David Plouffe would be Lucious Fox.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down
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David Plouffe would be Lucious Fox.
Then who's David Axelrod?
Basileus777
Member
Why are we talking about SuperPacs and Citizen's United like it's something that can be fixed by Congress? The Supreme Court is the only real avenue to change it because a constitutional amendment is never going to happen in modern America. Beyond the 2/3 majority in both houses, you couldn't get 38 states to ratify a statement saying 2+2=4.
Maybe Scalia will have a heart attack within the next four years.
speculawyer
Member
Meh, that is not much of a threat.
But he should be reported to the DMV for not having a license plate.
Nate Cohn explains that the party ID differential is not due to 2008 levels of enthusiasm among Democrats, but rather Republican leaners switching to self-identifying as independents.
http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107813/no-the-polls-arent-oversampling-democrats
edit: Also worth noting about that Quinnipiac poll:
http://www.tnr.com/blog/107829/47-was-bad-romney-ryan-has-been-deadly
If Paul Ryan costs the GOP their advantage among seniors, it's going to be a blue November....
tnr said:
http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107813/no-the-polls-arent-oversampling-democrats
edit: Also worth noting about that Quinnipiac poll:
tnr said:
http://www.tnr.com/blog/107829/47-was-bad-romney-ryan-has-been-deadly
If Paul Ryan costs the GOP their advantage among seniors, it's going to be a blue November....
Manos: The Hans of Fate
Banned
I like...still he'd shit him self stupid most likely from a Secret Service visit.
Scalia will be shutting himself via machine and brain dead and will require Congress or some legal measure to remove him.
That ones not really that bad and could be done for any Pres...well Bush more than Cinton.
buuuuurn
speculawyer
Member
He would first need to have a heart.
And I get to miss it
All this hype only to realize the debate is on a Wednesday, my late working night. Ugh.
Manos: The Hans of Fate
Banned
TiVo. It's not worth messing with the schedule or taking a vacation day for. Besides I thought you did design work, can't you stream it or at least just for a liveblog with updates from it?And I get to miss it
All this hype only to realize the debate is on a Wednesday, my late working night. Ugh.
obama's going to flail around like the t1000 at the end of terminator 2 without his teleprompter. romney's going to destroy him.
Jim Messina or David Plouffe
BotoxAgent
Member
I am too nervous/scared to watch the debates. I'll just be catching the live PoliGAF commentary as it happens--which I find more entertaining and less stressful
The thing about the debates is that Romney is definitely going to have a case of nerves out there, he's never been under this much pressure in his life. His advisers keep saying that he does better with his back against the wall but I don't know. He doesn't seem that resilient. Obama can probably fluster him.
Reading PoliGAF will probably be more stressful; people freak the fuck out over the smallest thing here like it will cause Romney to win with 400+ EVs.
Manos: The Hans of Fate
Banned
That said what if by some odd stroke of luck, he really does, and gives a commanding performance (humor me) what type of effect could it have on poll numbers?
polyh3dron
Banned
He's going to be just as loose with the facts and the constant changing of positions as he has in his entire campaign and it won't be too hard fro Obama to call him on it again and again and again.
I think he'll do good, maybe great.
BotoxAgent
Member
But just the sound of Romney's voice or any other GOPer just infuriates me. I'd rather deal with the likes of Kosmo, or Diablos freaking out---it's rather entertaining at this point.
Manos: The Hans of Fate
Banned
Could Obama get a question though where he might have to address something he doesn't want to, that might make him look bad, just because while right even it's massively unpopular?
which demographic will Romney target in the first debate? what color orange will he be wearing this time around? does Barrack Hussein Obama realize he created the new Ottoman Empire?
these are the penetrating questions i have leading into their first meeting.
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If Romney continues to follow his advisors, who've led him astray in nearly every major decision these past few months starting from his overseas trips right before the Olympics, I fully expect him to be aggressive and play right into Obama's smaller verbal jabs the entire night. It'll be akin to Romney's overreaction to Obama's slight about his lack of foreign policy experience. Romney followed that up immediately by taking an extremely aggressive stance on Egypt and Libya before facts of the diplomat's death were widely known. Imagine that happening in the course of minutes instead of several days.
This gunnabefun.
these are the penetrating questions i have leading into their first meeting.
