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[Erevador]

I agree. Lot of people are voting for the FN only on the first turn because they hate the political climate etc... They won't vote for the FN on the second turn.

Don't be so sure.

Underground political sentiment in France is much more potent than many realize.

I expect a dramatically more contentious 2nd round than many in this thread (and the media) are predicting. I am not convinced that Fillon's voters will move to Macron, whatever he himself tells them to do.

There are forces at work here that will play out one way or another.

 

[Oreiller]

That doesn't mean they could form a new party together or rebuild from the ashes of the PS. Mélenchon won't compromise on anything, he is a narcissist. Hamon was absolutely incredulous at the pro-Russia comments regarding Ukraine coming from many of the candidates (including JLM) during one of the debates and he is pro-EU.

Eh, I have a cynical view of politics as a whole but it seemed to me more like communication and a way to distinguish himself from the other candidates than anything else. I hope I'm wrong though.

However, I do agree on the fact that Mélenchon is unlikely to compromise since he's currently in a dominant position. The fact that a large part of his supporters are nuts doesn't help, and neither does his shitty reaction from last night.

 

[mo60]

Don't be so sure.

Underground political sentiment in France is much more potent than many realize.

I expect a dramatically more contentious 2nd round than many in this thread (and the media) are predicting. I am not convinced that Fillon's voters will move to Macron, whatever he himself tells them to do.

There are forces at work here that will play out one way or another.

Nah. I think if this election was held before trump came into power you may have been right but post trump I think le pen actually has a shot at doing worse then expected because a lot of french people probably don't want a trump like candidate to come into power in France after watching trump run america for about 100 days. I think she may underperform her second round polls at this point.

 

[EmiPrime]

Eh, I have a cynical view of politics as a whole but it seemed to me more like communication and a way to distinguish himself from the other candidates than anything else. I hope I'm wrong though.

However, I do agree on the fact that Mélenchon is unlikely to compromise since he's currently in a dominant position. The fact that a large part of his supporters are nuts doesn't help, and neither does his shitty reaction from last night.

I am fairly cynical too but I don't get that read from Hamon. Maybe this is me being naive (you probably can't get as far as he has in politics without being a little bit of a bastard) but he seems kind and honest almost to a fault.

Nah. I think if this election was held before trump came into power you may have been right but post trump I think le pen actually has a shot at doing worse then expected because a lot of french people probably don't want a trump like candidate to come into power in France after watching trump run americ for about 100 days. I think she may underperform her second round polls at this point.

I agree. I will be amazed if she gets over 30%. The rate of abstention will be the biggest deciding factor regarding Macron's majority as the FN vote doesn't grow by very much in second rounds. Le Pen has been on the decline week on week also and was made to look like a mug in the TV debates.

 

[mo60]

I am fairly cynical too but I don't get that read from Hamon. Maybe this is me being naive (you probably can't get as far as he has in politics without being a little bit of a bastard) but he seems kind and honest almost to a fault.



I agree. I will be amazed if she gets over 30%. The rate of abstention will be the biggest deciding factor regarding Macron's majority as the FN vote doesn't grow by very much in second rounds. Le Pen has been on the decline week on week also and was made to look like a mug in the TV debates.

I think she will break 30% on May 7th. The question is were in the 30's she will end up. Will she end up getting somewhere in the low 30's like that one poll that almost got her first round result right predicted or more in the mid to high 30's like every other poll is now predicting.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Someone explain to me why their names all sound edible.

 

[Fisico]

Someone explain to me why their names all sound edible.

They don't in french, not sure what you're reading in english either

Macron : Mac Ron, some burger from Mac Donald's? In french you read it Ma-cron however.
Le Pen : I have no idea
Melenchon : Can't see it.
Fillon : Don't know either
Hamon : Ham I guess? The whole name reads more like a power from Jojo's part 2 though.

 

[Holden]

Macaron
Jambon
Reblonchon

¯\_(&#12484_/¯

 

[Alx]

Never thought of Macaron for some reason, I always thought "Maquereau" instead, which isn't very nice. ^_^
Just looked it up and apparently Macron is a typical name from the north (my place), meaning "big chin". Completely useless information of the day.

 

[dark10x]

All I can say is that I hope this goes well in two weeks.

On top of what it would mean for France itself, a Le Pen victory would be devastating for my family and I. I don't even want to imagine it. Could potentially be infinitely worse than a Trump victory.

