CreatureX3 said:
Do your calculations take into consideration that some Wii owners may not even have internet access to purchase VC games?
To the best of my understanding, yes. Even if only 4 out of 10 Wii owners could go online, and only 2 of those 4 became VC buyers, the numbers should keep looking better. Here's an example model (again, going by the best of my understanding):
400k Wiis sold per month
160k Wii buyers have internet access (this actually isn't that relevant, but I'll toss it in there)
80k Wii buyers buy VC games, and they buy VC games at a rate of 1 game per month for every month they own a Wii
Month 1: 400k Wiis, 80k VC games, tie ratio 0.2
Month 2: (lifetime) 800k Wiis, (lifetime) 240k VC games, tie ratio 0.3
Month 3: 1.2 million Wiis, 480k VC games, tie ratio 0.4
Month 4: 1.6 million Wiis, 800k VC games, tie ratio 0.5
Month 5: 2 million Wiis, 1.2 million VC games, tie ratio 0.6
Month 6: 2.4 million Wiis, 1.68 million VC games, tie ratio 0.7
This example relies on the idea that both old Wii owners and new Wii owners are buying VC games at about the same rate. Let's change the model and say that VC customers buy 2 VC games, but they
only buy them in the same month that they got their Wii (without returning for more later).
Month 1: 400k Wiis, 160k VC games, tie ratio 0.4
Month 2: 800k Wiis, 320k VC games, tie ratio 0.4
Month 3: 1.2 million Wiis, 480k VC games, tie ratio 0.4
Month 4: 1.6 million Wiis, 640k VC games, tie ratio 0.4
Month 5: 2 million Wiis, 800k VC games, tie ratio 0.4
Month 6: 2.4 million Wiis, 960k VC games, tie ratio 0.4
That could be more like what's going on. New Wii owners go onto the shop channel once and then never look at the service again, so the sales are pretty consistent.
Another possibility is that only the hardcore are buying games. For this hypothetical, assume that the hardcore buy one and a half VC games per month every month, that they're the ones who bought in the first two months, and that after that point there are no new VC buyers. (For whatever reason, i.e. it's getting easier to find Wiis, so more casual people who don't know about the existence of VC are buying the hardware.)
Month 1: 400k Wiis, 120k VC games, tie ratio 0.3
Month 2: 800k Wiis, 360k VC games, tie ratio 0.45
Month 3: 1.2 million Wiis, 600k VC games, tie ratio 0.5
Month 4: 1.6 million Wiis, 840k VC games, tie ratio 0.525
Month 4: 2 million Wiis, 1.08 million VC games, tie ratio 0.54
Month 5: 2.4 million Wiis, 1.32 million VC games, tie ratio 0.55
Month 6: 2.8 million Wiis, 1.56 million VC games, tie ratio 0.557
That could also be something like what's happening. In this version of the story, newer Wii buyers aren't in on the VC market, so it's being upheld only by the early adopters. It's not a possibility I like. The first hypothetical is what I want to be true: both new Wii buyers and old Wii buyers are looking into VC every month.
And here's (I think) an entirely separate argument on why I'm not happy with the sales yet.
The standard Wii Points amount is 2000, and it's utterly impossible to be unable to afford at least two games with that. In fact, unless a person's first VC title is Sin and Punishment, it's impossible to not be able to afford at least
three games. Granted, if a person buys an N64 game, they'd have to buy two other NES games to fit three games into 2000 points, but I don't think that's too unlikely since NES games have been pretty dominant sales-wise. Take a look at
the most popular chart from last week, or
the week before that, or
the week before that, or
the week before that, or
the week before that. At the very least, NES games are performing well enough for me to feel safe thinking that the average VC buyer will pick up ~2.5 games on a single standard Wii points card.
(Incidentally, soon enough Master System will join in on the 500-point fun to make it even more likely that people will buy three games with 2000 points, but I'm just talking about the past for now. Also, I realize that those most popular titles figures are only going by one region; I don't know how it's working out worldwide. It could be that Europe just adores N64 and constantly uses 2000 points to buy two N64 games. Or it could be that worldwide figures tilt the argument even more in my favor because of Japan, where TG16 was a much more succesful system and where Genesis games only cost 600, allowing combos of, say, SNES/Genesis/Genesis or TGCD/TG16/Genesis or NES/Genesis/SNES to fit into 2000 points. I think the Japan scenario is more likely, but I'm just simplifying for now since I don't have evidence for either one.)
Here's the thing. Even assuming that on average only 2 out of every 10 Wii owners get into VC, and they pick up 2.5 games each, and
they only do so once in their lifetime, the tie ratio for VC games would be exactly 0.5, which is--coincidence--almost exactly what the tie ratio is in reality. But it could be that the situation is even worse. It could be that only 1 out of every 10 Wii buyers pick up VC games, but on average they pick up 5 of them over their lifetime of system ownership. Or it could be that 1 out of every 20 Wii buyers pick up VC games, but buy 10 of them on average.
No matter which of those possibilities was the closest to the truth, I don't like it and don't think it's good enough. More growth should be happening, and I want to see these numbers higher than they are.
On the side of optimism, the combined efforts of Brawl and Wii Ware might help spread some awareness (I'm being really optimistic mentioning Wii Ware here since I'm not sure how well I trust Nintendo to promote that service, even though I personally very much want it to succeed), and those haven't been released worldwide yet, so maybe the numbers will look better next time around. I definitely hope that turns out to be the case, for one very significant reason: if the sales of VC games improve, maybe the efforts of both third-party developers and (especially) Nintendo will do so as well.