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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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A

Aaron

Member
Opiate said:
The big reason the Libertarian party cannot replace the Republican part is that they have minimal disagreement with Democrats on social issues.
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I thought it was because of the crazy. There are some crazy Republicans, but acting like they run the party is an exaggeration at best. At least they operate in terms of reality, and base their lies on it. Libertarians don't lie about what they believe, and that's what makes them scary.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Libertarianism can't pick up steam, regardless, because most adults won't ever believe in it.

People overwhelmingly want the government involved in stuff. Even if they think they don't, they do.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
I don't disagree here, but that's the battle they should have tried to win. Win that and this election wouldn't even be a contest right now.
Click to expand...

They did try. The fact is, the folks against it are that way for mostly partisan reasons. If a Republican prez had put this forward, GOP voters would love it and more on the left would be complaining it doesn't go far enough and gives too much to the insurance industry
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Cloudy said:
They did try. The fact is, the folks against it are that way for mostly partisan reasons. If a Republican prez had put this forward, GOP voters would love it and more on the left would be complaining it doesn't go far enough and gives too much to the insurance industry
Click to expand...

only like 35-40% of the country is partisan to the right. Obama should be at 55-60% on this.
 
P

Puddles

Banned
pigeon said:
This morning I was checking Intrade and noticed there were over two thousand shares of "Obama wins" available at $5.90 apiece (pays $10 each if he wins). I seriously considered borrowing twelve thousand dollars....

I figured that Intrade was still pricing in uncertainty and that, say, after the first debate or so, it'd have to pop up, but Bernstein thinks that Intrade is just mostly Republican, in which case Obama shares will probably be trading at a significant discount right up into November. (Although I note all that slack in the market is gone now and Obama's up to 60%, so maybe they're finally bowing to the inevitable.) That would be a hell of a bet.
Click to expand...

I might put $3000-4000 on an Obama victory once I get some money next week. I really don't see Obama losing at all.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Opiate said:
I disagree. I think Gaborn is right; I think people like most of the provisions, but hate the mandate so much that they're willing to scrap the entire bill to get rid of it.
Click to expand...

I disagree, and the polling supports this. Majorities want the bill kept, or modified. Those wanting an outright repeal are in the minority.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Just saw the clip of Rush talking about the end of the republican party, and the country crashing in 18 months
http://www.mediaite.com/online/rush...f-republican-party-if-obama-wins-re-election/

Remember October 08 when it was clear Obama would win, and how insane those Palin rallies started getting? I can sense that stuff bubbling up amongst the desperation and usual semi-incitement that goes on; folks have been living in a fantasy world where Obama had 0% chance of winning, now reality is setting in (note: I am not saying Obama will win, just that he is clearly ahead). Gotta say, while the general story of Obama going to that pizza shot unannounced* was cool, I'd prefer he keep away from that "random stops in bars/restaurants/etc" shit given the climate of things.

*obviously nothing is truly unannounced with respect to a president, and the secret service shut down the street and checked the store. Still...eh. Plus after initial stories suggesting the owner got permission to pick up Obama, I just watched him tell Wolf Blitzer he didn't get permission, he just did it lol. Come on...
 
T

TheHeretic

Banned
Puddles said:
I might put $3000-4000 on an Obama victory once I get some money next week. I really don't see Obama losing at all.
Click to expand...

The electoral college means you are betting that some catastrophic event won't happen to the Obama presidency, and even then it would be close. Easy money I think, I don't understand why the odds are as even as they are.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Sg1po.jpg


Ad in the NY Post.
 
Z

Zabka

Member
So the affair with Frank Marshall Davis was covered up by saying she had a child with a married man? Makes perfect sense.
 
F

Farmboy

Member
Yeah, I recommend Intrade. It has an unmistakable Republican lean - I don't know if it's just more popular with overly hopeful GOPers, if some rich GOPers are pumping money in there to manipulate the market (that would only cost a fraction of airing a campaign ad) or if people are just cautious and still clinging to the CW that Obama can't win because of the economy. But if you compare the market's percentages to Nate Silver's, there's a lot of room for money making.

