Official NFL Week 1 Thread: It's the start of something....Special.

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iapetus said:
No. Coaching experience and other subjective things don't come into it at all. Their projections have LJ taking a pretty massive fall in production, based on the fact that most backs who rush as many times as he did last season have a big drop off (or injury) the following year.
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ioi does football said:
Offense, defense, and special teams DVOA are all projected separately using a system based on 2000-2006 numbers. The equations include a number of variables based on performance over the past two seasons in different splits (by down, passing vs. rushing, red zone vs. whole field) plus variables based on recent draft history, injury history, offensive and defensive pace, coaching experience, quarterback experience, and even weather. Strength of schedule was then figured based on the average projected total DVOA of all 16 opponents for 2007 (yes, projected performance, not 2006 performance).
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Yeah....no. It's not a legitimate projection. It is just stats and random adjustments made to make what the designer intends appear legit. I compare it to something similar to what ioi did on the gaming side with his vg chartz bullshit.

I agree with the potential LJ fall off in production, but the way that they're throwing random things, as if there is some magic formula or string theory that can tie everything together, is haphazard and absurd. Again, things could very well turn out exactly the way he predicts, but this projection has very little basis in reality.
 
PantherLotus said:
Yeah....no. It's not a legitimate projection. It's stats and random adjustments made to make what the designer intends appear legit. I compare it to something similar to what ioi did on the gaming side with his ******** bullshit.
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No. Feel free to disagree with its results (because obviously they won't always be right) but to describe it like that is just a combination of sour grapes and ignorance. Hell, go to the effort of actually reading the full article rather than just bitching and moaning because your favourite team is ranked low and you'll see there are cases where the author of the article disagrees with its predictions because of things that can't be represented by a statistical model, or because gut feeling and football knowledge go against what raw stats do.

But to misrepresent the work FO do as some sort of false statistical analysis where they tweak the figures until they get the results they want is just a bad joke. And to claim they tweak it until it 'appears legit' when the predictions are - in some cases - so far from common wisdom just shows you haven't thought your case through.
 
Gigglepoo said:
Everyone is laughing at the Saints holding the Eagles to 13 points, right?
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Er.....more like the Colts losing the AFC championship game and then losing the Super Bowl somehow.
 
iapetus said:
No. Feel free to disagree with its results (because obviously they won't always be right) but to describe it like that is just a combination of sour grapes and ignorance. Hell, go to the effort of actually reading the full article rather than just bitching and moaning because your favourite team is ranked low and you'll see there are cases where the author of the article disagrees with its predictions because of things that can't be represented by a statistical model, or because gut feeling and football knowledge go against what raw stats do.

But to misrepresent the work FO do as some sort of false statistical analysis where they tweak the figures until they get the results they want is just a bad joke. And to claim they tweak it until it 'appears legit' when the predictions are - in some cases - so far from common wisdom just shows you haven't thought your case through.
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http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php

Perhaps I worded my argument a bit strongly, and perhaps it was even because they have KC rated 26th in defense and 30th in offense. I can only say that it brought attention to the folly of their method. I should take back the part about them making it look the way they wanted, that is an insult.

However, the projection is ridiculous, and the method only less so.

I did read the whole article, and its no less absurd. More over, I read their entire Method, which reads like a junior-level statistical survey with a fantasy backing. Look, I'm not sure if you work for them, know somebody who writes for them, or based your picks this year off of what they say, but there are so many things that determines wins and losses other than what can possibly be included in this calculation that it just makes the whole thing, while appearing quite deep, rather shallow indeed.

For example:
1. How do they take rookies into account?
2. What about penalties?
3. What about bad calls?
4. What about the effect of home games? Prime-time games?
5. 2-minute offenses?
6. Poor time management?


Obviously it's easy to point out the flaws in the method, but it's just as easy to ignore them and hold up the "average gain on 2nd down by a specific player against a specific defense" and combine it with the "average defensive play against this player" and stir it up and hope for the best. It looks like it started out as a way to predict fantasy results (and I applaud them for that), but then they tried applying it to the entire league.

