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[Magni]

Just got an email from the UDF-MODEM candidate for my district (why him? no idea) with results per voting center for voters registered in the 11th overseas district, in pretty much the worst format possible (three separate PDFs, with the different candidates spread out over the three different files).

For Japan:
Kyoto
Macron: 35,12%
Mélenchon: 29,75%
Hamon: 11,57%
Fillon: 10,95%
Le Pen: 5,58%
(also Cheminade: 0,00% lol)

Participation: 45,43%

Tokyo
Macron: 41,02%
Fillon: 21,16%
Mélenchon: 19,92%
Hamon: 7,28%
Le Pen: 5,43%
(Cheminade beat Arthaud here, who only got 0,03% of the vote)

Participation: 64,22%

No vote totals or overall country percentages, but I'm guessing it's closer to the Tokyo results overall. As for the big differences between the two, I'm guessing Kyoto has a much bigger share of students studying abroad (vs working/retired expats) than Tokyo does.

Looking at the rest of the 11th circumscription, the only places where Le Pen comes in the top two were:
• Belarus - 27,42% of the vote. Fillon comes in first with 32.26%
• Ekaterinburg, Russia - tied for first with Fillon for 28,57% (only 28% overall participation)
• Vanuatu - 20,00% of the vote. Fillon comes in first with with 36.14% (and Macron was right behind her with 19.52%)

She didn't get a single vote in Yemen, Shenyang in China, Calcutta in India, or Tajikistan*.

Full results in their original horrible format here:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/hb3mg5u4qtzbc4b/resultats%2011%20eme.pdf?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/5mtdq3wds71idz7/resultats%20circo%2011%20eme%20bis.pdf?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/n9d272ztapngzay/resultats%20circo%2011%20eme%20ter.pdf?dl=0

edit: Tajikistan had 0 votes total, despite people being registered there.

 

[Ac30]

How did Cheminade ever get the required 500 signatures lmao, seems like a bit of a joke

 

[EmiPrime]

How did Cheminade ever get the required 500 signatures lmao, seems like a bit of a joke

500 people really wanted to know the truth regarding the British royal family's drug smuggling ring.

 

[Ac30]

500 people really wanted to know the truth regarding the British royal family's drug smuggling ring.

He said this? You're kidding.

Does he have a podcast, asking for a friend

 

[Mimosa97]

• Belarus - 27,42% of the vote. Fillon comes in first with 32.26%
• Ekaterinburg, Russia - tied for first with Fillon for 28,57% (only 28% overall participation)
• Vanuatu - 20,00% of the vote. Fillon comes in first with with 36.14% (and Macron was right behind her with 19.52%)

She didn't get a single vote in Yemen, Shenyang in China, Calcutta in India, or Tajikistan.

We are everywhere ... Jesus

 

[EmiPrime]

He said this? You're kidding.

Does he have a podcast, asking for a friend

Ac30 pls.

Are you sure this a rabbit hole you want to go down?

 

[Magni]

We are everywhere ... Jesus

I've lived outside of France in the US, Norway, Chile, and now Japan, and yes, there are Frenchies everywhere.

 

[Ac30]

Ac30 pls.

Are you sure this a rabbit hole you want to go down?

Depends, is this the hole where Queen Lizzie hides the royal dope?

No wonder they call her your highness

Hahahah

Ha

...

Welcome to the InfoWar

 

[Mimosa97]

I've lived outside of France in the US, Norway, Chile, and now Japan, and yes, there are Frenchies everywhere.

Damn I'm jealous

What's your mother tongue ? French or english ?

 

[Magni]

Damn I'm jealous

What's your mother tongue ? French or english ?

I learned French first, but I've spoken both since before I can remember (~4 years old).

Never too late to out and explore!

edit: curious as to how many GAFers think I'm just American because of my avatar. The French third of the flag is pretty much completely hidden by the Abra. (No Chilean or Japanese bits in there since this avatar is super old, from before I lived in either country).

 

[Alx]

An amusing article about the failed attempts at smearing Macron on Reddit :
http://www.lemonde.fr/pixels/articl...iser-pour-nuire-a-macron_5117362_4408996.html

Apparently us French are too bad at English, and Redditters too bad at French, for such attempts to gain traction.

 

[Palette Swap]

Good to see Estrosi asking for the removal of LR officials who announce they won't fight MLP. Seeing parliamentaries like that guy I mentioned earlier saying he might vote for Le Pen is unprecedented. Any ambivalence on their part on this issue would ensure I'd never vote for them again.

