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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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demon

I don't mean to alarm you but you have dogs on your face
She could do it. People are living longer so the Reagan/McCain comparison really isn't that valid (then again it is because Reagan lived a long time post-Presidency, despite his mental health, and he ran in the 80s)

Just don't put an idiot like Sarah Palin as your #2 and people will be confident.
Wasn't Reagan in fact getting senile before his presidency ended?
 

Fox318

Member
Yeah. If she decides to run, I doubt any serious Democrat would challenge her. She's developed a certain cachet within the Democratic Party.

I agree.

If she wants to run in 2016 I think she would be the person to beat unless Obama's 2nd term is a complete bust or a moderate comes out of the GOP.
 

Averon

Member
Only a 2-3 point bump post convention? That's not going to change the race's dynamics (particularly the electoral college difficulty) for Romney. Makes that 11 point bump prediction even more absurd than it already was.
 

Fox318

Member
Only a 2-3 point bump post convention? That's not going to change the race's dynamics (particularly the electoral college difficulty) for Romney. Makes that 11 point bump prediction even more absurd than it already was.

Don't you feel that the storm undercut the convention a little?
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Huh, didn't know this:

In 2008, more than 38.9 million people watched the comparable closing night of the RNC when John McCain accepted the Republican presidential nomination— about 8.6 million more people than last night’s viewership. McCain’s acceptance speech in 2008 also bested then Democratic hopeful Pres. Barack Obama’s speech by 500,000 viewers.

Guess Obama won't be president in 2008 now. :(
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Yeah. If she decides to run, I doubt any serious Democrat would challenge her. She's developed a certain cachet within the Democratic Party.

I think people said that about her in 2008! But really, it would be her time. Her Time™
 

Cheebo

Banned
I really hope no one freaks out when Obama gets mediocre ratings too, almost assuredly worse than Romneys. Obama is a known quantity and most Americans have seen like a half a dozen Obama speeches. It won't mean a whole lot to non-political junkies.
 

Snake

Member
Speaking of age and senility, did anyone besides me have no idea that Joe Arpaio is 80 years old? The man doesn't look a day over 70.

I first noticed this in an article about the Feds dropping their financial probe on him. And suddenly it all made sense. Of course he's an especially crazy birther, he's 80 frickin' years old!
 

Averon

Member
Don't you feel that the storm undercut the convention a little?

Maybe, but I doubt it. The storm didn't stop the networks from airing the convention speeches in prime time. I'd say the lackluster speech by Romney and the lower ratings probably had a bigger impact.


Cheebo said:
I really hope no one freaks out when Obama gets mediocre ratings too, almost assuredly worse than Romneys. Obama is a known quantity and most Americans have seen like a half a dozen Obama speeches. It won't mean a whole lot to non-political junkies

Yeah. I fully expect the DNC to have a similar drop in ratings. The problem for Romney is that Obama doesn't need super high ratings; people already know him, being the incumbent and all. Romney needs momentum from the conventions going into the final stretch. If Silver's numbers hold up, that didn't happen. I guess he also got the debates, but I don't expect those it change the race wildly unless Obama blunders badly in them, which I seriously doubt.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Don't you feel that the storm undercut the convention a little?

It wasn't the storm so much as the actual convention. Ryan got beat up by the media for all the lies in his speech and all anyone talks about from the last night is Clint Eastwood. Sure the storm didn't help, but it had no effect on either of those two events.
 

CHEEZMO™

Obsidian fan
Speaking of age and senility, did anyone besides me have no idea that Joe Arpaio is 80 years old?

I first noticed this in an article about the Feds dropping their financial probe on him. And suddenly it all made sense. Of course he's an especially crazy birther, he's 80 frickin' years old!

WTF, I always assumed the guy was some mad 50-something.

Note: I've never seen a picture of him and my only exposure was through him saying crazy shit that I read about on GAF.
 
