Yeah, but I've said this: where are they going to magically round up these moderate Conservatives?
This is the tricky question. How many socially liberal, economically conservative Democratic voters are there, really? And how quickly can the GOP purge itself of the "party of hates all minorities" label? It seems clear that the realignment is going to move leftwards in terms of social values, but I think that it's going to necessitate an economic shift as well. After all, after 2014, the GOP is going to have to come to terms with the existence of Obamacare if they want to win. That means accepting a certain level of social support, something else they've been spending a lot of time making sure nobody will believe them on recently.
I dunno, I expect the GOP to start trying to reinvent itself immediately -- and we'll probably see Rubio beat out Ryan in 2016 -- but I don't think they'll actually be successful for a while, until the Democrats move further to the left. Which sounds good to me.
I do wonder about this third party business. I would think it would take longer, but the buildup and bubble surrounding conservatives has reached a breaking point now. I think if anything was ever going to push them over the edge of sanity it would be Obama's re-election. If Limbaugh's already building up the narrative that the establishment got who they want and he's going to lose despite the base wanting something else I do wonder if that sort of thinking is more widespread or will become more widespread.
It's kind of odd thinking about how that would turn out. On one hand you'd think the people that would go crazy and want out would be the tea party, but then again that was pretty much backed by big money and the establishment, so it's really hard to imagine it bucking establishment republicanism. At the same time I could see Libertarianism being a decent 3rd party and breaking off to get support, but then again the people that are really going to be distraught and angry after an Obama win aren't the pure libertarians. They're the religious right, and I don't think they'd go for pure libertarianism, but who knows.
They'll both be gone forever. The Libertarians are almost gone already -- they have like four third parties to choose from. The GOP will have to cut the religious right off too, and they'll take off for the American Freedom Party or whatever they're called now. They were a fringe force before the 80s and they'll go back to being a fringe force. That leaves the core elements of the GOP -- a party of supporting business, repressing labor, lowering taxes, and limiting the expansion of social programs where possible. In other words, a conservative party.
a little as well.