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[GHG]

Imagine taking investing advice from NeoGAF

That's probably one tier below taking investing advice from Reddit

I've held my NVDA since 2012 and my TSLA since 2017 and I give zero fucks

Most people don't get in on these things (and remain in them) that far in advance of these parabolic moves, and therein lies the reason why people have anxiety about how long they should hold on for. You have no reason to worry, but everyone who bought in after the hype will think about it, and with good reason.

For example everyone who bought Tesla between June 2021 and October 2022 is currently underwater. That kind of experience leaves scars and people talk about it more than the people who buy long before these things get hot and hold on to them. Every other year there's a new stock (or investing theme) like this.

 

[FalsettoVibe]

 

[A.Romero]

Well you've just summed it up yourself there, narratives drive markets.

What is now being said of Nvidia was once said about Tesla when it was the hot thing in the market:

Tesla teardown finds electronics 6 years ahead of Toyota and VW

Self-driving AI sends shivers through traditional supply chains

asia.nikkei.com

Elon (and some tesla fan circles) keep on trying to pump the same narrative, but it's no longer as effective since people don't believe it anymore. Why? Because their earnings growth is no longer in harmony with that.

With Nvidia the narrative and the revenue growth remain very much in harmony, and until that changes it will continue to go up. But the question is, what happens when the narrative that Nvidia are "untouchable" becomes broken and the market starts questioning it?

The thing with Tesla is that they couldn't reach mass market fast enough and I would even argue that their operational capabilities were not up to par.

Nvidia is not a new business and the demand they are filling is only increasing. On top of that nobody is even close to them in terms of their offerings. I think your starting point is that Nvidia's narrative is fake or shaky but I don't see any signs of that (I'm in the IT/AI industry). Quite the opposite, Nvidia tech is ahead of any other competitor and in some aspects by quite a margin.

 

[GHG]

The thing with Tesla is that they couldn't reach mass market fast enough and I would even argue that their operational capabilities were not up to par.

The biggest issue with Tesla and EV's in general is an infrastructure one. Until most customers have the means to charge their cars at or near their home then adoption will continue to lag expectations.

They can make as many cars as they want, but unless the consumers are snapping them up then their growth will never return to their previous surge. It was always going to level out at some point, whether it was because of their own production pipeline being the bottleneck or from a customer demand standpoint.

Nvidia is not a new business and the demand they are filling is only increasing. On top of that nobody is even close to them in terms of their offerings. I think your starting point is that Nvidia's narrative is fake or shaky but I don't see any signs of that (I'm in the IT/AI industry). Quite the opposite, Nvidia tech is ahead of any other competitor and in some aspects by quite a margin.

Not at all. The market is assuming their current earnings tragectory will continue for multiple years (that's whats currently being priced in). The issue is that historically these narratives never last forever, there is always a turning point. Whether it's their revenue growth starting to slow or from a "story" perspective (or both at the same time, which would be devastating), we don't know yet. But until something changes, it remains a buy.

 

[MikeM]

The thing with Tesla is that they couldn't reach mass market fast enough and I would even argue that their operational capabilities were not up to par.

Nvidia is not a new business and the demand they are filling is only increasing. On top of that nobody is even close to them in terms of their offerings. I think your starting point is that Nvidia's narrative is fake or shaky but I don't see any signs of that (I'm in the IT/AI industry). Quite the opposite, Nvidia tech is ahead of any other competitor and in some aspects by quite a margin.

Nvidia is supply constrained and the rest of the market can’t provide anything close to what Nvidia provides from what I understand. I wish AMD could compete better- its stock continues to tumble lately (I own both).

 

[Varteras]

Most people don't get in on these things (and remain in them) that far in advance of these parabolic moves, and therein lies the reason why people have anxiety about how long they should hold on for.

For example everyone who bought Tesla between June 2021 and October 2022 is currently underwater. That kind of experience leaves scars and people talk about it more than the people who buy long before these things get hot and hold on to them.

