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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
- Thread starter Holden
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Even for the Mail it's stunning how they take an arch Europhile topping the first round as proof of an imminent Frexit. Is it any wonder Wikipedia banned them as a source?
Can't wait to see forecasts in the coming week when the final results will be released.
I stil don't see the reasoning behind this.
What is sad is to see some non-FN voters having their agenda set by the FN and their fantasies that have only one goal : divide the people and keep our minds away from the roots of neoliberalism by making islam, immigration and terrorism the top priority in the country.
Every name you have posted is clearly left of the usual social democratic spectrum(except maybe Sanders).
Melenchons ideas are nice on paper like all leftists ideas but they quickly erode once realpolitik comes into play. But please tell me how he is a bastion against nationalism and xenophobia when he is the only candidate today who didn't spoke out against Lepen.
As usual with leftists everything that isn't on their side of policy is a neoliberal conspiracy.
It's simple Mélenchon is a Euroskeptic candidate, he doesn't hide it and is that close to actually wanting France out of the eurozone.
That meshes well with Putin's goal.
A strong EU is bad for Russia, Mélenchon would have weakened it.
It's not that Putin wants Mélenchon, he wants anyone who is for stalling or reversing EU integration.
Best case for Russia is FN but Asselineau or Mélenchon would be ok.
e: heck Cheminade is probably best case
I'll be brutally honest: the reason I personally don't talk much about immigration is because I simply don't know what we should do about it. There is a problem. I just don't have any idea how to solve it. All I know is that I don't believe the kinds of 'solutions' people like Marine Le Pen are offering are the right way to go about it. I also believe immigration isn't a sound foundation for a political program.
As for radical Islam, I think it's just a symptom and logical conclusion of poor integration of immigrants. And poor integration is itself just a symptom of... something else. Not sure what exactly. Also I'm not sure how much radical Islam is actually spreading. Terrorist attacks sure are impressive and traumatizing and horrible, but in the grand scheme of things, islamist attacks don't amount to that much compared to other terrorist attacks in general, or even population deaths.
harriet the spy
Member
It's completely idiotic reasoning since clearly left and right are relative, not absolute meaning. Original right wing was in favor of monarchy. By the standard all the candidates are left wing. Also by that argument le pen is not explicitly far right since she is not officially in favor of fascism.
Those words are only useful in the relative context of a country's political spectrum - everything else is just 'fly fucking'.
TTOOLL
Member
Maybe some of them don't want to integrate at all? They want their radical culture to be maintained wherever they are and if so that's a big problem since they are radicals.
Yes they are left of a social democracy that went closer to the center, but that doesn't mean that they are "far left" (which has a precise definition in political science).
The part in bold is your personnal opinion on his platform. I agree that he should have spoken more against Le Pen in his short speech, but he always has been strong against the FN family, including in this campaign.
I never said a word about any conspiracy.
"Mélenchon was a late attempt from Putin to derail Macron"
I understand what you stay but still don't understand how that makes your hypothesis valid : there is no link between Mélenchon being an objective ally for Putin (being less atlantist and less europhile) and Mélenchon being secretly supported by Putin (the main question being : how?).
I'm not convinced he's center left. Even if he was in a left-center government.
I may even think he's at the right of Chirac on many points, Chirac being officially a right president (even if on some points he's strongly leaning center or even left).
It's hard to have clear-cut placement, especially recently. And he avoided himself being too precise to gather as much support as possible.
benjipwns
Banned
No, no, see Vladimir Putin inserted Melenchon into the French Socialist Party back in the 1970s with the long term goal of having him suddenly appear out of thin air 40 years later to run for the French Presidency, a second time, and undermine the Socialist candidate helping to get the pro-EU Macron elected as part of his master nineteenth dimensional chess plan.
Putin supported directly Lepen already, Mélenchon had a large internet base (as in people).
Putin certainly could have provided support there.
We also know that RT and other Russian channel tried to influence French election using fake stories and such.
Some were used by Melenchon stooges to tear down Macron.
He doesn't need to send big bag of money to support Mélenchon either.
It's no campaign or much thought behind it, lol. I said it was a "tinfoil hat" thing. But if one buys into the idea that Putin is single handedly manipulating elections everywhere (I don't believe so) then Mélenchon suddenly having a big online presence on social media in the last few weeks seems suspicious, if you didn't know about Mélenchon before.
