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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
- Thread starter Holden
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Bonen no Max'd
Banned
As a casual foreign observer mostly just interested in hoping Le Pen loses, it's amusing to have watched Fillon go from "probably the next president" to going down in flames.
whyamihere
Banned
DiipuSurotu
Banned
I certainly hope so.
Him campaign manager resigning is huge, as huge as losing the support from the center-right party.
This is a complete meltdown. I don't see how he could now drop the race unless Juppé, Sarkozy and other important people publicly ask him to go fuck himself. In that case the election could very well be postponed imo because there's no way Juppé or someone else can build a one-month campaign, get the patronages and get legal and financial issues solved (that was already a big issue at the beginning of February, now it's impossible to fix this)
Marine Le Pen is summoned by judges in order to be indicted for fake jobs too. I believe this could end badly for her too, she's the next in line after Fillon, the wave could lower her % by 1 to 3 points in the first round and kill any chance that she goes up in the second round.
But who knows ! This is insane.
IN-SA-NE
(Every people grayed out has resigned from Fillon's campaign staff)
I wouldn't trust this. Juppé is no candidate today so he hasn't campaigned yet, and polling what people say they'll vote for its irrelevant outside of campaigns.
Remember that this is a poll that was bought by a media in order to get attention and that polls (although I love to read them and comment them) have many bias.
It could happen but we've seen that when Bayrou joined Macron there was a bump for Macron that wasn't shown in any poll : with or without Bayrou in the race, Macron was roughly in the same area.
This is a complete meltdown. I don't see how he could now drop the race unless Juppé, Sarkozy and other important people publicly ask him to go fuck himself. In that case the election could very well be postponed imo because there's no way Juppé or someone else can build a one-month campaign, get the patronages and get legal and financial issues solved (that was already a big issue at the beginning of February, now it's impossible to fix this)
Marine Le Pen is summoned by judges in order to be indicted for fake jobs too. I believe this could end badly for her too, she's the next in line after Fillon, the wave could lower her % by 1 to 3 points in the first round and kill any chance that she goes up in the second round.
But who knows ! This is insane.
IN-SA-NE
(Every people grayed out has resigned from Fillon's campaign staff)
I wouldn't trust this. Juppé is no candidate today so he hasn't campaigned yet, and polling what people say they'll vote for its irrelevant outside of campaigns.
Remember that this is a poll that was bought by a media in order to get attention and that polls (although I love to read them and comment them) have many bias.
It could happen but we've seen that when Bayrou joined Macron there was a bump for Macron that wasn't shown in any poll : with or without Bayrou in the race, Macron was roughly in the same area.
It will be crazy if the election is postponed because of all the chaos in Fillon's campaign. Whoever replaces fillon will be tainted by this whole thing. I can potentially see macron polling above 30% of the vote in the first round soon because I also see le pen losing support soon because of the potentially criminal things that she may have done in the past that are still plauging her.
Le Pen is probably the next person that has to deal with all the things fillon has had to deal with in the last month or so.
Le Pen is probably the next person that has to deal with all the things fillon has had to deal with in the last month or so.
Get out of here with this bullshit. No, it wasn't meant to happen. Yes, she won't have absolute power if she wins and the legislative elections are important. But her winning is an important symbol, and a bad one at that. We don't need to signal European weakness. We don't need to embolden racists and nazis. Look at how bad the US has become in the months since Trump won. It's not because of what he's done policy-wise, it's because people feel they're allowed to be openly racist now.
I feel like nobody else remembers, but everyone thought DSK would be our next president in 2011. Except this time, shit is going down much closer to Election day.
freeofgreed
Member
Yes I'm curious about this as well. If one candidate drops out the entire thing is postponed?
Posh populism
I'm french and I never heard of this. It's not like there is a terrorist attack on our soil or any kind of apocalyptic event coming. I don't know if it's incredible sense of entitlement of Fillon camp, but come on.
As an American, my main source of information regarding European politics is The Economist and the occasional Guardian/Telegraph article. Where does Macron stand ideologically? He was apparently an economic minister doe the socialists (center left in France) but now running essentially under his own party?
Palette Swap
Member
We were discussing going to the République one. And yeah, the weather is already awful.
Alx
Member
The rule leaves a lot to interpretation, basically it's meant to postpone the election if a candidate dies during the official campaign, but you could y to apply it to other circumstances.
At this point it's no obligation though, the constitutional committee is the one to decide if it's worth postponing. Probably not.
Unrelated, but I was reading an analysis of the campaign funding. Apparently the money from the primaries is already on Fillon's account (6 M), and technically he would be free to keep it even if he drops out. It would be the heist of the decade if he just ran away with the money.