My stocks are in companies I'm confident are stable and not losing relevance any time soon, and a fair amount of tech shares in companies that are clear front runners in AI and such. I just think it's funny when people tell me I don't know what I'm doing. Then I watch as the stocks keep climbing in companies I carefully invested in. I may, in fact, have some idea of what I'm doing. Like when I told my buddy to invest in Kodak during the pandemic because the government just approved them an $800 million package to invest in pharma. I told him buy and then sell after a day or two. He's still kicking himself for not listening.

 

[twilo99]

No way right

 

[AtomicStarving]

I mean, chatgpt is killing search engines for me, and it's by far the best tool for learning and do things faster. That's fucking something...

It will be a common feature of smartphones in the near future, just like the camera.

 

[A.Romero]

The biggest issue with Tesla and EV's in general is an infrastructure one. Until most customers have the means to charge their cars at or near their home then adoption will continue to lag expectations.

They can make as many cars as they want, but unless the consumers are snapping them up then their growth will never return to their previous surge. It was always going to level out at some point, whether it was because of their own production pipeline being the bottleneck or from a customer demand standpoint.



Not at all. The market is assuming their current earnings tragectory will continue for multiple years (that's whats currently being priced in). The issue is that historically these narratives never last forever, there is always a turning point. Whether it's their revenue growth starting to slow or from a "story" perspective (or both at the same time, which would be devastating), we don't know yet. But until something changes, it remains a buy.

Yeah, infrastructure has been an issue and will probably continue to be an issue for a while. Tesla arrived early and pushed tech forward a lot but the market couldn't follow through. Now other manufacturers have pretty competitive offerings in that space (with the same restrictions in terms of infrastructure) so Tesla missed the potential of being a single player in the market.

Nobody said Nvidia's trajectory will last forever but it doesn't mean it has to end soon. I mean, look at other tech companies that have been performed very well for decades. Google has had dips but is performing well, facebook and apple too... You could argue, for example, that Intel is on the ground right now but it grew for many years before hitting the issues they are hitting now. Personally I believe we are barely scratching the surface of this new market and so far Nvidia is the strongest player.

Nvidia is supply constrained and the rest of the market can’t provide anything close to what Nvidia provides from what I understand. I wish AMD could compete better- its stock continues to tumble lately (I own both).

Yes, you understand well in both accounts. Nvidia strength is not coming from their GPU's per se but from their AI offerings which is their main focus right now (and probably will be until the end). AWS and Intel are more insteresting threats to Nvidia but they are still lagging behind.

A few years ago I told my younger brother to get into Nvidia but he opted for AMD, he was very optimistic about it. I don't want to go and tell him "I told you so". His decision was based on his love for the brand.

 

[Sgt.Asher]

The top is when cathy woods jumps back in.

 

[a multicultural team of v]

The top is when cathy woods jumps back in.

Bingo

 

[Jinzo Prime]

The top is when cathy woods jumps back in.

Is there a reverse Cathy Woods ETF?

 

[Ozzie666]

Imagine how many cards they could sell if they dropped their price for the everyday PC gamer.

 

[Badlucktroll]

Yikes!

Nvidia overtakes Microsoft to become world's most valuable public company

A so-called stock split has been credited with driving the chipmaker's value further into the stratosphere, 12 days after it claimed the number two spot from Apple.

news.sky.com

 

[GigaBowser]

I mean, chatgpt is killing search engines for me, and it's by far the best tool for learning and do things faster. That's fucking something...

It will be a common feature of smartphones in the near future, just like the camera.

makin me become genius my friends

 

[EverydayBeast]

Its stock shares anyone could be #1 tomorrow

 

[DaleinCalgary]

Sell now!

No way

 

[mrqs]

I bought Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, TSMC and Apple a few weeks ago. I decided to trust that this AI surge will only get bigger, something I though since many years ago but never had the courage to take action.


Let's enjoy the ride. The next 5 years will be insane, but the 10 years after that will be about as sci-fi the world can get before society reboots itself.

 

[A.Romero]

I bought Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, TSMC and Apple a few weeks ago. I decided to trust that this AI surge will only get bigger, something I though since many years ago but never had the courage to take action.


Let's enjoy the ride. The next 5 years will be insane, but the 10 years after that will be about as sci-fi the world can get before society reboots itself.

This right here.

I'm 40 and I'm happy I'm getting to see all of this.