 

[talisayNon]

They don't in french, not sure what you're reading in english either

Macron : Mac Ron, some burger from Mac Donald's? In french you read it Ma-cron however.
Le Pen : I have no idea
Melenchon : Can't see it.
Fillon : Don't know either
Hamon : Ham I guess? The whole name reads more like a power from Jojo's part 2 though.

Macron: Macaroon
Fillon: Fillet Mignon
Hamon: Jamon

 

[chromatic9]

They don't in french, not sure what you're reading in english either

Macron : Mac Ron, some burger from Mac Donald's? In french you read it Ma-cron however.
Le Pen : I have no idea
Melenchon : Can't see it.
Fillon : Don't know either
Hamon : Ham I guess? The whole name reads more like a power from Jojo's part 2 though.

Macron - Macaron a French food, Macaroni
Melenchon - Melon or some dessert?
Fillon - sounds fishy like fillet, if you google Fillon, you get Filleting Fillon: more stinking fish
Hamon is Ham or Salmon
Le Pen can be where all the animals are housed in Pens.

 

[SamVimes]

Le pen is penne.

 

[Alx]

Now I'm hungry...
(this topic went to a weird turn )

 

[Charamiwa]

I think that's because a lot of people outside of France associate french words with food already

 

[JonnyDBrit]

I think that's because a lot of people outside of France associate french words with food already

Particularly the '-on' sound.

Anywho, hoping for Macron to pull through, from across the Channel.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

"Melenchon" = "My luncheon", surely?

 

[VAD]

At this point, I'm hoping Macron pulls through. Not my first choice but what can you do... I still can't believe so much people vote for the blonde asshole, like haven't they learnt a thing from 2002?
I would also like to point out that Laurent Wauquiez, the president of the region I'm living in, is a bitter sore loser, didn't even call to vote against the FN after his sugar daddy Fillon lost.
Fuck Mélenchon who also didn't called to vote against them. He presented himself as the sworn enemy of the FN and he decided to pout after his defeat. He really let me down. He can retire now, he won't be missed.
For all his faults, Hamon didn't deserve this result...

Now I get it: a lot of people doesn't share his decision, but it may be the reason why you also don't like his political views. I think Les Insoumis (not everyone, for sure) are mature enough to decide for themselves or will follow the group.

I was with him until his speech. I sure hope his followers will be reasonable. You don't change the system by giving it to nazis, this should be a thought shared by everyone in France. So, to sum up what I was thinking, Melenchon is dead to me, the Insoumis aren't (yet?).

 

[dragonfart28]

Is the establishment still coming for your babies?

Here are some stock politicians to save you.

 

[Alx]

Lol at Juppé's comments, "I'm not going to say 'I told you so'..." (but I totally told you so).

 

[morukutsu]

Fuck Mélenchon who also didn't called to vote against them. He presented himself as the sworn enemy of the FN and he decided to pout after his defeat. He really let me down. He can retire now, he won't be missed.

Hey, I didn't read the whole thread so I don't know if anyone already argued against this but let me write my thoughts about that.

I voted for Mélenchon and I'm probably going to vote Macron in two weeks.

The whole point of 2017 Mélenchon's campaign is to create a bottom-up design to empower people. He is just staying consistant and using the same strategy. Now I get it: a lot of people doesn't share his decision, but it may be the reason why you also don't like his political views. I think Les Insoumis (not everyone, for sure) are mature enough to decide for themselves or will follow the group.

If you remember, Mélenchon in 2002: https://twitter.com/brutofficiel/status/856440662153195521

It's unfair to judge him just his last decision, he's still against the FN and we all are.

 

[Sinsem]

.

Yep, it always was "we'll consult our base" if the France Insoumise didn't make it to the second round.
People who joined don't want to be told what to vote, that's exactly what they are fighting against.

So expect abstention, expect some reluctant Macron support, but don't judge. He stayed true to his words, and I would have been pissed of if he called to vote for Macron.

 

[AuthenticM]

Is there a website or an article that goes into detail on Le Pen's platform, on what she wants to do, both economically and socially, in a concise manner?

 

[dosh]

Yep, it always was "we'll consult our base" if the France Insoumise didn't make it to the second round.
People who joined don't want to be told what to vote, that's exactly what they are fighting against.

