much for Adventures either, but it was better than I thought it would be. Family, outside of my "what is this Disneyworld looking shit?" father, seemed to enjoy it a lot. How long that last is another story. I agree, though, they should have bundled Sports instead. Game is pretty solid.

 

[plagiarize]

Sorry but the Xbox 360 has a great track record when it comes to selling a certain type of game. But when it comes to kid-friendly games, their records fall flat on their faces. In other words, MS has no legs to stand on when it comes to selling the type of games that the Kinect audience is targeted at.

Kinect Adventures just walked into 1.5 million homes.

Kinect doesn't have that 'certain type of game' yet, and is selling despite a lack of a track record for family friendly games.

their track record is irrelavent when we have actual figures showing them selling millions of kinect based on the current software.

the current advertising is based on the current software lineup, and kinect is selling based on that.

 

[Rhindle]

Well Dance Central is #11 and Kinect Sports #12 of the individual SKU charts, with Your Shape and JoyRide not too far from them I'd guess, it's ok if the crap surrounding these games didn't sell well.

How much software sales did analyst expect for the first month of an accessory sold $150 with a game and demos included ?

Yeah, Kinect software sales are fine. The titles that deserve to sell well, are selling well.

The overall tie ratio is pretty good really for a launch month, considering that a lot of the hardware sales will have been gift items that won't result in software sales until after the holidays.

 

[Hiro_Kunimi_80]

Kinect hardware fared better, with Pachter saying about half of Xbox 360 hardware sales purchased in November were bundles including the camera peripheral, enough to outsell Sony's Move-equipped PS3 hardware bundles by a ratio of 5:1.

Can anyone do the math and figure out approximately how many Kinects were sold?

57 million $ / 50$ + tax and discount around 1 million pcs of software in 25 days..

consider that every kinect user get 1 game for free (adventures), and in november the user base (total) of kinect would be around 1.5million... imho is not so bad

 

[JesseZao]

Keep fighting the good fight warriors!

 

[FrankT]

What's the install base percentage of Kinect, anyone know?

About 6.4%.

 

[Mrbob]

I don't think it's that complicated really. $199 360 was a better deal for someone who wanted the lowest price but $299 PS3 was a better deal than the $299 360 with hard drive. Now the $299 Kinect bundle is a better deal than the $299 PS3 and it's helping to elevate 360 sales as a result. The value proposition between the two systems has always been relatively close and fairly minor shifts in either direction have been enough to tip the balance in the past.

The Xbox 360 arguably has a better bundle now too if you don't care about Blu Ray either at $299. You get a bigger hdd on the X360 (250) versus the PS3 (160). You get a head set in the $299 360 package still correct? The 360 also has wireless N wifi in this package. The holiday bundle isn't anything to write home about but MS did include two relatively current games in it as well with Alan Wake and Forza 3. MS was smart on attacking multiple fronts this holiday, as they all attributed to the high hardware sales total.

 

[Baki]

Kinect Adventures just walked into 1.5 million homes.

Kinect doesn't have that 'certain type of game' yet, and is selling despite a lack of a track record for family friendly games.

their track record is irrelavent when we have actual figures showing them selling millions of kinect based on the current software.

the current advertising is based on the current software lineup, and kinect is selling based on that.

Kinect adventures is bundled with the system.

Kinect is pretty much selling on pure hype alone*. When I ask people about what excites about Kinect, its not because of Kinect adventures or anything. Its because its cool that you can do stuff without a controller.

*Maybe exaggerating a bit. But I kid you not, the main draw of Kinect is the premise and not its library.

Regardless, the Wii has a much larger install base for the kind of games Kinect is trying to sell.

 

[PSGames]

Kinect adventures is bundled with the system.

Kinect is pretty much selling on pure hype alone*. When I ask people about what excites about Kinect, its not because of Kinect adventures or anything. Its because its cool that you can do stuff without a controller.

