Official NFL Week 1 Thread: It's the start of something....Special.

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Pats defense is going to suck again this year. Loss of Seymour is huge. And Harrison being a cheater is no surprise to anyone I am sure.

Jets to slay the dragon in week 1 guaranteed.
 
bionic77 said:
Pats defense is going to suck again this year. Loss of Seymour is huge. And Harrison being a cheater is no surprise to anyone I am sure.

Jets to slay the dragon in week 1 guaranteed.

Most ironic part, Harrison was selected by the Pats for the Ed Block Courage award.

The honor is bestowed annually upon the player who, according to his teammates, best exemplifies the principles of courage and sportsmanship while also serving as a source of inspiration.

:lol :lol
 
Tamanon said:
Most ironic part, Harrison was selected by the Pats for the Ed Block Courage award.

The honor is bestowed annually upon the player who, according to his teammates, best exemplifies the principles of courage and sportsmanship while also serving as a source of inspiration.

:lol :lol
The sad thing is on that team Harrison might actually have most sportsmanship and courage (mainly because the team is made up of a bunch of satan worshipping cheaters) on the Pats.

God I hate the Patriots and Tom Brady. Peyton's humiliation of Tom Tom and Bill was the sports highlight of last year and made me a Manning fan (for now).
 
BTW, ESPN is reporting Culpepper will start for the Raidas, whereas Adam Schefter is reporting Josh McCown will start.:D

Anyone know the over/under on the Colts/Saints game? If it's 60 or less, I'll probably bet the over:lol
 
well if Peter King makes a statement that Culpepper will start, then you'll know Adam Schefter is right.
 
Tamanon said:
BTW, ESPN is reporting Culpepper will start for the Raidas, whereas Adam Schefter is reporting Josh McCown will start.:D
This is the Raiders we are talking about. They are probably both right!

Two qb future!
 
Why settle for 2? You can line one up at the position and the other 2 in the backfield as a fullback and a tailback.

(It's a shame Uncle Al doesn't read GAF. I'd probably get the offensive coordinator gig with thinking like that...)
 
Karakand said:
Why settle for 2? You can line one up at the position and the other 2 in the backfield as a fullback and a tailback.

(It's a shame Uncle Al doesn't read GAF. I'd probably get the offensive coordinator gig with thinking like that...)
You would never get a job as an offensive coordinator of the Raiders with your antiquated thinking.

There is no more need for a backfield anymore. Backs went out of fashion along with horse drawn carriages at the turn of the century. The team of the future is going to employ only quarterbacks, receivers, safteies, and cornerbacks. If only you could see the future the way the Raiders and Lions can see it (John Gruden is also one of the visionaries). Everyone always says the quarterback is the most important position in football, so it only makes sense to have as many on the field at the same time as possible.

Uncle Al is a football visionary and using two qbs at once is just the first step to a game that will be played with jetpacks and laserbeams.
 
Got my last fantasy draft of the season coming up in two hours - the GAF EA fantasy league. Hope everyone's planning on being there for the live draft. ;)
 
iapetus said:
Got my last fantasy draft of the season coming up in two hours - the GAF EA fantasy league. Hope everyone's planning on being there for the live draft. ;)

I sadly won't be around for the whole draft. I should be able to get my first three picks in live, but then I have to drive home from work. Doh...

I'm taking LT with my first pick if you're wondering.
 
TO clarified his Time Magazine statement. Apparently the reporter told TO that he can't say Romo. Then the reporter conveniently left out that piece of information.

wtf does Time Magazine have against the Cowboys?
 
bionic77 said:
You would never get a job as an offensive coordinator of the Raiders with your antiquated thinking.

There is no more need for a backfield anymore. Backs went out of fashion along with horse drawn carriages at the turn of the century. The team of the future is going to employ only quarterbacks, receivers, safteies, and cornerbacks. If only you could see the future the way the Raiders and Lions can see it (John Gruden is also one of the visionaries). Everyone always says the quarterback is the most important position in football, so it only makes sense to have as many on the field at the same time as possible.

Uncle Al is a football visionary and using two qbs at once is just the first step to a game that will be played with jetpacks and laserbeams.
I would argue that the Silver and Black have not abandoned running the ball, counselor. Their "big" free agent signing was Dominic Rhodes and they spent a draft pick gambling on a high-risk, high-return running back (Michael Bush). They even used a LOL pick on a fullback from a LOL football program. (Though those last 2 pieces of evidence could perhaps indicate the team has decided to go full-on Redskin copycat when it comes to the draft rather than continuing to support a ground attack on offense.)