So expect abstention, expect some reluctant Macron support, but don't judge. He stayed true to his words, and I would have been pissed of if he called to vote for Macron.

I'm not sure that's what people expected to hear from him. As a self-declared enemy of the FN for many years, he simply should have declared that the far right can't be given any chance to succeed. Which is really not the same as siding with Macron. Instead, he chose to pout. I didn't vote for him, but that was a bit disheartening for my friends who did.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Yep, it always was "we'll consult our base" if the France Insoumise didn't make it to the second round.
People who joined don't want to be told what to vote, that's exactly what they are fighting against.

This, at least, I disagree with. The whole point of politicians is to try and convince people of how they ought to use their vote - everything Melenchon has been doing over the past however many months has been saying "these are the ideals you ought to vote for, and I will carry them forward, therefore you should vote for me". If there wasn't some persuasive role in politics, we could get rid of politicians altogether and just use opinion polls to collate preferences; but instead we have political elections where great ideas are contested and debated.

For Melenchon to be decide it is okay to try and convince people to vote for himself but somehow not okay to try and convince people to vote against Le Pen is wrong.

 

[Condom]

This, at least, I disagree with. The whole point of politicians is to try and convince people of how they ought to use their vote - everything Melenchon has been doing over the past however many months has been saying "these are the ideals you ought to vote for, and I will carry them forward". If there wasn't some persuasive role in politics, we could get rid of politicians altogether and just use opinion polls to collate preferences; but instead we have political elections where great ideas are contested and debated.

For Melenchon to be decide it is okay to try and convince people to vote for himself but somehow not okay to try and convince people to vote against Le Pen is wrong.

His slogan was 'Force du Peuple' not 'Force du Luc'

 

[vonStirlitz]

Following on from the word play

Ma con
Melen con
Ham con
Fil con

Le Pen? La seule vrai conne?

(edit: grammar)

 

[KingSnake]

His slogan was 'Force du Peuple' not 'Force du Luc'

You didn't put the stamp on "Peuple" though.

 

[Coriolanus]

Le Pen can be where all the animals are housed in Pens.

.

 

[VAD]

His slogan was 'Force du Peuple' not 'Force du Luc'

He was in the same position in 2002 and called people to repel Le Pen. Did he change his mind because Jean-Marie was replaced by Marine?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

His slogan was 'Force du Peuple' not 'Force du Luc'

Well 'le Peuple' just voted for Macron and Le Pen to contest the second round. If all Melenchon stood for was representing the views of the people, he would have to abandon his views entirely and become either a fascist or a neoliberal, since on the evidence, that is where the people are. But he doesn't, because he holds independent views and values very dearly, and tries to persuade people of those. It is therefore untrue to his values to not, at the very least, argue against Le Pen.

 

[vonStirlitz]

.

Ahhh.

Pasta la vista.

 

[Alx]

He was in the same position in 2002 and called people to repel Le Pen. Did he change his mind because Jean-Marie was replaced by Marine?

Nah he changed his mind because he's bitter he missed his chance.
Or more likely, after months of being critical against Macron and Le Pen, he can't bring himself to say positive things about either of them. He's the stubborn "no compromise" kind.

 

[Coriolanus]

Ahhh.

Pasta la vista.

gods damn you. too early to be stiffling laughs at work.

 

[Irminsul]

I expect a dramatically more contentious 2nd round than many in this thread (and the media) are predicting. I am not convinced that Fillon's voters will move to Macron, whatever he himself tells them to do.

But based on what? Le Pen performed worse or exactly as predicted, according to the polls. In fact, the polls were probably one of the most accurate in a long time. Also, I really doubt old people (who are basically the only ones who voted for Fillon) will flock to Le Pen en masse. I'm not French but I would guess that name really doesn't sit well with older people, as they probably associate it with Jean-Marie.



Also, not picking on you specifically, but this type of thinking has to be one of the worst GAF memes in recent history. It even gets more ridiculous with every new election.

Austria was a close election, but van der Bellen was in the lead. And he won more decisively than predicted.

Okay, so surely Wilders will win in the Netherlands, won't he? Surprise, he didn't by a wider margin than predicted, and I mean, even if he had, that still wouldn't have put him in charge.

Okay, so surely Marine Le Pen will win the first round of the French elections, won't she? Surprise, she didn't win and performed slightly worse than predicted.