An amusing article about the failed attempts at smearing Macron on Reddit :
http://www.lemonde.fr/pixels/articl...iser-pour-nuire-a-macron_5117362_4408996.html

Apparently us French are too bad at English, and Redditters to bad at French, for such attempts to gain traction.

To be fair, we might get a president who knows more English words than America's current president.

 

[gutter_trash]

An amusing article about the failed attempts at smearing Macron on Reddit :
http://www.lemonde.fr/pixels/articl...iser-pour-nuire-a-macron_5117362_4408996.html

Apparently us French are too bad at English, and Redditters to bad at French, for such attempts to gain traction.

too hilarious;

one of the times when the Langauge Barrier serves as a good thing.

Poor UK though

 

[whyamihere]

An amusing article about the failed attempts at smearing Macron on Reddit :
http://www.lemonde.fr/pixels/articl...iser-pour-nuire-a-macron_5117362_4408996.html

Apparently us French are too bad at English, and Redditters to bad at French, for such attempts to gain traction.

Oh wow, this is funny.

 

[Tiberius]

An amusing article about the failed attempts at smearing Macron on Reddit :
http://www.lemonde.fr/pixels/articl...iser-pour-nuire-a-macron_5117362_4408996.html

Apparently us French are too bad at English, and Redditters too bad at French, for such attempts to gain traction.

Pour une fois que notre faiblesse dans l'apprentissage des langues étrangères nous est utile

 

[Mimosa97]

I love how among american trolls we went from being those dirty french cowards who love to surrender to being portrayed as the valiant people who represent the last chance to save Europe.

Like bitch are you for real

 

[gutter_trash]

I love how among american trolls we went from being those dirty french cowards who love to surrender to being portrayed as the valiant people who represent the last chance to save Europe.

Like bitch are you for real

 

[Magni]

An amusing article about the failed attempts at smearing Macron on Reddit :
http://www.lemonde.fr/pixels/articl...iser-pour-nuire-a-macron_5117362_4408996.html

Apparently us French are too bad at English, and Redditters too bad at French, for such attempts to gain traction.

From that article:

What does this even say?

 

[Blackpuppy]

From that article:

What does this even say?

 

[whyamihere]

@Taniel
French runoff is in 12 days. 3 polls released today:
Macron +22% (ifop: 61/39)
Macron +22% (opinionway: 61/39)
Macron +28% (elabe: 64/36)

Keep your emails safe, Macron! Don't do anything huge!

 

[Kilrogg]

An amusing article about the failed attempts at smearing Macron on Reddit :
http://www.lemonde.fr/pixels/articl...iser-pour-nuire-a-macron_5117362_4408996.html

Apparently us French are too bad at English, and Redditters too bad at French, for such attempts to gain traction.

Huh? Unless I misread the whole thing, it's more like the other way around: English-speaking Trump/Le Pen supporters trying to reach French voters by hijacking Reddit and making memes, only they're completely failing at that because they suck so much at French.

 

[Alx]

Huh? Unless I misread the whole thing, it's more like the other way around: English-speaking Trump/Le Pen supporters trying to reach French voters by hijacking Reddit and making memes, only they're completely failing at that because they sucks so much at French.

Well it's two sides of the same coin, French people don't go to anglophone forums, which leaves the alt-right communities full of people from all countries except for France ; hence their lack of ability to produce French memes. Even the subreddit dedicated to Le Pen apparently lost its few French members.

 

[Kilrogg]

Well it's two sides of the same coin, French people don't go to anglophone forums, which leaves the alt-right communities full of people from all countries except for France ; hence their lack of ability to produce French memes. Even the subreddit dedicated to Le Pen apparently lost its few French members.

Oh definitely, but I was under the impression that the article was highlighting alt-righters who can't speak French well rather than the inverse.

About the bolded: ain't that the truth. If they did go to anglophone forums (or foreign websites in general), they'd be less eager to shout dangerous opinions like "ni Macron ni Le Pen" or "Le Pen has no chance of winning". They'd remember the US elections, however different the electoral system is over there. They'd be more aware of the nationalistic shitstorm that's been unleashed on the Western world over the past few months. They'd realize that pretty much every democratic country is trembling in its boots at the thought of Le Pen winning. They'd realize that European countries are pinning their hopes on us and we'll look like tools if we dash those hopes. I'm fully expecting years of "You were warned", "We told you so", "You had one fucking job" and "Thanks, France" directed at us if Le Pen wins. And the worst part is: it'll be 100% deserved.

