I know, but it doesn't mean they are infallible. I'm going to wait until the next NBC poll to confirm.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down
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I know, but it doesn't mean they are infallible. I'm going to wait until the next NBC poll to confirm.
That's one point since their last poll three weeks ago. The main thing that's weird to me about this poll is that Romney's 47% comments didn't change his numbers at all (45 in both polls).
Sarcasm?
Guileless
Temp Banned for Remedial Purposes
Pres. Obama went on record opposing a bill outlawing sex-selective abortion, which is illegal in Canada, the UK, France, and Germany. That is an arguably radical position since if you asked people in a poll, a huge majority would say they were against the practice. That ad is not crazy.
The Librarian
Banned
That actually says alot does it not?
RobotChant
Member
Probably not a lot of folks out there who want to go to bat for Romney.
Not a problem. We already don't take him seriously.
Guileless
Temp Banned for Remedial Purposes
Democratic Party interest group politics and fundraising.
Again, many countries have banned the practice without descending into Handmaid's Tale-style dystopias.
British couples flying to US for banned baby sex selection
The primary process is actually intended to expose the candidates' flaws. Whichever candidate has the best responses to those flaws then gets nominated for the general election. If your primary opponents did a good enough job, your general election opponent will then have little left to throw at you.
The Republicans had Herman Cain leading the primaries for a while, until he bombed out due to a number of sexual harassment cases coming to light that he was unable to get through. Rick Perry was leading the primaries for a while until it was shown that he had difficulty stringing complete sentences together. Newt Gingrich also lead for a while, which slowly eroded due to being an asshole to everyone. The process is intended to knock those people out.
The main problem this time around is that the Republicans simply didn't have any good candidates. They tried out everything and eventually settled for the least self-destructive of the bunch, which wasn't saying much. Normally when a candidate gets shat on that much without reasonable responses, someone better ends up getting nominated.
I think that's just the way the PM job works. We don't have big fights over who the majority party is going to put up as the Speaker of the House. I'm pretty sure that there isn't a big public election for PM.
But I think other countries that have an independent executive do something like this. France has a long drawn-out process that goes from a field of many candidates all the way down to just a few, and many of the ones that get kicked out probably end up endorsing ones that stay in.
RustyNails
Member
I'm seriously concerned for the health and well being of Diablos, PhoenixDark and Cartoon_Soldier if an Ohio poll shows race being tied at 46%-47% in favor of Romney.
I'm fine.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I'll be ok, trust me. My life and thoughts aren't dominated by concern for Barack Obama
cartoon_soldier
Member
I don't expect that to happen. I do think the PPP poll is a better representation of where OH stands than the others we have had this week. What will upset me is Romney's lies during the debate penetrate through causing the election to be close.
The different is clear, PPP is D+4 while the others were D+8-9. So, it becomes a turnout election. 2008 was D+8, if that is the electorate, certainly OH will be a blow out this time.
Actually, if any of the swing states do 2008 turnout numbers, we should see them firmly in Obama column again.
Party infighting is a good thing. The less that's hidden the better. The primaries are the...primary way for the members of that party to exert influence over it.
I get all that. Just seems to start each candidate at a lower bar in terms of public opinion and "wastes" resources.
Again, I don't have a good alternative.
The Librarian
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You sure? Because this shit is so tight.
And it's getting tighter!
Yeah, it's more dominated by inventing weird ways to make up stuff about him.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Romney is winning 60% of Latinos in that poll btw
Hahahaha
That's how you know its a good poll.
No candidate trailing in the polls by as much as Romney is has won since Truman (and those were not good polls).
Nobody with net negative favorability at this stage in the campaign has won in the history of net favorability.
Nobody has ever won the Presidency while being a Mormon! Although in fairness nobody has ever been reelected as a black dude either.
There just isn't really a meaningful sample size for claims of this nature yet. Check back in fifty years.
Why?
Most of your posts over this election read as if you're in the process of having a stroke.
Hobbestetrician
Member
They unskewed it right away allowing the Unskew guy to further unskew it to unveil the real story.
cartoon_soldier
Member
No Presidents have been re-elected with a 8+ UE % for a long ass time either.
No black president has ever been re-elected.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Don't worry. Hillary is going to be fine.
He has to get his drive-by conservative post in before disappearing. Let him be.
Do you think she might need to get a facelift for the 2016 campaign? She looks a lot older these days. I wish politics weren't about optics but they totally are.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Her face looks fine, I'm not sure what you're talking about
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
StopMakingSense
Member
PhoenixDark
Banned
And they happened to talk to 10 who do not represent the majority of Latinoas in Ohio. Given that, what's to say they talked to non-Hispanic Ohioans who represent what's actually going on in the state?
This just expands upon my point.
There are a million things that are unprecedented about this election, but there are a lot of unprecedented things about nearly every election.
...so...wouldn't you then reference the consensus of other polls to determine what the more likely result is, and assume the poll should be shifted in that direction?
Eh.
Well maybe people won't care. You know exactly what you're getting with Hillary.
RustyNails
Member
StopMakingSense
Member
You are actually making the unskewedpolls argument/logic/statistics reasoning right here.
I thought we were just trolling PD, but man, she does need a different haircut. What's going on right there.
cartoon_soldier
Member
The thing I am not liking in the PPP poll is Obama only having a 49-45 advantage on foreign policy. I think the Libya attack and Administration response causes some issues here, and of course GOP has no shame exploiting it.
The great part now is that Dem enthusiasm is above Rep in almost every swing state poll we are seeing:
Conventional pundit wisdom be damned.
The great part now is that Dem enthusiasm is above Rep in almost every swing state poll we are seeing:
Conventional pundit wisdom be damned.
Half and half
Member
Man it's feast or famine up in here. I think the solution is more polls.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Eh.
Well maybe people won't care. You know exactly what you're getting with Hillary.
Lookism
edit: I like her with the long hair btw (in the post above)
Guileless
Temp Banned for Remedial Purposes
What do you expect him to say, "cynical political calculations?" That approach would really shorten press conferences on both sides of the aisle.
Mgoblue201
Won't stop picking the right nation
This is a stat that suffers from lack of sample size, since the unemployment rate has rarely risen above 8% since the end of the Great Depression. In fact, I'm pretty sure no election in that period has taken place with unemployment exceeding 8%. It's not immediately obvious that an incumbent will have great difficulty being elected during such high unemployment either. It seems likely that many voters do understand that Obama inherited a mess and are willing to give him time. Furthermore, the economic situation has been terrible for years, yet Romney hasn't led in the polls since late 2011. As long as the current economic trends continue, the effects of high unemployment have already been factored into the polls. Nate Silver's model makes clear that good or bad economic data at this point will only shift Romney's chances a few percent either way. Therefore, it's clear that Romney, not Obama, is the one who must overcome historical precedence to win in November, because he has much more to overcome.
Yes, I can think of few better approaches to analyzing media spin than to arbitrarily assume everything everybody says is a lie in favor of your own narrative.
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