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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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PhoenixDark

Banned
Dax01 said:
Is Chait wrong in the significance of this?
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Pretty naive argument. People view strikes differently: one by refs against the "greedy" multi-billion dollar (private) business NFL may be met with support, but one by teachers against schools/state tax payer money? A problem. This same argument was raised last year during the NFL player strike and it had no impact on anything - not general views on unions or the Wisconsin recall.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Aaron Strife said:
PPP Nevada

Obama 52
Romney 43

Berkley 48
Heller 44

Yet another senate race turning for the good guys.
Click to expand...

It was a poll for LCV though, so I take it with a grain of salt.

Poll by Glen Bolger (R) finds the race tied. http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/another-new-poll-presidential-race-tied-heller-5

I wouldn't normally bring this up apart from the fact that Ralstron (arguably knows Nevada better than anyone else) thinks they are reliable and the fact that their poll was only of only few that showed Reid ahead of Angle by 5 which was the final margin of victory too.

If I had to guess, Presidential Race is between those two, so O+4ish for NV and Senate race is tied.
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
Bill Simmons cracked me up today on his podcast. He says that Presidential candidates needs to go for it and come out strongly against the NFL replacement refs and Apple not using Google maps anymore. Potential huge swings in the popular vote.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
It was a poll for LCV though, so I take it with a grain of salt.

Poll by Glen Bolger (R) finds the race tied. http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/another-new-poll-presidential-race-tied-heller-5

I wouldn't normally bring this up apart from the fact that Ralstron (arguably knows Nevada better than anyone else) thinks they are reliable and the fact that their poll was only of only few that showed Reid ahead of Angle by 5 which was the final margin of victory too.

If I had to guess, Presidential Race is between those two, so O+4ish for NV and Senate race is tied.
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Well a R pollster has it tied. Guess that settles that.

PPP doesn't change its methodology when polling for other clients, so I'm more willing to trust them.
 
R

ronito

Member
HylianTom said:
"Republicans Are Preparing For Four More Years Of Obama" by Eric Pianin at Business Insider

http://www.businessinsider.com/gop-preparing-for-4-more-years-of-obama-2012-9



The base loonies lusting over the polls may be living in another world, but apparently those in DC are reading the writing on the wall.
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personally I wonder how long they've been preparing. You haven't really seen Boehner out on the campaign trial much unlike other leaders in the past. I wonder if they're just trying to keep him neutral so that it doesn't bite them when Obama wins.
 
G

gcubed

Member
ToxicAdam said:
Bill Simmons cracked me up today on his podcast. He says that Presidential candidates needs to go for it and come out strongly against the NFL replacement refs and Apple not using Google maps anymore. Potential huge swings in the popular vote.
Click to expand...

I expect Romney to drive into a lake any day now and blame it on Apple and Obama
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Well a R pollster has it tied. Guess that settles that.

PPP doesn't change its methodology when polling for other clients, so I'm more willing to trust them.
Click to expand...

I am basing it more on Ralston feedback than R vs D pollster. Here is his take on the race:
http://sulia.com/channel/all-politics-causes/f/1a03ffbe-cd85-4cc8-aa25-089a8434087b/?source=twitter

My gut (combined with all the data I know of) tells me Obama is running quite strong and that Berkley is not ahead but closer than she should be, all things considered
Click to expand...
 
C

Chichikov

Member
RustyNails said:
Still trying to wrap my mind around the fact that these intolerant fucktards live in Boston. How is this even possible?
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Racism and intolerance is unrelated to your belief about taxation and the services the government should provide.
I mean, not so long ago, most of the racists in the country voted Democrats.

