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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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K

KingGondo

Banned
So this guy at work today has an Infowars water bottle.

I didn't know what that was until I Googled it.

No wonder he made sure to bring it on 9/11. Pretty sure there's Kool-aid inside.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
House GOP Backs Off Spending Demands To Prevent Government Shutdown
“I’m deeply disappointed that the House and Senate were unable to complete Appropriations bills before the end of the fiscal year,” Rogers said in a statement. “Unfortunately, with the Senate’s inaction and election-year politics in play, our committee’s bills will not be negotiated before the end of the fiscal year, and therefore a temporary funding Band-Aid is necessary to prevent a government shutdown.”
Click to expand...
“This stop-gap measure will keep the government operating at a rate consistent with what we agreed to in last year’s bipartisan Budget Control Act,” said Appropriations Ranking Member Norm Dicks (D-WA) “As I’ve said all along, it was inevitable that we would return here and I regret that we spent the greater portion of this year considering appropriations bills that didn’t comply with that hard fought agreement.”
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http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...lution-government-shutdown.php?ref=fpnewsfeed
 
S

smokeandmirrors

Banned
*sigh* my father just pulled the "Dukakis was up 17!11!" on me last night.

and "Gallup is biased, Rasmussen is right"...

Really grasping at straws now.. This is going to be a rough couple of months....
 
B

Black Republican

Member
P

pigeon

Banned
I thought Nate Cohn had an interesting article about the weakness of money as a political asset this year.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107100/why-romneys-money-advantage-no-game-changer

GOP-aligned Super PACs aired uncontested advertisements in Michigan, eastern Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Mexico, but only Wisconsin moved into the toss-up column after Paul Ryan was selected as Romney’s running mate. The Republican National Convention could be reinterpreted as a three hour, nationally televised infomercial, and yet Romney didn’t receive any bounce at all. And while the science of ad spending is somewhat unscientific, there is probably a point of diminishing returns, even if the exact slope of the diminishing curve is uncertain. Team Romney has already been airing advertisements at or above saturation levels for months. The rule-of-thumb is that 1,000 gross-rating-points (GRP) of advertisements are enough to get your message out to voters, but Team Romney has routinely exceeded 2,500 GRP in critical markets in August. For comparison, Palm Beach received 3,200 GRP from Bush’s campaign in the final week of the 2000 presidential campaign....
Even if Romney can leverage his resources effectively, research by political scientists seems to confirm that a large advantage in ad spending only produces minor gains in a presidential election contest, probably because voters will learn quite a bit about the candidates independent from the airwaves. On average, Michael Franz and Travis Ridout found that 1,000 additional advertisements by Obama produced a statistically significant but minor (.5 percent) improvement in Obama's performance....
But the assessment of Romney's ad spending advantage is incomplete without considering Obama's ground game. Part of the reason why Romney has such a large advantage in ad spending is because the Obama campaign has decided to invest heavily in building and cultivating their ground operation. According to The Washington Post, Obama and Democratic field operatives outnumber their Republican counterparts by more than two-to-one and the most recent ABC/Washington Post poll found that a far greater share of voters has been contacted by the Obama campaign. Political Scientists have found that voter contact is one of the most effective forms of political persuasion, with experiments by Gerber and Green finding that voters turned out at an 8.7 percent higher rate than a control group.
Click to expand...
 
T

thefro

Member
Hitokage said:
Obama was born before his parents' marriage was even legal in many states. I don't even get how the "avoiding scandal" was supposed to work.
Click to expand...

I'm halfway curious on how this crazy conspiracy theory explains Mark Obama Ndesandjo. Is he another son of the Davis guy or Barack Sr.?

BM6Pa.jpg
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
cartoon_soldier said:
Yea, and Gallup has been known to be R-friendly too, but currently them doing RV while everybody else has switched to LV doesn't make sense.

According to 538 though, PPP has a worse Dem lean than Ras has a R lean.
Click to expand...

I thought Gallup was using 2010 numbers still.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
I wanted to suggest everyone read Joe Biden's remarks on the 9/11 anniversary today. I heard a snippet of it on the way to work and can't listen to the full remarks until tonight, but the transcript is here.

Josh Marshall's preamble provides the added context of what Biden has lived through. That context combined with the eloquence of the speech had me openly weeping at lunch just now, thinking of my own family. It's fairly short but I found it very powerful.
Aaron Strife said:
PPP's national poll for DailyKos has Obama up 6 on Romney. Last poll, it was tied.

