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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses

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M

mo60

Member
Why does Sarkozy have veto power? I get that he played a role in the LR's formation but he seriously shouldn't be making decisions for his party in this election since he was a candidate for them in their primary.
 
M

Magni

Member
mo60 said:
Why does Sarkozy have veto power? I get that he played a role in the LR's formation but he seriously shouldn't be making decisions for his party in this election since he was a candidate for them in their primary.
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Because nobody wants to say no to him. (Nobody in LR anyways).

This is such a shit show. Can you imagine a dual Fillon-Lepen indictment and Hamon vs Macron in the second round?
I still can't
 
O

oti

Banned
Funky Papa said:
KrgvJTB.gif
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Like a damn fiddle!
 
A

Angel_DvA

Member
Guys, that doesn't make sense to have Juppé replacing Fillon, if people would have wanted him, they would have elected him, let it go.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
Angel_DvA said:
Guys, that doesn't make sense to have Juppé replacing Fillon, if people would have wanted him, they would have elected him, let it go.
Click to expand...

Well technically he was still the second best choice of the voters in the primaries, so he'd be the closest thing to a legitimate candidate if Fillon dropped out. But as much as I'm supporting Juppé (and would have voted for him if he had been candidate), it would be awkward to replace someone suspected of fake jobs with someone who has been convicted for fake jobs in the past.
Anyway all of that shows the disarray of LR, which is currently headless. The primaries have removed all credibility from the old leaders (Sarko, Juppé), didn't give any to the aspiring new ones (Le Maire, NKM,...), and the only one who got a win from it just shat the bed.
 
M

mo60

Member
Magni said:
Because nobody wants to say no to him. (Nobody in LR anyways).

This is such a shit show. Can you imagine a dual Fillon-Lepen indictment and Hamon vs Macron in the second round?
I still can't
Click to expand...

That would be insane even though it won't happen. Like Marcon would probably win by 50-60 points if that happened.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
I don't see a way Le Pen wouldn't reach the second round anyway (even if I would be delighted if that were possible). She's the only stable thing in this pre-election phase, hasn't really moved from her 25+% position, whatever happens to other candidates and her own judiciary issues.
 
T

timetokill

Banned
I'm taking French classes and our professor likes to dip into the election every now and then, so I've been trying to keep up. I read an article in the NYT about France worrying about losing its "Frenchness" and the decline of small provincial towns. Honestly it sounds VERY similar to what happened here in the US. Which is pretty scary.
 
D

Diamond

Member
timetokill said:
I'm taking French classes and our professor likes to dip into the election every now and then, so I've been trying to keep up. I read an article in the NYT about France worrying about losing its "Frenchness" and the decline of small provincial towns. Honestly it sounds VERY similar to what happened here in the US. Which is pretty scary.
Click to expand...

Yeah, the current political climate, the debates on TV and radio, what you hear people say... There are a lot of things in common with the US situation right now. When following the US election there were a lot of times when I said to myself "hey that's exactly the same debates we're having here".
I think one major difference is that contrary to Trump, Le Pen is very much a part of the system, even if she claims she's not, and the FN is not nearly as strong as Reps are in the US (and still has a tainted image in a lot of voters view). That's why I think there won't be the same final result.
 
M

Mac_Lane

Member
Plus, you do need a majority of the popular vote in France to get elected. No electoral college bullshit of any kind.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
So Macron revealed the "guidelines" of his program. Nothing really mind-blowing, rather balanced and centrist as expected. My first impression is generally positive.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
It's just an anecdotal accusation anyway (publishing violent photos online). It won't hurt her much, and may even help her playing the victim as usual.
Still a good thing that she gets what she deserves.
 
C

Coffinhal

Member
I recommend you to watch this 50-min video about the chances of Marine Le Pen to win the election. The panel has half of the best researchers on the subject.

I don't have the time to list all the interesting points they make but there are several!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLVCeZxLL_s

(other Mediapart panels/videos are great too)
 
Alx

Alx

Member
I must be slow, I only realized right now that the initials of "En Marche" are the same as "Emmanuel Macron". Quite a big ego he has. :D
 
K

Koren

Member
Alx said:
I must be slow, I only realized right now that the initials of "En Marche" are the same as "Emmanuel Macron". Quite a big ego he has. :D
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The day it was created, I remember people on news channel discussing it... Most were convinced that it's totally deliberate.

DiipuSurotu said:
Except they didn't know about Fillon's fake jobs back then.
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I'm not even sure that would change now... His popular support isn't really that eroded. Yes, 75% of people want him to go, but that means that 20-25% wants him to stay, which are probably exactly the 20+% that still say they'll vote for him.

Granted, the difference between 20% and 25% in the first turn can be the difference between 2nd and 3rd position, which means 1st turn elimination, but should you redo a match between Juppé and Fillon now, even if it would be closer, I'm still not convinced Juppé would win it.
 
K

Koren

Member
hodgy100 said:
That's not a thing already? woah an MP employing a family member is clearly an abuse of their position.
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That's not, and it's not easy to implement because it's not the parliament that employs assistants but MP themselves (in EU parliament, it's different, that's the reason it's a bit easier to fight against this).

Though it probably won't solve everything, you'll still have "I employ your son and you employ my wife" kind of deals...

