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[Cloudy]

Since Romney knows he's trailing, I wonder if he's going to come out of the gate being aggressive and just attacking Obama like McCain did.

I don't think that'll help him at all. Romney came off as a mean guy in some of those GOP debates (Especially that one time he was giving it to Gingrich). It didn't hurt him there cos no one liked any of those jackasses..

 

[johnsmith]

Romney is the most disliked presidential candidate in recent history. Wow.

 

[TacticalFox88]

Also, I think Obama is going to be very conservative in the debates. He is not going to stick his neck out. He'll just do average because he is ahead in the polls and doesn't really need to do anything.

I pray he doesn't feel that way during the Foreign Policy debate.

That will be a golden opportunity to just lay down the smack down. AGAIN.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Also, I think Obama is going to be very conservative in the debates. He is not going to stick his neck out. He'll just do average because he is ahead in the polls and doesn't really need to do anything.

Maybe in the first two, but I feel like Obama will show up at the third with a lampshade on his head.

 

[AniHawk]

Since Romney knows he's trailing, I wonder if he's going to come out of the gate being aggressive and just attacking Obama like McCain did.

I don't think that'll help him at all. Romney came off as a mean guy in some of those GOP debates (Especially that one time he was giving it to Gingrich). It didn't hurt him there cos no one liked any of those jackasses..

i was watching msnbc earlier out of sheer curiosity (i never, ever watch cable news), but one thing they brought up was how they're being really nice to obama now, and i'm reminded of the recent ad talking about how obama cares about people. i think they're doing it to help look empathetic towards people who like obama, as well as setting up obama to look like an asshole if he decides or tries to tear romney a new one.

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

I disagree. Romney's bar is way higher than Obama's. Right now the narrative is that Romney's campaign is practically a dead carcass on the side of the road, and it would take a miracle to revive it. The narrative that the media will most assuredly go to after the debate is, "Was that enough to get the Romney campaign in contention again? Was that enough to shake things up and move the electorate? Can he win because of that debate?"

I don't think you have a grasp on how our media responds to presidential debates. When they give analysis they are not that open ended. What normally happens is that they present the two sides and point out where they think the candidates did a good job or bad. They don't talk about how a campaign is in shreds unless they already lean politically one way. That gives the impression that it is over. Also, Obama does have a higher bar. He is the president. He has to answer rightly or wrongly for what has happen in the last four years. All that is expect of Romney in the first debate is that he be competent and appear like he can be president. That is it. If there is any tightening in the polls afterwards, then the media is going to attribute it as a success for Romney. And I believe the polls are going to tighten. There is no way that Obama gets above 53 or 54 percent unless Romney has a complete meltdown.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Since Romney knows he's trailing, I wonder if he's going to come out of the gate being aggressive and just attacking Obama like McCain did.

I don't think that'll help him at all. Romney came off as a mean guy in some of those GOP debates (Especially that one time he was giving it to Gingrich). It didn't hurt him there cos no one liked any of those jackasses..

He's in a tough position, because his favorables are at historical lows for candidates (checking the chart johnsmith posted). So if he comes out too aggressive - if he comes across as the dick people think he is - then he loses. He needs to win the debate and restore his favorables. Very tough pickle he's in.

 

[speculawyer]

Romney is the most disliked presidential candidate in recent history. Wow.

He earned it. Partly literally with his millions . . . not that people resent the wealth but they resent him making so much by firing people and resent him paying a 13.9% tax rate.

And the 47% comment will probably be the story of the election that lives on in political lore. The guy shat on almost half the electorate. The election was probably over after that.


FFS, he is literally the only guy to have higher unfavorables than favorables. This election is so toast. That makes it really hard for him to get many more votes. I guess the best spin they can put on it is that it is GOPers that will vote for him that hate him.

 

[polyh3dron]

So apparently the Republican Media Talking Point du jour has been to talk up OBAMA'S legendary oratory and debating skill. They're saying that Obama will make the debate a 90 minute attack ad against him and going full preemptive persecution complex basically saying that even if Romney loses the debate which they're already acting like its a foregone conclusion, it's because poor Mittens got beat up on by the mean angry black man.

 

[jiggle]

oops

 

[Black Mamba]

I'm confused. Right about what?