They actually use the play-by-play as the main source of their data. Seriously. It's an interesting method, but seriously, seriously flawed.


Edit:
And were you going to address my original assertion which you rejected (about the inclusion of Coaching experience), but is clearly quoted above?
 
Karakand said:
Where did you see / hear this?
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Don't worry kara, we all know Culpepper is going to start AND he gives your team the best chance to win. I don't know what all these bitches' problems are.
 
iapetus:
you'd like this-

Bill Simmons said:
15. Travis Henry
A little scary because of the fumbling problem and Mike Shanahan's abject hatred for fantasy owners ... and that's before we get to last weekend's remarkable "nine kids by nine different women" revelation. Remember when we were all blown away when it was reported that Shawn Kemp had seven kids by six different women? If Kemp was like Roger Bannister breaking the four-minute mile, then Henry just brought the sports fertility record down to the 3:35 range. You have to admire the way he's spreading his seed around. According to the guys at Football Outsiders, Henry has the highest kids-per-partners rate (100.0) since they started keeping track of the stat in 1993.
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:lol :lol
 
PantherLotus said:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php

Perhaps I worded my argument a bit strongly, and perhaps it was even because they have KC rated 26th in defense and 30th in offense. I can only say that it brought attention to the folly of their method. I should take back the part about them making it look the way they wanted, that is an insult.

However, the projection is ridiculous, and the method only less so.

I did read the whole article, and its no less absurd. More over, I read their entire Method, which reads like a junior-level statistical survey with a fantasy backing. Look, I'm not sure if you work for them, know somebody who writes for them, or based your picks this year off of what they say, but there are so many things that determines wins and losses other than what can possibly be included in this calculation that it just makes the whole thing, while appearing quite deep, rather shallow indeed.

For example:
1. How do they take rookies into account?
2. What about penalties?
3. What about bad calls?
4. What about the effect of home games? Prime-time games?
5. 2-minute offenses?
6. Poor time management?


Obviously it's easy to point out the flaws in the method, but it's just as easy to ignore them and hold up the "average gain on 2nd down by a specific player against a specific defense" and combine it with the "average defensive play against this player" and stir it up and hope for the best. It looks like it started out as a way to predict fantasy results (and I applaud them for that), but then they tried applying it to the entire league.

They actually use the play-by-play as the main source of their data. Seriously. It's an interesting method, but seriously, seriously flawed.


Edit:
And were you going to address my original assertion which you rejected (about the inclusion of Coaching experience), but is clearly quoted above?
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You guys should really give them a chance. Their work isn't something you can just pick up and easily understand. They are to football what sabermetrics are to baseball - and both are equally misunderstood, misinterpreted, and largely discredited by most fans who rely principally on their subjective observations, conventional wisdom, and media pundits for their information.

I felt the same way about them at first. Seeing something like a DVOA stat is pretty scary at first, and then when they throw in statistics terminology like standard deviation and variance it gets even scarier. I really didn't start to appreciate their work, or the work of the sabermetric community until I took a couple statistics classes required for my major. But, you don't need to have taken such courses to understand and appreciate their work. The book they have outlines things really well and it isn't riddled with that much statistical jargon to make in unappealing.

For example:
1. How do they take rookies into account? - see below
2. What about penalties? - They record all of them, but you can't predict penalties in the future
3. What about bad calls? - Bad calls by referees tend to even out, again you can't predict them
4. What about the effect of home games? Prime-time games? - Home-field advantage is debatable
5. 2-minute offenses? - You got me there
6. Poor time management? - YOu got me there
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They have a system for projecting rookie quarterbacks that has worked amazingly well in the past. I'm not entirely sure what they do for other positions though, but overall the impact of rookies is typically (with exceptions of course) marginal on a team's performance. But, just cause you can't accurately measure or predict everything doesn't mean that their is no point in measuring what you can - which is actually quite a bit. Quote form their book "The motto of Football Outsiders has always been that we cannot develop perfect analysis is not a reason to give up on better analysis. When their are holes in our numbers, we fill them in with knowledge we gather with our eyes, just like everyone else who writes about the NFL." What they fill in with their eyes is actually thoroughly researched. They have a huge group of volunteers who record NFL games (multiple people are assigned to a single game) and chart almost everything that goes on.

