I mean you could close your eyes and vote either Macron or JLM to ensure Fillon isn't in round two (and maybe even kick MLP out)
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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
- Thread starter Holden
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I mean you could close your eyes and vote either Macron or JLM to ensure Fillon isn't in round two (and maybe even kick MLP out)
Alx
Member
He wants it to be better but doesn't have the patience to take the slow route (maybe because he's too old to see the end of it), so he's betting the house with only a pair of nines in his hand. No thanks.
Ether_Snake
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Why is it always the conservatives/right wing parties who manage to elect women as president or prime ministers? The left never manages to, not just in France, anywhere in the Western world.
And_Gignac
Member
Chile, Brazil and Argentina did. Iceland too. The West is not only Europe / US.
whyamihere
Banned
Also Israel, Norway, and Australia.
KillerMan91
Member
Finland too (our previous president was woman).
And_Gignac
Member
I totally forgot about queen Gillard. Actually there has been just as many left wing female presidents as right wing's, if I recall correctly.
whyamihere
Banned
I was looking up a list and besides sometime forgetting who uses a presidential system versus who uses a parliamentary one and who is actually head of government, it seems fairly split?
Trickster
Member
We had one in Denmark until 2 years ago
whyamihere
Banned
(Pls don't judge me on the political leanings of these party, I'm going off of their party's descriptions on Wikipedia)
Sirimavo Bandaranaike - Sri Lanka - Center-left
Indira Gandhi - India - Center-left, technically, I suppose
Golda Meir - Israel - Center-left
Elisabeth Domitien - Central African Republic - idk idk
Margaret Thatcher - UK - Center-right
Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo - Portugal - Caretaker government
Eugenia Charles - Dominica - Center-right
Gro Harlem Brundtland - Norway - Center-left
Milka Planinc - Yugoslavia - Communist
Benazir Bhutto - Pakistan - Center-left
Kazimira Prunskienė - Lithuania - Center-left
Khaleda Zia - Bangladesh - ?
Hanna Suchocka - Poland - Center-right
Tansu Çiller - Turkey - Center-right (back when the Prime Minister mattered!)
Kim Campbell - Canada - Center-right
Sylvie Kinigi - Burundi - Caretaker government
Agathe Uwilingiyimana - Rwanada - Hutus
Chandrika Kumaratunga - Sri Lanka - Center-left
Claudette Werleigh - Haiti - ?
Sheikh Hasina - Bangladesh - Center-left
Janet Jagan - Guyana - Left-wing
Jenny Shipley - New Zealand - Center-right
Helen Clark - New Zealand - Center-left
Mame Madior Boye - Senegal - ?
Maria das Neves - São Tomé and Príncipe - Center-left
Anneli Jäätteenmäki - Finland - Center
Beatriz Merino - Peru - Center-right
Luísa Diogo - Mozambique - Center-left
Yulia Tymoshenko - Ukraine - Center-right
Maria do Carmo Silveira - São Tomé and Príncipe - Center-left
Angela Merkel - Germany - Center-right
Portia Simpson-Miller - Jamaica - Center-left
Han Myeong-sook - South Korea - Center/center-left?
Zinaida Greceanîi - Moldova - Left-wing
Michèle Pierre-Louis - Haiti - ?
Sheikh Hasina - Bangladesh - Center-left
Jóhanna Sigurðardóttir - Iceland - Center-left
Jadranka Kosor - Croatia - Center-right
Kamla Persad-Bissessar - Trinidad and Tobago - Center-left
Mari Kiviniemi - Finland - Center
Julia Gillard - Australia - Center-left
Iveta Radičová - Slovakia - Center-right
Rosario Fernández - Peru - ?
Cissé Mariam Kaïdama Sidibé - Mali - ?
Yingluck Shinawatra - Thailand - literally not even sure how to touch this tbh
Helle Thorning-Schmidt - Denmark - Center-left
Alenka Bratuek - Slovenia - Center
Erna Solberg - Norway - Center-right
Aminata Touré - Senegal - ?