Also, if you have to wonder about fucktards living in Boston it means that you've never been to Boston or a Red Sox game.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Loudninja said:
WaPo poll:

Sherrod Brown 53
Josh Mandel 41

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/wapo-brown-leads-by-12-in-ohio-senate
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This is amazing

GOP Super PACs have spent soo much fucking money in OH Senate race, Brown winning by that big of a margin would be amazing.

thecouncil said:
the link he provides is this. turning that quote into "the future doesn't belong to christians" or whatever the hell is such a funny workaround.
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Click to expand...

It will be on Drudge within the hour and Fox news soon after.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
speculawyer said:
Boston is a seriously segregated city.
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A lot of 'em are.

chicagodots_race_lines.jpg

racemapnyc.jpg
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And as time goes by, we're going to see them more segregated by income/class. Those with the means to do so will live in town, near transit lines. Those who can't afford living in town will be priced-out into the suburbs. Interestingly, those who could most afford high energy/commuting prices won't drive as much, and those who can't afford paying will be in places with cruddy transit options.
 
E

electricpirate

Member
HylianTom said:
A lot of 'em are.



And as time goes by, we're going to see them more segregated by income/class. Those with the means to do so will live in town, near transit lines. Those who can't afford living in town will be priced-out into the suburbs. Interestingly, those who could most afford high energy/commuting prices won't drive as much, and those who can't afford paying will be in places with cruddy transit options.
Click to expand...

The most concentrated Racism I've ever seen occurred while house hunting in brooklyn. A quick sampling...

"You kids are so comfortable living near black people."
"Do any black people near by?"
"You don't want to move there, the afghani's are moving in and pushing the russians out"

That was from a mix of people at open houses, and realtors. Pretty disgusting. Racism is alive and well in big northern cities sadly.


NihonTiger90 said:
So is he arguing that if Obama's quote means the future must not belong to practicing Christians ... that practicing Christians slander the prophet of Islam?

Does he realize that's what he's saying?
Click to expand...


I had the same thought, he doesn't realize that he's basically insulting all Christians here.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
electricpirate said:
The most concentrated Racism I've ever seen occurred while house hunting in brooklyn. A quick sampling...

"You kids are so comfortable living near black people."
"Do any black people near by?"
"You don't want to move their, the afghani's are moving in and pushing the russians out"

That was from a mix of people at open houses, and realtors. Pretty disgusting. Racism is alive and well in big northern cities sadly.
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Gaah.. makes me cringe. It's 2012. What're racists going to do in another hundred years or so when a much huger portion of the populaton is mixed?
 
P

pigeon

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
I am basing it more on Ralston feedback than R vs D pollster. Here is his take on the race:
http://sulia.com/channel/all-politics-causes/f/1a03ffbe-cd85-4cc8-aa25-089a8434087b/?source=twitter
Click to expand...

That's a hedge big enough for Versailles. Basically, we need to see more polls in Nevada.

Here's an envelope sketch: last five polls in Nevada are +7, +2 (Ras), +3, +7, +3 (PPP). Six point bump since PPP's last visit on 8/26 is on the high side -- the only state they've shown such a movement for in the last month is Wisconsin, which was moving out of norms because of Ryan in August. Usually they're showing 2-4 points of improvement. If we assume a nationwide shift, which is not inconsistent with MOST of the data, then Nevada +5 or so seems like a reasonable benchmark, splitting the difference between the polls -- which suggests basically a tossup in the Senate, as cartoon_soldier and Ralstron suggested.

Of course, just averaging the polls is basically the safest possible position to take, so it's not surprising he took it. Here's another perspective -- Obama's reaching his 2008 margins in a number of states. In Nevada, he beat McCain 55-43. That's even better than PPP's numbers. Of course, he wasn't running against a Mormon in 08. But even edging his position back quite a few points makes PPP's poll look significantly more likely -- which would suggest a slight Democratic lead in the Senate race.

Who knows?

edit: From that Red State article:

Erickson said:
As an exit point, with all of President Obama’s statements on tolerance in his speech, we should remember that tolerance is really not a Christian virtue.
Click to expand...

Yeah. The American way indeed.
 
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