You guys can say that both iapetus and i work for them or know them personally, but we don't. Hell, I WISH I worked for them. I love their work. They aren't always going to be right, but they are better than everyone else on the whole and that means something.

By the way, I have a pretty good understanding of the work they do with DVOA and DPAR if you'd like me to explain it in a easier manner.
 
dresden:
thanks for taking the time to respond thoughtfully. if i've misrepresented myself, I am aware of concepts like standard deviation and variation.

I can see how they could project individual performances; that much seems evident. What I don't understand is how they can project team performances? What is the basis of their 2007 team projections?

And while it sounds like pure homerism, I have to point out that this is the only place I've seen the KC Defense ranked less than 16th. Is this the standard "aging secondary" bullshit that Peter King wrote about but forgot to mention our two starting rookie safeties? I'm not sure how they came up with a 26th for KC D.


Edit:
The quote you posted is basically an apology for making judgment calls (with their 'eyes') when necessary. I just want somebody to admit somewhere that this isn't entirely based on a formula and is in fact based upon more than a few observationally-based opinions.
 
sorryaboutdresden said:
They are to football what sabermetrics are to baseball - and both are equally misunderstood, misinterpreted, and largely discredited by most fans who rely principally on their subjective observations, conventional wisdom, and media pundits for their information.
Click to expand...
I discredit sabremetrics because people have turned it into a fucking religion and refused to acknowledge anything that can't be quantified down to the tiniest quark. As I've said in the MLB threads, they are useful but they aren't the only thing you should use to evaluate players. Like it or not baseball is still a random ass sport.

Which leads me to...

As for their NFL counterpart, like sabremetrics I think they're worthwhile but to a lesser degree given the increased amount of flux in the sport. Thankfully there's no cult around them (yet) though so I don't get hot and bothered about them too much.
 
Karakand said:
I discredit sabremetrics because people have turned it into a fucking religion and refused to acknowledge anything that can't be quantified down to the tiniest quark. As I've said in the MLB threads, they are useful but they aren't the only thing you should use to evaluate players. Like it or not baseball is still a random ass sport.

Which leads me to...

As for their NFL counterpart, like sabremetrics I think they're worthwhile but to a lesser degree given the increased amount of flux in the sport. Thankfully there's no cult around them (yet) though so I don't get hot and bothered about them too much.
Click to expand...

Looks like the cult has already started.

The point I'd like to make is that the talent levels in the NFL are basically equal when it comes down to it, and using a formula to make predictions is cute, but not very productive. Every team is one injury away from disaster, and one free-agent (or rookie) explosion from a SuperBowl. Formulas can't measure that.
 
PantherLotus said:
dresden:
thanks for taking the time to respond thoughtfully. if i've misrepresented myself, I am aware of concepts like standard deviation and variation.

I can see how they could project individual performances; that much seems evident. What I don't understand is how they can project team performances? What is the basis of their 2007 team projections?

And while it sounds like pure homerism, I have to point out that this is the only place I've seen the KC Defense ranked less than 16th. Is this the standard "aging secondary" bullshit that Peter King wrote about but forgot to mention our two starting rookie safeties? I'm not sure how they came up with a 26th for KC D.


Edit:
The quote you posted is basically an apology for making judgment calls (with their 'eyes') when necessary. I just want somebody to admit somewhere that this isn't entirely based on a formula and is in fact based upon more than a few observationally-based opinions.
Click to expand...

I wish I could tell you more about their simulation program. But, I really have no idea. However, as a programmer and as someone who knows a decent amount of statistics I could certainly see how something like this could be done. Don't fret much about your team's 26th ranking, a ton of things can happen that could either improve or even decrease it. I'm sure that their was an instance in their simulation where the Cheifs won the super bowl and had a top ranked defense, it just doesn't occur that often. In their book, they give you guys a 2% chance of being a super bowl contender.