Laimdota Straujuma - Latvia - Center-right
Ana Jara - Left-wing
Ewa Kopacz - Poland - Center-right
Saara Kuugongelwa - Nambia - I guess center-left but idk
Beata Szydło - Poland - Right-wing
Aung San Suu Kyi - Myanmar - Center-left
Theresa May - UK - Center-right
Left-wing: 3
Center-left: 21
Center: 3
Center-right: 16
Right-wing: 1 (congrats, Poland!!)
I'm sure I fucked some of this up.
Sirimavo Bandaranaike - Sri Lanka - Center-left
Indira Gandhi - India - Center-left, technically, I suppose
Golda Meir - Israel - Center-left
Elisabeth Domitien - Central African Republic - idk idk
Margaret Thatcher - UK - Center-right
Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo - Portugal - Caretaker government
Eugenia Charles - Dominica - Center-right
Gro Harlem Brundtland - Norway - Center-left
Milka Planinc - Yugoslavia - Communist
Benazir Bhutto - Pakistan - Center-left
Kazimira Prunskienė - Lithuania - Center-left
Khaleda Zia - Bangladesh - ?
Hanna Suchocka - Poland - Center-right
Tansu Çiller - Turkey - Center-right (back when the Prime Minister mattered!)
Kim Campbell - Canada - Center-right
Sylvie Kinigi - Burundi - Caretaker government
Agathe Uwilingiyimana - Rwanada - Hutus
Chandrika Kumaratunga - Sri Lanka - Center-left
Claudette Werleigh - Haiti - ?
Sheikh Hasina - Bangladesh - Center-left
Janet Jagan - Guyana - Left-wing
Jenny Shipley - New Zealand - Center-right
Helen Clark - New Zealand - Center-left
Mame Madior Boye - Senegal - ?
Maria das Neves - São Tomé and Príncipe - Center-left
Anneli Jäätteenmäki - Finland - Center
Beatriz Merino - Peru - Center-right
Luísa Diogo - Mozambique - Center-left
Yulia Tymoshenko - Ukraine - Center-right
Maria do Carmo Silveira - São Tomé and Príncipe - Center-left
Angela Merkel - Germany - Center-right
Portia Simpson-Miller - Jamaica - Center-left
Han Myeong-sook - South Korea - Center/center-left?
Zinaida Greceanîi - Moldova - Left-wing
Michèle Pierre-Louis - Haiti - ?
Sheikh Hasina - Bangladesh - Center-left
Jóhanna Sigurðardóttir - Iceland - Center-left
Jadranka Kosor - Croatia - Center-right
Kamla Persad-Bissessar - Trinidad and Tobago - Center-left
Mari Kiviniemi - Finland - Center
Julia Gillard - Australia - Center-left
Iveta Radičová - Slovakia - Center-right
Rosario Fernández - Peru - ?
Cissé Mariam Kaïdama Sidibé - Mali - ?
Yingluck Shinawatra - Thailand - literally not even sure how to touch this tbh
Helle Thorning-Schmidt - Denmark - Center-left
Alenka Bratuek - Slovenia - Center
Erna Solberg - Norway - Center-right
Aminata Touré - Senegal - ?
Laimdota Straujuma - Latvia - Center-right
Ana Jara - Left-wing
Ewa Kopacz - Poland - Center-right
Saara Kuugongelwa - Nambia - I guess center-left but idk
Beata Szydło - Poland - Right-wing
Aung San Suu Kyi - Myanmar - Center-left
Theresa May - UK - Center-right
Left-wing: 3
Center-left: 21
Center: 3
Center-right: 16
Right-wing: 1 (congrats, Poland!!)
I'm sure I fucked some of this up.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Seems like mostly a First World/Second and Third World split (in the Cold War sense), most of the conservative women seem to come from the liberal Western countries and socialist women come from non-liberal non-western countries. There's obvious exceptions but it does seem to be a trend.
His position is that if you don't put the option to leave on the table in the negotiations then you are starting from a weaker spot and will concede way too much. It's all about the balance of powers in his mind which is right in my opinion. The question is, is France powerful enough to get what it wants and the opinions on that differ.
He doesn't actively want to leave the EU, on the contrary he believes that a more just & equal EU is possible and that France can make it happen, that is what he truly believes in.
France has a massive amount of sway in the EU - but the EU is also built on consensus and that is one of its greatest strengths. What if the other 27-1 members disagree with what he wants? Holding the whole project hostage isn't going to win people and other governments over to your side.