*Maybe exaggerating a bit. But I kid you not, the main draw of Kinect is the premise and not its library.

That is your opinion. Everybody that's been to my place has been sold because of the software.

Being able to do stuff without a controller wouldn't mean shit if Deca Motion Sports and Sonic Free Riders were the only titles for instance.

 

[FrankT]

The Xbox 360 arguably has a better bundle now too if you don't care about Blu Ray either at $299. You get a bigger hdd on the X360 (250) versus the PS3 (160). You get a head set in the $299 360 package still correct? The 360 also has wireless N wifi in this package. The holiday bundle isn't anything to write home about but MS did include two relatively current games in it as well with Alan Wake and Forza 3. MS was smart on attacking multiple fronts this holiday, as they all attributed to the high hardware sales total.

I think that is a great bundle. Really smart having Forza in there basically free for the holidays while GT5 was hitting as well. Alan Wake a good title to mix in as well. I bet the bundle did pretty well for November. Would be nice to have those numbers......Pachter.

 

[plagiarize]

Kinect adventures is bundled with the system.

Kinect is pretty much selling on pure hype alone*. When I ask people about what excites about Kinect, its not because of Kinect adventures or anything. Its because its cool that you can do stuff without a controller.

*Maybe exaggerating a bit. But I kid you not, the main draw of Kinect is the premise and not its library.

the premise is demonstrated with the current software though. when they show what kinect lets you do in the adverts, they show the existing games.

it's not like the adverts show you doing things with kinect that you cannot currently do in the current software.

the 'cool stuff' you can do, is what you can do in these games.

 

[Lebron]

Unless MS is providing a LOT of incentive, I'd imagine 3rd parties will turn out shit for Kinect. Software sells well enough on the platform without dealing with something so unproven. It certainly shouldn't get their A teams.

Eh, if I can get the occasional Your Shape or DC gems through the shit, I'll be happy. I would figure they will try to sway more developers since they are handling this as a new console, but who knows. The announcements at TGS made me hopeful.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

Wow, nice math there! Didn't expect to get something we could actually work with!

So looks like I was right then and the grand majority of Kinect's 2.5 million WW sales came from the US.

So that would be roughly 1.5 million in the US, roughly 0.8-0.9 in Europe and 0.2 (rough guess based on its poor Japanese sales) elsewhere. (as MS claimed 2.5 million Kinects being sold to consumers on Nov 29th)

 

[Kenka]

Latest news summed up :

NEW ! 03. Just Dance < 700k

.
.
.

NEW ! 11. Dance Central
NEW ! 12. Kinect Sports


http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/ht...013640686_xbox_kinect_push_game_sales_to.html

When games are ranked individually by platform, two Kinect titles almost made the top 10. "Dance Central" and "Kinect Sports" were number 11 and 12, according to David Dennis, Xbox group product manager.

Based on the Cod numbers there were 33.6 units of software sold. If the 4% is a unit number and not revenue then there would be 1.34 M units of Kinect software sold.

That would be pretty close to a 1 attach rate.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

But I kid you not, the main draw of Kinect is the premise and not its library.

Isn't that true to a great degree for any new (sub-)platform? I mean, the thing is technically a peripheral and those usually focus on adding something new and otherwise not quite possible without it to the host platform and/or device.

 

[FrankT]

Wow, nice math there! Didn't expect to get something we could actually work with!

So looks like I was right then and the grand majority of Kinect's 2.5 million WW sales came from the US.

So that would be roughly 1.5 million in the US, roughly 0.8-0.9 in Europe and 0.2 (rough guess based on its poor Japanese sales) elsewhere. (as MS claimed 2.5 million Kinects being sold to consumers on Nov 29th)

Right in the range yes.

 

[plagiarize]

I think that is a great bundle. Really smart having Forza in there basically free for the holidays while GT5 was hitting as well. Alan Wake a good title to mix in as well. I bet the bundle did pretty well for November. Would be nice to have those numbers......Pachter.

i think it's really smart that they made Alan Wake downloadable.

for two reasons: it forces people to take their console online and it also encourages people to play Alan Wake, since they can't just trade it in right away.