If anything they've given up on the idea of an offensive line. I mean, who wants to waste a spot on the field for positions that can't contribute to scoring points? Not I said the spider to the fly.
 
bionic77 said:
Pats defense is going to suck again this year. Loss of Seymour is huge. And Harrison being a cheater is no surprise to anyone I am sure.

Jets to slay the dragon in week 1 guaranteed.
Seymour is good, but you're forgetting they still have Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren on the DL.

2006 for Seymour and Warren:

Seymour: 41 total tackles, 4 sacks, INT
Warren: 84 total tackles, 7.5 sacks, FF
 
Striker said:
Seymour is good, but you're forgetting they still have Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren on the DL.

2006 for Seymour and Warren:

Seymour: 41 total tackles, 4 sacks, INT
Warren: 84 total tackles, 7.5 sacks, FF

Seymour is constantly double blocked. Basically he gets double teamed on every play freeing up Warren to post impressive numbers. Don't get me wrong, Warren is great, but a lot of it is due to the impact Seymour has on the field.
 
Striker said:
Seymour is good, but you're forgetting they still have Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren on the DL.

2006 for Seymour and Warren:

Seymour: 41 total tackles, 4 sacks, INT
Warren: 84 total tackles, 7.5 sacks, FF
Doesn't Seymour command double teams though?

Not sure if Warren is good enough to command double teams. Though Seymour's number don't look too impressive from last year. Strange, the bastard always ran through our offensive line like it wasn't there.
 
sorryaboutdresden said:
You'll find a nice consolation prize barring something unexpected at the third pick. At least if you go by what KUBIAK says.

Josh Scobee will still be available? :D (Seriously, though, I'm hand-modifying KUBIAK to avoid some players I've picked in my other fantasy leagues that I wasn't too happy with or don't want to rely on too much... Mister Betts, we're looking at you here...)
 
iapetus said:
Josh Scobee will still be available? :D (Seriously, though, I'm hand-modifying KUBIAK to avoid some players I've picked in my other fantasy leagues that I wasn't too happy with or don't want to rely on too much... Mister Betts, we're looking at you here...)

Hahaha Scobee is one of my kickers. The other is the monster GOSTKOWSKI whom I have in the United GAF League. But, I think you know who I'm talking about. KUBIAK is sky high on Mr. Betts, but its really too hard to predict what's going on in the heads of Gibb's and his legion of coordinators and assistants to make a good prediction of Bett's carries.

Well, like I said in the Fantasy Football thread itself, KUBIAK isn't a draft board so hand modifying it is absolutely recommended.
 
sorryaboutdresden said:
Hahaha Scobee is one of my kickers. The other is the monster GOSTKOWSKI whom I have in the United GAF League. But, I think you know who I'm talking about. KUBIAK is sky high on Mr. Betts, but its really too hard to predict what's going on in the heads of Gibb's and his legion of coordinators and assistants to make a good prediction of Bett's carries.

They talk about Betts and why he's so highly ranked in their latest fantasy mailbag. It's partly on the assumption that Portis will be injured later in the season, which isn't too unreasonable, but makes Betts a bad guy to pick up as a starter.
 
Karakand said:
Can we allow one more on the MJD Love Train guys? Feels kind of cramped in here already...

I've been the conductor of that train.... well maybe not on here, but my friends constantly make fun of me for my man-crush on him. Besides, you can make room for one more. MJD's got enough love for all of us.
 
Unless you went to UCLA it's unpossible to be the conductor of the train. You are however right about there being enough love to go around. Welcome aboard!
 
Well, given that we're having a Football Outsiders love-in anyway, here are the DVOA projections for 2007 (adjusted for recent changes such as the mysterious vanishment of Byron Leftwich...)

Code:
[b]RANK	TEAM	DVOA	RANK	OFF.	DEF.	ST.[/b]
1	NE	31.90%	1	1	9	7
2	PHI	26.00%	2	3	12	18
3	JAC	24.70%	3	6	1	19
4	BAL	12.00%	4	11	7	22
5	WAS	11.20%	5	15	4	3
6	TB	10.50%	6	14	5	17
7	CAR	10.50%	7	17	3	5
8	PIT	10.20%	8	19	2	26
9	SD	8.80%	9	4	29	6
10	NYJ	7.80%	10	7	19	12
11	IND	7.00%	11	2	32	23
12	GB	5.70%	12	12	8	32
13	CHI	3.80%	13	20	6	2
14	DEN	0.20%	14	9	24	21
15	ATL	0.20%	15	16	11	28
16	SEA	0.10%	16	13	22	16
17	SF	-1.50%	17	22	10	14
18	CIN	-3.50%	18	8	27	20
19	NYG	-3.50%	19	10	25	29
20	NO	-4.50%	20	5	31	15
21	BUF	-4.70%	21	23	21	1
22	TEN	-6.60%	22	18	23	9
23	MIN	-9.00%	23	25	16	25
24	DET	-9.50%	24	28	13	11
25	CLE	-9.70%	25	27	17	10
26	DAL	-9.80%	26	26	18	24
27	OAK	-12.20%	27	29	15	8
28	MIA	-14.30%	28	32	14	4
29	HOU	-17.30%	29	21	28	27
30	ARI	-18.60%	30	31	20	13
31	STL	-24.30%	31	24	30	31
32	KC	-25.60%	32	30	26	30