 

[tusharngf]

No way right

there is a difference between CISCO and NVIDIA. One is really ahead of the race

 

[Tiago Rodrigues]

I bought Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, TSMC and Apple a few weeks ago. I decided to trust that this AI surge will only get bigger, something I though since many years ago but never had the courage to take action.


Let's enjoy the ride. The next 5 years will be insane, but the 10 years after that will be about as sci-fi the world can get before society reboots itself.

I'm about to start to invest...are these companies you mentioned still good right now (as in the next 2 weeks) or is it too late to buy stock from Nvidia right now?

I hate how most info i get online seems like every article has its own different agenda and i have no idea on what to buy. Is there any place for me to get more info on buying stocks?

 

[Sleepwalker]

I'm about to start to invest...are these companies you mentioned still good right now (as in the next 2 weeks) or is it too late to buy stock from Nvidia right now?

I hate how most info i get online seems like every article has its own different agenda and i have no idea on what to buy. Is there any place for me to get more info on buying stocks?

if you want to invest, as long as you believe in the fundamentals of a company you just buy and forget, and set up regular buys every x amount of time.

If you want to trade then that's when you should worry about short term price action and wanting to time the market.

So before dropping cash on stocks, set your expectations and decide if you want to be an investor who hold his stock for long timeframes (where short term price action matters less). Or someone who wants to try and make money quick from short term pumps.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Lol this bubble will take the whole sp500 together.

Going to be a pretty big impact once the AI hype is over.

So many tech names are flying due to this supposed pixie dust, valuations getting stretched. Could be due for another dead decade

 

[Sgt.Asher]

Is there a reverse Cathy Woods ETF?

Not that I know of lol. Just gotta reverse her yourself.

 

[Singular7]

Dollar obliterated with 70% of circulating $ created after 2020

Just buy and ignore as the global economic order melts down from repercussion of lockdown.

History as it happens friends, tulip bubbles, crashing empire, etc

Long everything, slowly accumulate!

 

[Griffon]

Sell the peak.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

I'm about to start to invest...are these companies you mentioned still good right now (as in the next 2 weeks) or is it too late to buy stock from Nvidia right now?

I hate how most info i get online seems like every article has its own different agenda and i have no idea on what to buy. Is there any place for me to get more info on buying stocks?

First rule is trust no one. As you already noticed, literally everyone has their own agenda. Your agenda is very simple: Make money.

Once you realize that no one can be trusted, then you understand the one you must trust is yourself. That's your first step towards becoming an investor.

 

[cinnamonandgravy]

holding a bunch of shares, but i dont even have an exit strategy/target price for nvidia anymore. it's just been a constant stream of good news for them, month after month, it's wild.

nvidia has this valuation selling physical products, which is wild too. they cant produce enough, no one else's hardware is anywhere as good, theyre likely to continue producing the best hardware for years and years to come, their software is mature, theyre likely to be key players in other AI-affected markets like robotics, jensen seems to genuinely enjoy his work, etc etc

then again, everyone and their mom is invested in nvidia, the entire stock market is basically nvidia, AI hype > actual useful crap, and if AI hype starts stumbling... eek

it's all wild. could pop, or could go up another 10x (at which point jensen is crowned permanent US CTO and gifted the state of montana).

 

[Boss Mog]

You can bet your ass that gaming GPUs will be an even lower priority for them. When you have limited fab slots you're gonna want to use em to make your most profitable items, in their case, their AI accelerators.

 

[nowhat]

I mean, chatgpt is killing search engines for me, and it's by far the best tool for learning and do things faster. That's fucking something...

It will be a common feature of smartphones in the near future, just like the camera.

Except, it isn't aware of current events, and can output absolute nonsense. But hey, at least you are learning. Something.

 

[Midn1ght]

 

[twilo99]

I mean, chatgpt is killing search engines for me, and it's by far the best tool for learning and do things faster. That's fucking something...

It will be a common feature of smartphones in the near future, just like the camera.

ios18 , macOS, and windows are packed with “AI” features so yeah.. it’s definitely something.