 

[Digital-Hero]

Wow, the PS3 did horrible in comparison to the other platforms. What the heck happened? They had good momentum this time last year.

 

[Nirolak]

Latest news summed up :

Are those individual SKU ranks or combined?

 

[PSGames]

Are those individual SKU ranks or combined?

Individual I believe.

Edit: Yep it says so right here: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/ht...013640686_xbox_kinect_push_game_sales_to.html

 

[Kenka]

Are those individual SKU ranks or combined?

individual according to the source.

edit : clarified with text from the source.

 

[Dave Long]

I think Microsoft has benefitted from Nintendo's strategy of turning more people into gamers. You don't sell all those Kinect bundles if Nintendo hasn't seeded the market with all those Wiis in the first place.

All boats rise with the tide.

 

[shinnn]

I'm expecting Kinect Sports ahead of Dance Central.

People need to buy Sports.. it's awesome

 

[Rush2thestart]

BIG UPDATE
http://www.gamespot.com/news/6285170.html



Pachter's estimation: CoD 14m WW

For the new page:
http://www.gamespot.com/news/6285163.html

Thanks for the update... but good lord someone just spill the beans on Goldeneye already! :lol

They went as far as mentioning how much DJ Hero 2 and Bloodstone 007 bombed (both Activision games), and didn't say a peep about Goldeneye...

 

[apana]

I think Microsoft has benefitted from Nintendo's strategy of turning more people into gamers. You don't sell all those Kinect bundles if Nintendo hasn't seeded the market with all those Wiis in the first place.

All boats rise with the tide.

Maybe, but strong Wii sales seem to indicate that they are taking more of the audience that would have probably purchased a PS3.

 

[Lebron]

Kinect adventures is bundled with the system.

Kinect is pretty much selling on pure hype alone*. When I ask people about what excites about Kinect, its not because of Kinect adventures or anything. Its because its cool that you can do stuff without a controller.

*Maybe exaggerating a bit. But I kid you not, the main draw of Kinect is the premise and not its library.

So you're going to use that early Wii argument, then? Not attacking you, but it's silly stating it's all hype. People may be initially pulled in by the lack of a controller, since it separates itself from the competition. To say, though, that the actual games don't have any impact at all is being unfair. People have posted plenty of impressions stating how they won people over after letting them play DC, or Adventures, or Sports, etc. I would say that for a lot it's both the premise, and some select games, that win people over. You can't really isolate one over the other. It would not be selling as well if all the games were garbage and unresponsive. People would be intrigued then quickly lose interest due to the frustration if that were the case.

 

[Bumblebeetuna]

Man, MS is killing it. Why would PS3 numbers be so far down YoY in the shopping season? Was there a big price drop or something last year I don't remember about? AND it's the month GT5 finally launches? Yikes.

 

[brotkasten]

i think it's really smart that they made Alan Wake downloadable.

for two reasons: it forces people to take their console online and it also encourages people to play Alan Wake, since they can't just trade it in right away.

Can't you just sell the download code on ebay?

 

[Forkball]

Wow Donkey Kong put up some great and surprising numbers. I kind of underestimated it since it's been so long since many people considered Donkey Kong to be a top franchise for Nintendo, but it looks like it caught a second wind. If only the same could be said about Metroid and Kirby...

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

I think Microsoft has benefitted from Nintendo's strategy of turning more people into gamers. You don't sell all those Kinect bundles if Nintendo hasn't seeded the market with all those Wiis in the first place.

All boats rise with the tide.

Of course they have. Kinect is aimed straight at people who starting playing games with the Wii/DS.

Whether or not they can sustain these sales after Xmas is another story though. They don't exactly have much of a lineup in the following months up till E3.

 

[Nirolak]

I think I got everything new in the OP.

Thanks everyone.

