Get rid of Kinect completely and then we'll talk.
I'll keep believing that Microsoft is losing more sales due to Kinect than they are gaining because of it. #1. for the core market seems to be because they are Mandating it to be used with the system, and #1. for the casual market will be due to a higher price because of Kinect.
The new Kinect has not proven that the XBO is a better game console, and people buy game consoles to #1 PLAY GAMES. It doesn't make sense to limit the sales of your game console for a peripheral to get adopted, especially when you main competitor is selling more pre-orders, and they are not including a camera motion controlled device. So that market for developers to latch onto with Kinect is already a segregated market. Most devs will look towards the better selling PS4 instead.