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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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A

Averon

Member
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/251413-gop-takes-aim-at-skewed-polls

GOP takes aim at ‘skewed’ polls

The Romney campaign and other Republicans say polls showing President Obama with a significant lead over their candidate are inaccurate.

They argue many mainstream polls skew in Obama’s favor because of sample sizes that base 2012 turnout projections on 2008, when Democrats — and Hispanics, blacks and young voters in particular — turned out in record numbers.

“I don’t think [the polls] reflect the composition of what 2012 is going to look like,” Romney pollster Neil Newhouse said in an interview.

Frustration that polls are skewed in favor of Obama has escalated among some on the right in recent weeks. One website, www.unskewedpolls.com, recently began re-weighting the mainstream polls to closer track the demographic assumptions of conservative polling outlet Rasmussen Reports. The re-weighted polls all show Romney ahead in the race, with leads of between 3 and 11 percentage points.

Democrats counter that the sample sizes used in polls are accurate because there is no reason to think the makeup of the 2012 electorate will be proportionately different than in 2008. They also point to census data that shows minorities making up a greater share of the population, something driven by the surging Hispanic population.
Click to expand...

How long will this denial continue?
 
T

Tim-E

Member
If Hillary is the candidate in 2016, I guarantee West Virginia will be considered a swing state. I'd do an avatar/ban bet on it if I'm still around at the time.
 
P

polyh3dron

Banned
lol it looks like Romney's campaign finally initiated the empathy subroutine, they managed to allocate enough RAM for it. He's completely changing his tone on pretty much everything, shaking the etch-a-sketch, as it were.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Averon said:
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/251413-gop-takes-aim-at-skewed-polls

GOP takes aim at ‘skewed’ polls

How long will this denial continue?
Click to expand...

Probably until around November 6th.

Obama is nearing 50% in the state in the polling averages, while Romney is actually losing support. He had been running roughly parallel to Obama, as they both gradually picked up support.

ohio.png


As with TA, I can't think of an election - at least not since I started paying attention - where one candidate had this kind of a lead in Ohio. (And TA has said since the beginning that Ohio would reject Romney; he's certainly been correct on that front.)


Edit: Consumer Confidence was just released for the month. It's up 10 points from last month.
 
S

syllogism

Member
That Hill article is awful. How about pointing out that most polls aren't weighed and party id numbers vary based on the question wording, when it is asked among other things. Moreover, "independents" are more likely to say they identify with the party of the person they happen to be voting, so party id also fluctuates based on that. Who is deemed a likely voter depends heavily on how they answer the poll questions rather than just taking 2008 and applying that as a model.
 
A

Agnostic

but believes in Chael
POTUS speaking at UN if anyone is inclined to watch.
Edit: I'm watching C-Span so I don't have a link for you people with just internet.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
I remember back in 2004 dailykos was filled with people showing why polling was flawed. Missing democratic voters, young people don't respond to polls, etc.

It's crazy to watch that same exact reaction on the right this time.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Cheebo said:
I remember back in 2004 dailykos was filled with people showing why polling was flawed. Missing democratic voters, young people don't respond to polls, etc.

It's crazy to watch that same exact reaction on the right this time.
Click to expand...

When your side is training badly it is the first reaction. Romney's campaign is telling donors to just follow Rasmussen lol
 
M

Mario

Sidhe / PikPok
cartoon_soldier said:
Damn...I may need to watch a video of this.
Click to expand...

He is speaking with great clarity and firmness. I doubt there will be any grey area regarding his position on several foreign policy issues.