At the end of the day, it can be seen as an abuse of position, yes, but in some case, it's worse than employing a member of your family, it's paying a member of your family that *doesn't* actually do anything of substance.
 
P

Palette Swap

Member
hodgy100 said:
That's not a thing already? woah an MP employing a family member is clearly an abuse of their position.
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IIRC, I'd have to find the exact figure, but it's somewhere around 50% of them doing that (mainly their spouse).
You can never overestimate our parliamentaries and their ability to whine about witch hunts and demagoguery every time someone tries to instill some transparency and prevent conflicts of interest.
 
F

Fistwell

Member
Palette Swap said:
IIRC, I'd have to find the exact figure, but it's somewhere around 50% of them doing that (mainly their spouse).
You can never overestimate our parliamentaries and their ability to whine about witch hunts and demagoguery every time someone tries to instill some transparency and prevent conflicts of interest.
Click to expand...
Le monde has the number around 1 in 6.
 
T

timetokill

Banned
Diamond said:
Yeah, the current political climate, the debates on TV and radio, what you hear people say... There are a lot of things in common with the US situation right now. When following the US election there were a lot of times when I said to myself "hey that's exactly the same debates we're having here".
I think one major difference is that contrary to Trump, Le Pen is very much a part of the system, even if she claims she's not, and the FN is not nearly as strong as Reps are in the US (and still has a tainted image in a lot of voters view). That's why I think there won't be the same final result.
Click to expand...

I sure hope you're right.
It really seems like globalization has done a number on people in western civilization and instead of blaming those responsible, they're blaming immigrants. Just sad as hell.
 
R

Roronoa95

Member
There is no better pleasure than seeing the LR boat going down like the Titanic.
At least this election will lead to an implosion of the old parties and reshape the political landscape.
 
P

Palette Swap

Member
There's a theory floating around that some of these people who left are collecting signatures for Juppé to run.

Somehow, I have a feeling this would make everything worse.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
Well some mayors officialy gave their signature to Juppé already. I saw a discussion on French TV (channel 5 IIRC) where commentators were saying that the idea was making the rounds, but that it would only happen if Fillon officially steps down (if only for the candidate to have access to the funds of the campaign, but also for internal agreement of course).
Fillon has planned a support demonstration on Sunday, I guess he'll use that as a test to see if he can still claim to have support, or should just give up.
 
D

DiipuSurotu

Banned
According to Challenges.fr Sarkozy is purposely making sure the LR party crashes and burns so that he can come back as a messiah after the election. He would then become the Prime Minister in a "cohabitation" government with President Macron.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
Lol, Sarkozy is like a tick that won't let go whatever you do. You can spray it, rip it from your body and throw it out of the window, and somehow you'll find it the next day attached to your butt and sucking your blood.
 
S

Sinsem

Member
DiipuSurotu said:
According to Challenges.fr Sarkozy is purposely making sure the LR party crashes and burns so that he can come back as a messiah after the election. He would then become the Prime Minister in a "cohabitation" government with President Macron.
Click to expand...

Someone needs to explain the concept of retirement to this man.
 
K

Koren

Member
Alx said:
Fillon has planned a support demonstration on Sunday, I guess he'll use that as a test to see if he can still claim to have support, or should just give up.
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At this time, I'm not sure he will give up for any reason, and I hope there's really few people there just to see them explain it's the bad weather, like the PS recently ;)

Roronoa95 said:
There is no better pleasure than seeing the LR boat going down like the Titanic.
Click to expand...
Fillon is sinking faster, but LR supporters' orchestra definitively keeps playing. The analogy is sound.

Roronoa95 said:
At least this election will lead to an implosion of the old parties and reshape the political landscape.
Click to expand...
Not sure it's for the better... I would have liked to see honest people, not populists, and people that don't want to defend their ideas, but just use market analysis to get to power... :/
 
M

mo60

Member
DiipuSurotu said:
According to Challenges.fr Sarkozy is purposely making sure the LR party crashes and burns so that he can come back as a messiah after the election. He would then become the Prime Minister in a "cohabitation" government with President Macron.
Click to expand...

Macron will definitely say no to him if he tried that.
 
T

Tribes of Trusty

Member
I have some friends who are way smarter than me for a lot of things.

Yet they stubbornly keep saying they'd support Fillon even with everything that happened.



Politics is like religion, people can't admit they were wrong or they changed their opinion.
 
A

Ac30

Member
Alx said:
So Macron revealed the "guidelines" of his program. Nothing really mind-blowing, rather balanced and centrist as expected. My first impression is generally positive.
Click to expand...

Is there a good rundown somewhere? I'd be interested in seeing his platform. I don't mind French links
 
M

mo60

Member
Koren said:
Honestly, the current sytem can enter a deadlock if both sides can't settle on someone... I really, really doubt it could come to this, but...
Click to expand...

He will choose someone for PM if he becomes president but it won't be Sarkozy.Choosing sarkozy for french PM wouldn't fit the message he is trying to sell on nepotism and corruption.
 
A

Ac30

Member
mo60 said:
He will choose someone for PM if he becomes president but it won't be Sarkozy.Choosing sarkozy for french PM wouldn't fit the message he is trying to sell on nepotism and corruption.
Click to expand...

Could he pick Bayrou? Might look too much like a backroom deal though.
 
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