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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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pigeon

Banned
Bernanke suggested today that it would not necessarily be altogether insane to consider studying the possibility of a further round of quantitative easing. Maybe.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20120831a.htm

the bernankester said:
Overall, however, a balanced reading of the evidence supports the conclusion that central bank securities purchases have provided meaningful support to the economic recovery while mitigating deflationary risks....
In sum, both the benefits and costs of nontraditional monetary policies are uncertain; in all likelihood, they will also vary over time, depending on factors such as the state of the economy and financial markets and the extent of prior Federal Reserve asset purchases. Moreover, nontraditional policies have potential costs that may be less relevant for traditional policies. For these reasons, the hurdle for using nontraditional policies should be higher than for traditional policies. At the same time, the costs of nontraditional policies, when considered carefully, appear manageable, implying that we should not rule out the further use of such policies if economic conditions warrant....
As we assess the benefits and costs of alternative policy approaches, though, we must not lose sight of the daunting economic challenges that confront our nation. The stagnation of the labor market in particular is a grave concern not only because of the enormous suffering and waste of human talent it entails, but also because persistently high levels of unemployment will wreak structural damage on our economy that could last for many years.
Over the past five years, the Federal Reserve has acted to support economic growth and foster job creation, and it is important to achieve further progress, particularly in the labor market. Taking due account of the uncertainties and limits of its policy tools, the Federal Reserve will provide additional policy accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2...mpaign=Feed:+CalculatedRisk+(Calculated+Risk)

bill mcbride said:
Bernanke's comments suggest QE3 will be launched very soon, perhaps on September 13th following the next FOMC meeting.

I thought the odds of QE3 in August were high - and the minutes of the meeting indicated they were very very close. It is possible that the FOMC in September will announce an extension of the extended period until 2015 (from late 2014), and wait again for QE3, but that would seem at odds with Bernanke's comments today.

(September) Surprise!
 
Bernanke suggested today that it would not necessarily be altogether insane to consider studying the possibility of a further round of quantitative easing. Maybe.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20120831a.htm



http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2...mpaign=Feed:+CalculatedRisk+(Calculated+Risk)



(September) Surprise!



Second, fiscal policy, at both the federal and state and local levels, has become an important headwind for the pace of economic growth. Notwithstanding some recent improvement in tax revenues, state and local governments still face tight budget situations and continue to cut real spending and employment. Real purchases are also declining at the federal level. Uncertainties about fiscal policy, notably about the resolution of the so-called fiscal cliff and the lifting of the debt ceiling, are probably also restraining activity, although the magnitudes of these effects are hard to judge.30 It is critical that fiscal policymakers put in place a credible plan that sets the federal budget on a sustainable trajectory in the medium and longer runs. However, policymakers should take care to avoid a sharp near-term fiscal contraction that could endanger the recovery.

Well, duh!
 
Bernake saving the hand that feeds? If Obama wins, he should thank Bernake...then appoint someone else asap

lol, QE3 won't save us. We need fiscal change. Also, I think Bernanke has been fine.


Mitt Romney has always had to work hard to prove himself to the heart of the Republican Party, but more than 25.2 million people tuned in to the major networks and cable news stations to witness his well-received acceptance speech, making his the most watched hour of the convention, according to Nielsen Media Research.

Enthusiasm — at least from a television perspective — continued to lag behind 2008, when John McCain and Sarah Palin were on the Republican ticket. McCain spoke to almost 39 million television viewers when he accepted his party’s nomination four years ago

Almost 15 million less people watched Mitt versus McCain.

This can't be good news for the GOP.
 
To be honest, I expect a similar drop for Obama's speech.

Maybe even bigger, but people already know who Obama is. They don't know Mitt and Ryan.

Big difference.

What I'm wondering is if those low numbers for Mitt mean the only people who watched were people who already decided they're voting for him or Obama, not much on the swing voters out there.
 
Bernake saving the hand that feeds? If Obama wins, he should thank Bernake...then appoint someone else asap
Shouldn't he do that regardless of what Bernanke pulls out of his hat last minute though? Any chance of that happening with an Obama second term? I just see so many people screaming for him to be replaced.
 
People know Mitt, they didn't really know Ryan.