Of course, it's tightening now - before the conventions some shares were seriously out of whack and during the primaries it was even worse (I made a killing on Romney-to-be-the-nominee as the market only gave him a 10% chance at one point). but there's still plenty of opportunities. Here's a couple of my favorites, if you're willing to take a little risk:

Democratic nominee to win 300 or more Electoral College votes in 2012 Presidential Election - $5.30 at its cheapest now (I bought these at $3.75 on average, I think mostly after the Ryan pick, but 53% is still low).

Democratic nominee to win 330 or more Electoral College votes in 2012 Presidential Election. This seems pretty likely at this point, and there's still 30 shares to be bought at $3.20, or 32%.

Democratic President + Democratic Senate + Democratic House of Rep. after 2012 elections. This is certainly a long shot, as the CW still seems to be that the Dems have little chance of flipping back the house. However, there's 49 shares available for $0.65 per share and the chance has got to be higher than 6.5%, esp. with the senate and presidency almost in the bag.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
I'd prefer he keep away from that "random stops in bars/restaurants/etc" shit given the climate of things.
Click to expand...

According to Politico the campaign is going to send Obama even more to bars and the like through election day. They feel it helps them really put a gap on the personality factor with him and Romney.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Captain Pants said:
I'm so thrilled to see how things are shaping up in Florida. I've been 99% sure of an Obama re-election for a while now, but watching Florida go from light pink to an increasing dark shade of blue on 538 has been really comforting.
Click to expand...

apFvr.jpg


Of all the states and their Govs/legislatures pulling voter ID bullshit, this man is the worst offender. Prepare for the worst.


Aaron Strife said:
Scarborough's such a damn hack. He was a GOP congressman for heaven's sake, why would he be considered a valuable source of information?


Oh man, Santorum getting nominated in 2016 would be great. Hillary would kick his ass so hard they'd have to start making up states just to give him any chance. And then he'd lose those too.

"Polling's tight in the critical battleground state of North Tacoma, where former president Barack Obama has yet to cast his vote."

Empty%20Chair.jpg
Click to expand...
I said this a lot about Santorum during the primary season: I don't think anyone realizes how big of a pussy/whiner this guy is. He's also a shitstain despite his supposed moral high ground. He used to be a pro-choice GOPer and then he totally let his ego get the best of him. If he ran for President and actually won the primary next time I'd be elated; he wouldn't even carry his home state of PA, and I would be delighted to contribute to denying him advancement in his political career once more just as I did in 2006.

You think Mitt's bad? If only Santorum got the nom this year. Obama wouldn't even have to try.
 
F

Frank the Great

Banned
Farmboy said:
Yeah, I recommend Intrade. It has an unmistakable Republican lean - I don't know if it's just more popular with overly hopeful GOPers, if some rich GOPers are pumping money in there to manipulate the market (that would only cost a fraction of airing a campaign ad) or if people are just cautious and still clinging to the CW that Obama can't win because of the economy. But if you compare the market's percentages to Nate Silver's, there's a lot of room for money making.

Of course, it's tightening now - before the conventions some shares were seriously out of whack and during the primaries it was even worse (I made a killing on Romney-to-be-the-nominee as the market only gave him a 10% chance at one point). but there's still plenty of opportunities. Here's a couple of my favorites, if you're willing to take a little risk:

Democratic nominee to win 300 or more Electoral College votes in 2012 Presidential Election - $5.30 at its cheapest now (I bought these at $3.75 on average, I think mostly after the Ryan pick, but 53% is still low).

Democratic nominee to win 330 or more Electoral College votes in 2012 Presidential Election. This seems pretty likely at this point, and there's still 30 shares to be bought at $3.20, or 32%.

Democratic President + Democratic Senate + Democratic House of Rep. after 2012 elections. This is certainly a long shot, as the CW still seems to be that the Dems have little chance of flipping back the house. However, there's 49 shares available for $0.65 per share and the chance has got to be higher than 6.5%, esp. with the senate and presidency almost in the bag.
Click to expand...

i'm tempted but i am really confused as to whether it will work with US bank accounts. i'd rather not give my banking information to a site unless i know it works. have you tried it and it works?
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
RustyNails said:
So...ABC News/Wash Post poll shows Obama 48% Romney 47%

Funny thing is that the polling period is in the same time as reuters/ipsos and the CNN ORC poll
Click to expand...

That's a three point bounce for Obama from their last, which had Romney leading by 2; about half the convention bounce other pollsters saw. From their baseline, it's within the noise of the rest of the polls, I think. When the low end of the range is Obama +1, you know things are bad for Romney. (My understanding is this will actually boost Silver's model, as this poll will replace the Post's last in their forecasts.)