If I missed anything, please point it out.

 

[Lebron]

Nice to see Kinect Sports doing well too. Second best game behind DC.

 

[jamesinclair]

Good sales for Udraw.

It should do nicely in December.

Of coruse, video game "journalists" have done their best to ignore it

 

[metareferential]

Maybe, but strong Wii sales seem to indicate that they are taking more of the audience that would have probably purchased a PS3.

This is pure speculation on your part.

We don't know how large the market actually is.

What matters to Microsoft is that they are indeed expanding the audience.

 

[plagiarize]

Can't you just sell the download code on ebay?

of course you can but you can do that with any packed in game already. this limits your options and i'm sure will get a number of people to try it that wouldn't have otherwise.

 

[Kenka]

Creamsugar, are you still alive ?

 

[Dave Long]

Maybe, but strong Wii sales seem to indicate that they are taking more of the audience that would have probably purchased a PS3.

I think the appeal of Kinect over Move is the lack of a controller, and Microsoft has pushed that with their $500 million marketing campaign.

I'm pretty sure that alone seals the deal if you're an adult former non-gamer looking to upgrade your Wii or get something "similar" but different. Anecdotally, hearing my brother say "Kinect is like the Wii, but the graphics are so much better!" pretty much explained the appeal of it regardless of software quality now or down the road.

It's the new toy that's kind of like the Wii and "the graphics are better!" Nintendo has done what they set out to do, converted people into "gamers" and I think Microsoft is benefiting from it while Nintendo just keeps on truckin', largely thanks to a still pretty low price and some nice bundles.

 

[Lebron]

Wow Donkey Kong put up some great and surprising numbers. I kind of underestimated it since it's been so long since many people considered Donkey Kong to be a top franchise for Nintendo, but it looks like it caught a second wind. If only the same could be said about Metroid and Kirby...

It's because it has the "Donkey Kong Country" Returns in the title. They saw that and knew that the greatest Kong game and one of the best games on the SNES was finally getting an actual sequel and whipped out their wallets and threw it at the cashier.


edit: can't believe I misspelled whipped. Been a long day

 

[Boney]

Man, MS is killing it. Why would PS3 numbers be so far down YoY in the shopping season? Was there a big price drop or something last year I don't remember about? AND it's the month GT5 finally launches? Yikes.

Uhhh, last year, they released the Slim.

 

[szaromir]

Unless MS is providing a LOT of incentive, I'd imagine 3rd parties will turn out shit for Kinect. Software sells well enough on the platform without dealing with something so unproven. It certainly shouldn't get their A teams.

Of course Microsoft are providing a lot of incentive, they were never exactly shy about handing out moneyhats to support their new platforms (in fact, that's where the term moneyhat come from, from Penny Arcade comic board about MS-Oddworld collaboration ). That probably isn't changing with Kinect.

 

[JaxJag]

Wow, the PS3 did horrible in comparison to the other platforms. What the heck happened? They had good momentum this time last year.

The PS3's lineup ended up being pretty poor this year.

I think that has a lot to do with it.

 

[manueldelalas]

I think I got everything new in the OP.

Thanks everyone.

If I missed anything, please point it out.

NBA2k11, Wii Fit Plus, Halo Reach, Dance Central and Kinect Sports all sold more than uDraw =190k.

The Harry Potter game in the OP is the Xbox 360 version.

 

[Zoe]

Uhhh, last year, they released the Slim.

+ I don't recall seeing any great BF deals.

 

[Mindlog]

All boats rise with the tide.

Well, not all boats.

I guess there was no big impact on average selling price. It would have been mentioned already. That would still be a big news item. Weird to see absolutely no mention of it yet.

 

[Lebron]

The PS3's lineup ended up being pretty poor this year.

I think that has a lot to do with it.

I think they also didn't have a great number of deals floating around this year. Was trying to help friend get a good deal, but it seemed like there were slim pickings as far as deals went. He eventually bought one off Amazon, I think.