Phil Spencer: XGS titles for the “next couple of years” will be cross-gen
- Thread starter kretos
- Start date
tryDEATH
Member
I love when people drive this sale narrative while completely ignoring the install base of when a game was released, you automatically know they didn't think their comment through. Halo 5 vs Spider-man is always the most hilarious one.
Ass of Can Whooping
Member
I'm sorry to tell you but games sales do not scale linearly with the install base
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tryDEATH
Member
No, but it does tell you how large your customer base is and based on that you can see your conversion rate.The larger the base the more units you're expected to sell as you have more people to sell the game to.
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
Launch games, historically, do not sell particularly well.
Ass of Can Whooping
Member
The strength of your IP is what matters. Install base is quite frankly irrelevant for the most part
Hence why Halo 5s numbers are abysmal compared to Halo 3s. Spiderman could have had the same install base and would have still outsold Halo 5
tryDEATH
Member
Yup, because the install base simply isn't there.
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
Right. So Spider Man Morales probably won't sell particularly well either right? Because it's a launch game.
Psykodad
Banned
This is true, but look at how PS4 fared with the same principle Sony continuing now.
Didn't stop PS4 from becoming the second-best selling console of all time.
PS5 is shaping up to be just as successfull, especially with MS now dropping the ball yet again, only decreasing Xbox popularity even further.
Why do people always try their best to be "objective" when the picture is quite clear?
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tryDEATH
Member
LOL Halo 5 sold over 5 Million units in its first 3 months with an install base of less that 10 Million at the time, that conversion rate is unreal. Spider-man was able to garner the interest of 11%+ of the whole Playstation install base, the other Sony exclusive were even less popular with the Playstation gamers most of them getting an attachment rate of 5% to 6%. But don't let raw numbers get in the way of your biased critical thinking.
AV
We ain't outta here in ten minutes, we won't need no rocket to fly through space
Someone else already pointed it out, I'm just reposting this; Forza, State of Decay 3, Everwild and Avowed all specifically said XSX/PC, meaning that Microsoft at this time isn't confident enough to say that they'll be out within the next two years. That's not a good sign at all considering three of those four games were the showpieces directly after Halo.
It's not going to "sell" anywhere even remotely close, because the vast majority of people will just play it on Game Pass for a few dollars. As incredible as Game Pass is it's made measuring this sort of stuff practically impossible.
It's not going to "sell" anywhere even remotely close, because the vast majority of people will just play it on Game Pass for a few dollars. As incredible as Game Pass is it's made measuring this sort of stuff practically impossible.
Ass of Can Whooping
Member
It doesn't matter if its a launch game. What matters is if its a strong IP and if its well received.
Killzone and Knack didn't sell because they were shit. Not because they were launch games. On the contrary the fact that they were launch games helped sell more copies than they would have had they not been launch games
Ass of Can Whooping
Member
Again with the attachment rate nonsense.
Zelda had an attachment rate of 100% at launch with the Switch. Do you want to guess what that is now?
tryDEATH
Member
It certainly won't match the raw numbers of the first game, but at a cheaper price point it will still have a good attachment rate as they don't really have anything else big lined up as far as we know, that might change when Sony reveals their launch line up.
System availability will play a huge role for Sony's games, which is why I think they went with the DLC/Expansion route to satisfy the core transition gamers and wait for the install base to grow to start releasing their big hitters like HZD and GoW in 2022. Xbox doesn't have to worry about the install base so they can go all in at the start of the generation.
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
MS is at around 10 million GamePass subscribers right?
Let's say they can bump that number to 20 million by the end of this year. (Big if).
That still leaves a massive proportion of XBox One and PC gamers who need to buy the game in order to play it.
GamePass will eat into the sales for sure, but not enough for Morales to get anywhere close.
joe_zazen
Member
it will depend 100% on quality and addictiveness. It doesn't look special at all right now.
Remember, we are i the age of Destiny, Fortnite and CoD. IMO, MS knows this and that is why Halo does not have a 500 000 000 USD budget. It is just a gamepass game for them; a microtransaction, game-as-service, keep sub numbers up game, agame built to run on a 1.2 TF jaguar machine. Sorry.
tryDEATH
Member
Just stop spinning you want to go around and claim attachment rate as nonsense, but parade Spider-man's raw 13Mil number in an eco-system of 100Mil gamers as some sort of achievement. The later in the generation you release a game the more units your expected to sell that isn't rocket science so raw numbers don't reflect the actual popularity but the percentage/attachment rate do.