 

[Kataploom]

The speed at which this is happening makes me think of it as some kind of bubble, if it is, it's gonna be one of the most painful in history

 

[Desprado123]

Before AMD buying out ATI, they first put an offer for Nvidia to be bought out however, agreement was almost 100% but the issue that made no deal was that Jensen said that he will have to be made AMD CEO but AMD rejected the offer and than they buy out ATI.

Later, Intel tried same trick to buy Nvidia in 2010 but again same demand and same result deal did not went through.

Later in 2013, Market reacted that AMD got all the deals next gen Console (At that time next gen Console PS4 and Xbox One), AMD share went from $ 10 to $15 and Nvidia $13 to $8.

 

[Nankatsu]

Me about to buy an AMD GPU:

 

[crackajack]

Going to be a pretty big impact once the AI hype is over.

So many tech names are flying due to this supposed pixie dust, valuations getting stretched. Could be due for another dead decade

It either is what they hope and tons of jobs will go pretty much extinct or it will burst if the promised future does not happen as fast as they hope. Either way, it will probably be quite disastrous for most western societies.

 

[Hudo]

Man, I should've bought some shares years ago....

 

[Unknown?]

I mean, chatgpt is killing search engines for me, and it's by far the best tool for learning and do things faster. That's fucking something...

It will be a common feature of smartphones in the near future, just like the camera.

Yes, just let critical thinking and research cease because some lousy AI told you so. These AI are still fairly stupid and only allowed to answer things they were programmed to/only as good as the info they have had curated to them.

 

[Cyberpunkd]

For example everyone who bought Tesla between June 2021 and October 2022 is currently underwater. That kind of experience leaves scars and people talk about it more than the people who buy long before these things get hot and hold on to them. Every other year there's a new stock (or investing theme) like this.

Data shows over long period of time index funds will vastly outperform any short-term stock picking, but this is the type of easy but lengthy thing to do people don't want to hear about. They want to get stock at $1 that can be at $20 a year later.

 

[Ellery]

I hate Wall Street and their soulsucking media machine being the absolute conmen.

Always the same of getting idiots to buy at the top whilst the smart boys exit the game on high liquidity.

 

[Schmendrick]

Data shows over long period of time index funds will vastly outperform any short-term stock picking, but this is the type of easy but lengthy thing to do people don't want to hear about. They want to get stock at $1 that can be at $20 a year later.

pfff
I´m up 250k this year alone just by "stock picking" as you call it with my play-money (80k with Nvidia alone).
Ofc it`s betting to some degree, but so far I´ve vastly outperformed my index fund bound assets with my "stock picking" in the last decade. I´d bet your Data includes mostly the usual "i`ve read some article and bought xy" type of hobby brokers. Those obviously will lose their bets more often than not.

 

[Badlucktroll]

Sentient AI when? Is it possible? I would expect that it happens on accident

 

[TheRedRiders]

Sentient AI when? Is it possible? I would expect that it happens on accident

Chuckles in "one of the greatest scientific debates for the past century". The theory was that if we pump computers (including AI) with enough computational power then sentience would naturally emerge... but it just hasn't happened much to the disappointment of many. Then that begs the question "what exactly is sentience and where does it emerge from the human brain", and that's another can of worms because we don't have a full answer to that either.

A little off topic, apologies.

 

[Diddy X]

I don't think it's a bubble, I mean those AI features on the Galaxy phones are a joke it has a lot of space to grow.

 

[Mister Wolf]

Sentient AI when? Is it possible? I would expect that it happens on accident

Skynet's Avatar will be Jensen.

 

[Badlucktroll]

Chuckles in "one of the greatest scientific debates for the past century". The theory was that if we pump computers (including AI) with enough computational power then sentience would naturally emerge... but it just hasn't happened much to the disappointment of many. Then that begs the question "what exactly is sentience and where does it emerge from the human brain", and that's another can of worms because we don't have a full answer to that either.

A little off topic, apologies.

My theory is that sentience works like a cyclotron, the interaction of neurons, creating the effect of conciousness

 

[Sentenza]

Chuckles in "one of the greatest scientific debates for the past century". The theory was that if we pump computers (including AI) with enough computational power then sentience would naturally emerge... but it just hasn't happened much to the disappointment of many.

I'd say it's pretty much the other way around.

