Didn't rutte get burned the last time PVV joined a coaliton with them? Rutte really doesn't need PVV this time, but I do agree that the VVD may change their mind about a coalition with the PVV.
The VVD isn't that trustworthy with campaign promises given their past, just saying.
And I disagree that the VVD doesn't need the PVV. The VVD has more in common with the PVV than most, probably any, of the center and left-wing parties. If people make the VVD too big and give them too much sway over the coalition process, the left wing parties
will bow out of negotiations and the VVD will have either no choice but to talk to the PVV (which will give them the perfect excuse) or give up on trying to form a coalition altogether, which they will not want to do.
Strategic voting for the VVD only ends in terrible options for all concerned, and we're finally getting rid of the last mess of strategic voting, so let's try and avoid that this time.D