Centrist in French politics. So the left says he's on the right and the right says he's on the left. Probably wouldn't be far from Clinton ideologically.
Hamster Plugin
Member
That will just increase her chances. They have the Russian propaganda machine going full time about "EU elites trying to take the common man down" and FAKE NEWS and other shit.
She has started to drop a bit in the polls recently because of her legal troubles.
It looks like Penelope Fillon gave her first interview since the scandal broke recently.
https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/838201459720216576
link to article
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-fillion-wife-idUSKBN16B0R9?il=0
https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/838201459720216576
link to article
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-fillion-wife-idUSKBN16B0R9?il=0
Mass_Pincup
Banned
Did he really just said that his militants are "La France des châteaux et des cathédrales"?
Really?
At least he knows is fanbase...
Edit "La France qui respecte les institutions électorales"?
You can't make this shit up, you just shitted on juges for days now.
Really?
At least he knows is fanbase...
Edit "La France qui respecte les institutions électorales"?
You can't make this shit up, you just shitted on juges for days now.
harriet the spy
Member
I don't know who I support but I actually want Juppé to run and win because holy hell what a turnabout / twist that would be. Some people on predictit would make BANK
Edit : but if it's Le Pen / Macron I'm worried about russia's fake news machine.
Edit edit : Fillon's speech makes me want to vomit
Edit : but if it's Le Pen / Macron I'm worried about russia's fake news machine.
Edit edit : Fillon's speech makes me want to vomit
Palette Swap
Member
Far right dog whistling and doubling down. Go fuck yourself, travail, famille, patrie.
DiipuSurotu
Banned
Code:
[IMG]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C6KTPN3WUAEA-vT.jpg[/IMG]
Far from it... We still need any reasonable figures (the 200.000 one in Trocadero seems insanely inflated) but it seems there's "hundreds" of people at Republique. It's most probably a 5-digit figure in Trocadero.
If I'm reading this correctly, if Fillon gives up tonight or in the next few days getting the 500 signatures should be easy enough for his substitute
(I'm having little doubt that MLP will get hers)
Juppé press conference 10.30am tomorrow: https://twitter.com/alainjuppe/status/838471112031887361
MLP has like two week to get over 400 signatures. Wow.
Macron is getting to the second round as long as the les republicians don't get someone great to replace Fillon.
A lot of mélenchonistes won't vote PS though. That's why a Hamon/JLM ticket was doomed from the beginning.
If someone great existed, that person would be there already.
whyamihere
Banned
Yeesh, Fillon. Well, I guess we're getting the Macron/Le Pen match. This election has been crazy.
I wouldn't be so sure of that yet.
htttpwwwyahoocom
Member
Did anyone see the 60 Minutes thing with Marine Le Pen? I don't think there's a link anywhere.
It was crazy to me. They were portraying FN as a complete fringe party before and never mentioned her father made through to the second round too like she probably will. Like I get that it's more popular now but it's not that far off from what it was before from what I can tell. They also tried to make her seem like a victim of her father's bad reputation.
But then she spoke and she's just fucking crazy. Like I get that here in the US we have Trump but he definitely hides his Islam hatred and even his Russia love better than she does.
Paraphrasing:
AC: Do any European countries have anything to fear from Russia?
MLP: No of course not.
AC: Ukraine.
All in all crazy that she gets a soapbox in the US when she's not likely to win. They didn't even mention the two round system.
It was crazy to me. They were portraying FN as a complete fringe party before and never mentioned her father made through to the second round too like she probably will. Like I get that it's more popular now but it's not that far off from what it was before from what I can tell. They also tried to make her seem like a victim of her father's bad reputation.
But then she spoke and she's just fucking crazy. Like I get that here in the US we have Trump but he definitely hides his Islam hatred and even his Russia love better than she does.
Paraphrasing:
AC: Do any European countries have anything to fear from Russia?
MLP: No of course not.
AC: Ukraine.
All in all crazy that she gets a soapbox in the US when she's not likely to win. They didn't even mention the two round system.
I watched it and marine le pen is way more open them trump in terms of her islam hatred and Russia. She/s a really scary presidential candidate even though she unlikely to win the french presidential election.
She'll get them.
That signatures stat is useless, it's not a race. We shouldn't be talking about it before March 17.
Herb Alpert
Banned
So juppe won't go.
Now let's witness the collective suicide of the French right. Aka "la droite la plus bête du monde"
So hamon doesn't have the full support from his party. Fillon doesn't either.
Ps and LR are a wasteland. Legislatives will be something...
Now let's witness the collective suicide of the French right. Aka "la droite la plus bête du monde"
So hamon doesn't have the full support from his party. Fillon doesn't either.
Ps and LR are a wasteland. Legislatives will be something...
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