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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Black Mamba said:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ee7de4d2-065b-11e2-bd29-00144feabdc0.html

Oh man, Mittens can't keep his hands clean. I'd wish this story would gain some traction, but I doubt it.
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9iAkL.gif


So much for a slow few days...
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Speaking of Hillary, why is she meeting with world leaders at the UN while Obama yuks it up on The View? Such a stupid unforced error considering the press is already looking for something to run with, and Romney continues to beat the Libya drum. Obama doesn't expect this to come up during the foreign policy debate when he's asked about that three day warning the Libyan embassy received?
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You don't want the SoS to meet with world leaders?

While I do think the foreign policy shit right now can be dangerous for Obama, only because American Public are all to ready to vote Republicans if they fear them Muslims again, the worst thing out of all this is Romney exploiting Steven's death. And still continues to do so. American media should be alarmed that GOP wants US's foreign policy to be dictated by what Netanhyu wants, not what the American public wants, but they are not.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
"But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States" - 12th Amendment.

I always assumed this would prevent a former 2 term Pres becoming VP and then becoming Pres again via that channel.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
OrangeGrayBlue said:
So I made an electoral map of what I feel the red/blue/swing states will look like in the 2016 general election. I feel like it's an accurate projection. Feel free to suggest something different, but if you feel this is accurate it begs the question: how will the GOP even pretend there's a real chance at winning with the upcoming changes in the electorate?
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=BuV
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Montana & MO will stay red. I think Iowa and Virginia will stay swing states.

But yeah, as time marches on they are going to have to change their platform to bring on more voters. As Senator Lindsay Graham said, they are "not making angry white men" fast enough to stay in business.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Forever said:
The constitution says you can't be elected more than twice, doesn't say anything about getting the office via succession. Untested legally though.
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I'd love to see Scalia try to dodge his 'strict constructionist' schtick as an 80 year-old justice trying to avoid having Hillary take office.
 
R

Rocket Scientist

Member
Chumly said:
Its unfortunate that something like that was on forbes since forbes does give the allusion of credible but the article was a typical fear mongering republican article (AARP in bed with obama etc etc).

....
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Thanks for the write up, that was very informative. I knew there must have been more to the story. It's unfortunate that it's on Forbes so people can pass it around as a legitimate article.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
OrangeGrayBlue said:
Very true. WV is my home state. They used to be one of the most reliably democratic states in the country. Unfortunately, electing a black guy was a little too much for them to handle. Either way, all the math looks to me like the democratic candidate, assuming it's someone decent, will start out with more guaranteed EVs than they need to win, or damn close to it. However, I know the media would never frame an election that way to protect their ratings, so it begs the question of exactly how this will be handled. I'd almost guarantee a black/hispanic GOP candidate in 2016 that is ideologically very similar to the others as a superficial way to try to secure any sort of non-white vote.
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They haven't voted for a Democrat since 1996.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
Basileus777 said:
1996 isn't that long ago. When was the last time Virginia, North Carolina, or any of Nebraska's EVs was won by a Democrat before 2008?
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None of that addresses the point I was trying to make, even if I had been more clear. You're citing states whose demographics and populations are shifting more towards the Democrats, and clearly that's what's causing them to go blue or become more of a swing state. No state will ever vote for one party forever, and in landslides you'll see some states – under the right conditions – disrupt their usual voting patterns (like Indiana). Which can also be a sign of an overall shift too.

I was more disputing the idea, or what OrangeGrayBlue seemed to be implying, that WV voted Republican because Obama is black. Yes, there is a lot of racism there, but that's ignoring the state's recent voting patterns. It seems like Democrats are having a harder time winning elections there. Manchin had a difficult time getting elected. I have a friend whose dad is a Democratic district attorney, and they're terrified he's going to lose.

Edit: This is like saying Vermont will vote Republican again any time soon just because they've only been voting Democrat since 1992.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Dax01 said:
None of that addresses the point I was trying to make, even if I had been more clear. You're citing states whose demographics and populations are shifting more towards the Democrats, and clearly that's what's causing them to go blue or become more of a swing state. No state will ever vote for one party forever, and in landslides you'll see some states – under the right conditions – disrupt their usual voting patterns (like Indiana). Which can also be a sign of an overall shift too.

I was more disputing the idea, or what OrangeGrayBlue seemed to be implying, that WV voted Republican because Obama is black. Yes, there is a lot of racism there, but that's ignoring the state's recent voting patterns. It seems like Democrats are having a harder time winning elections there. Manchin had a difficult time getting elected. I have a friend whose dad is a Democratic district attorney, and they're terrified he's going to lose.