More importantly, Democrats are up 6 on the generic ballot.
Click to expand...

The concensus seems to be settling around a 6 point bounce for Obama, which is above historical norms. The size of it has me optimistic that some of it will hold. We're seeing indications that it's helping downballot races as well.
gcubed said:
they haven't released updated leanings since 2010
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And PPP has had a very good track record of late.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Beer Monkey said:
So was Rasmussen really the most accurate pre-election poll in 2008?

http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf
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Probably, but as Nate Silver mentioned on the 9th, it's actually very easy to project the result of an election on the day of the election -- which is why the average poll error was 1.37 points (so either nobody was off by more than three points or so, or the majority of polls were very nearly accurate). Considering the margin of error, this is essentially everybody throwing one dart at a dartboard -- sure, somebody might get a bullseye, but that doesn't make them the best darts player. And note that he's measuring the national popular vote (one variable), not the individual statewide votes (fifty-one).
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
If dems retake the house...lol. Ingram is right, the GOP should just give up if they lose this thing. Every indicator says an incumbant should be weak as hell when running with 8% unemployment and snail slow job growth.

And if they take the house too? Hell Obama could just let the Bush tax cuts expire, then pass his own middle class tax cut in January.
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
GhaleonEB said:
I wanted to suggest everyone read Joe Biden's remarks on the 9/11 anniversary today. I heard a snippet of it on the way to work and can't listen to the full remarks until tonight, but the transcript is here.

Josh Marshall's preamble provides the added context of what Biden has lived through. That context combined with the eloquence of the speech had me openly weeping at lunch just now, thinking of my own family. It's fairly short but I found it very powerful.


The concensus seems to be settling around a 6 point bounce for Obama, which is above historical norms. The size of it has me optimistic that some of it will hold. We're seeing indications that it's helping downballot races as well.


And PPP has had a very good track record of late.
Click to expand...

I know, anecdotally, a lot of conservatives who are aware Obama IS conservative, on the spectrum and are embarassed by the antics of the more vocal members of the base. Those two things may give the GOP a very serious and deserved black eye. They manipulated our entire political system into a tortured parody of itself.
 
T

TacticalFox88

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
If dems retake the house...lol. Ingram is right, the GOP should just give up if they lose this thing. Every indicator says an incumbant should be weak as hell when running with 8% unemployment and snail slow job growth.

And if they take the house too? Hell Obama could just let the Bush tax cuts expire, then pass his own middle class tax cut in January.
Click to expand...
*looks at the rest of Obama's accomplishments*

Um...what?
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
If dems retake the house...lol. Ingram is right, the GOP should just give up if they lose this thing. Every indicator says an incumbant should be weak as hell when running with 8% unemployment and snail slow job growth.

And if they take the house too? Hell Obama could just let the Bush tax cuts expire, then pass his own middle class tax cut in January.
Click to expand...
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-congressional-generic-ballot

4.7 lead. That would put them in that ballpark, between 3 and 4 points is the sweet spot.

For reference GOP was up 3.6 this time two years ago
 
B

BotoxAgent

Member
haha, I love the desperate attempt at comparing the race to Mondale's


They are kinda right except Mondale is Romney....w/out the bump. lol
 
C

CharlieDigital

Banned
From the Burger King thread in OT:

And there's more: Perales owns all of the Popeyes in Dallas – he's that chain's second-largest franchisee -- and 90 percent of the CiCi's restaurants in Houston. His holdings also include 33 Golden Corral restaurants, the company he chose when he opened his first franchise with a Small Business Administration loan in 1997.​
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
HylianTom said:
My god, I'm imagining the meltdowns if the Dems control the two elected branches of government once again. Holy crap if that happens, haha!

I still don't think that the GOP would take the hint.
Click to expand...

It would be glorious. And hopefully dems learn their lesson and start using reconciliation whenever possible. Best way to pass a new tax bill, or to simply renew the middle income portion of the Bush tax cuts
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
It would be glorious. And hopefully dems learn their lesson and start using reconciliation whenever possible. Best way to pass a new tax bill, or to simply renew the middle income portion of the Bush tax cuts
Click to expand...

And if the GOP wants to filibuster these popular things, we should force them to take to the floor and actually do it.

I want the Dems to be able to go to the American people with live footage and say, "See what the Republicans are doing? They don't have enough votes to defeat {Popular Legislation X}, so they'll go to these lengths to prevent us from voting."
 
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