It was painfully obvious how bots on Twitter, RT, Wikileaks and Sputnik suddenly preaching talking against Macron after polls showed he had a real chance, so it's not the most outlandish idea that, with the prospect of Le Pen fading, they tried to get another candidate to take away votes from Macron, this time from the left.
But, again, my "bad hypothesis" was a way to ask for any info from you or others here on the subject or if anybody else has talked about it.
Like Mael said, I don't think there was any direct contact between Mélenchon and Russia, but there doesn't need to be in order for internet bots and pro-Russian agencies to detect a potential new candidate in the race that could help their interest.
The problem with this reasoning is:
1) Assuming this is true, do we have any reliable data on this?
2) Assuming this is true still, that doesn't answer the underlying question: why don't they want to integrate at all? Why do they want to preserve the more radical aspects of their culture? And that's usually the part where anti-immigration rhetoric falls apart. If you dig deep enough, the argument will almost always come down to a variation on the theme of "because their savages who can't comprehend our superior values". Well, maybe we suck at welcoming these 'savages', and that fosters resentment after a couple generations and a desire to reject the culture?
More data from Ipsos (tonight's polls)
Very interresting
http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/f...elle-2017-comprendre-le-vote-des-francais.pdf
http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/f...ciologie-des-electorats_23-avril-2017-21h.pdf
He's more supported by center leaning voters, then center-left voters, then left voters, then center right voters, the "ni gauche ni droite" voters, then right voters (as they define themselves, see the poll above), but he'll likely govern more to the center-right, especially if he succeeds at making alliances and pulls faces from the right-wing party in his government. We'll see then but his platform is really the best-of of a centrist agenda (I was going to say "soft neoliberalism" but someone could say I see conspiracies everywhere haha)
Brilliant! Now I regret voting for Putin.
So that's another hypothesis that you have yet to explain in details. Besides RT/Sputnik who like to cover Mélenchon (among others), I don't really see anything explaining his success. It's pretty simple : he did a great campaign by himself, using the Internet like no other candidate and gaining credibility that brought him Hamon voters and non-voting people who wanted an alternative to Fillon-Le Pen-Macron, based on the momentum that he got in the polls since the end of March. Pretty simple.
Which fake stories from RT Mélenchon used against Macron ?
Fillon supporters did a lot of fake news but I haven't seen much from Mélenchon supporters. The biggest fake news they had was the bigdata polling which turned out to be the worst of all.
Anyway, everyone have a good night
96% of voters
Emmanuel MACRON, 8 411 710 people, 23,91%
Marine LE PEN, 7 536 339, 21,42%
François FILLON, 7 017 435, 19,94%
Jean-Luc MÉLENCHON, 6 876 880, 19,54%
700.000 people can change the world haha
Very interresting
http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/f...elle-2017-comprendre-le-vote-des-francais.pdf
http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/f...ciologie-des-electorats_23-avril-2017-21h.pdf
He's more supported by center leaning voters, then center-left voters, then left voters, then center right voters, the "ni gauche ni droite" voters, then right voters (as they define themselves, see the poll above), but he'll likely govern more to the center-right, especially if he succeeds at making alliances and pulls faces from the right-wing party in his government. We'll see then but his platform is really the best-of of a centrist agenda (I was going to say "soft neoliberalism" but someone could say I see conspiracies everywhere haha)
Brilliant! Now I regret voting for Putin.
So that's another hypothesis that you have yet to explain in details. Besides RT/Sputnik who like to cover Mélenchon (among others), I don't really see anything explaining his success. It's pretty simple : he did a great campaign by himself, using the Internet like no other candidate and gaining credibility that brought him Hamon voters and non-voting people who wanted an alternative to Fillon-Le Pen-Macron, based on the momentum that he got in the polls since the end of March. Pretty simple.
Which fake stories from RT Mélenchon used against Macron ?
Fillon supporters did a lot of fake news but I haven't seen much from Mélenchon supporters. The biggest fake news they had was the bigdata polling which turned out to be the worst of all.
Anyway, everyone have a good night
96% of voters
Emmanuel MACRON, 8 411 710 people, 23,91%
Marine LE PEN, 7 536 339, 21,42%
François FILLON, 7 017 435, 19,94%
Jean-Luc MÉLENCHON, 6 876 880, 19,54%
700.000 people can change the world haha
No, "radicalism" isn't just a belief; radicalism is sown by bigger problems. It's not as simple as 'radicals will be radicals'. Radicals can be created over the span of one generation thanks to personal, local or national issues. It can also be destroyed in the same timeframe or propagated in the same timeframe.
whyamihere
Banned
Well, huh.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Seeing how close 2nd and 4th was it's a shame Le Pen did not exit sooner. But anyone treating this as a win for her is ignorant or lying, she was in first place for 2 years and primed to get 30% of the vote. She finished below all her polling and nearly 10 percent below her peak.
whyamihere
Banned
Man, Le Pen was polling 28-30% for most of last year. It's been a really soft decline for her since.