I'm expecting the convention bounce to be washed through by the end of next week; I'm really interested to see if we return to where things were before the conventions or if Obama gets any kind of longer term boost. I'm guessing things settle a point or two higher for Obama over all.
 
M

markatisu

Member
RustyNails said:
So...ABC News/Wash Post poll shows Obama 48% Romney 47%

Funny thing is that the polling period is in the same time as reuters/ipsos and the CNN ORC poll
Click to expand...

Doesn't ABC lean to the right though? It must suck to be Romney if thats the case

I think when all is said and done in a week Obama will be up 1 or 2, which means Romney will have one last set of chances to change things with the debates because he flushed his convention down the shitter
 
R

RustyNails

Member
GhaleonEB said:
That's a three point bounce for Obama from their last, which had Romney leading by 2; about half the convention bounce other pollsters saw. From their baseline, it's within the noise of the rest of the polls, I think. When the low end of the range is Obama +1, you know things are bad for Romney. (My understanding is this will actually boost Silver's model, as this poll will replace the Post's last in their forecasts.)

I'm expecting the convention bounce to be washed through by the end of next week; I'm really interested to see if we return to where things were before the conventions or if Obama gets any kind of longer term boost. I'm guessing things settle a point or two higher for Obama over all.
Click to expand...

Another thing to note is that Obama 48% Romney 47% is from LV. But among RV, it's Obama 50% and Romney 44%. Correct number is probably in between + the bump from their previous poll you talked about.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
That's a three point bounce for Obama from their last, which had Romney leading by 2; about half the convention bounce other pollsters saw. From their baseline, it's within the noise of the rest of the polls, I think. When the low end of the range is Obama +1, you know things are bad for Romney. (My understanding is this will actually boost Silver's model, as this poll will replace the Post's last in their forecasts.)

I'm expecting the convention bounce to be washed through by the end of next week; I'm really interested to see if we return to where things were before the conventions or if Obama gets any kind of longer term boost. I'm guessing things settle a point or two higher for Obama over all.
Click to expand...

Theoretically (according to Nate's model) we should expect Obama to drop back down by four points or so -- a little less if you think Romney got a bounce, but the evidence is slim. So 538 is ostensibly pricing the fall in already, and if he loses much more than that he'll start reverting to just ordinary victory instead of enormous victory.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
pigeon said:
Theoretically (according to Nate's model) we should expect Obama to drop back down by four points or so -- a little less if you think Romney got a bounce, but the evidence is slim. So 538 is ostensibly pricing the fall in already, and if he loses much more than that he'll start reverting to just ordinary victory instead of enormous victory.
Click to expand...

yeah, he's already dropping down a few points.
 
H

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
Chichikov said:
I'm not denying climate change or trying to downplay its seriousness, but it does not factor greatly into the planet's overall capacity to generate food.
Click to expand...
Which has been in overdrive ever since the invention of the Haber process, so our ability to keep it in overcapacity is dependent on our ability to manufacture nitrogen compounds like ammonia and acquire phosphorous.

Unfortunately, while elemental nitrogen is abundant, peak phosphate is a thing.
 
P

Puddles

Banned
Intrade's requirement that you upload a utilities bills to prove your address is going to kill my dreams. The utilities where I live aren't under my name. Fuck Ireland's anti-money laundering law.

Obama's share price actually dropped a bit today too.

I am seeing a whole lot of "Don't believe the biased liberal MSM polls!" comments these days. I haven't seen this much denial since the time I visited Egypt.
 
A

Averon

Member
Puddles said:
Intrade's requirement that you upload a utilities bills to prove your address is going to kill my dreams. The utilities where I live aren't under my name. Fuck Ireland's anti-money laundering law.

Obama's share price actually dropped a bit today too.

I am seeing a whole lot of "Don't believe the biased liberal MSM polls!" comments these days. I haven't seen this much denial since the time I visited Egypt.
Click to expand...

Maybe they (conservatives) started the 5 stages of grief?
 
L

LilZippa

Member
I saw an ad last night for trouble with the curve and there was a quick scene of clint kicking an empty chair over in a house.
I just thought of all the craziness of the RNC in that moment and wished someone with video skills would use it in a funny way.
Maybe change it to trouble with empty chairs.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
markatisu said:
And that is how you know a campaign is in freefall
Click to expand...