That's the one thing I hate about my people: we always believe we're so much better than the rest and we don't need anyone else. We're not international-minded enough. We're basically Europe's Japan in that regard.

 

[dosh]

She didn't get a single vote in [...] Tajikistan.

... is not a sentence I ever expected to read. I mean, I've met fellow frenchies abroad, but Tadjikistan?

 

[mo60]

An amusing article about the failed attempts at smearing Macron on Reddit :
http://www.lemonde.fr/pixels/articl...iser-pour-nuire-a-macron_5117362_4408996.html

Apparently us French are too bad at English, and Redditters too bad at French, for such attempts to gain traction.

Pol fails to recognize that going after him negatively won't work to well because Macron will not respond to them much or care about them and instead focus on bringing his message to french people.

 

[Palette Swap]

... is not a sentence I ever expected to read. I mean, I've met fellow frenchies abroad, but Tadjikistan?

I guess the best way to look at it is: do we have diplomatic representation there? Do we have economic or scientific/academic interests (typically energy) there?
So yeah, I assume there's voters almost everywhere.

 

[dosh]

I guess the best way to look at it is: do we have diplomatic representation there? Do we have economic or scientific/academic interests (typically energy) there?
So yeah, I assume there's voters almost everywhere.

I googled that earlier, but then I clicked on "Tadjikistan paysages" on Google images and I got lost. I mean, seriously.

But back to that initial search, you were right, french companies are way more present than I'd have thought: GDF, Alstom, Legrand, St Gobain, even Auchan.

 

[Ac30]

I love how among american trolls we went from being those dirty french cowards who love to surrender to being portrayed as the valiant people who represent the last chance to save Europe.

Like bitch are you for real

You're the last hope against the foreign hordes!

We need to shop that Bioshock Infonite pic with a french flag and that red pointy hat whose name escapes me


EDIT: FI is now voting on what they should tell their members to do - if they all abstain or vote blanc, LePen will win; that's 10% of the previous round sitting it out. Fucking hell. Let's hope they don't.

 

[Coffinhal]

Aside from closing "welcome to immigrants" borders, you should read and follow french politics, everything from Le Pen program is more left than the french "democrats" program. Actually she is very close to Melenchon on every subjects, except that she is not trying to please everyone and being vague about some sensible stuffs.

That's really the level zero of political analysis but the best of clichés. You should read and follow researchers from social sciences who actually study these topics with a depth you clearly lack.

A short (historical) introduction on the differences between the left and the FN
http://www.fakirpresse.info/Front-national-virage-social
http://www.fakirpresse.info/Front-national-virage-social-2-3
http://www.fakirpresse.info/Front-national-virage-social-3-3

As for saying that Mélenchon agrees with Le Pen "on every subject", let's do some basic fact-checking. Go to lemonde.fr/programmes/ and select Mélenchon and Le Pen and scroll. They disagree on most of the topics. Do the same for Le Pen and Macron and you'll see around the same amount of agree/disagree.

Of course every topic should have a little text explaining why they agree when,they agree (because they don't represent at all the same ideology or don't come from the same political history)

 

[Ac30]

I watched Macron's emission on TV1 and he was a lot better than when he gave his speech on April 23rd, oof. The man sucks absolute balls when he speaks in public, he's oddly more composed on TV.

 

[Alx]

I've heard an interesting comment about Sunday's speech, apparently he had different versions prepared and the original was apparently more "lyric" and enthusiastic, but he didn't want to appear too smug, so he went for a tame one to appear more open to the other parties.
Only in the end it turned out boring and vapid, and had the exact effect he wanted to avoid, "Macron don't care".

 

[Magni]

All this Tajikistan talk had me look at the numbers again, turns out nobody bothered to vote for anyone. 0% participation.

Not sure how many people are registered to vote there, but Frenchies do live there. I met some once in the US, they were working in the oil sector there.

 

[AntiFacebook]

Why wasn't the acting president running? Does France have a limit on the number of terms a president can be in office?

 

[Hypron]

Why wasn't the acting president running? Does France have a limit on the number of terms a president can be in office?

He's extremely unpopular.

 

[UnluckyKate]

Why wasn't the acting president running? Does France have a limit on the number of terms a president can be in office?

never a president going out been so unpopular.

