I'm not sure about that.
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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
- Thread starter Holden
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I'm not sure about that.
Palette Swap
Member
There's this:
http://www.lemonde.fr/election-pres...s-du-programme-de-macron_5088187_4854003.html
It's what anyone should have expected, a liberal, pro-EU platform.
Alx
Member
Well there's the official flyer on his site, but it's in French : https://storage.googleapis.com/en-marche-fr/COMMUNICATION/Programme-Emmanuel-Macron.pdf
I haven't found any detailed article in English.
Several of his propositions aren't really new, there's some rehash of older ideas (even some that didn't work when they were tried), others that don't seem very important, but as I said nothing really ground-breaking.
The main elements to me would be :
- reduction of civil servants (-120000) but increase in education (specifically for poorer areas and primary school) and police (specifically counter-terrorism)
- simplification of unemployment and retirement rights (same rights for everybody, whatever the job)
- better morals for elected representatives (no multiple titles, no nepotism,...)
- focus on gender equality
- more Europe : have a European finance minister, European defense, less fiscal shenanigans among EU countries, no soft Brexit
It's soft neoliberalism. Nothing really new, most of his ideas are or were in think thanks from center left and center right...Where he picked his "experts". He also takes a lot of ideas from centrist across Europe, most recently the Spanish center right party.
Too bad he didn't propose anything big on democracy, besides things that were necessary on ethics in politics.
I could have voted for him on the second round if he was proposing substantial changes in our democratic system. It reminds us that only real left candidates are in favor of a true democracy, not a soft reformed parliamentary democracy.
He truly is the last hope of neoliberals to save their ass and get even more of their policies set up.
He's going to have to face big problems if he's elected : first have a true and solid majority in the National Assembly, and then be a legitimate President that won because he was the best and not the worst of all (that's why he needs to be ahead of Le Pen, if possible by a large margin in the first round ; then win 65/35 in the secound round and not 57/43).
Too bad he didn't propose anything big on democracy, besides things that were necessary on ethics in politics.
I could have voted for him on the second round if he was proposing substantial changes in our democratic system. It reminds us that only real left candidates are in favor of a true democracy, not a soft reformed parliamentary democracy.
He truly is the last hope of neoliberals to save their ass and get even more of their policies set up.
He's going to have to face big problems if he's elected : first have a true and solid majority in the National Assembly, and then be a legitimate President that won because he was the best and not the worst of all (that's why he needs to be ahead of Le Pen, if possible by a large margin in the first round ; then win 65/35 in the secound round and not 57/43).
Cabaratier
Neo Member
Does this mean that you will not vote for him, if he were to face Le Pen in the second round? Is preventing a 'neoliberal' from winning more important than preventing Le Pen from winning? (no)
I was expecting this question haha.
I believe I'll vote but won't pick any of them. I'm still undecided, even though I've known him and his ideas for five years now (when he was just an adviser of Hollande) and I've followed him and his supporters a few times in February for reports.
Don't worry, he'll have plenty of people to vote for him. The fear of Le Pen doesn't scare me. If it happens, it was meant to happen and then I'll campaign and vote against her in the législatives. You need more than soft neoliberalism to break the ethno-nationalist worldwild trend. If this doesn't happen today, it'll happen in 2022 because his platform is an account manager platform, and it makes sense because that's his ideology. I understand why he isn't that radical on democracy for example, his supporters wouldn't approve it.
Sure but I guess the idea is that Sarkozy would come back before the legislative election, win with LR and then Macron would be forced to pick the LR leader as prime minister. That's how it works.
Honestly I often say that FN would have a hard time winning the legislative election if Le Pen wins, but Macron will probably have the same kind of problem, because his party is very young. Alliances could happen, but it's a real possibility that we'll have a cohabitation, whoever wins the presidential.
Alx
Member
There are worse things than cohabitation anyway, we've been there before and sometimes it actually worked well enough.
Anyway with a free particle like Macron and both PS and LR in disarray, plus a potential return of partial "proportionnelle", it will be time to have a new conception of the législatives.
Anyway with a free particle like Macron and both PS and LR in disarray, plus a potential return of partial "proportionnelle", it will be time to have a new conception of the législatives.
LR is going to be a mess after the first round, no matter what happens in the next couple of weeks. No way they can win anything and have a true campaign. Sarkozy is dead, only Juppé or someone younger could try to lead the way, but they are going to suffer and my guess is that LR is going to die and someone will try to build a new party to say that this era has ended.
About a coahabitation, he said he wanted to build alliances, but he'll want to have a majority of MEPs from En Marche! so he doesn't always make compromises.
My guess is that he won't have a majority and will have to make alliances with former PS, UDI and LR members that are going to be elected (so it's going to be mess), but not one of these groups will have enough members to outnumber En Marche! and have a majority. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a majority though, don't forget that the législatives are always in favour of the party that won thanks to the 1 month 1/2 gap between the two élections and the the fact that the fait majoritaire was strenghtened by this.