And now we're talking about an election where the candidates aren't within 2 percentage points, but over 20? I'm sorry, but what? I really hope that stops after Macron beats Le Pen 67-33 (calling it now!). Or are we then going to talk about a German party hovering around 8% and now facing a leadership crisis somehow seizing power?

I mean, there is no evidence of such things whatsoever, in fact, there's lots of evidence against it. The only point in favour of this "silent right-wing majority" thinking is Trump, and that's mainly to blame on the US' weird election system -- Clinton won the popular vote after all. It's bordering on a conspiracy theory and looks like talking the right into power.

 

[JonnyDBrit]

Following on from the word play

Ma con
Melen con
Ham con
Fil con

Le Pen? La seule vrai conne?

(edit: grammar)

I'd say for Marine to win at this point, she had best hope her last name is actually Lupin.

 

[Kilrogg]

All I can say is that I hope this goes well in two weeks.

On top of what it would mean for France itself, a Le Pen victory would be devastating for my family and I. I don't even want to imagine it. Could potentially be infinitely worse than a Trump victory.

It's so weird watching your (awesome) Digital Foundry videos and then reading your worries about an election I had no idea would affect you that much as an American. Feel free not to answer (or PM me if you want), but out of curiosity, why would it be worse for your family?

All I can tell you is that I'm definitely voting against her in two weeks, and I'm trying my best to convince people who are thinking of abstaining not to do the same mistake people made with Trump v. Clinton.

 

[Sinsem]

I'm not sure that's what people expected to hear from him. As a self-declared enemy of the FN for many years, he simply should have declared that the far right can't be given any chance to succeed.

He said he wouldn't tell his voters what to do. You'll never see him support the FN, doesn't mean you'll see him support Macron. I don't give a shit what people who didn't vote for him expected. People who vote for him, however, expected to make that choice themselves.

This, at least, I disagree with. The whole point of politicians is to try and convince people of how they ought to use their vote - everything Melenchon has been doing over the past however many months has been saying "these are the ideals you ought to vote for, and I will carry them forward, therefore you should vote for me".

That's a bit different than saying "put your ideals on the side and vote for this guy because this one is worst". I do believe it's not his place, and also asking people to vote for you is not the same thing as asking to vote against someone else.
He's not there to carry these ideals anymore, it's up to his voters to decide, as it was in the initial contract since the beginning.

 

[vonStirlitz]

I'd say for Marine to win at this point, she had best hope her last name is actually Lupin.

As in Arsene Lupin?

I always thought she was at the arse end of politics.

 

[Fistwell]

Thread turning into (marine) le puns.

 

[dosh]

He said he wouldn't tell his voters what to do. You'll never see him support the FN, doesn't mean you'll see him support Macron. I don't give a shit what people who didn't vote for him expected. People who vote for him, however, expected to make that choice themselves.

Which is exactly my point: he doesn't have to tell his base to vote for Macron, but he could at least say "Le Pen can't be allowed to win". Again, there's a difference.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

That's a bit different than saying "put your ideals on the side and vote for this guy because this one is worst". I do believe it's not his place, and also asking people to vote for you is not the same thing as asking to vote against someone else.
He's not there to carry these ideals anymore, it's up to his voters to decide, as it was in the initial contract since the beginning.

Not at all. If you look at Melenchon's values, it is clear that given these values the world is worse under Le Pen than Macron. By refusing to point that out, he is doing his values an injustice. He does not 'control' his voters - nobody controls their voters. They are always free to vote as they wish, and always were. However, explaining how his values would influence a 2R vote is absolutely his place, and he does a disservice to all his voters by not doing so.

Just proves Hamon was always the better candidate.

 

[Sinsem]

"Tel que l'a dit Jean-Luc Mélenchon, on va consulter les 440.000 insoumis qui ont fait cette campagne. L'affaire est simple, personne ne votera Front national. J'irai voter, mais il va y avoir plusieurs attitudes et elles sont toutes dignes. Mais quelqu'un qui va voter Marine Le Pen se trompe, parce que ça n'est pas avec la xénophobie que l'on va régler le problème. Entre le pire et ceux qui fabriquent le pire, l'un nourrit l'autre. Il faut que tout le monde comprenne bien que nous n'aurons rien à voir avec Emmanuel Macron s'il est élu président de la République".

EDIT : And let's be honest here, he'll call during this two weeks to not vote for Marine Le Pen.