Full article, including explanation of some of the odder looking results, and which ones they believe (Jacksonville, Green Bay, Chicago for real, New Orleans not...)
 
Karakand said:
Unless you went to UCLA it's unpossible to be the conductor of the train. You are however right about there being enough love to go around. Welcome aboard!

True. I liked him a lot coming out of college. I only saw one game of his, but thats where the crush started. I had him on my winning team last year and he's on both my squads this year. So yeah I'm pretty gay for him.

I love the Eagles projected DVOA for this year and Indy's is hilarious. Number 2 offense but 32 defense. I didn't read that article yet, but their book Pro Football Prospectus does their prediction justice. Man the season is so close, I can't wait.
 
RUSSELL, RAIDERS CLOSE?

USA Today reports that the Oakland Raiders and quarterback JaMarcus Russell, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft, may be close to a deal.

Russell's uncle and "adviser," Ray Russell told the national daily that the Raiders "realize they have dropped the ball, and they started negotiating in good faith."

He added: "They've done more talking in the last week and a half than the previous three months. It's almost done. It's just a damn shame it's taken this long."

But we're hearing indications that the two sides might not be as close as advertised. And it makes us wonder whether the sudden appearance of progress has anything to do with the fact that recruiter Melvin Bratton has now officially joined Eddie DeBartolo's agency. Since Bratton was instrumental in delivering Russell to the firm of Lock, Metz & Malinovic, Russell could choose to follow Bratton if Russell decides that LMM simply can't get the deal done.

Bratton wisely is saying that Russell won't leave, since the folks at LMM would most definitely cry foul if Russell were to bolt for Bratton and DeBartolo in the near future. Last year, Zeke Sandhu allegedly tried (unsuccessfully) to take 49ers tight end Vernon Davis to Joby Branion of Athletes First, and this resulted in disciplinary actions being pursued against Sandhu and Branion.

Said Bratton, according to Liz Mullen of Sports Business Journal: "I want the Raiders to know and you to put on record: [Russell] is not wavering. He is in a battle right now with the Raiders and he is not going to up and change [agents]."


....


Is Russell's uncle a moron? Saying that the negotiations are getting close because the Raiders realized they were wrong? He's an awful negotiator!
 
Football Outsiders is sometimes strange.

Their stat lines last season had the Giants OL in the top five in terms of both rushing and pass protection.

Yet when they related with a FOX Sports OL rankings, they put them in the 20's.

whatdog.gif

sorryaboutdresden said:
Seymour is constantly double blocked. Basically he gets double teamed on every play freeing up Warren to post impressive numbers. Don't get me wrong, Warren is great, but a lot of it is due to the impact Seymour has on the field.
There will always be double teams, but the guy had DOUBLE the amount of tackles and nearly twice the sacks.

That speaks volumes.
 
Striker said:
Football Outsiders is sometimes strange.

Their stat lines last season had the Giants OL in the top five in terms of both rushing and pass protection.

Yet when they related with a FOX Sports OL rankings, they put them in the 20's.

whatdog.gif


There will always be double teams, but the guy had DOUBLE the amount of tackles and nearly twice the sacks.

That speaks volumes.

I'm not saying that Warren isn't a great player just that you can't fully judge Seymour by his conventional statistics.

The main reason they point to a decline for the Giants Oline is a lack of consistency in terms of their starters. According to them, consistency is a crucial aspect of an offensive lines play and you guys lost Petitgout and Bob Whitfield and Diehl is moving to tackle isn't he? I'd say thats a pretty big shake up with the line's personnel.
 
i am trying to understand how the rams offense ranks 24th? and the special teams wont be that low i guarantee it. we have a good kicker, punter and dante hall. the coverage is iffy but we aren't 31st best.
 
sorryaboutdresden said:
True. I liked him a lot coming out of college. I only saw one game of his, but thats where the crush started. I had him on my winning team last year and he's on both my squads this year. So yeah I'm pretty gay for him.
My first year at UCLA was his last season there. So many fond memories.