His PM could very well be Gérard Collomb (mayor of Lyon, Senator etc.) since he's experienced, has supported that agenda for years and has been one of his first true supporters. The PM needs to come from the majority and represents it, its Platform and identity.
That doesn't mean anything really. It's kind of the cliché that you hear everyday or on BFMTV, or from right-wing/free-marketeers who find an easy argument here.
Also about polls, on the same page I posted that :
There's a good chunk of Mélenchon-Hamon 1st round voters that'd vote for Fillon in the 2nd, and even more from Macron. Pollsters are already getting Le Pen higher than what comes out of the poll first because of bias from "shy" voters as you say, although these bias are less and less present.
There's Nothing that shows that Le Pen could win over Fillon in the 2nd round.
My concern was more that people who might say that they will vote against a candidate in the second round are less likely to actually bother when it means voting for someone that they really don't want to. It's difficult to accurately poll beyond binary choices.
Anyway, I think it's all moot as I don't see Fillon making the second round, so now I see Macron winning easily. If Juppé took his place it might have been interesting, I think he would have a better chance than Fillon.
Surely France must be the country with the biggest corruption scandals out of the G7? That's the impression that I always get at least. I guess maybe Italy might disagree.
whyamihere
Banned
Shit's getting wild.
Isn't it a bit late to do that? Les republicians have to find a replacement candidate in like the next two weeks or so. If Juppe joins the race he maybe to tainted to get past the first round.
Lol. Some political analyst thinks a goat can beat marine le pen in the second round if it was marine le pen against a goat.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/02/a-go...idential-election-political-analyst-says.html
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/02/a-go...idential-election-political-analyst-says.html
Funniest thing is that that no mainstream politician can appeal to French working class voters. None can beat Le Pen .... what's going on?
These voters are not as important for most french politicians to attract on the presidential level since they don't make up a huge portion of the french electorate. Le Pen is not going to win the second round of the french presidential election by getting way more working class people to vote for her then her opponent.
Mass_Pincup
Banned
When even Nadine Morano tells you to quit you know you've been too far.
It has to be a matter of time now, at least I hope so. Maybe we will be able to hear platform from all of the candidate....
It has to be a matter of time now, at least I hope so. Maybe we will be able to hear platform from all of the candidate....
Anyone that replaces him would probably be to tainted to actually get past the first round.He should have dropped out a few weeks ago.
This new Odoxa poll says otherwise, though:
https://twitter.com/OdoxaSondages/status/837608270118465537
Oh my god at this poll. It looks like Juppe hurts Le pen's position in the polls a lot while Macron doesn't get hurt much by Juppe's entrance into the race.I still don't think replacing Fillon will save the LR.If the second round is Macron vs Juppe in the end I think Macron will win by 4 to 10 percent.
Just to clarify, the tweet is badly worded. The spokesman is quitting, not Fillon.
Just in case anyone reading is as confused as I was
Alx
Member
Makes sense. But the Sunday rally can still give an illusion of support, some believe it will be the "manif pour tous part deux", since those are the last to stand behind Fillon (IE the small but very vocal group that opposed gay marriage and managed to organize large rallies of protestation)
DiipuSurotu
Banned
Man this election has more twists than a pretzel factory
who needs house of cards when you have Fillon's campaign
Haha yes that would be so dope.
Palette Swap
Member
She was defending him only two days ago with the most AMAZING defense: "he said he'd quit if he was indicted, but at the time we all thought he wouldn't be indicted".
I honestly expect more counter-protesters than protesters.
This rally is a terrible idea on so many levels.
Palette Swap
Member
Seeing all these guys from his inner circle getting out, I realize it's basically over for Fillon. I mean, how do you run a campaign when there's no one to even work on it? What's he going to do? Get Penelope to finally work and replace all these people?
i think the us election last year tops this, but this presidential election campaign is definitely a real crazy one.
it looks like marine le pen has to deal with something to now.
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/837725425690370048
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/837725425690370048
whyamihere
Banned
So if Juppé jumps in... it might be Juppé/Macron.
@Taniel
French pollster just tested Juppé instead of Fillon. Result? The right goes from 19% to 27%& *Le Pen no longer makes runoff,* falls to 3rd!
Hamster Plugin
Member
But it won't make her support go lower, it will go higher because it's the EU elites taking her down!!!
whyamihere
Banned
What.
lol, she doesn't want to show up until the election is over!
lol, she doesn't want to show up until the election is over!
DiipuSurotu
Banned
The ultimate craziness would be Juppé winning the election -- that is, someone who was actually convicted of fake jobs beating two people who are facing indictment for alleged fake jobs.
If it's a Macron/Juppe run off I see Macron winning, if only because he's untainted (for now)
Systolique
Member
After the boat arc that was Sarkozy, here comes now the Golden Age featuring the downfall of the right <3
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
I had a crappy, crappy day, but Le Pen getting trashed out of the race would put a shit eating grin on my face.
whyamihere
Banned
House of cards is falling.
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