AV
We ain't outta here in ten minutes, we won't need no rocket to fly through space
You're forgetting one key detail; if you look at the, let's say 10 most played Xbox One games, only one was available when Halo 5 came out, and that was GTA V, a previous-gen port. Roblox was a month later and Siege/Ark came 2 months later. It's much easier to get a high attach rate when there's nothing much else to play, hence why BotW actually had an attach rate of over 100% at the Switch launch, as someone else said.
You're making an enormous assumption on the number of people that actually want to play the game. Just because people have access to these platforms doesn't mean they want to play Halo. Unless you can find something that says otherwise, it's unlikely Halo 5 even sold as much as Spider-Man, let alone more than. 5m in 3 months is great, but the rate at which that number grows reduces rapidly, especially considering the first 3 months of Halo 5 were the holiday season.
Infinite isn't suddenly going to appeal to a giant new userbase of people that are willing to drop $60 on it when they can get it on Game Pass.
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Ass of Can Whooping
Member
Its not spinning
As your install base grows, you attatchment rate stumbles. We saw this with Zelda, we see this with launch games. It's a fact. If the PS4 had a smaller install base, the only number that would actually change would be the attachment rate which would be higher. Talking about PS4s install base is just a piss poor excuse so you can justify xbox games selling like trash. But here's the thing. Take the PS4 out of the equation and the games still sell like trash.
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Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
Ass of Can Whooping
Member
Your argument falls apart when you look at Halo 3 sales and the 360s install base back in 2007
tryDEATH
Member
Yes, the attachment rate decreases, but it still the most accurate representation of the popularity of a game in your whole eco-system and it is a much better indicator than throwing around a raw number that makes up 10%+ of the install base.
Also Zelda's attachment rate is still a mind blowing 23%+- and probably won't ever drop below 20% in Switches generation. That right there is a true console seller.
Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
You were talking about the new Spiderman?
I didn't think so because it would be silly to gloat about a game selling better to 150 million potential consumers than one that at most will have 10 or 12 million.
AV
We ain't outta here in ten minutes, we won't need no rocket to fly through space
Right, and this one probably won't "outsell" Spider-Man two-to-one, because it's on Game Pass day one and not many people will buy it for $60. With Spider-Man, they won't have a choice. That's the key. If you're counting every person that plays Infinite with their $1 Game Pass trial then yeah, that number's probably going to be enormous, sure. But that's not a sale of a game, you don't own it like you do if you buy Spider-Man outright.
Ass of Can Whooping
Member
Killzone Shadowfall had a higher attatchment rate than spiderman
Once again. It means fuck all
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
Can you explain?
Ass of Can Whooping
Member
Halo 3 didn't need a 90+ million install base to do spiderman level numbers
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
Who's "gloating"?
I'm just stating things I believe will come true. Watch, you try, and I'll assume you're doing so in good faith and not "gloating".
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
I agree.
We'll see.
As I said, GamePass will eat into Halos sales for sure. But if there's only 20 million GamePass subscribers that still leaves a crap ton of potential customers on PC and XBoxOne. Customers Spider Man doesn't have access to.
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Ass of Can Whooping
Member
Yes it was much bigger. And spiderman sold more because it was the stronger IP. Install base wouldn't have changed that.
tryDEATH
Member
It did initially, but it doesn't now. Now based on the 120Mil units of PS4 sold it is more accurately portrayed in popularity and it shows a very lack luster attachment rate for KZSF. Halo 5 even with the last know number that we know of 5Mil with in the first 3 months for much of the generation had an attachment rate of 25%+- and slowly declined to around 10%+ similarly to Spider-man, which statistically tells you both were similarly popular in their eco-system and not that Spider-Man blew Halo out of the water as so many people love to pretend when they throw that raw 13Mil number around.
Ass of Can Whooping
Member
So again what's your excuse when Halo 3 did spiderman levels at a roughly similar install base as the xbox one?
We're going to see i'm right anyway when infinite doesn't manage to match Spidermans 3.3 million launch sales
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
What were both consoles install base at the time of both games release?
