Well let's hope it's not on the level of his sunday speech. I can't remember when I heard something that bad, that was beyond ridiculous.
The debate is a trap I'm not sure he's equiped to deal with properly.
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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
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Well let's hope it's not on the level of his sunday speech. I can't remember when I heard something that bad, that was beyond ridiculous.
The debate is a trap I'm not sure he's equiped to deal with properly.
Macron is terrible at speeches but he is much better when he has a single adversary to argue against, he's like a Rottweiler once he gets going, he's relentless and won't back down until he has said what he has wanted to. I really think he will tear her to shreds in a debate.
Cabaratier
Neo Member
Been missing this thread for a few days, I guess there's already been a debate on leftists who don't want to vote on round 2 ?
Obviously, I encourage everyone to kick MLP's ass, even if that means turning against Macron when (if) he wins. As a reminder, legitimacy will come with the législatives. Chirac got elected with 80% in 2002 but that didn't prevent him from losing every election after that.
Also I think the left might pay the price of JLM not backing Macron. A lot of people counted on him, his silence might please his voters but I really think others are disappointed.
Obviously, I encourage everyone to kick MLP's ass, even if that means turning against Macron when (if) he wins. As a reminder, legitimacy will come with the législatives. Chirac got elected with 80% in 2002 but that didn't prevent him from losing every election after that.
Also I think the left might pay the price of JLM not backing Macron. A lot of people counted on him, his silence might please his voters but I really think others are disappointed.
As much as the Primaires are criticized now, I think they played a role in Hollande not running. He knew he had no chance with this system, whereas if all had been internally managed, he could have found a way. To me that's the good thing about the Primaires : thanks to them Hollande and Sarkozy didn't stand a chance to be PS and LR candidates.
I'm fairly confident french people don't want Le Pen for president. Just by math, even if there's more abstention, Macron will gain more votes than Le Pen in the second round. Since he's already ahead, there's very minimal risk of a surprise happening.
As Macron won also the first round and everybody elsewho matters except Melenchon provided support for him, even if all Melenchon voters would abstain I don't see how could MLP win. The danger here would be if a lot of Melenchon voters could vote MLP.
Looking at the current polls I think they already mirror quite a significant number of abstaining Melenchon voters which are partially set of by people who didn't vote in the first round but will vote in the second round.
Looking at the current polls I think they already mirror quite a significant number of abstaining Melenchon voters which are partially set of by people who didn't vote in the first round but will vote in the second round.
Herb Alpert
Banned
A lot of people just don't want to vote macron. They see these polls and go "Well, seems it's safe, so i won't give my vote to him".
Don't underestimate how much macron is despised by so much people: some socialists who see him as a traitor, people from the left that see a neoliberal, from the right they see a guy with no moral or religion other than business cult.
He acts like he doesn't need to convince anyone.
Well he's also mostly the man who wants to "uberize" our economies as they said.
He wants to portray himself as someone who tries to find the right balance between protecting the worker , and giving more freedom to companies (including many things that might seem to be harmful for workers) but people doubt that, and when looking at what he did and where he came from it's a legitimate concern to think that he might be more in favor of one side that the other.
I also know we shouldn't take any promise at face value, the leftist electors knows it too well, after being burned rather badly 5 years ago, seeing the man which was the economy minister for two years and behind the crucial economics choice of the last 5 years doesn't instill any confidence either.
It's also to good thing to think about the way we will work decades from now on and I don't think his program is necessary wrong on many topics, but when it's coming from someone who clearly has a bias it's not reassuring at all.
About your two specific examples
- On a personal point of view I'm not too sure how really useful that will be and I say that as someone that resigned a few weeks ago, for the vast majority of workers resigning is not something you can "afford" as it's a lot of paperwork and a -40% salary cut if you remain jobless
- For independant entrepreneur it will be benificial in the short term, in the long term the purpose is still to increase dramatically the number of "independant" workers which are a way more flexible workforce for big companies rather than costful and impossible to fire internal employees
You can always look at problems like that with multiple angles, in the end it's a lot about the trust I think you can put in the man, many don't trust him, I don't either, him being once again coming from people who have been governing us for decades being the main reason.