I really hope no one freaks out when Obama gets mediocre ratings too, almost assuredly worse than Romneys. Obama is a known quantity and most Americans have seen like a half a dozen Obama speeches. It won't mean a whole lot to non-political junkies.
I think Obama will get maybe a point or two, if only because the Democrats probably won't have anyone as disastrous as Clint Eastwood in a prime speaking spot.

Averon said:
Yeah. I fully expect the DNC to have a similar drop in ratings. The problem for Romney is that Obama doesn't need super high ratings; people already know him, being the incumbent and all. Romney needs momentum from the conventions going into the final stretch. If Silver's numbers hold up, that didn't happen. I guess he also got the debates, but I don't expect those it change the race wildly unless Obama blunders badly in them, which I seriously doubt.
I can't wait for the debates. Obama's going to run circles around Romney.
 
Should HRC run in 2016? Discuss

(seriously, my parents are like dying to vote for her but won't she be too old?)

Yeah, she's qualified but the age argument is a killer. 69 for first term, 73 for re election, and 77 at the end of a second term is very much pushing it. Reagan was way too old for his term and as someone else noted was going senile at some point.
 

XMonkey

lacks enthusiasm.
I don't think Hillary will run. She'll be too old.

Also, Obama was a generational shift for the Presidency and I don't want to see us start throwing the old guard back in.
 

RDreamer

Member
I really hope no one freaks out when Obama gets mediocre ratings too, almost assuredly worse than Romneys. Obama is a known quantity and most Americans have seen like a half a dozen Obama speeches. It won't mean a whole lot to non-political junkies.

Yeah realistically I think he'll get low ratings, but part of me wonders if some of the disillusioned who voted for him and are weary will tune in just to see what he says. The guy can give a speech with the best of them, and I just wonder if he'll inspire them to at least give it another shot, and possibly move things a tiny bit.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Are we talking about marathongate yet? lol

We can change that.

Yeah realistically I think he'll get low ratings, but part of me wonders if some of the disillusioned who voted for him and are weary will tune in just to see what he says. The guy can give a speech with the best of them, and I just wonder if he'll inspire them to at least give it another shot, and possibly move things a tiny bit.

When faced between a choice of attempting to move in the right direction, and making some progress (like the last 4 years), or dismantling our social safety net...
 
Should HRC run in 2016? Discuss

(seriously, my parents are like dying to vote for her but won't she be too old?)

She should but I dunno if she will. She's clearly the most popular politician in the country, has the most experience, and is best suited to deal with the partisanship of congress

69 isn't too old (in 2016). I'd give her five years of my life to make her 64 in 2016
 
She should but I dunno if she will. She's clearly the most popular politician in the country, has the most experience, and is best suited to deal with the partisanship of congress

69 isn't too old (in 2016). I'd give her five years of my life to make her 64 in 2016

Well that's just creepy.
 

Cheebo

Banned
I love you PD.

And I don't think she'll run. The only way she will if the party panics and doesn't think Cuomo/O'Malley/etc will be able to win. Like how the GOP got Rick Perry to run. Well except she wouldn't blow the debates and lose in that circumstance.
 

RDreamer

Member
69 isn't too old (in 2016). I'd give her five years of my life to make her 64 in 2016

That's... that's just a bit much...


When faced between a choice of attempting to move in the right direction, and making some progress (like the last 4 years), or dismantling our social safety net...

Yeah, I think if people tuned in they'll definitely think that. I can see them still kind of voting begrudgingly, but I can't see as many of them completely ignoring it and not voting as before. Again, the guy can give a barnburner of a speech. If he has their ear he'll inspire a few. I think, though, that he has to go through his accomplishments in his speech one by one, and then get into where we're going. Show people that he has done quite a bit of things, and we have progressed. Then make the case that we still have more work to do, and outline what that work entails. I think the young disillusioned if they hear that will listen. Not in droves like in 08, but enough.
 
Obama is going to kill a speech that reflects on what has been accomplished and the work that is yet left to do. Those who have been disheartened by policy disappointment will come away feeling like a lot has been done, and that maybe, just maybe there is hope that even more can be as well.

That's my prediction. I never doubt the man's ability to inspire, and I think the need for this moment will make that inspiration that much more tangible.
 