 

[dosh]

"Tel que l’a dit Jean-Luc Mélenchon, on va consulter les 440.000 insoumis qui ont fait cette campagne. L’affaire est simple, personne ne votera Front national. J’irai voter, mais il va y avoir plusieurs attitudes et elles sont toutes dignes. Mais quelqu’un qui va voter Marine Le Pen se trompe, parce que ça n’est pas avec la xénophobie que l’on va régler le problème. Entre le pire et ceux qui fabriquent le pire, l’un nourrit l’autre. Il faut que tout le monde comprenne bien que nous n’aurons rien à voir avec Emmanuel Macron s’il est élu président de la République".

There it is. That wasn't that hard, and exactly what JLM should have said yesterday.

 

[Coriolanus]

fwiw, Melenchon could just take the easy way out, say that he cannot, in good conscience, sit idly by while there's the chance, however slim, that MLP might win, so he'll vote for Macron.

While not ideal, he could just leave it at that.

 

[Condom]

Well 'le Peuple' just voted for Macron and Le Pen to contest the second round. If all Melenchon stood for was representing the views of the people, he would have to abandon his views entirely and become either a fascist or a neoliberal, since on the evidence, that is where the people are. But he doesn't, because he holds independent views and values very dearly, and tries to persuade people of those. It is therefore untrue to his values to not, at the very least, argue against Le Pen.

It's normal in socialist parties to vote on supporting a certain candidate or movement, it's called party democracy. The party is seen as the voice of the workers, a way of them to speak out their needs and wants.
Racist scapegoating organizations or liberal status quo (capital) support groups are not.

And he is arguing against Le Pen, that of course doesn't need a vote.

 

[dark10x]

It's so weird watching your (awesome) Digital Foundry videos and then reading your worries about an election I had no idea would affect you that much as an American. Feel free not to answer (or PM me if you want), but out of curiosity, why would it be worse for your family?

All I can tell you is that I'm definitely voting against her in two weeks, and I'm trying my best to convince people who are thinking of abstaining not to do the same mistake people made with Trump v. Clinton.

That's because my wife and son are both French (though have dual citizenship) but we live in Germany and the EU makes our situation work. Kill the EU and things could become difficult, basically.

 

[LordKano]

There it is. That wasn't that hard, and exactly what JLM should have said yesterday.

I can hardly blame him. He was very emotionnally invested in his campaign until the very end. You could feel he was about to burst yesterday.

 

[Elandyll]

"Tel que l’a dit Jean-Luc Mélenchon, on va consulter les 440.000 insoumis qui ont fait cette campagne. L’affaire est simple, personne ne votera Front national. J’irai voter, mais il va y avoir plusieurs attitudes et elles sont toutes dignes. Mais quelqu’un qui va voter Marine Le Pen se trompe, parce que ça n’est pas avec la xénophobie que l’on va régler le problème. Entre le pire et ceux qui fabriquent le pire, l’un nourrit l’autre. Il faut que tout le monde comprenne bien que nous n’aurons rien à voir avec Emmanuel Macron s’il est élu président de la République".

EDIT : And let's be honest here, he'll call during this two weeks to not vote for Marine Le Pen.

Gotta love the "Equally bad" talk.

Never backfired before (it won't in France thanks to a 2nd round, but I'm still salty about that bullshit talk in the US coming from the left wing of the Dems. We have had almost 100 days of Trump being "pretty much equally as bad as a potential Clinton win", am I rite?)

 

[N7.Angel]

The "CRAN" ( Conseil représentatif des associations Noires de France ) take action this Monday against Lepen, the FN and their ideas after passing first round by tattooed someone with racist words, we can read strong things like " Fucking Nigga" "Go back to your savage land" "Monkey" "riffraff" Bamboula" etc...

"We want to remind people of three things: racist abuse is a crime, it opens the door to other offenses like physical aggression, and the insult leaves lasting traces on the body, like scars" said Louis-Georges Tin, President of the CRAN.

A big reminder for people who don't want to vote in second round because of their candidate losing, WE DON'T WANT LEPEN TO BE OUR NEXT PRESIDENT, DO SOMETHING, VOTE MACRON !!!

http://www.bfmtv.com/societe/paris-un-homme-tatoue-d-insultes-racistes-denonce-la-lepenisation-des-esprits-1149894.html?utm_content=buffer6cb23&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#page/contribution/index