--
If Romney continues to follow his advisors, who've led him astray in nearly every major decision these past few months starting from his overseas trips right before the Olympics, I fully expect him to be aggressive and play right into Obama's smaller verbal jabs the entire night. It'll be akin to Romney's overreaction to Obama's slight about his lack of foreign policy experience. Romney followed that up immediately by taking an extremely aggressive stance on Egypt and Libya before facts of the diplomat's death were widely known. Imagine that happening in the course of minutes instead of several days.
This gunnabefun.
speculawyer
Member
Is everyone trying to play the troll game now?
polyh3dron
Banned
It was a good troll though
speculawyer
Member
He'll do alright. He's a smart guy. He'll memorize a lot of talking points and spew them out.
But he'll be Rombot. That laugh. At least one or two things that us commoners wouldn't say.
NullPointer
Member
Take a shot whenever Obama says 'uh', 'look', or 'make no mistake'.
Nerves will be the least of my problems.
BotoxAgent
Member
Oblivion for sure.
Manos: The Hans of Fate
Banned
I have the Deluxe Digital Edition that came with a free hat in Team Fortress 2.
I think Romney's taken it too personally now. Much like with McCain back in 08, I think there's a part of Romney that can't believe he's losing to him.
Yeah, my profession is as a designer. I have one internship/freelance job during the day that I could probably have it on my computer, though I just started a few weeks ago so I'm pretty wary about doing anything like that yet. Usually I browse here on my phone during the day there. My full time job, though, is also as a marketing and design guy for a small company started by a friend of mine. I do most of my design work from home, but twice a week I go in when the business is open and help out with other stuff (mostly refereeing... it's a laser tag place and we have about 4-5 referees on at a time), or just do some design and other random stuff while I'm down there.
I don't have a DVR or anything, but I'm sure they'll replay it or something by the time I get back. Not a big deal, just kind of a bummer it had to be on Wednesday of all days
.Okay serious prediction time for the debates. I think both candidates will do well. However I think Romney will be perceived as the winner but not in dominant fashion. I think this because I don't think Romney will actually trip and fall, he will have some good, prepared one-liners, and the media need to keep him in the race for ratings sake. However acute political observers will note that while Romney's debate performance is good or acceptable it will not influence polls or change voters' minds on him.
To change voters' minds he doesn't need to attack the President, he needs an authentic, human moment. I don't think he's capable of that.
To change voters' minds he doesn't need to attack the President, he needs an authentic, human moment. I don't think he's capable of that.
A superficially commanding performance won't mean much. He can come across as smart, as relatable, as folksy, whatever; there's no way he overcomes the "this is what Mitt Romney says to your face, but this is what he says about you at private fundraisers" framing. He's still tied to Paul Ryan and Ryan's budget.
He needs a substantive win in order to make up real ground. He has to double down on his 47% comments and on the Ryan budget, and he has to sell that to the public. He wins if people come away from the debate not just thinking that Romney spoke well, but convinced that Obama actually has turned half the country into welfare queens and that Romney's plan for Medicare is the last hope we have of avoiding bankruptcy.
I don't think that's possible, but I think it's even more impossible for him to come up with positives that outweigh his negatives. He has to turn his negatives into positives.
Edit: Romney's only practical hope is for Obama to self-destruct. Romney should basically stop trying to defend himself and just press Obama in unexpected ways and hope for a major gaffe.
1st debate: close to a tie, but i'll give the edge to romney. would have been a blowout if not for the 47% comments.
2nd debate: ryan is younger and more energetic and wins over despite lies, lies, lies.
3rd debate: obama should come across as more natural versus romney in a town hall setting. he'll probably 'win' this one.
4th debate: obama's foreign policy success will be blunted by about two months of the middle east fighting over a trailer on youtube, but should come out the 'winner' because bin laden.
If we're making predictions? I think that both parties will be trying to play it relatively safe -- Romney may have debate experience, but frankly, he's not that good at going on the attack; Obama would rather just not lose. I think there's about a 30% chance that Obama will bait Romney into saying something incredibly stupid again and ending up making the whole evening about his gaffe. If he doesn't, I have a feeling he'll be declared the winner (by default), but he still won't get a bounce in the polls, and Nate Silver will do a whole article about it.
edit: That's for the first debate. I think that the second debate will be a frustrating morass and nobody will look that good; Romney will definitely do something stupid in the town hall debate, no question; and the foreign policy debate will be Romney going after Obama for apologizing for America and Obama just saying that Romney has no idea what being the President requires, which is an argument Obama will win.