That 2% chance is what we as sports fans live for.

Karakand said:
I discredit sabremetrics because people have turned it into a fucking religion and refused to acknowledge anything that can't be quantified down to the tiniest quark. As I've said in the MLB threads, they are useful but they aren't the only thing you should use to evaluate players. Like it or not baseball is still a random ass sport.

Which leads me to...

As for their NFL counterpart, like sabremetrics I think they're worthwhile but to a lesser degree given the increased amount of flux in the sport. Thankfully there's no cult around them (yet) though so I don't get hot and bothered about them too much.
Click to expand...

You have a good argument about sabermetrics as a religion with Bill James as Jesus. I don't agree with everything Baseball Prospectus says, and frankly I don't think anyone should agree with what someone says absolutely. But, I feel like they have a lot of compelling things to say, and they deserve to be heard.

You'd probably like Football Outsiders and their book though. They have such a unique approach to Football and they will be the first to tell you that they aren't always right. Next time your in Barnes and Noble pick it up and take a look at it.
 
PantherLotus said:
Looks like the cult has already started.

The point I'd like to make is that the talent levels in the NFL are basically equal when it comes down to it, and using a formula to make predictions is cute, but not very productive. Every team is one injury away from disaster, and one free-agent (or rookie) explosion from a SuperBowl. Formulas can't measure that.
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A formula definitely works and there are several betting rings that make billions off their own computers:P

Read The Smart Money sometime, it's a fascinating read.
 
Well, tomorrow we start the party. I'm getting off at 3 to pretend I'm going to the NFL season launch party to watch Kelly Clarkson and Faith Hill, but am going home to chill until kickoff.

I don't know what to make of the Colts this year. Offensively I've got zero worries as long as Manning is on the field and defensively they can't be any worse, right? I'll probably be watching new LT Ugoh on every play anyways, scrutinizing his every move. I was actually most worried about defensive backs this season, with having all new starters, but from all accounts they are doing even better...we'll see. Hopefully Sanders can stay healthy enough to play in at least half the games.

I'm not really worried about any teams in the Central, the Jags always come up short and seem as capable of winning ten games as losing ten. Then again they may rush the ball 400 times again and win both games.

I'll say the Colts start the year 10-0, get bored and take the rest of the meaningless season off then dominate in the playoffs again for a repeat. Manning hurts his arm but we find out he secretly practices throwing left handed at night so he comes back out and doesn't miss a step, becoming the first QB in NFL history to throw for a TD with both arms in the same game. I think we'll also start to see the pouting Marvin Harrison a lot more this year with Wayne, Clark, and Gonzales all primed for good years.

captlaab10502162326bigwwy4.jpg
 
Flizzzipper said:
Well, tomorrow we start the party. I'm getting off at 3 to pretend I'm going to the NFL season launch party to watch Kelly Clarkson and Faith Hill, but am going home to chill until kickoff.

I don't know what to make of the Colts this year. Offensively I've got zero worries as long as Manning is on the field and defensively they can't be any worse, right? I'll probably be watching new LT Ugoh on every play anyways, scrutinizing his every move. I was actually most worried about defensive backs this season, with having all new starters, but from all accounts they are doing even better...we'll see. Hopefully Sanders can stay healthy enough to play in at least half the games.

I'm not really worried about any teams in the Central, the Jags always come up short and seem as capable of winning ten games as losing ten. Then again they may rush the ball 400 times again and win both games.

I'll say the Colts start the year 10-0, get bored and take the rest of the meaningless season off then dominate in the playoffs again for a repeat. Manning hurts his arm but we find out he secretly practices throwing left handed at night so he comes back out and doesn't miss a step, becoming the first QB in NFL history to throw for a TD with both arms in the same game. I think we'll also start to see the pouting Marvin Harrison a lot more this year with Wayne, Clark, and Gonzales all primed for good years.
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It is very hard to repeat. Lets see if the Colts can even get back to the playoffs let alone repeat.
 