I'm hoping he's just being radical to win votes and tries to change the EU in the way he's meant to, by talking to fellow EU governments to build consensus.
I agree and that is why he wants to negotiate with the other members of the EU, else he would just do it the brexit way. My personal opinion is that he won't be alone in this and that he will certainly have a few allies.
The nuance here is that he thinks that EU countries populations will naturally push for the dislocation of the EU in the very near future if nothing changes. And sure, we can always blame nationalism for this kind of hypothetical failure, but that would be very narrow minded. What is leading nationalism to soar in so many countries are the consequences of the last twenty years of economic policies that have failed a part of the population that is growing more and more angry. Mélenchon sees an urgency in acting before the point of no return is reached whereas Hollande was satisfied with the slow approach that has led to nothing really changing.
Of course, a Mélenchon presidency is still quite unlikely but it's good to see so many people voting for him in the first round. There is a certain enthusiasm for the ideas he is carrying that I haven't seen for the left in a while. In hindisight, the Hollande chapter really feels as though it was motivated in a large part by anti sarkozisme.
chromatic9
Member
Wonder if Macron's "change" line will harm him somewhat, as Hollande used that as well
I vote in two countries, France and the US, and I don't live in either. I spend a lot of time in both and could see myself living in either at some point though.
The issue isn't people voting from abroad. It's people being dumb. People are dumb everywhere, not just abroad.
I'm really curious to see what the results are like here in Japan (and elsewhere around the world). I feel like Macron, and Fillon sadly, will overperform, and MLP will especially underperform, but who knows.
We have a word for that, enfariner, literally "to enflour". We don't have a word for "to egg" though (right?).
You do you, but if that gives you Fillon vs MLP, don't complain.
I'll never cease to be amazed by how great a job Mélenchon has done to convince his voters that "he's not really that anti-EU". You guys sound like Trump voters saying "he's not going to do all that stuff".
I understand, but threatening the remaining members by listing a Plan B to leave isn't a great start either, plus listing a bunch of unilateral actions where he'll disobey EU law. Sounds to me like he's set on getting what he wants, and if not, he's out.
I'm not sure I agree with the idea that the EU will fall apart on its own; the rise of terrorism in Western Europe has definitely contributed to the rise of anti-EU parties as well, and this was exacerbated by the migrant crisis in 2015. The AfD, PVV and the like largely campaigned on anti-immigrant sentiment. This, coupled with the massive unemployment spike post-financial and -Euro crisis (which the EU has barely started recovering from) certainly caused a spike in popularity for far-left/right parties. Many of us can agree the Euro in its present form is unstable - but while I'd be for further integration, Melenchon wants it eliminated. Those are two very different paths to follow.
Also I don't see anything on a referendum for the Euro, is he planning on dumping that sans referendum?
I could reply by "I'll never cease to be amazed by how great a job Mélenchon's opponents have convinced their voters that he's really anti-EU" and link to an irrelevant picture but I will choose not to do that and engage in a real conversation. I have already explained above what his stance is, quoting his exact words and not some hypothetical hidden agenda he has, I would like to know what makes you so convinced that he is anti european then. If your opinion is that he detests the current state of Europe, then that is not a secret for anyone but there is a chasm between that and being against Europe. A fair & equal Europe is the dream of the vast majority of the people on the left.
On the subject of negotiation, I think it's fair to disagree with his strategy but in a world where the main factor in negotiation seems to be the balance of power (balance of power between companies and employees in les "plans sociaux", between strong nations and weaker ones - see Greece vs the EU, Russia vs Ukraine, etc.) and not the long term benefit of the parties involved, I understand what the reasoning behind is and I think it is sound. Of course, a quote of Camus always comes to mind in situations like these: "Good intentions can do as much harm as malevolence if they lack understanding" but I think the understanding is here, and honestly between this and the alternative of a future implosion that I am quite convinced will happen, I think it's worth it to at least give it a try for the good of the EU.