This convention was seen by the Republican party as a chance to re-introduce and humanize Romney, you don't do that if you are happy with how you are viewed (historically low favorability). That big of a drop in viewers is awful for Romney
 

markatisu

Member
This convention was seen by the Republican party as a chance to re-introduce and humanize Romney, you don't do that if you are happy with how you are viewed (historically low favorability). That big of a drop in viewers is awful for Romney

Exactly, Obama does not need 2008 ratings at the DNC. Romney/Ryan needed big ratings for indies or to make a splash

When the two big things from the RNC is the massive amount of blowback on Ryans speech of lies and Eastwood speaking to a chair off the cuff you definitely shit away your chance
 
Exactly, Obama does not need 2008 ratings at the DNC. Romney/Ryan needed big ratings for indies or to make a splash

When the two big things from the RNC is the massive amount of blowback on Ryans speech of lies and Eastwood speaking to a chair off the cuff you definitely shit away your chance

Ryan's not as annoying as Palin, but he's close. I'm actually surprised by how annoyed I am at him every time I watch him speak- it's like he just shouldn't be that annoying. Jon Stewart's take was dead on. Where was the substance in his RNC speech? Wasn't that supposed to be the point of having him on the ticket?

Instead of policy we got lies and brown nosing.

I have yet to watch Romney's speech, I'm expecting a lot better than that.
 
Is it just me or does Paul Ryan's eyes freak me the fuck out. It's like some type of political cartoon caricature. Hell, I'd say his entire facial features reek of political satire in real life.
 
Is it just me or does Paul Ryan's eyes freak me the fuck out. It's like some type of political cartoon caricature. Hell, I'd say his entire facial features reek of political satire in real life.
I've said it before - the man is a muppet. He kindof talks like one and kindof looks like one.

ibwwuyJF0kSdRR.jpg


ibldpDXuNLDUkR.jpg
 

Jackson50

Member
I can't handle election season.. my mind is full of fuck.

my friend posted the rolling stone article about Romney and this was someones response.


Herp.
I share his disapproval of the drone strikes and am uneasy about the assassination protocol; the charge about anti-war protests seems strange as the only incidence I'm aware of seemed legitimate. Further, I've censured Obama repeatedly for his strident prosecution of whistleblowers. I disapprove of the expansion of executive authority and the opacity of the office. It creates unaccountability and entices corruption. But I consider these primarily institutional failures. That doesn't excuse Obama, of course. But the problem transcends Obama, Romney, or any candidate.

Notwithstanding those issues, Obama's certainly superior to Romney.
Bernanke suggested today that it would not necessarily be altogether insane to consider studying the possibility of a further round of quantitative easing. Maybe.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20120831a.htm



http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2...mpaign=Feed:+CalculatedRisk+(Calculated+Risk)



(September) Surprise!
It's worth considering, and the Fed should explore additional nontraditional policies, but I'm skeptical of its potential effectiveness. The FRBNY's most recent debt report indicated that deleveraging is continuing unabated. So another round of large asset purchases might be muted.

Also, as has become standard practice for Bernanke, and as BlackMamba noted, fiscal policy is essential to igniting the economy. Our imprudent policy has severely hampered growth.
Well, fuck.. I enjoyed his posts.. this place definitely will not be the same without him.
Yeah. It will be better. Just kidding, ToxicAdam. Goodnight, sweet prince.
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
I don't think the look alike thing was confirmed. Trump posted pictures of him with the look alike when mystery guest was unknown, and people speculated he was going to debate or fire the look alike at RNC.

Also this suggests Clint agreed way before the impersonator stuff floated.
 

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
I don't think the look alike thing was confirmed. Trump posted pictures of him with the look alike when mystery guest was unknown, and people speculated he was going to debate or fire the look alike at RNC.

Also this suggests Clint agreed way before the impersonator stuff floated.


I thought the look-alike twittered that he was going to be at the convention for a special surprise? It's seems to be quite the coincidence to me.... who knows.. I just don't trust anything coming out of Romney's camp.
 

Jackson50

Member
EV will be back in a month. TA in 2 weeks.
BigSicily?
I don't think the look alike thing was confirmed. Trump posted pictures of him with the look alike when mystery guest was unknown, and people speculated he was going to debate or fire the look alike at RNC.

Also this suggests Clint agreed way before the impersonator stuff floated.
I doubt there was any validity to the speculation. But the thought was too much.
 
Any convention quick-polls out?

(Reuters) - Mitt Romney emerged from the Republican convention with an overall improvement in his image among voters but no significant change in the number who say they will vote for him, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Friday.