I'm no economist, neither are you most likely, and even economists don't know much when looking at long term prospect so in the end it's still up to debate, I'm not amongst those who think the last 5 years were that "terrible", I also think from a macroeconomics point of view the situation will most likely improve if Macron ends up with a majority at the parliament, but a macroeconomics point of view is only what it is, on paper they will be more jobs and the country will have growth, but people will work more, will have less stability in their worklife, work for a longer time, and the median salary will probably not increase as much as the country growth because as usual the growth will mostly benefit a minority.
And I'm not talking about environmental problem, ethics problem in politics, immigration, and other stuff that will be vastly ignored until the next scandal.
It's the same with Le Pen to be honest. I wouldn't bet on Macron on who's despised the most of the two.
I agree it won't be easy for him to govern after the election though, and it was clear since quite some time everybody but Fillon would have a hard time to gather a majority at the Législatives.
Herb Alpert
Banned
I will vote macron. I just don't want lepen
But I don't know what I will do in June. I may stay at home.
The polls usually track also the probability of voting and they weight the results accordingly.
I think you are overestimating how many people actually "hate" Macron. Or how many people make this so personal.
You have 20% of people who voted Fillon, who's a rather more despicable person and that didn't matter that much.
Plus look at the details behind the votes in the first round and why each candidate was voted.
Funny enough, the personal aspect seem to matter more for the radical sides of the spectrum, that is the same people who claim to vote for principles but end up fascinated by one charismatic prophet. And that's not something that's unique to France. Of course it has to do with that fact that for selling a bundle that includes also some utopic thing you must be a damn good seller.
The left have lost the election already, or maybe you mean the "left" like the ps joke.
FN, for the next five years, will paint everyone who backs Macron as being part of the establishment. Think JLM is ensuring he, or whoever the Insoumise candidate is in 2022, can still be an outsider. If the Macron-era sucks, he won't be particularly associated.
There are other elections after that, unless no one cares if En Marche becomes the de facto left party.
There are legislative elections incoming. Plus saying not to vote MLP doesn't mean that JLM can't make active opposition for the next five years. The idea that only FN can benefit from Macron under-performing is ridiculous.
How would JLM benefit if MLP wins the presidency for example? That would mean FN making big gains on the same demographic that JLM counts on and guarantees his movement becoming irrelevant quite quickly.
Alx
Member
Le Pen is playing it real smart during that campaign. While Macron is discussing with the Whirlpool representatives at the "chambre du commerce", she does a surprise visit at the factory.
Exactly. Which is why I'm always sceptical about promises like "I'll reduce unemployment by X points" or "we'll have an economic growth of Y%".
I'm more looking at whether the practical propositions make sense, seem fair and are pushing things in the right direction or not.
Exactly. Which is why I'm always sceptical about promises like "I'll reduce unemployment by X points" or "we'll have an economic growth of Y%".
I'm more looking at whether the practical propositions make sense, seem fair and are pushing things in the right direction or not.
He won't, no one will.
He's going to make a new "Revue de la semaine" this week where I suppose he'll talk a bit about the abstention thing.
But you should not expect a "Vote for Macron" it's going to be "Do wathever you want as long as it's not lepen".
I absolutely agree with that. I know for sure I will never vote for him again, or for any of his supporters. Fuck them.
You can't summarize the fall of LO to that. There are many more excellent reasons to that.
I like how people justify their shitty attitude because others have shitty attitude too.
People are disappointed, give it time. I see many Insoumis around me, they debate, they discuss, they took a hard hit and for a lot of them (the younger ones) it was their first presidential election and they believe a bit too much they could do it.
The debate should not be about JLM, right now we should talk about how Macron is handling his 2nd round campaign, because so far Le Pen has scored more point than him, and that's a lot more problematic than someone no telling the others how to vote.
We are not about legislative until the end of this election even if some talk about it.
I think it would be a good fit for "en marche" to become "les démocrates" of france after "les républicains", and that don't mean left.
You need someone to tell you how to vote ?
Herb Alpert
Banned
Look at what's happening in Amiens right now about whirlpool.
Macron's handling of this campaign is dreadful. Absolutely pathetic...
Time to convince my friends to vote for this dumbass... Sigh. Don't count on me for the Législatives.
Macron's handling of this campaign is dreadful. Absolutely pathetic...