I said Ryan's Medicare plan would hurt him in Florida including among the elderly. So far I've been right and you wrong. Fess up like the lion fan you are.

 

[Jackson50]

Romney is going to be perceived as the winner of the first debate barring any major gaffe. It will be the first time he has been elevated to that position and will appear right next to the president himself. That alone carries weight with some. As also mention the bar for Obama to clear will be higher than Romney's own. More is expected of the man in charge. The question we should be asking is he going to do something dramatic to shake the race up?

But as this election has proven once again, it is really hard to unseat an incumbent that is running, especially in the modern era. Once you are in, you have to really mess up for people to want to get rid of you. Let's take a look at the last 100 years:

Taft - Lost because his party was split by Roosevelt.
Hoover - Lost because he failed to ease the Depression and stood by his moral beliefs in volunteerism versus having the government run a deficit to help.
Carter - Was perceived as weak due to the hostage crisis. Oversaw the first energy crisis, and after calling it a malaise fired his whole cabinet. This does not inspire confidence. A recession and inflation hit right when he runs for reelection. Is undermined by his own party in a primary battle.
George H. W. Bush - Should have won reelection, but also had a recession on his reelection year. He also pissed off a lot of Republicans by breaking his pledge of no new taxes.

Out of the 18 presidents we have had since 1900, only 4 have been defeated in reelection attempts. And the main reason is because the economy tanked on their watch. It is surprising that Obama is doing so well today. I would attribute that mainly due to the public still blaming Bush for what happen. Another part of it is that we live in a more partisan time, and Obama has a higher floor of support than previous presidents. It also helps that, unlike Carter and George H. W. Bush, he isn't running against a talented politician. So it is never a good idea to bet against a sitting president winning reelection. People are willing to accept the devil they know versus the one they don't.

That is the cardinal reason. The economy exerts a strong effect on vote share. Specifically, economic performance proximate to the election. For each candidate who lost, excluding Taft, they experienced monthly job losses in the election year. And that's why Obama's performed well despite the high overall level of unemployment. The trajectory, although often modest, has been positive for a while. Were there evidence of recent contraction, he would probably be losing. Although, I want to be clear that the economy is far from the only variable of consequence. War, for example in 1968 and 2004, can exert an appreciable effect on the outcome. But the economy consistently predominates.

 

[Cloudy]

i was watching msnbc earlier out of sheer curiosity (i never, ever watch cable news), but one thing they brought up was how they're being really nice to obama now, and i'm reminded of the recent ad talking about how obama cares about people. i think they're doing it to help look empathetic towards people who like obama, as well as setting up obama to look like an asshole if he decides or tries to tear romney a new one.

Nah, Romney's negatives are just so high that him personally attacking Obama hurts more than it helps. Notice that Ryan still attacks Obama

 

[Gotchaye]

Romney destroyed Gingrich in the pivotal debate after SC, when he needed it the most. Granted Gingrich is not Obama, but Gingrich is certainly a formidable debater. Some might argue Gingrich was hurt by the crowd that night, which wasn't allowed to participate/cheer, but overall Romney came out aggressive and effectively boxed him in.

No one expects Obama to bomb. But just as a boxer behind on points is perfectly capable of knocking out a better opponent, Romney could be dangerous. Debates are often remembered for one moment; that makes things quite unpredictable so I don't think it's logical to assume Obama will simply stomp Romney.

Romney's problem is that he'll have to talk about the 47% comment, and will look like a fool during a health care debate. To make matters worse Obama or the moderators might ask him how he differs from Bush.

Yes to the bolded. Again, it matters that the people on the stage have histories and positions outside of the debate. A smart eighth-grader with a few weeks of preparation could out-debate 2012 Gingrich. 2012 Romney isn't much harder to deal with.

Maybe Romney "wins" the first debate in the media's sense of "looks more comfortable up there", but that's not going to do him any good. A point or two in the polls is not sufficient. Obama can sigh and look at his watch all he likes and it's not going to play into any unfortunate narratives. People who are already for Obama aren't going to care, and it's not going to do much for Romney's unfavorables. Voters have largely made up their minds, they like Obama, and any real game-changer has to be mostly substantive. Likeability isn't enough when you're tied to Paul Ryan - just ask Paul Ryan.

"Winning" isn't enough. Romney needs to win. He needs to do what Clinton did at the DNC, which isn't really possible.