PantherLotus said:
Looks like the cult has already started.

The point I'd like to make is that the talent levels in the NFL are basically equal when it comes down to it, and using a formula to make predictions is cute, but not very productive. Every team is one injury away from disaster, and one free-agent (or rookie) explosion from a SuperBowl. Formulas can't measure that.
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Eh, I don't want you guys to think of the two of us as a cult. Especially not like the religion of sabermetrics. Haha, and besides two people is hardly a cult.
 
bionic77 said:
It is very hard to repeat. Lets see if the Colts can even get back to the playoffs let alone repeat.
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I'm confident in saying the only way the Colts could possibly miss the playoffs would be if Manning gets injured and misses more than 8 games.
 
ill admit, i havent read up on the dvoa forumula, im too lazy to read all that....

BUT....i dont care what formula they use, the rams do not have a bottom 5 offense, thats just ludicrous. that invalidates everything they say to me.
 
soulja224466 said:
ill admit, i havent read up on the dvoa forumula, im too lazy to read all that....

BUT....i dont care what formula they use, the rams do not have a bottom 5 offense, thats just ludicrous. that invalidates everything they say to me.
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Wait, some formula decided the Rams have a bottom five offense? Seriously? Top 5 RB and WR, top 10 QB, am I missing something here? They could have the Bucs offensive line and still excel with those skill players.
 
soulja224466 said:
ill admit, i havent read up on the dvoa forumula, im too lazy to read all that....

BUT....i dont care what formula they use, the rams do not have a bottom 5 offense, thats just ludicrous. that invalidates everything they say to me.
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Er....are you reading the chart right? It says 24th ranked offense.
 
apparenty steve smith is angry that tye hill shut him down last year.

dont be mad smitty, tye hill is a future probowl CB. you're not dealing with jason sehorn anymore buddy :D
 
Steve Smith took a break, thats all. I'm sure he'll get the Fred Smoot treatment this time around.
 
dont be mad smitty, tye hill is a future probowl CB. you're not dealing with jason sehorn anymore buddy
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lol gtfo of here dude. fucking antonio bryant tore his sorry ass up last year. i bet djax is lickin' his chops for this year against tye mound
 
Saints at Colts

That's all for now...I'll pick the rest of mine later when I'm not half asleep.

And er, go Redskins and stuff.
 
Flizzzipper said:
I'm confident in saying the only way the Colts could possibly miss the playoffs would be if Manning gets injured and misses more than 8 games.
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I don't doubt Manning be his usual self, it is the rest of the team I see having a letdown. And it seems that while all the breaks go your way when winning the Superbowl they seem to all go against you the next year.

Edit: With that said I am picking the Colts to beat the Saints in week 1. :lol
 
PantherLotus said:
I can see how they could project individual performances; that much seems evident. What I don't understand is how they can project team performances? What is the basis of their 2007 team projections?
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Actually it's harder to project individual performances than team performances in this sort of system. They're the first to admit that their ranking of players is impacted by the players around them (how well a QB or RB performs is strongly influenced by the qualities of their offensive line, for example).

For a lot of your 'how do they predict these' questions the answer is basically that they don't need to - either because they're things that aren't open to prediction (such as bad calls) or because they already feed into the stats that they're working from in the first place (such as time management).

PantherLotus said:
And while it sounds like pure homerism, I have to point out that this is the only place I've seen the KC Defense ranked less than 16th. Is this the standard "aging secondary" bullshit that Peter King wrote about but forgot to mention our two starting rookie safeties? I'm not sure how they came up with a 26th for KC D.
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They take a different approach to prediction than most people - therefore it's to be expected that their predictions are different in some key places. Check out the FAQ in which they look at the correlation coefficients between various stats. In particular look at the second table, which shows that DVOA is a much better predictor of next year's performance than wins or points scored, which tend to form the starting point for a lot of more subjective predictions.