Diablos

Member
I love you PD.

And I don't think she'll run. The only way she will if the party panics and doesn't think Cuomo/O'Malley/etc will be able to win. Like how the GOP got Rick Perry to run. Well except she wouldn't blow the debates and lose in that circumstance.

thus, she wins
 
I have a feeling the media will try their hardest to dislike the speech to some degree; likely they'll argue it's just ok even if it's great. The want a shiny new toy
 
thus, she wins
It's like you've given up on 2012 so you're CLing about 2016 already. unless i'm misreading you

PhoenixDark said:
I have a feeling the media will try their hardest to dislike the speech to some degree; likely they'll argue it's just ok even if it's great. The want a shiny new toy
I remember reading a story shortly after Obama's election saying that the media desperately wanted Obama to fail from the beginning so that when he was defeated for re-election they could paint him as the earnest, young reformer who tried to change Washington but just couldn't. In fact they're already trying to set up Paul Ryan as the same thing, but that's not going over as well, he's very much a part of the establishment.
 
So I haven't kept my disdain for Ryan private on my Facebook. Some conservative friends of mine are now on the "fact checkers are all liberally biased!" band wagon.

I truly don't understand this entire line of thinking and I fear for where our country is going if so many people will just follow the narrative, lock step, without question.
 

HylianTom

Banned
I'd love for Hillary to run. Assuming Obama's second term isn't a disaster, she'd most likely win, as demographics are close to giving Dems a lock on the Electoral College.
 
2016 is a open election for the Dem side of things regardless what happens this year.

Pretty interesting that Bush, Obama, and McCain chose vice presidents who apparently had no impact on future races. Cheney wasn't interested, Biden will likely be too old, and Palin is Palin. Ryan breaks that cycle and will be the next nominee if Romney loses...well unless Romney loses due to Ryan's budget
 
Pretty interesting that Bush, Obama, and McCain chose vice presidents who apparently had no impact on future races. Cheney wasn't interested, Biden will likely be too old, and Palin is Palin. Ryan breaks that cycle and will be the next nominee if Romney loses...well unless Romney loses due to Ryan's budget

Usually VPs are picked who help the candidate win the CURRENT election, not a hypothetical one 8 years out, so those pics make sense in that context.

Cheney most certainly COULD have run, he just happened to be the most unpopular piece of a toxic administration in 2008 and had no shot.

If McCain had won in 2008, I could see Palin in 2016 paired with a VP that would do all of the actual work, just as bush was packaged in 2000
 
Depends on how a second Obama term goes. If we get a recovery as many suggest, tjings could look rosy for dems. But let's not forget things looked rosy for dems in 1999 too, then Clinton fucked everything up with a scandal.
 

Diablos

Member
Depends on how a second Obama term goes. If we get a recovery as many suggest, tjings could look rosy for dems. But let's not forget things looked rosy for dems in 1999 too, then Clinton fucked everything up with a scandal.
So basically Obama needs to have his own Lewinsky.
I doubt he'd do that, but even if he did, he paid attention to the 90's.
He'd just have to admit he did have an affair under oath, and it would hurt his reputation but would not make him impeachable.

You are uber paranoid for even thinking that through. Troll post?
 

Cloudy

Banned
Pretty interesting that Bush, Obama, and McCain chose vice presidents who apparently had no impact on future races. Cheney wasn't interested, Biden will likely be too old, and Palin is Palin. Ryan breaks that cycle and will be the next nominee if Romney loses...well unless Romney loses due to Ryan's budget

No way Ryan's the nominee if they don't win Wisconsin. I would guess Rubio/Christie is next. In fact, I would bet anything that Rubio turned Romney down this time

PS: I'm watching clips of the Current convention coverage. Jennifer Granholm is ridiculously MILFy lol
 
Depends on how a second Obama term goes. If we get a recovery as many suggest, tjings could look rosy for dems. But let's not forget things looked rosy for dems in 1999 too, then Clinton fucked everything up with a scandal.
I think Obama's a little more restrained than Clinton.
 
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