The four-day rolling poll has Democratic President Barack Obama still leading Romney in general favorability, 52 percent to 50 percent.

Thirty-one percent of the registered voters responding to the survey found Romney "likeable" in Friday's poll, up from Monday's 26 percent. Obama enjoys a 48 percent likeability rating.

Especially notable was Romney's boost among independents, 45 percent of whom rated him favorably, compared with Thursday's 34 percent. Twenty percent of independents found him likeable, up from Thursday's 16 percent.

Romney and Obama remain in a dead heat in most national polls of voting intentions. Friday's Reuters/Ipsos poll had Romney with a slim one-point lead among likely voters, effectively unchanged from the day before.

One poll, but according to Silver, Romney needs a 4 point bounce to maintain status quo. Anything less is really bad. He was basically -1.5 going in, so needs to be +2.5 starting now. Of course, that's not just based on 1 poll, so this isn't evidence of anything other than not a huge bounce so far.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/31/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE87U1CJ20120831

edit: Rasmussen tracked (for fun)

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 45% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 44% of the vote. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

Forty-four percent (44%) of voters now see Obama as Very Liberal, and 30% see Romney as Very Conservative.

LOL @ Both (last quote that is)
 
One poll, but according to Silver, Romney needs a 4 point bounce to maintain status quo. Anything less is really bad. He was basically -1.5 going in, so needs to be +2.5 starting now. Of course, that's not just based on 1 poll, so this isn't evidence of anything other than not a huge bounce so far.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/31/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE87U1CJ20120831

edit: Rasmussen tracked (for fun)





LOL @ Both (last quote that is)

once the Eastwood debacle blows over, the 11 point bump will kick in ;-)
 

Clevinger

Member
One poll, but according to Silver, Romney needs a 4 point bounce to maintain status quo. Anything less is really bad. He was basically -1.5 going in, so needs to be +2.5 starting now. Of course, that's not just based on 1 poll, so this isn't evidence of anything other than not a huge bounce so far.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/31/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE87U1CJ20120831

edit: Rasmussen tracked (for fun)

Reuters had a different poll yesterday which had Romney with a 6+ bump, taking the lead.
 

RDreamer

Member
Just got a direct mail piece from Mitt Romney's campaign. Not sure how or why he has my name and address, but he kind of wasted his money here, since this is all about medicare.

On the back it compares their "plans:"
On Obama's side:

Barack Obama. The only president in history to raid medicare of $716 billion

A Path of Debt and decline
President Barack Obama has put America on the wrong track - more spending, more debt, and bigger government that puts our future at risk

$716 billion cut from medicare
President Obama cut $716 billion from medicare to pay for Obamacare

No plan to strengthen medicare for future generations
Barack Obama has offered no proposal to strengthen Medicare and guarantee it will exist for younger Americans

Barack Obama. What a disappointment.

On the bottom there's a really sad, dejected looking old person in a wheelchair

On Romney's:

Preserve benefits for today's seniors
No changes for today's seniors or those near retirement

Make medicare work for tomorrow's seniors
Provide greater choice and more freedom

Protect our future
No risk to America's financial future



Really odd messaging I must say. Having the bullet point about Obama going spending crazy literally right above a point about him cutting something seems really odd to me. I also love how vague Romney's side is.
 

Clevinger

Member
Republicans are going to hold another mini-convention during the DNC to try and hurt its bump.

As many as 50 “communicators” will travel straight from the Republican convention, which wrapped up Tuesday in Tampa, up to Charlotte, where Democrats kick off their convention in earnest on Tuesday, according to a plan provided to ABC News.

Primetime speakers from the Republican event who will travel up to Charlotte include RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, and Govs. Nikki Haley of South Carolina and Mary Fallin of Oklahoma. They’ll hone in on a theme – “Obama Isn’t Working” – and offer rapid response, daily videos to counter the Democrats’ message.
 

codhand

Member
Republicans are going to hold another mini-convention during the DNC to try and hurt its bump.

cute

Ed Schultz has the regional director of the Janesville plant--with a bunch of supporters (20ish) in the background--stating the notion "then senator Obama" closed the plant, is an "outright lie".
 

Mumei

Member
Could someone direct me to (or just post) the data for the monthly job reports since 2008? I am interested in how many jobs were gained or lost each month and I cannot remember where to find it.
 
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