 

[Blackpuppy]

Why wasn't the acting president running? Does France have a limit on the number of terms a president can be in office?

His approval ratings are so abysmally low, he's a liability more than anything else. He (thankfully) bowed out but little good that did Hamon (the candidate for Holland's party).

 

[Alx]

Btw there is a limit on the number of terms, you can't run more than twice in a row (I think you can make a break and come back, but it never really happened). But yeah Hollande was on his first presidency, he could have run but he had no chance.
I think that if he had tried, things would have been much different though, he would probably have more votes than Hamon did, and taken some from Macron, so in the end Fillon or Mélenchon would be in second round (probably Fillon, since Mélenchon benefitted a lot from Hamon's losses).

 

[Magni]

Btw there is a limit on the number of terms, you can't run more than twice in a row (I think you can make a break and come back, but it never really happened). But yeah Hollande was on his first presidency, he could have run but he had no chance.
I think that if he had tried, things would have been much different though, he would probably have more votes than Hamon did, and taken some from Macron, so in the end Fillon or Mélenchon would be in second round (probably Fillon, since Mélenchon benefitted a lot from Hamon's losses).

What are the latest approval numbers for Hollande? The one that's seared in my mind is 4%, and relative to that, Hamon did well (over 50% better ). Yes, apples to oranges, but still.

 

[Herb Alpert]

Macron's second round campaign has been abysmal so far. As soon as monday morning lepen was shaking hands, she's everywhere.
Meanwhile he's on the defensive about his dinner party.

Definitely reminds me of the US elections...

I hope people will vote. Lepen has a good chance to win.

 

[Alx]

What are the latest approval numbers for Hollande? The one that's seared in my mind is 4%, and relative to that, Hamon did well (over 50% better ). Yes, apples to oranges, but still.

It's currently at 22% apparently. I'm not sure what the 4% mentioned by John Oliver were, maybe the "very satisfied" ratio, rather than "very satisfied + somewhat satisfied".

http://www.ifop.fr/media/poll/3733-1-study_file.pdf

 

[Alx]

So did Mélenchon come out of the woods and give voting instructions ? Weren't they voting internally about it yesterday ?

 

[KingSnake]

Macron's second round campaign has been abysmal so far. As soon as monday morning lepen was shaking hands, she's everywhere.
Meanwhile he's on the defensive about his dinner party.

Definitely reminds me of the US elections...

I hope people vote will vote. Lepen has a good chance to win.

I would argue that Macron needs to not make mistakes, so not being too active might help with that. Lepen is the one that needs to try to gather as much as she can.

And no, she doesn't yet have a good chance to win. See also the most recent polls.

If she would have a chance the polls need to move closer to 45-55 interval.

 

[Magni]

It's currently at 22% apparently. I'm not sure what the 4% mentioned by John Oliver were, maybe the "very satisfied" ratio, rather than "very satisfied + somewhat satisfied".

http://www.ifop.fr/media/poll/3733-1-study_file.pdf

From this back in October: http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/art...e-une-impopularite-record_5019914_823448.html

Just checked the same source (CEVIPOF), he's now at 9% : https://www.enef.fr/app/download/15534147525/ENEF_vague13_avril2017.pdf?t=1492592203

edit: here's the evolution of their numbers:

Quite different from IFOP's numbers...

 

[Alx]

I would argue that Macron needs to not make mistakes, so not being too active might help with that. Lepen is the one that needs to try to gather as much as she can.

And no, she doesn't yet have a good chance to win. See also the most recent polls.

If she would have a chance the polls need to move closer to 45-55 interval.

Yeah the polls are favourable but we're still in the continuation of the first round.
People will think more closely about both candidates and their programs in the following days, and things could change. I still hope we'll get that 60/40 gap (wish for a much larger one though), but I won't put too much confidence in the polls until at least next week.

Quite different from IFOP's numbers...

Indeed !
The satisfaction question is a bit weird anyway. I don't think I've had any strong opinion one way or another towards the presidency, even when I didn't like the person. "Satisfied" is too vague, at least focus on a topic : social, economic, ...
I guess that explains the difference, I would have answered "neither satisfied nor dissatisfied" to Cevipof, but probably "somewhat satisfied" to Ifop.

 

[KingSnake]

Yeah the polls are favourable but we're still in the continuation of the first round.
People will think more closely about both candidates and their programs in the following days, and things could change. I still hope we'll get that 60/40 gap (wish for a much larger one though), but I won't put too much confidence in the polls until at least next week.