Everyone laughed for years (if not even decades) at the notion this approach would bring any fruit and some of the technical solutions suggested (neural networks and so on) were considered useless and inefficient...
Until suddenly one day the hardware had progressed to a point the system became viable. Then from somewhat viable it wasn't long before we got to the point it started to bear results no one predicted.
Now with transformers and LLM (large language models) we are witnessing some of these "overly simplistic concepts" bring almost daily results and emergent properties we are still struggling to understand to their fullest.

You still have reductionists who attempt to dismiss the whole thing as "It's just auto-complete on steroids" who stumble to explain why this "same auto-complete you have in your phone" suddenly is starting to develop the apparent capability to understand context, answer questions in natural language and a contextually-appropriate manner, etc.
And according to many we are still far away from seeing the scaling limits of this current paradigma (meaning that even just "throwing more hardware at it" still has a lot of room for bringing new results), let alone whatever could replace it or add to it in the next few years.

 

[Sentenza]

Sentient AI when? Is it possible? I would expect that it happens on accident

It's a philosophical (and technical) debate going on for almost a century at this point.
Some people argue it may be just a matter of scale and computational power, other suggest that there may be something unique about organic brains that simply can't be replicated artificially.

So far the first group has been collecting a long series of small wins, constantly redefining what a machine can or can't achieve, but for all we know this progress may be on its way to hit an insurmountable wall just behind the corner at any moment in the next few years and the second group would have the last laugh.

Anyway, my personal guess would be that IF "true AI" (or AGI, as they call it now) will be achieved at any point in the next few years or decades, it won't be a "planned scenario" and it will come as a complete surprise even to its manufacturers.

 

[Badlucktroll]

It's a philosophical (and technical) debate going on for almost a century at this point.
Some people argue it may be just a matter of scale and computational power, other suggest that there may be something unique about organic brains that simply can't be replicated artificially.

So far the first group has been collecting a long series of small wins, constantly redefining what a machine can or can't achieve, but for all we know this progress may be on its way to hit an insurmountable wall just behind the corner at any moment in the next few years and the second group would have the last laugh.

Anyway, my personal guess would be that IF "true AI" (or AGI, as they call it now) will be achieved at any point in the next few years or decades, it won't be a "planned scenario" and it will come as a complete surprise even to its manufacturers.

I bet they will make fake sentience that simulates it but isnt actually swelf aware

 

[dave_d]

I'd say it's pretty much the other way around.

Everyone laughed for years (if not even decades) at the notion this approach would bring any fruit and some of the technical solutions suggested (neural networks and so on) were considered useless and inefficient...
Until suddenly one day the hardware had progressed to a point the system became viable. Then from somewhat viable it wasn't long before we got to the point it started to bear results no one predicted.
Now with transformers and LLM (large language models) we are witnessing some of these "overly simplistic concepts" bring almost daily results and emergent properties we are still struggling to understand to their fullest.

You still have reductionists who attempt to dismiss the whole thing as "It's just auto-complete on steroids" who stumble to explain why this "same auto-complete you have in your phone" suddenly is starting to develop the apparent capability to understand context, answer questions in natural language and a contextually-appropriate manner, etc.
And according to many we are still far away from seeing the scaling limits of this current paradigma (meaning that even just "throwing more hardware at it" still has a lot of room for bringing new results), let alone whatever could replace it or add to it in the next few years.

Pretty much. I mean just machine vision is a big thing already. I worked at one company that had body scanners that used machine vision to find threats on people that were scanned with it and that's in airports today.(They used Nvidia) Also I interviewed at a medical tech company that was using machine vision to scan pathology plates to find cancer cells in biopsy to help pathologists improve their ability to diagnose cancers in patients. And of course my big hope, using AI to finally develop self driving cars would be a game changer. I mean from what I'm seeing is that most people don't actually like driving and would prefer to do anything else. On top of that a huge percentage of people are terrible drivers and can't do even the most basic tasks, like taking a turn, correctly it only makes me want to see self driving cars that much more.

So you're right, AI is finding things every day now. Might it work out like the internet where at first it seemed like a toy, the bubble burst, and then we found tons of stuff to do with it? (I doubt it's going away but who's going to be on top at the end?)