If Romney makes a really good showing in the debates I think he'll pick up three points or so, but I don't think it'll really put him back in contention.
matthewwhatever
Member
Enh, he's good enough at debates that it wouldn't hurt him too much. He'd just go into professor mode, and give a rambling, long-winded answer. It looks a little bad at the time (thinking back to the 2008 primary debates), but it never produces much that can be used against him.
Romney has much more to fear, I think. When he gets flustered or tries to improvise, he says dumb stuff -- i.e. doubling Gitmo, betting Rick Perry $10k, saying he can't have illegals because he's running for President. And that's not even counting the dumb, presumably scripted stuff he's known to say. It seems to happen when he gets worked up or excited...and if he's going into the debates all pumped up, that could make for a goldmine of gaffes.
Personally, I'm hoping he accidentally calls Obama "Boy" at some point. Not that I think he's secretly racist or anything, it just seems like something he might accidentally say.
I wonder if Romney will repeat his stupid Welfare attack during the debate. I think he should watch out for that one. The media will want to jump on his ass for that. I don't think they like the audacity he has for keeping up that attack despite them trying to say it's a complete lie. I just wonder if something's going to happen like what happened with Ryan's RNC speech.
I am pretty sure Romney is going to use the first debate now to try to soften his image; I expect things like 'Obama is a nice guy, but his policies have clearly failed. I have a plan to ensure that the middle class actually prospers. Under Obama, the median income for Americans has shrunk dramatically. Is this the kind of recovery he promised? He meant well, but it's time for a change.'
I don't think he'll be harsh at all, because of how high his negatives are. If they go any higher he'll basically be as radioactive as uranium.
I don't think he'll be harsh at all, because of how high his negatives are. If they go any higher he'll basically be as radioactive as uranium.
Obama will be the same old Obama.
Romney will probably be torn between being on the attack to rally the base and wanting to come off as amiable to win undecideds and swing voters. And if he bombs his next line of attack will be "Obama is the same as Bush" since they might as well hurl the kitchen sink at Obama.
Romney will probably be torn between being on the attack to rally the base and wanting to come off as amiable to win undecideds and swing voters. And if he bombs his next line of attack will be "Obama is the same as Bush" since they might as well hurl the kitchen sink at Obama.
Yeah, I think this is likely. It has the added benefit that it's tough for Obama to rebut without going on the offensive, which he doesn't like doing.
Romney would need a miracle for 3 points, he could not even muster 2 for HIS convention lol
Well, Manos did say commanding performance. I put 3 points basically at the absolute edge of possibility -- if he's really successful at reinventing himself and gets all the pundits talking about how he's changed the game, he could get three points. Pretty unlikely.
David Incorporated Esq.
Member
I'm beginning to think that the GOP recognizes they don't have a shot so they're just going to use the rest of the campaign as a litmus test to see how much bullshit they can get away with.
Romney will do fine. He's been actively trying to soften his image lately and he'll get that across in the debate. The lowered expectations/ability to offer more specifics will help and Obama really gains nothing from being aggressive since he's in the lead. (that and the media will pump the underdog, as always).
That being said, I don't think it'll make any appreciable difference. The Ryan pick, the conventions, the dismal job reports, nothing has done anything to shake the course of things and the debates (barring some disaster) won't either.
That being said, I don't think it'll make any appreciable difference. The Ryan pick, the conventions, the dismal job reports, nothing has done anything to shake the course of things and the debates (barring some disaster) won't either.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
As I mentioned earlier, anything short of Romney accidentally lighting himself on fire during the first debate will likely result in a modest uptick in the polls for him. He essentially could not possibly be doing worse in the last few weeks, and a chance to look basically competent at the debate--which he probably will--can only help.
If you're asking about a scenario where Romney roflstomps over Obama, hypothetically--honestly, that requires two different candidates than we actually have. I just don't see anything that lopsided being possible, both from their general demeanors and debate tactics, and the issues in the campaign so far. The same debate technique that keeps Obama from being a firebrand in them also makes it difficult to lay a glove on him.
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