DON'T WATCH CYAN DON'T WATCH

http://youtube.com/watch?v=NEL4eO3Nnvs

Tamanon said:
Is Russell's uncle a moron? Saying that the negotiations are getting close because the Raiders realized they were wrong? He's an awful negotiator!
Major moron. If anything the Raiders have the advantage in negotiations now that LOLpepper doesn't look like he's special needs and McCown looking alright.
 
sorryaboutdresden said:
I'm not saying that Warren isn't a great player just that you can't fully judge Seymour by his conventional statistics.

The main reason they point to a decline for the Giants Oline is a lack of consistency in terms of their starters. According to them, consistency is a crucial aspect of an offensive lines play and you guys lost Petitgout and Bob Whitfield and Diehl is moving to tackle isn't he? I'd say thats a pretty big shake up with the line's personnel.

Whitfield was a spot starter so forget him.

The guys that played on the line from left to right were Luke, Diehl, O'Hara, Snee, McKenzie. And on top of that, we would play Rich Seubert at TE when we needed more meat for blocking for Tiki.

Lose Luke.

OLine is now, from left to right, Diehl, Seubert, O'Hara, Snee, McKenzie.

Seubert was already in there anyway, for us. That is why we Giants fans feel slighted when people rip our OLine. It's essentially the same line as last year.
 
The DVOA thing has me confused, at least when it comes to KC's defensive ranking. I mean, I know we were ranked around 15th in the league last season, and it's widely agreed that we could have a top 10 D this year.

But that site has us at 26th?

And it has the team with LJ offensively ranked at 30th?

I won't dismiss the site entirely but I'm guessing that there's a lot of other things that play into it that are based more on opinion (like "Coaching Experience") than actual number-crunching brain activity.
 
PantherLotus said:
The DVOA thing has me confused, at least when it comes to KC's defensive ranking. I mean, I know we were ranked around 15th in the league last season, and it's widely agreed that we could have a top 10 D this year.

But that site has us at 26th?

And it has the team with LJ offensively ranked at 30th?

I won't dismiss the site entirely but I'm guessing that there's a lot of other things that play into it that are based more on opinion (like "Coaching Experience") than actual number-crunching brain activity.

Football Outsiders said:
San Diego: This is an interesting one because I’ve made some changes between the book and now. The main reason for the projected San Diego decline is not the new coaching staff, but rather the very specific problems that the defense had last year. The Chargers had the worst red-zone defense in the NFL and ranked 30th in third-down run defense. Third-down run defense is a negative indicator, separate from the overall "third-down rebound" trend. However, I realized over the last couple of months that it might be worthwhile to project San Diego using only the weeks when Shawne Merriman was in the lineup. The defense was significantly worse without him, and he should be there for the entire 2007 season, barring injury. This change improved San Diego’s overall projection by a small amount — not enough to suggest that they might match last year’s 14-2 record, but enough to move the Chargers ahead of the Broncos as the most likely winner of the AFC West.

Why didn’t removing Weeks 9-12 have a larger effect? While the overall San Diego defense was much better with Merriman in the lineup, both of these negative indicators were actually even more negative once we removed the weeks without Merriman.

And yet at the beginning of the article/website/method of calculation this person describes this being completely based on stats with no manual manipulation. Clearly, it's a lie. I certainly won't say the projections are completely wrong, but if they're right, it won't be because of this calculation; it will be because they were manipulated to fit expectations.

Basically, bullshit.
 
PantherLotus said:
And yet at the beginning of the article/website/method of calculation this person describes this being completely based on stats with no manual manipulation. Clearly, it's a lie. I certainly won't say the projections are completely wrong, but if they're right, it won't be because of this calculation; it will be because they were manipulated to fit expectations.

Basically, bullshit.

You do realize that manual manipulation means changing figures because you think they should be higher or lower, not changing the factors added into a formula.
 
6h6b80p.jpg
 
PantherLotus said:
And it has the team with LJ offensively ranked at 30th?

I won't dismiss the site entirely but I'm guessing that there's a lot of other things that play into it that are based more on opinion (like "Coaching Experience") than actual number-crunching brain activity.

No. Coaching experience and other subjective things don't come into it at all. Their projections have LJ taking a pretty massive fall in production, based on the fact that most backs who rush as many times as he did last season have a big drop off (or injury) the following year.
 
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