 

[speculawyer]

I said Ryan's Medicare plan would hurt him in Florida including among the elderly. So far I've been right and you wrong. Fess up like the lion fan you are.

I'm a bit surprised by that . . . those idiots voted a Medicare fraud criminal into their Governor's mansion.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I said Ryan's Medicare plan would hurt him in Florida including among the elderly. So far I've been right and you wrong. Fess up like the lion fan you are.

I don't remember arguing Ryan was a good choice, outside of the short term increase in base enthusiasm.

 

[Mario]

So apparently the Republican Media Talking Point du jour has been to talk up OBAMA'S legendary oratory and debating skill. They're saying that Obama will make the debate a 90 minute attack ad against him and going full preemptive persecution complex basically saying that even if Romney loses the debate which they're already acting like its a foregone conclusion, it's because poor Mittens got beat up on by the mean angry black man.

Bu.. but teleprompter-in-chief? 57 States? Always apologizing?

Such pre-emptive damage control conflicting with prior narratives is entertaining.

 

[Black Mamba]

Msnbc will say Obama won he debate and ended the election.

Fox will say mitt won it and the race is back on.

Half of CNN will say Obama did enough, half will say Romney did enough to stay alive.

And so it is written and so it shall come to pass.

 

[johnsmith]

This The American Conservative site is pretty good. I've read a couple of articles, and them seem to be of the more old school Republican style. The kind that won in the North East.

 

[Black Mamba]

I don't remember arguing Ryan was a good choice, outside of the short term increase in base enthusiasm.

No, but you argued that the Medicare stuff wouldn't hurt Romney and that the elderly vote won't change.

I really don't want to bother digging up the posts.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

I'd love Romney to win the debates. Unskewedpolls would have to have some truly ridiculous results (like Romney +20) if so. I'd love to see how they justify that.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I'd love Romney to win the debates. Unskewedpolls would have to have some truly ridiculous results (like Romney +20) if so. I'd love to see how they justify that.

I'd more like to see them justify why the "unskewed" polls have Romney up 8 when Obama wins by 8.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Kickin' back a couple pages...

Closer in NV than I thought, further in NH than I thought.

Looks like my BOLD PREDICTION isn't nearly as bold anymore.

(...That and the 538 Nowcast has Bams winning NC now.)

 

[speculawyer]

Bu.. but teleprompter-in-chief? 57 States? Always apologizing?

Such pre-emptive damage control conflicting with prior narratives is entertaining.

We have always been at war with East Asia.

 

[polyh3dron]

Bu.. but teleprompter-in-chief? 57 States? Always apologizing?

Such pre-emptive damage control conflicting with prior narratives is entertaining.

Yeah the funniest thing about the GOP right now is that so many of their concerted attack efforts against Obama conflict with each other.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Msnbc will say Obama won he debate and ended the election.

Fox will say mitt won it and the race is back on.

Half of CNN will say Obama did enough, half will say Romney did enough to stay alive.

And so it is written and so it shall come to pass.

It's the insta polls that matter. That's what sealed things last time.

 

[polyh3dron]

It's the insta polls that matter. That's what sealed things last time.

 

[Forever]

It's the insta polls that matter. That's what sealed things last time.

 

[eBay Huckster]

It's the

Spoiler

combo

Spoiler

break

that matter. That's what

Spoiler

seal

ed things last time.

 

[polyh3dron]

I HAVE INSTAPOLLS IN MY RECTUM

 

[Forever]

It's the insta polls that matter. That's what sealed things last time.

You can't edit your post, that's cheating.

 

[eBay Huckster]

You can't

Spoiler

change

your

Spoiler

game

, that's

Spoiler

good news for McCain

.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Screw you guys I am going home

Well actually for a hair cut, then home.

 

[Aaron Strife]

It's the cellphone polls that matter. That's what let Feingold win last time.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Spoiler

I really need to stop going on these Tenth Doctor binges.

 

[Mario]

Yeah the funniest thing about the GOP right now is that so many of their concerted attack efforts against Obama conflict with each other.

The only way they are going to be able to reconcile anything post election with an Obama win is by positing a rigged result. Expect the volume on alledged voter intimidation, voter fraud, bribery, ballot mishandling, ballot formatting bias, chads, miscounting etc to be way louder than 2008.