On the subject of terrorism, and the migrant crisis which are two different topics that are related to the instability in the middle east, I think we have to not be shortsighted and always remember the reasons that led to this situation. The main reason being the ill faithed American war on iraq which sadly quite a few of the EU countries backed, but not France thankfully. In parallel, the financial and economic crisis in the different EU states did not materialize from nothing, it is also a direct consequence of the economic system in these countries and there are no guarantees that a new crisis won't hit the western countries again in the next few years since there hasn't been a real change in how western economies are run since. It's still the same recipes, and if that ever happens what do you think the result will be? On both subjects, Mélenchon has been right in the past, he was a staunch opponent of wars and he has always campained for a less capitalist Europe and that is why I feel like he deserves to be trusted. I'm surprised to read you say he doesn't want further integration, on the contrary that is exactly what he wants, not a union where individual economies are competing against each other to the death. On the left, I can point to a few intellectuals, politicians and economists that call for the elimination of this EU to rebuild a completely different one based on cultural & social exchange first, Frédéric Lordon comes to mind for example, but Mélenchon is not exactly one of them. I do agree that he is not afraid to contemplate the elimination of this Europe in favor of a different one while holding on to his ideals of peace.
He is a big believer in referendums. His programme if elected is that whatever plan he negotiates will be voted on by the french people and if the result is not in his favor he will resign.
TiredofWinning
Member
lmao
Alx
Member
Looks like her drop in polls is making Le Pen nervous, she's going all in with new extreme propositions, like an immediate moratorium on legal immigration.
http://www.lemonde.fr/election-pres...ute-l-immigration-legale_5112668_4854003.html
http://www.lemonde.fr/election-pres...ute-l-immigration-legale_5112668_4854003.html
whyamihere
Banned
You can dislike Thatcher all you want, I'm there too!, but she belonged to the predominant center-right party of the UK, thus. I'm not here to parse out the nuance of Tory policy and if it's far-right or simply center-right. To the common person, most would probably describe the Tories as center-right, so here we are.
(Their modern EP membership is further-right, so you could maybe describe May and the modern Tories as far-right, but that's also probably not what a layperson would say)
How is this helping her? Her clipping her party's extreme elements is what got her to where she is now. It's going to lose her the moderates.
This is where we'll have to disagree. I firmly believe that there won't be another if this falls - 60 years went into building the many organs of the EU, and it was forged out of the fires of WW2. You're not going to get countries to give up sovereignty again, especially if he wants further integration, starting again from 0. Europe is peaceful now because we are so interdependent on each other economically, hence why France leaving the Union would be disastrous for everyone. We should be integrating more, not less, with the institutions we have now. Climate Change is going to affect Europe terribly and, more importantly, the ME and Africa - we need a united foreign policy now more than ever. United we stand, divided we fall, as the old saying goes. I just hope if/when the vote comes you'll stay.
The American fuck-ups in the Middle East we can easily agree on though.
He is either anti-EU and knows that his stance with regards to holding the rest of the union hostage will lead to its weakening or destruction, or he is naive. I tend to think he is the former, with a lot of naive supporters.
Making the referendum about himself is stupid. A referendum shouldn't be about a person, that's what an election is for. Look at all the people who voted Leave not because they cared about leaving the EU, but because they were protesting Cameron and his government.
Alx
Member
Hopefully it won't help her, and the fact that it's a double-edged sword would be a sign that she's not so sure of making it to second round any more. But I guess at this point she thinks anything is better than following the current trend.
My main issue with that is that the referendum he suggests is "agree with what I negotiated, or agree to leave EU" (which may not be constitutional). So "If I sink, I'm taking EU with me". "Après moi, le déluge".
I can't believe that dingbat did that - Matteo Renzi did too, it's fucking stupid. Never make referendums about the government itself
This really is the worst fucking election if you don't want to destroy the world order for your instant gratification.
I'm starting to cling to the hope that I might get a chance to vote even for Fillon in the second round against the extremes, that's how fucked up this election is...
I'm starting to cling to the hope that I might get a chance to vote even for Fillon in the second round against the extremes, that's how fucked up this election is...
I would like this to be a conversation and not one side dictating opinions on the other, why do you think he is anti-european?