To summarise what I remember so far in terms of sentiments

- Opened describing Chris Stevens mission to Libya
- US condemns the message of the anti Islam movie, but defends the free speech right behind it along with freedom from discrimination
- US condemns violent protests. Not only an issue for the US and the West, but long term such action turns Sunni against Shia, clan against tribe
- We need a secure Israel and an independent Palestinian state. US is prepared to make this journey with those who are prepared to work towards it
- Assad regime must come to an end
- Must restrict Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon
- "Justice will be done, history is on our side" in context of Stevens killing
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
It's not surprising that West Virginia didn't vote for a MA liberal and a black guy; the Gore loss is more interesting but iirc it was close (in on iPod right now and don't feel like checking). Hillary would certainly make it competitive

Like many southern states before 08 it has a history of electing democrats to high office, usually governorships. The tea party has slowly gotten rid of many southern congressmen but dems still hold a senate seat there

A lot of Obama's problems there also have to do with coal and the EPA
 
E

Ecotic

Member
I don't even understand the fervor from the right to challenge the polls. If I was a conservative I wouldn't want Romney to win anymore. This is a guy whose loved less than half as much as liberals tolerated John Kerry. And then if Romney wins you have to wait 8 years to get a new candidate assuming Romney runs for re-election, unless they seriously want to challenge the sitting President in the primaries.

Just stomach 4 more years of impassioned opposition and get someone you can love next time.
 
A

Averon

Member
Ecotic said:
I don't even understand the fervor from the right to challenge the polls. If I was a conservative I wouldn't want Romney to win anymore. This is a guy whose loved less than half as much as liberals tolerated John Kerry. And then if Romney wins you have to wait 8 years to get a new candidate assuming Romney runs for re-election, unless they seriously want to challenge the sitting President in the primaries.

Just stomach 4 more years of impassioned opposition and get someone you can love next time.
Click to expand...

If the GOP lose here, ACA becomes nearly impossible to overturn and the Bush tax cuts are likely out as well. Also, Obama will get the credit for the eventual economic boom that will happen before he leaves office, which will solidify his popularity and make Dems taking the WH again in 2016 that much more likely.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Averon said:
If the GOP lose here, ACA becomes nearly impossible to overturn and the Bush tax cuts are likely out as well. Also, Obama will get the credit for the eventual economic boom that will happen before he leaves office, which will solidify his popularity and make Dems taking the WH again in 2016 that much more likely.
Click to expand...

Thats the thing, even if they hate romney and hold on to the house Obama will likely get these no matter opposition:
- A third supreme court justice
- Full implementation of Obamacare rendering it nearly impossible remove
- Credit for the economic growth that will be in full effect by the end of the next term
- Death of Bush tax cuts for the rich (He has no re-election to worry about, he has nothing to lose in a stand-off).
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
"Republicans Are Preparing For Four More Years Of Obama" by Eric Pianin at Business Insider

http://www.businessinsider.com/gop-preparing-for-4-more-years-of-obama-2012-9

You could almost hear the GOP tectonic plates shifting last week as President Obama appeared to solidify his lead over Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, and Republicans further down the food chain for the first time began imagining another four years of Democratic rule in the White House.
First, a handful of Republicans battling for election in close Senate races in Connecticut, Massachusetts and Nevada publicly distanced themselves from Romney’s surreptitiously videotaped comments that “47 percent” of Americans think of themselves as victims, pay no income taxes and are dependent on government support.

...

Most telling of all is that House and Senate Republicans have begun openly speculating on how Congress and the White House would address the looming fiscal cliff if Obama wins a second term. Even while they were packing their bags and preparing to head home to campaign through the Nov. 6 election, some GOP lawmakers were privately conferring with administration officials and spinning out possible scenarios for action in the event of a Romney loss.
Click to expand...

The base loonies lusting over the polls may be living in another world, but apparently those in DC are reading the writing on the wall.
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
Ecotic said:
I don't even understand the fervor from the right to challenge the polls. If I was a conservative I wouldn't want Romney to win anymore. This is a guy whose loved less than half as much as liberals tolerated John Kerry. And then if Romney wins you have to wait 8 years to get a new candidate assuming Romney runs for re-election, unless they seriously want to challenge the sitting President in the primaries.

Just stomach 4 more years of impassioned opposition and get someone you can love next time.
Click to expand...

They are worried about voter enthusiasm for republicans dropping, which could be catostrophic down ticket.
 
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