The only way it all hangs together is if "the American People" had their election stolen.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Spoiler

I really need to stop going on these Tenth Doctor binges.

NC as a light blue is so wonderful.

Would love to see Missouri and Arizona flip as well.

 

[eBay Huckster]

NC as a light blue is so wonderful.

Would love to see Missouri and Arizona flip as well.

Somehow, Montana's ahead of Arizona in Nate's model in terms of Obama's win percentage.

(Would be funny as hell to see all three of those states flip, actually)

 

[PhoenixDark]

The only way they are going to be able to reconcile anything post election with an Obama win is by positing a rigged result. Expect the volume on alledged voter intimidation, voter fraud, bribery, ballot mishandling, ballot formatting bias, chads, miscounting etc to be way louder than 2008.

The only way it all hangs together is if "the American People" had their election stolen.

Yup. 2008 is either explained away as a fluke win because Americans weren't told who the real Obama was, or a stolen election. This time I think the right's concensus will be that the election was clearly stolen (if Obama wins). After all, only a fool could vote for him, no one supports his policies, 2010 proved he was going to be a one term president, etc

Consider their poll nonsense: it's a self proving argument, at least for them. If the polls are proven right then the media succeeded in convincing conservatives to stay home, and the right has already established that equals voter suppression - which equals voter fraud. If Romney pulls off a comeback and ties in the polls? Fox and company will be the first to trumpet the news, no longer focused on the poll methodology

 

[AniHawk]

Somehow, Montana's ahead of Arizona in Nate's model in terms of Obama's win percentage.

(Would be funny as hell to see all three of those states flip, actually)

if mt, mo, az, and nc all go blue, he'd have more electoral votes than last time, making up for a lack of indiana and omaha, and all the electoral votes that have gone to texas and other red states.

also, i'm just sorta assuming he already has nv, va, fl, and oh.

 

[NullPointer]

Yeah the funniest thing about the GOP right now is that so many of their concerted attack efforts against Obama conflict with each other.

One of the main reasons I've looked forward to these debates.

When subject to measurement he'll be forced to collapse his wave form.

 

[jiggle]

any explanation for purple montana?

 

[Aaron Strife]

Somehow, Montana's ahead of Arizona in Nate's model in terms of Obama's win percentage.

(Would be funny as hell to see all three of those states flip, actually)

It'd probably be easier to win just because there are less people to win over. I think he's polling about the same in both states.

 

[Forever]

NC as a light blue is so wonderful.

Would love to see Missouri and Arizona flip as well.

Obama is not going to carry Missouri in any reasonable scenario, remember this is the state of Todd Akin.

Arizona sounds the most promising of the three.

 

[Diablos]

Bill Clinton plays M83

God dammit, this is so fucking cool.

edit: and Bams carrying Missouri is like Mitt carrying NH. Fuhgetaboutit.

 

[Dominican Power]

 

[phosphor112]

Are you guys talking about the UN General Assembly in here? I can't find a thread for it.

 

[worldrunover]

Yeah the funniest thing about the GOP right now is that so many of their concerted attack efforts against Obama conflict with each other.

"How dare he cut military spending!"

"The deficit is out of control!"

"How dare he cut $700billion from Medicare!"

"The deficit is out of control!"

"I'm going to repeal Obamacare!"

"The deficit is out of control!"

It really makes no sense.

 

[Captain Tuttle]

Big PoliGAF lurker here. Going to see Mittens this morning at Valley Forge Military Academy in suburban Philly. My wife signed me up to get a ticket at about 4 but put in the wrong e-mail address. Tried again at 11:00 last night with the right address and got a ticket. Point is I don't think these things are moving quickly. I expect that they'll be alot of cadets there filling up seats but we'll see.

Wish me luck, I'm going in.

 

[codhand]

Romney only did well in the primary debates when he did three things:

1. Stand there not looking like a maniac on a stage full of maniacs.
2. Give a prepared one-liner without fumbling the delivery.
3. Outflank his opponents by going further right than them.

Now, in a debate with only two participants, just standing there not looking like a maniac doesn't accomplish much. The one-linera might stick but it won't humanize him to attack the President and that's really what he needs right now. Lastly, going right in the general is a bad move given where he already stands with the electorate.

That said, he will be the "winner" of the first debate.