PantherLotus said:
The quote you posted is basically an apology for making judgment calls (with their 'eyes') when necessary. I just want somebody to admit somewhere that this isn't entirely based on a formula and is in fact based upon more than a few observationally-based opinions.
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Nobody's saying it isn't. But those observational opinions are at a lower level than the ones that most people use to make their predictions, and aren't - as you tried to depict them - a way for the people behind the system to force out the results that they want. And where there are stats that can be used instead of those judgements, the stats are used in preference.

sorryaboutdresden said:
Eh, I don't want you guys to think of the two of us as a cult. Especially not like the religion of sabermetrics. Haha, and besides two people is hardly a cult.
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Exactly.

Join us...
 
Shinobi said:
Saints at Colts

That's all for now...I'll pick the rest of mine later when I'm not half asleep.

And er, go Redskins and stuff.
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What do you mean, "er, go Redskins and stuff"!? Say it loud and proud son!
 
soulja224466 said:
apparenty steve smith is angry that tye hill shut him down last year.

dont be mad smitty, tye hill is a future probowl CB. you're not dealing with jason sehorn anymore buddy :D
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4 rec, 90 yds, 1 TD

If Smith considers that being "shut down," I can't wait to see what he does when he feels like he tears up Hill.

The Rams were unable to stop a five-game slide this week in Carolina. The Panthers were successful in getting good matchups outside, especially wide receiver Steve Smith against Rams rookie cornerback Tye Hill. Smith was able to use his outstanding speed, skill and quickness to get open against the less-talented rookie. The Panthers controlled the clock by taking advantage of the Rams' inability to stop the run.
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soulja224466 said:
ill admit, i havent read up on the dvoa forumula, im too lazy to read all that....

BUT....i dont care what formula they use, the rams do not have a bottom 5 offense, thats just ludicrous. that invalidates everything they say to me.
Click to expand...

They'll be the first to tell you that they consistently underrated the Rams over the past couple of years. They haven't figured out why yet. They make a huge deal out of third down performance, typically how it almost always regresses to the mean. Last year you guys had a DVOA of 23.0% on third down which was the fifth best in the league. According to them third down performances that are significantly greater than performance on other downs is a sure sign of regression. They've been right about that in the past, but is it a lock - hardly.

Take this for what you will though, but they are estimating you guys to have a lot more injuries this coming year. Again, its just one of there things. You guys were one of the most injury free teams last year. Is that due to excellent conditioning or just luck. Who knows. But they feel that the Rams injury totals is something that is likely to increase. I think (not sure on this) that they feel your offensive line may be in for some trouble. Lastly, I know they like your defense. Well, minus the defensive backfield
 
sorryaboutdresden said:
Take this for what you will though, but they are estimating you guys to have a lot more injuries this coming year. Again, its just one of there things. You guys were one of the most injury free teams last year. Is that due to excellent conditioning or just luck. Who knows.
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Its not like they tackled too many people last year...
 
My wife just gave me my early birthday present. Front row tickets to the Panthers game here in St. Louis at the 20 yard line. Thats my favorite place to sit of all time :D
 
WOO! I am a happy iapetus today.

Just got an email through saying that I was selected in the third and final lottery to have a chance at buying tickets for the London game (Giants vs Dolphins). Now all I have to do is get my order in first thing on Wednesday...
 
iapetus said:
WOO! I am a happy iapetus today.

Just got an email through saying that I was selected in the third and final lottery to have a chance at buying tickets for the London game (Giants vs Dolphins). Now all I have to do is get my order in first thing on Wednesday...
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Nice man! Good luck with that. London would be amazing to go to.
 
iapetus said:
WOO! I am a happy iapetus today.

Just got an email through saying that I was selected in the third and final lottery to have a chance at buying tickets for the London game (Giants vs Dolphins). Now all I have to do is get my order in first thing on Wednesday...
Click to expand...
NFL really screwed up by not sending the Steelers over there. If the British saw Big Ben in the flesh I guarantee that within a week every kid in England would threw their old world football and cricket bat into the garbage can and replace it with an American football and Big Ben jersey.
 
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