The referendum would be about the agreement he has come to, which he would obviously campaign for. The elections is about his programme which he would execute as soon as he holds power. If in that case, the agreement is rejected by the people, how can a president hold any legitimacy in the exercice of his power? This is a control mechanism for the people on their representatives. Contrary to you, I wish western democracies had more of these control mechanisms. When Hollande is elected on the promise of fighting the greed of finance but goes and does the exact opposite of what he was elected on, the people have no option but to endure it. Here you have the option to say no.
Or in other words, agree to stay in the EU or agree to leave the EU
With the distinct difference with the UK, to rebound on Magni's comment, that in that case all but Marine Le Pen (and other minor candidates such as Asselineau) would be campaigning actively to remain in the EU.He is arguing that people will make the referendum about his presidency, which is true - the same happened with Cameron and Renzi, because people realize that if he loses the referendum he will resign. It won't be just about the ballot question, but Melenchon himself.
Presidents campaign on many issues, hanging your entire presidency on one is never a good idea.
As for control mechanisms, this is why I support the total abolition of the presidency, and a move to Prop. Representation everywhere.
If it is a choice between Melenchon's negotiated deal, and leaving the EU, there is no option to say no.
That would be the world's shittiest referendum. He'd hold two, one for the deal and one for Frexit. I would sure hope, right?
Let's hold all the referendums! Referendums are great! What could go wrong?
He himself has said it, he wants stronger nations, not a stronger union. If he truly cared about Europe, then he wouldn't be making reckless bets with its future. It's unbecoming of a French president.
Regarding a referendum: for me, a referendum should always be for or against a change to the status quo, and only that. Mélenchon is proposing: changes to the EU and I stay on, or leave the EU and I leave as well. That is a recipe for disaster (we've seen this movie before).
It should be: here are proposed changes; do you want them, or would you rather keep things as they are? And that's it. If he wants to resign after losing a referendum, then he should hold a "should I resign?" referendum.
And that's not even getting into the whole 50%+1 shit (see what just happened in Turkey).
I hate referendums with a passion. We elect representatives with the expectation that they have our best interests at heart, and represent the pillars of our community, whether that is because they are community organizers or lawyers or doctors or economists etc. The average voter (me, you and everyone else included) is simply too easily misled and is incapable of processing the vast amount of news and information that is out there. The job of the elected official is to be educated on the contents and effects of laws and amendments, and act in their constituent's best interests and to communicate their wishes to parliament.
We have too much other shit to do.
Alx
Member
Or in other words, agree to stay in the EU or agree to leave the EU
If the negotiations won't go his way (which they won't), Mélenchon himself will campaign to exit. He said it himself : "l'Europe on la change ou on la quitte".
He also seems to have the same level of delusion the UK and Brexiters in particular have. "There's no way they can refuse our conditions because we're France and there's no EU without us. And if we need to leave, we'll still manage to convince other countries to do great deals with us (the best deals) because we're so great !"
https://youtu.be/4oynwTD2e1o?list=PLuizdsu9Wqzi0uG20p494PFC1ZFGDZgsY
Seriously, "just hope for the best because there's no way we'll lose" is a terrible strategy. Like I said Mélenchon is either delusional or dishonest.
Is it true though? In the case of the UK, while I of course agree with the fact that resentment towards Cameron's policies affected the vote, policies that are intimately tied in the mind of the people to the european project, would a brexit not leading to his resignation have changed the results significantly? I am not convinced that it would be the case. For me when it comes to such important decisions, it's a matter of legitimacy more than anything.
As great of a prospect as a Mélenchon resignation could be for the average Fillon voter for example, I find it hard to believe that they would vote to leave the EU mainly because of that.
Yeah, I'm also a proponent of proportional representation but with a part of sortition in it. I think too much power is concentrated in the hands of the president.
That's the gist of it, in my eyes - for you it is, yes, but for others it may not be, hence the danger. It is entirely possible to not care less about the EU but still vote to ensure Melenchon is evicted. People have different priorities - If someone lived abroad and Melenchon implemented a tax on him/her, or someone earning over 400k, they might do it. People are selfish.
Leave won by 2% - that is a razor thin margin that could easily have been influence by any number of factors, including Cameron hedging his political future on the outcome.
Reading through this thread is like re-reading through the Brexit threads. I think people don't acknowledge how much work went into the creation and development of EU. And how much divergent are sometime the interests of the countries within and that most of the time no country gets all she wants.