Time to convince my friends to vote for this dumbass... Sigh. Don't count on me for the Législatives.
I don't, but I do know that I don't want to support someone who puts neoliberalism and fascism on the same level.
It also tells me they don't really care about the rights of refugees and minorities. All of that is just going to further normalize the FN.
Yet that certainly mattered.
You can't present yourself as a left-wing force when you refuse to identify your enemy. I know it makes sense to les insoumis, but it makes none at all to everyone else. MLP is OK with racial discrimination and police brutality, how will you campaign in banlieues and towards non-whites if even Mélenchon won't take a stance ?
ha, because neoliberal care ?
most of those I know do, as a matter of fact.
Actually, yeah. And I say that as someone who cannot stand neoliberalism.
Golden_Pigeon
Banned
I am so comforted by my choice not having voted for Melenchon now that he is being a total megalomaniac not calling for voting against Le Pen.
However i'm really sad for the future of the country, another neoliberal technocrat for 5 years will be a disaster.
However i'm really sad for the future of the country, another neoliberal technocrat for 5 years will be a disaster.
That's borderline insulting. You guys wake up every five years or what?
Who's in the street every day facing the police? That's the left.
My own mother may well be "fiché S" because she helps migrants and organise cercles de silence among other things. She and her friends, they are the left.
Who's taken to court by Le Pen for calling her a fascist on a regular basis? You guessed it, Mélenchon.
Who's keeping Adama Traore's memory alive? The fucking left, again.
The left is fighting the FN everyday while you guys close your eyes when it's not election time. The enemy has been identified for years, we know who it is.
Obviously liberal media don't, since they spent the last weeks of the campaign trying to push the narrative that Le Pen & Melechon share the same agenda.
No one is saying that Macron is as bad as Le Pen, or if they are, I'm sorry, they are wrong, I've no hard time admitting that. This should not prevent anyone from poiting out that yes, Macron feed Le Pen.
I'll finish with two blog articles from Olivier Tonneau you should read (tw : french): One and two. That's the position shared by the leaders of the movement.
I know what the left does. But you guys are losing the battle and won't even fucking admit it.
Everyone remembers how the country got blocked with the El Khomri law. No one remembers protests against the state of emergency, for migrants, for the banlieues. Nuit debout couldn't leave the cities because it kept the image of young white students more angry against capitalism than against actual injustice.
It's unfair ? Yeah, that's tough. But JLM had something to say here, he didn't, and that will stay.
Golden_Pigeon
Banned
The left is not reduced by "les insoumis" and Mélenchon. The rhetoric Mélenchon have about immigration and islam is closer to Valls than Hamon. Also his stance about colonialism and reintroducing the french flag is leftist meeting. It's clearly some "clin d'oeil" to the electorate of FN. The economics left without the cultural side of it.
Also, "les insoumis" are not at all present in the street against police violence. Maybe some of them are, but it's clearly not a group that you see on those demonstration. Except when there is some media of course.
You know what will stay?
Macron at the Chambre du Commerce leaving the factory of Whirlpool for Marine Le Pen.
The guy is sabotaging his own campaign because he has absolutely no respect for the workers, and you'll find a way to complain about JLM.
I'll vote may 7th, but he doesn't deserve it.
Oh no, I include everyone, from Poutou to Mélenchon, don't worry.
The 470.000 people who supported "La France Insoumise" online are voting until next week (2/5) in order to say what they'll do (abstaining/white vote/Macron) but these won't be instructions, only making their choice public as a collective force.
2002's législatives were a landslide for the UMP and that's what mattered the most.
That's clearly one of the main reasons why Mélenchon didn't give instructions.
Most of his voters (70%) agree by the way (20% were in favor of his personnal choice/instruction, 10% don't have an opinion)
There's no direct causal relationship here.
I know a bit about how Gérard Collomb (mayor of Lyon, one of the closest allies to Macron, he'll likely be Prime Minister or something like that) handled refugees, minorities and social issues (homeless..) and they clearly don't care compared to economic competivity of the territory and big investments (classic neoliberalism applied to a local scale)
Not. At. All. Please read what Amnesty International said on the topic (spoiler : they say it goes in the right way) https://www.amnesty.fr/refugies-et-migrants/actualites/jean-luc-melenchon-et-les-refugies
How do you know people that voted/supported FI don't go in the street ? You don't see flags ? But if you saw I'm sure you'd say "Oh these guys are trying to turn us into Mélenchonistes ! Récupération!"