I was under the impression the XBox 360 never even made it to 90 million. Did Halo 3 come out at the very end of the 360s life? No.
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Ass of Can Whooping
Member
The 360 was at < 15 million when Halo 3 released
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AV
We ain't outta here in ten minutes, we won't need no rocket to fly through space
It's not close to 20 million, which you know, but if there's somewhere between 7-15m people that want to play Halo as evidenced by previous sales, then most of those will more than likely be GP players. Just because X amount of people own a capable device doesn't mean they're going to buy the game. Something like 90% of PS4 owners didn't get Spider-Man, "potential customers" means very, very little. Technically every single person with a PC is a potential customer for every PC game, but naturally the overwhelming majority of PC owners won't be interested in specific games.
Game Pass isn't going to "eat into" Halo's sales, it's going to the vast majority of them. It's exactly what Microsoft intend. They're passed the point of caring about software units sold, they want the sub money.
Also, we won't "see", that's the problem. MS aren't gonna release those numbers. It's no use saying "1 million people subscribed to Game Pass for the Infinite launch!" when however many of those people are paying anywhere from 1-15 dollars and may only stick around for the month. Again, as amazing as Game Pass is, it's horrible for trying to gauge success.
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tryDEATH
Member
Halo 3 was the console God, there are no excuses those numbers are untouchable. Certain games just sell like hot cakes, my whole point was that Halo 5 didn't sell bad at all like people like to pretend it did especially when comparing it to Spider-man and using the raw number to beat it over its head. It was always disingenuously framed as one game was being sold to around 15Mil gamers and the other to around 90Mil gamers.
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Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
"I believe once the sun sets the moon rises".
This and what you said is the same. So yeah its rather silly.
Ass of Can Whooping
Member
I never said Halo 5s number were bad. It's numbers were bad for a halo game. Nevermind Halo 3. It couldn't beat Halo 2, 3 or Reach. Halo 5 could have had an install base of 90 million, and i'm sorry to tell you, but it wouldn't have changed a thing.
Install base is a useless metric to understand a games sales.
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KonstructReborn
Member
Sony - 'Clear Generational Transitions'
MS - 'Buy an XSX now so you can play XSX built games by 2025. Also we don't know what we are doing anymore so have 100 games at launch for only 10 bucks'
MS - 'Buy an XSX now so you can play XSX built games by 2025. Also we don't know what we are doing anymore so have 100 games at launch for only 10 bucks'
Entroyp
Member
oh snap
Shmunter
Member
Sony - now that we have seen the MS Xbox Series X gameplay, we've decided to raise our PS5 preorder price by $100 for both Disc and Digital
Vawn
Banned
Captain Hero
The Spoiler Soldier
tryDEATH
Member
My original comment was about the skewed perception between Halo 5's numbers and Spider-Man's number, that people constantly big up and making an uneducated and baseless claim like Halo not being able to sell more units in a 90Mil install base is nothing more than laughable.
I also can't believe you just said a larger install base is a useless metric when it come to game sale, that has got to be one of the more ridiculous takes on here. Please keep those sort of delusionary comments to the trolling threads. You're clearly being willfully ignorant about this topic.
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Ass of Can Whooping
Member
I'm going to leave it until we see the sales. Be prepared to maybe see a 10 million sales milestone, because that 150+ million or whatever install base won't help it reach spidermans life time sales.
What? You're going to need to refresh my memory here
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Freeman
Banned
It will sell fine and then they'll be able to bundle it for a long time if they want.
JTCx
Member
I need a printed vinyl of this quote and stick it on my car. LMAO
Dodkrake
Banned
It certainly made Halo look like minecraft, so anything is possible.
This aged like wine.
tryDEATH
Member
H:I won't have a 150Mil install base, closer to 60Mil, nor will it sell 10Mil units in my opinion as it will be a GamePass game so we won't ever know its actual sales as you're not forced to buy to play it. But I can tell you it will most likely reach a player number of around 20Mil between Xbox One and Xbox Series in its first few months, which would account for about 30%+- of its eco-system. The PC crowd I am not sure and I wouldn't count those sales as a fair sale since it would be out side of the console eco-system.
As for the second paragraph I apologize I confused you for Hyperbertha.