I feel like her only chance to make it was a 30% result in the first round and going against Fillon. Not sure what her play is now.
I feel like her only chance to make it was a 30% result in the first round and going against Fillon. Not sure what her play is now.
Red Arremer
Member
I can see her easily getting up to 30+% in the second round, since she'll probably get some of Fillon's and Melenchon's voters, but yeah, it's good to see that even a recognized force such as Le Pen and her FN have been losing. I think that Trump and Brexit made many Europeans realize that nationalist trash isn't gonna work out after all.
I hope this bodes well for the French parliamentary elections.
I hope this bodes well for the French parliamentary elections.
Macron had a pretty horrendous speech and she has Hitler style levels of populist speaking. She needs to hammer that he will keep dragging France down, play into anti-Islam, ultranationalist fears and then also make Macron seem inept. Fear based voting always stronger than logic based voting. Look how Netanyahu took the election near the last day making it seem like Israel was facing an existential crisis if Netanyahu lost, the Palestinians would swarm in blah blah.
The margin is too high for her to make up. The majority of France is just not ultranationalist and far right. They are shifting, but that is why the centre left lost and will keep losing for a while. I do not see any way Marine Le Pen wins without some massive security event/terror attack coupled with some major gaffes by Macron etc. The scary part is how is Putin and Russia going to use these next 2 weeks+...
whyamihere
Banned
I guess what I meant to say is: I know exactly what her play is but I don't think it'll work. I don't know if she actually has anything she could do to get 50+1%.
Yoda
Member
I'm not sure Macron is "center-left". Similar to other establishment favorite candidates, on economic policies, he's center-right at best (at best assuming you have a left PoV).
Golden_Pigeon
Banned
Why speaking about integration when you speak about french ? The main target of the discourse against radical islam is salafism, which is not cultural but ideological. It's not a lack of integration or another culture, it's a counter-culture like goth, rap, skinhead, punk, catho tradi, lubavitch or nerd. I am of course speaking of regular salafism and not Isis/aq. For instance, there is a surrepresentation of convert in the salafists groups: how could be a problem of intégration when the salafist is named Jean Pierre ou Arnaud? I think we are really missing the point when we are tackling the issue with a culturalist approach.
I think also that it's an issue well alimented by all political parties, not only the FN. It's the bread and butter of french politics since 2004, even last summer we had the ridiculous "burkini" affair.
A new right-right wing party with the same anti-immigration rhetoric, a more liberal leaning economic policy (keep the euro, stay in the EU but renegociate key treaties) and without the LePen name would pretty much sweep the election.
Old people agree with Marine Le Pen on pretty much every social issue but they want to stay in the Euro zone so they voted for fillon.
Xisiqomelir
Member
Why is Cheminade "unclassifiable"?
Lord Frieza
Member
Are most right-wing parties anti-EU, though? Could a party like that actually survive and not become totally fractured?
benjipwns
Banned
Lyndon LaRouche
Why is Cheminade "unclassifiable"?
vonStirlitz
Unconfirmed Member
I find it interesting how so many people ascribe voting to Russian interference. Its like Russia is the new target for the three minute hate.
Its intellectually dishonest. Firstly, it ascribes agency to Russia, like "OMG those Russians fixed our election again". Secondly it denies agency to voters, like "OMG no one would have voted FN if it werent for those Russians".
Aside from deep issues of causation and agency, it is orientalising Russia and creating a mythical hate figure with magical unseen powers of transforming sovereign voting intentions. It also avoids focusing on why voters might choose unpalatable candidates by denying analysis and instead blaming this constructed outside threat.
Its borderline tinfoil hat wearing conspiracy theory. This need for a bogeyman. It comes up in every political thread that has peripheral relation to Russia.
Its intellectually dishonest. Firstly, it ascribes agency to Russia, like "OMG those Russians fixed our election again". Secondly it denies agency to voters, like "OMG no one would have voted FN if it werent for those Russians".
Aside from deep issues of causation and agency, it is orientalising Russia and creating a mythical hate figure with magical unseen powers of transforming sovereign voting intentions. It also avoids focusing on why voters might choose unpalatable candidates by denying analysis and instead blaming this constructed outside threat.