Edit: This is like saying Vermont will vote Republican again any time soon just because they've only been voting Democrat since 1992.
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And yet Democrats still hold the governorship, both U.S. Senate seats, and dominate the state legislature in West Virginia. That's quite a bit different from the state of the Republican Party in Vermont. The Clintons are pretty popular there, even today if the 2008 primary is any indication. Put Hillary on the ballot and maybe it can be in play again.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
Basileus777 said:
And yet Democrats still hold the governorship, both U.S. Senate seats, and dominate the state legislature in West Virginia. That's quite a bit different from the state of the Republican Party in Vermont.
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While that may be true, you're still not addressing my main point:
I was more disputing the idea, or what OrangeGrayBlue seemed to be implying, that WV voted Republican because Obama is black. Yes, there is a lot of racism there, but that's ignoring the state's recent voting patterns.
Click to expand...

Whether or not WV is still a reliably Democratic state (and I would argue it is not anymore, even with it's federal and state makeup), the fact that they didn't vote for Obama in '08 shouldn't come as a surprise given that they voted for Bush twice, McCain once, and will vote for Romney once.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Dax01 said:
*le sigh* See my post above yours. They haven't voted Democrat in the past three elections because they knew Democrats would run a black man for president in 2008.
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It was fairly close in 2000 and 2004. It was a swing state prior to Obama. And will be again if someone like hillary is the nominee in 2016.
 
A

Averon

Member
Dax01 said:
Anyway, the Post has a new poll out. Obama leads in Ohio by eight, and in Florida by four.
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Obama is over 50% in both, which is very important. OH and increasingly VA seems to be out of reach for Romney. FL is still close enough that I think Romney still may have a (slim) chance of flipping it red.
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
I wonder if anyone has been up 5-8 points in Ohio this close to the election and lost. I would find it hard to believe. Maybe Carter? Although, I doubt they did such comprehensive state polling back then.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
ToxicAdam said:
I wonder if anyone has been up 5-8 points in Ohio this close to the election and lost. I would find it hard to believe. Maybe Carter? Although, I doubt they did such comprehensive state polling back then.
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Carter wouldn't have crossed that 50% threshold though which is the big thing of recent polling. When he was ahead of Reagan there was a gigantic base of undecides at the time. When he was beating Reagan in the polls both of them were polling in the 30%'s.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Basileus777 said:
That's the same as writing off the election, they can't write off Ohio and still have any chance at 270. Well unless you think Wisconsin is actually in play.
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Due to the change in the electoral vote counts per state Obama can lose with Ohio + WI. Romney would need to win florida, virginia, nc, etc, though.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
ToxicAdam said:
No Republican (since Lincoln!) has won the Presidency without Ohio.
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So no Republican ever.
Cheebo said:
It was fairly close in 2000 and 2004. It was a swing state prior to Obama. And will be again if someone like hillary is the nominee in 2016.
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A thirteen point spread in '04 is close? Obama lost the state to McCain in 2008 by thirteen points too. He's on track to lose it to Romney by double digits. Either I'm severely underestimating the racism in that state, or something else is going on.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Cheebo said:
Due to the change in the electoral vote counts per state Obama can lose with Ohio + WI. Romney would need to win florida, virginia, nc, etc, though.
Click to expand...

He'd have to win New Hampshire, Romney still has better odds of making a comeback in Ohio than winning every single one of those states.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Obama must be feeling confident. He has basically been off the campaign trail except for 1 or 2 events this past week and is the case the next few days as well while Romney is off on his 3 day bus tour of Ohio starting today.
 
A

Averon

Member
Basileus777 said:
That's the same as writing off the election, they can't write off Ohio and still have any chance at 270. Well unless you think Wisconsin is actually in play.
Click to expand...

Nah, I don't think WI is in play anymore. It be honest, I really don't know what Romney can do. Looking at the map, and giving Ohio to Obama, Romney needs to pick off a hell of a lot of swing states to eke out a win. He needs Ohio to win, but dumping money and resources in a state that's increasingly falling out of reach doesn't seem like the answer, either. Romney's screwed whatever he does.
 
P

polyh3dron

Banned
According to Mitt Romney, Obama's policies do to Americans what the Tunisian gov't did to Mohammed Azizi that made him self-immolate (thus starting the Arab Spring protests). He just wanted to work and Obama won't let us work.

What in the fuck.
 
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