Their base seems to be accepting the fact that this campaign is on its way down and I'm shocked the campaign is doing absolutely nothing to stop it. After getting beaten up by their base, their opponents, and the media for being coy about what their intentions are and the specifics of their policies, they continue to throw stuff at the wall and attempt to make the buzz story of the week a Presidential issue. What a trainwreck.


LilZippa said:
I saw an ad last night for trouble with the curve and there was a quick scene of clint kicking an empty chair over in a house.
I just thought of all the craziness of the RNC in that moment and wished someone with video skills would use it in a funny way.
Maybe change it to trouble with empty chairs.
Click to expand...

BREAKING: Eastwood assaults President Obama
 
T

TacticalFox88

Banned
On the eve of the 11th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, former Vice President Dick Cheney accused President Obama of taking “sole credit” for the killing of Osama bin Laden and ignoring his presidential daily intelligence briefings. “If President Obama were participating in his intelligence briefings on a regular basis then perhaps he would understand why people are so offended at his efforts to take sole credit for the killing of Osama bin Laden,” Cheney told the Daily Caller on Monday night, quoting a report by former Bush administration official Marc Thiessen that “charged that Obama had attended fewer than half of the presidential daily briefs since taking office.”

But by parroting the claims of Birther-led “Swift Boater” groups, who argue that Obama has overstated his role in the bin Laden raid, Cheney ignores Obama’s repeated efforts to credit the intelligence community and the Bush administration for playing a part in the successful mission to kill the perpetrator of the 9/11 attacks. As Obama explained earlier this year:

[L]ast year, when we delivered justice to Osama bin Laden, I made it clear that our success was due to many people in many organizations working together over many years — across two administrations. That’s why my first call once American forces were safely out of harm’s way was to President Bush. Because protecting our country is neither the work of one person, nor the task of one period of time, it’s an ongoing obligation that we all share.

Obama also continues to receive intelligence information on a daily basis, even if he prefers to read the analyses himself rather than have it read told to him. As National Security Council spokesperson Tommy Vietor told Politico, Obama “receives and reads his [Presidential Daily Brief] every day, and most days when he’s at the White House receives a briefing in person. When necessary he probes the arguments, requests more information or seeks alternate analysis. Sometimes that’s via a written assessment and other times it’s in person…Marc basically wrote a story culled from our public schedule that shows how Marc’s old boss, President Bush, structured his day differently than President Obama.”
Click to expand...

These fuckers are so BITTER that Bin Laden wasn't taken out under a GOP administration.
 
C

CharlieDigital

Banned
Pretty amazing:

120910110833-chart-average-wealth-story-top.jpg


http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/11/news/economy/wealth-net-worth/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

Overall, the widening of the wealth gap in recent decades is due to two things, Shierholz said. The increase in income inequality means the wealthy have more to save and invest every year. Furthermore, the growth of Wall Street means that the rich, who are much more likely to own stocks, accumulated wealth even faster.

"The growth in wealth we did see got funneled to the top and it didn't spur faster growth in the middle," Shierholz said​
 
T

TacticalFox88

Banned
CharlieDigital said:
Pretty amazing:

120910110833-chart-average-wealth-story-top.jpg


http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/11/news/economy/wealth-net-worth/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

Overall, the widening of the wealth gap in recent decades is due to two things, Shierholz said. The increase in income inequality means the wealthy have more to save and invest every year. Furthermore, the growth of Wall Street means that the rich, who are much more likely to own stocks, accumulated wealth even faster.

"The growth in wealth we did see got funneled to the top and it didn't spur faster growth in the middle," Shierholz said​
Click to expand...

Ronald Reagan fucked this country up in so many ways it's deplorable.
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
CharlieDigital said:
Pretty amazing:


Overall, the widening of the wealth gap in recent decades is due to two things, Shierholz said. The increase in income inequality means the wealthy have more to save and invest every year. Furthermore, the growth of Wall Street means that the rich, who are much more likely to own stocks, accumulated wealth even faster.

"The growth in wealth we did see got funneled to the top and it didn't spur faster growth in the middle," Shierholz said​
Click to expand...

I never got how some people don't seem to understand this. Wealth accumulation does not follow a linear curve.
 
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