Its borderline tinfoil hat wearing conspiracy theory. This need for a bogeyman. It comes up in every political thread that has peripheral relation to Russia.
Red Arremer
Member
Because he's a nutty conspiracy theorist.
Most right-wing parties are anti-EU, yes, but that's mostly because they use the EU as a scapegoat, casting it as the root of all problems for the respective countries and such.
That said, I do believe that a right pro-EU party could survive. Most conservatives are right and support the EU. And some conservative parties are a lot more right on especially economic topics than right winger parties are (or at least claim to be).
While demonizing Russia and not looking at the actual facts is of course bad, fact of the matter is that Russia IS supporting (and I believe in the case of the FN even funding) the right wing parties across Europe. They're not doing it because they care much about right wing politics, but rather because the right wing parties are the strongest movements that are anti-EU, and weakening if not destroying the EU is in Putin's interest. The EU is one of the world's strongest powers economically and politically, fracturing their unified power by making them go back into isolated nations that only look out for themselves would heavily weaken one of Putin's biggest rivals on the planet. That is the end goal here, and we have to be aware of that.
And without Russian funding, the FN certainly could not have put up such a big campaign.
benjipwns
Banned
The Left Front was organized out of the remnants of the French Communist Party. The French Communist Party's Secretary General from 1930 to 1964 was Maurice Thorez. Maurce Thorez spent World War II where? In the Soviet Union! Who supported his bid for leadership and control of the French Communist Party versus Trotskyites? Joseph Stalin! Where was Joseph Stalin buried? In the Kremlin Walls! Where are the Kremlin Walls Necropolis located today? RUSSIA!
I rest my case. Officers, take him away.
Take him to Detroit.
Mr. Blonde
Member
she has a much, much, much larger chance of winning in 2017 than her father did in 2002
You Are Viewtiful
Member
In this case, Russian banks bankrolling the FN campaign is well documented and public information. It's not a conspiracy theory.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Melenchon isn't a Putin puppet, he's just a dumbfuck who jerks off to Lenin pictures.
Lord Frieza
Member
It's pretty much a known fact that Russia has been using the internet and it's propaganda news network to influence elections, and it as noted above, sounds like FN is directly known to have Putin money flowing in. It's not some conspiracy theory. I don't think anyone realistically believes that everything happening now is purely on Russia, but Russia has been instrumental in drumming up certain sentiments and propping up right-wing candidates and parties.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I don't think anything Russia is doing with the French election is game changing megaton stuff, they are still giving money to FN and using bots to spread propaganda.
What they did in the US was beyond the pale though. Hacking campaigns and party committees and releasing the information is outrageous. Hopefully everyone on the Macron team has been told how to protect their damn passwords.
What they did in the US was beyond the pale though. Hacking campaigns and party committees and releasing the information is outrageous. Hopefully everyone on the Macron team has been told how to protect their damn passwords.
djplaeskool
Member
Bonne chance.
Another American here hoping cooler heads prevail. I'm burned out on all this EU doom-talk.
This is somehow even funnier. lmao
Another American here hoping cooler heads prevail. I'm burned out on all this EU doom-talk.
This is somehow even funnier. lmao
I'm pretty sure Macron's campaign announced they had had unsuccessful attacks
But they did spread rumours he was gay, because I guess that's all they had
whyamihere
Banned
Final department vote:
EDIT: Yellow = Macron, Black = Le Pen, Blue = Fillon, Red = Melenchon
EDIT: Yellow = Macron, Black = Le Pen, Blue = Fillon, Red = Melenchon
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Dark is Le Pen, right? I remember looking at match up polling for her and Macron that she was strongest in the southeast.Final department vote:
Red Arremer
Member
Yellow is Macron, Black is Le Pen, Blue is Fillon and Red(...?) is Melenchon I assume.
You are correct red is Melenchon.
And I think Macron can get around 25 million votes in the second round while le pen gets between 10-12 millon votes.
Final department vote:
Both departments I lived in voted for Le Pen.
Bleuargh
Hopefully French people living outside of France didn't vote for her. I can't find results for them yet.
whyamihere
Banned
wow yeah I should've posted colors sorry
Stock market wants a Macron win
http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/23/investing/french-election-market-reaction/index.html
This seems pretty likely based on what I'm reading in this thread.
http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/23/investing/french-election-market-reaction/index.html
This seems pretty likely based on what I'm reading in this thread.
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