I don't think that there are too many people who haven't properly thought about the second round yet. Maybe some of Melenchon's supporters who believed he will go through.

 

[Palette Swap]

Macron's second round campaign has been abysmal so far. As soon as monday morning lepen was shaking hands, she's everywhere.
Meanwhile he's on the defensive about his dinner party.

Definitely reminds me of the US elections...

I hope people vote will vote. Lepen has a good chance to win.

It was a bit better yesterday, but yeah, Les Échos summed it up when they called it a faux départ. That's some lost momentum. Bayrou and Ferrand both implied they knocked some sense into him.

At least, this morning on the radio his economic advisor was doing a good job explaining individual cases and what their policies meant for people as opposed to the far right's.

Discussing what other parties should do should be immaterial to his campaign and they should focus on winning on their own merits.

 

[marc^o^]

To be fair, we might get a president who knows more English words than America's current president.

What makes this hilarious is that it's true.

 

[Fisico]

So in order for some to maybe understand why some voters might abstain here are two of numerous pictures I've seen on social network

"Come on Michel we need to stop the FN now.
Also while you're at it you will have 10 extra unpaid work hours"

"French electoral system"

1st case
"But I wanted to vote Arthaud..."
"If you do that it will be the banker Macron that will pass, vote Melenchon !"

2nd case
"Voted"

3rd case
"Le Pen is a damn racist, but I can't vote Macron either dude, I'd rather vote white"
"Noooooo, you can't do that ! it's our duty as a citizen to stop Le Pen at all cost"

4th case
"Voted"

5th case
"Mr Macron you've been elected with a vast majority, according to you what does it mean ?"

6th case
"It's a pretty clear message that millions of citizens sent"
"The french don't want anymore of these outdated social gains"

I'm not endorsing anything, they're not factually correct (not fully incorrect mind) neither do I necessary agree with it, but the one line comments "Are you just batshit crazy to not vote against this female nazi" needs to be nuanced a little bit.

I think if you want to convince anyone to vote for Macron when he clearly doesn't represent anything you wish for, it'll be better to at least understand their mindset.
Staying in some kind of bubble thinking it's a "good vs evil" choice will not accomplish anything, it sure didn't not so long ago.

As Hollande said what's at stake is not who will win, that's a given (unless you don't know France), but to have the gap to be as wide as possible.

In that regard Macron already failed in many aspects imo, it's also his duty to not let Le Pen let their duel be about the "System" vs "Anti system" both on the political side (he might be a new face but he's been behind the political scene ever since he finish his studies) and economical side ("what do french have to gain electing someone who is clearly not on the side of the workers") because it will only deserve him.
Unlike Chirac 15 years ago he can't get away anymore with the debate and he's not some "well liked" figure of the political landscape at all.

The debate next week will be interesting, either Macron goes for a full honest debate, either he goes the easy dismissive way or some kind of mix, anyway I think it's only a debate for him to lose, Le Pen is well used at this thing and will be on the offensive.

 

[Magni]

I hope he schools her like Clinton schooled Trump, but I'm a lot less confident.

Macron and his team should take a long hard look at Remain and Clinton - they need to focus on the positives of their program, not the negatives of Le Pen's. Macron doesn't even need to focus on Le Pen, the rest of the political class, bar the useless Mélenchon, is doing so for him.

Make the positive case for Europe, for incremental reform across the board, labor, ecology, etc.

 

[Alx]

@Fisico : I totally agree that the "good vs evil" argument is just bad. It's too easy for the FN to picture as an unfair position, especially since they've been quite good at cleaning their image.
The Macron team started the second round campaign saying they wanted to convince with their program, and it's the right thing to do, even if it's not the easiest. I think they especially need to explain in details the (positive) consequences of some major parts of the program, and shake off that silly reputation "he's a banker, rooting for rich people".

No sooner than a few minutes ago, I was having a discussion with a couple of people (very) negative against Macron, one of them said
- (Him) It's always all about the rich and big companies... what about protecting employees, so they can get unemployment support even when they resign ? Also why can't independent entrepreneurs have access to social protection ?
- (Me) Er, it's exactly what he proposes in his program... *quotes*
- (Him) ... , well, it's only a trick to make people accept underpaid jobs !

Some people aren't even aware of how what he offers is actually in line with some of their own expectations (and also have a hard time accepting it, but that's another problem).