The smear campaign continues after the official one.
Funny times when doing selfies on a parking lot pays more than working with the unions.
I agree that it's bad PR though. But you're deflecting.
the opposition was still under shock. As of now les républicains are working to get back on their feet. The left is still not sure about what they're supposed to do.
It wasn't the opposition but the majority at the time (1997-2002), but yeah. Although you said "Chirac got elected with 80% in 2002 but that didn't prevent him from losing every election after that" and that wasn't true since the législatives were the next election, and since then the législatives were landslides for the party that won the presidency.
Will it be the same with this year's great shake-up ? We really can't say.
Unions are unpopular while making selfies is popular.
Deflecting what? I should not even be justifying anything.
Every choice for the second round that is not voting for Marine Le Pen is respectable. I'll vote Macron, I hate it, but that's my choice and that's the lesser of two evils.
I don't care for any of your arguments, the fucking "Front Republicain" or the shameless attempt to compare the leftist movement to the far right.
At the same time, Macron is doing stupid thing after stupid thing. La Rotonde, stupid. The speech, terrible. Amiens right know, worst PR you could imagine. And there's 11 days left and a debate.
You want him to win, you'll have to find something else than acting like a crybaby because someone who FUCKING said since the beginning he would not give voting instructions does not.
Golden_Pigeon
Banned
Because they do show up flag when there is some cameras. The rest of the time, you have less than one hundred people, and very few people who are close to Melenchon. More likely to be autonomous/antifa. It's why it's kind of ridiculous to take credit for those struggles.
Please cut with the victimization, Mélenchon supported the demonstration of the police syndicate against "hate against Police". I would have love to be able to vote for him if he was not trying so hard not getting my vote. So i am not on a "smear campaign".
DiipuSurotu
Banned
.
Empyrean Heaven
Member
Sorry Marine, the whole sexy angle doesn't work well with you.
Herb Alpert
Banned
Ho fuck. She tries to show skin.
It's not me you'll have to persuade.
I think voting against MLP is human decency, but that's only me - yes I'm being judgemental. But if you want the "real left" to become something after the election, you better start questioning what didn't work. I already know some who are blaming the media, which is a good way to keep losing.
I keep hearing that Macron being elected will bring Le Pen in 2022 because neoliberalism or some shit. Yeah well, it's the left who's supposed to bring together all the losers of globalization, according to what they've been saying for decades. Yet here we are.
So are you prepared to the fact than around half of the potential french electors don't have human decency?
Between the abstention, white votes, and Le Pen votes it should end up around there, probably slightly above even.
Hyperbole and all that, I don't think it will help your debate with Sinsem either.
From a detroyed left to 19.58% in the first round, I'm not that negative.
There are lessons to be learned yes, but liberals may need to take a good look at themselves too.
When you normalize the FN and offer it more TV time than the left (I swear, I've never seen someone more on television than Phillipot these past months) it's bound to happen.
Overall, there were problems, and a lot of work needs to be done, but when you win Marseille, Lille, the all 93, that's good news, that means you beat the FN somewhere and it's a good start.
As I said, perhaps unclearly, it's my opinion and not an argument. He said he'll vote, which is fine by me, but my point is that I think leftists who refuse to make a choice here will pay sooner or later. And JLM's stance will gain him sympathy from some of his voters but disappoint others, and anger everyone else. Voters have no sympathy for those who can't decide.
Herb Alpert
Banned
Macron is being booed at whirlpool factory. They are yelling "marine présidente" and he can't even speak.
Attali just qualified whirlpool layoffs as anecdotal.
This is the worst campaign i've seen for a round 2. If it goes on like this, macron can shit the bed, as comfortable as it was.
Attali just qualified whirlpool layoffs as anecdotal.
This is the worst campaign i've seen for a round 2. If it goes on like this, macron can shit the bed, as comfortable as it was.
Macron needs to drop Attali asap. How can you be so stupid and out of touch?
How can he drop him? Attali isn't part of Macron's election team.
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