Somehow the meaning of compromise and the reason compromises exists are lost on some people.
And saying that Melenchon doesn't want out of EU is a but hilarious. His ideal world is a alter-globalist alliance with BRICS. You can't have both that and EU. It's all right there in his program.
Somehow the meaning of compromise and the reason compromises exists are lost on some people.
And saying that Melenchon doesn't want out of EU is a but hilarious. His ideal world is a alter-globalist alliance with BRICS. You can't have both that and EU. It's all right there in his program.
the uk wasn't as essential to the eu as france is, the eu would crumble without france. They'll have to make concessions.
the brexit vote also was a surprise, but now the EU leadership is probably worried something like that could happen again, especially if Mélenchon is elected in a surprise move.
I also heard that Mélenchon only brushes his teeth once a week. Dégoutant !
Let's never hold referendums! Referendum suck! Nothing will ever go wrong, right?
On negotiations, yes I was talking in the context of him arriving to an agreement. Of course, in the opposite scenario, he would campaign against it logically.
On his plan, that's not how it is structured I believe. The reasons why Jacques Généreux is convinced that the EU would come to an agreement seem sound but of course he could still be wrong. In that case, France could leave the EU, it is very much a possibility but that is not what Mélenchon wants and that is what I reacted to originally.
Alx
Member
Like I said, it's delusional, and putting too much importance in France compared to other countries and EU interests.
It's also worth reminding that a negotiation is "give me something I want and I'll give you something you want". This is "give me something I want or I'll do something that will hurt you".
There are too many things that have no chance to pass, not in a way that would satisfy Mélenchon anyway.
- Harmonization of fiscality : one could hope for some symbolic gestures, but it will be a hard bargain.
- Remove the pact of stability : not happening
- Devaluate the euro : unlikely
- Redefine a EU debt policy : maybe, not an easy bargaining either.
- Reject all free trade agreements : not happening
- Stop free competition and allow for state-sponsored activity : not happening
- make an alliance of all Southern countries against austerity : doubtful
- stop applying laws on detached workers : not happening
Anyway even if you're bluffing, you should be ready to go all the way. Don't put a loaded gun on the table if you're not ready to trigger it, there's no use complaining "oh but I didn't think it would come to that !" afterwards.
Is that also in his program?
We're a representative democracy, not a direct democracy. If you want to vote everyday, then get yourself elected to the National Assembly.
Ridiculous allegations are not in his program no but I thought I'd join in in your fun.
And yet referendums are right there in the French constitution and there have been ten national referendums in the history of the Ve république. I guess you don't need to be elected to the National Assembly after all.
chromatic9
Member
Mélenchon does say he needs major changes to the EU or leave it if he's to carry out his plans.
There is a lot of skepticism in France of the EU but are Le Pen or Mélenchon the right candidates that people would vote in favour of. I'm not sure they are, both seem quite radical, They could sneak a win in the coming election but lose a EU referendum which is then almost a pointless vote.
Thing is I believe the EU would come to some arrangement because it's France.
There is a lot of skepticism in France of the EU but are Le Pen or Mélenchon the right candidates that people would vote in favour of. I'm not sure they are, both seem quite radical, They could sneak a win in the coming election but lose a EU referendum which is then almost a pointless vote.
Thing is I believe the EU would come to some arrangement because it's France.
I swear it's going to be different this time! We're france! We used to have an empire! We're in the UN security council! We have the greatest army in the UE ! We're.... wait a second
Alx
Member
There's absolutely nothing to back that up. There's no guarantee of getting what Mélenchon out of the EU, certainly not within 5 years, and no guarantee either it would or wouldn't be effective against the rise of the FN. Also we certainly don't know what the FN will look like in 5 years. Nor do we know if the current issues (unemployment, migrant crisis, debt, terror attacks) will still be relevant 5 years from now.
Which Le Pen gets elected in this Mélenchon fan fiction? Just so I can flesh it out in my mind a bit more.
chromatic9
Member
Good news is France and Spain's unemployment rates are falling in recent years. You'd have to think the recovery is on. Macron could be credited with it in five years and things carry on as they were.
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