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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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H

HylianTom

Banned
Cheers to Manos!

My partner and I have a nice gun collection goin' at this point, and I'll think fondly of him during our next trip to the range.

...

And Dax has me nailed down pretty well.
Aside from "oh, their delicious tears," I'd add: "no matter who wins, we're headed for rough/interesting times. Prepare."
 
empty vessel

empty vessel

Member
Guileless said:
I don't think its reasonable for the Obama Administration to claim that it opposes a law because it would lead to government intrusion into medical decisions, especially when European one percenters travel here to exploit it because its illegal over there. Supporting this law, whatever its merits (I haven't read it), would undermine the "War Against Women" narrative.
Click to expand...

This is not a real issue in the US, and Republican advocacy for additional limitations on the medical freedom of women does not suggest that Republicans are not waging a war against women.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
codhand said:
image.php


Off-topic, just saw, Lawrence of Arabia restoration at the Ny Film Fest, freaking amazing. ;)
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Freaking amazing? More like THE greatest movie ever made. I've watched it over half a dozen times, can't wait for the restoration.
 
C

Chumly

Member
quadriplegicjon said:
I responded to your previous post, but I guess you did not see it. The article you posted was about in vitro fertilization. If European women are flying here in order to get abortions for gender reasons, can you please provide some legitimate information about that? thanks.
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So is guileless going to respond or is he just going to leave us with drive by chain email garbage
 
Z

Zzoram

Member
It's impossible to enforce a ban on sex selection abortion because there is no way to know the difference between sex selection or just not wanting a baby at that time. It's a pointless law and would lead to a lot of headaches.

It IS possible to enforce a ban on sex selection for IVF and that is illegal in most Western countries.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
I don't think guileless is bad people (just wrong a lot), I remember arguing with him about the build up to the Iraq war in 2003. Good times.

I feel so fucking old right now :(
 
C

Chichikov

Member
RustyNails said:
Freaking amazing? More like THE greatest movie ever made. I've watched it over half a dozen times, can't wait for the restoration.
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Word.
I already saw it in 70mm, and I can't wait to snub my nose at the 4k version because "the pallete look mechanical" or some similarly important sounding bullshit.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
I do worry in the back of my mind about the race tightening. Debates - and media reaction/narrative coming out of them - can be unpredictable, so the possibility of the race going back down to a one or two-point affair doesn't seem too far-fetched.

That said, when Obama and Romney are fighting over states like North Carolina and Arizona, I feel pretty good. Obama, at this polling peak, is looking at anywhere between 315 and 350EVs. Even if he were to fall in the national polls a few points, he's got a good amount of cushion, and the Electoral College deck remains stacked in his favor.

Thus, I remain confident.. but I can't bust anyone's chops for voicing worry. Election Day can't come quickly enough.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
HamPster PamPster said:
I like to think Bish sacrificed the 48 posters from the creeper thread to bring EV back
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But we should know that he didn't need to sacrifice those posters. In the system we have he could have just brought EV back. The mods can ban and unban as they see fit. Imagine, if you will, a computer with a button. Now, an unban is nothing but hitting that button and changing some stuff on a computer screen. Then voila, someone is unbanned. A ban is nothing more than the same in reverse. If we see the system in this way we can freely choose to ban or unban regardless of how many posters we have overall. In fact, by banning that many he's just taking away from the posting economy.

What I mean to say is STOP MOD AUSTERITY!

Modern Mod Theory
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
So why didn't this happen? A closer look at some of that same polling data helps explain it. The most dramatic figures come from the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, which routinely asks voters about the news they are hearing about the economy. In August of 2011, Americans of all parties said the news was mostly bad, with only minor differences showing between members of different political parties.

A year later, a survey taken in early September found a "record partisan gap." A full 60% of Republicans said they were hearing “mostly bad” news. Only 15% of Democrats reported the same. And independent voters split on the question, with 36% saying they were hearing mostly bad news.

It’s not just a matter of what voters are hearing. Gallup’s tracking of Americans’ reported confidence in the economy has also seen a dramatic divergence: Democrats’ confidence reached a new high in a survey released September 25; Republicans’ reached a record low.
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enhanced-buzz-12282-1349056573-0.jpg

http://www.buzzfeed.com/bensmith/how-the-economy-collapsed-as-a-political-issue

So, basically Fox news, Rush, Hannity, etc are telling their people the economy is all bad and everyone else is being realistic.

I could have told them this without polling. :p
 
D

Diablos

Member
GhaleonEB said:
It's a one-point move from PPP's last. I never thought Obama was up 8-9 points in Ohio; 4-5 feels about right.
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Yes, I know.

Regarding me being bipolar or something over the latest Ohio PPP poll: -_-

Why am I getting jumped on for a. not being an optimistic yuppie and b. simply stating that it is tightening (even if by a minimal amount) before the first debate? If Romney gained one point today that doesn't really matter, but if he nets two more after the debate it does help him a lot. Just because I freak out (sometimes) does not mean that I think it's time to panic, I am merely stating that this isn't over until it's over.

I was listening to MSNBC on Sirius last week, and I swear, a lot of them are acting like Obama already won ffs.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politic...expectations-but-the-race-itself-stays-close/

Obama 49-47 nationally, among LVs.
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wow, 49 - 47 seems like a high number this early. That leaves only 4 percent undecided. Still, Obama inching on 50 already. Last 7 polls have him at 48-50.

welp guys, it's over, one national poll has it closer than all the other national polls
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RCP has it at +4. Ras at +2. So agai, within the error comfortably.

Yes, I know.

Regarding me being bipolar or something over today's PPP poll: -_-

Why am I getting jumped on for a. not being an optimistic yuppie and b. simply stating that it is tightening (even if by a minimal amount) before the first debate? If Romney gained one point today that doesn't really matter, but if he nets two more after the debate it does help him. Just because I freak out (sometimes) does not mean that I think it's time to panic, I am merely stating that this isn't over until it's over.

I was listening to MSNBC, on Sirius last week, and I swear, a lot of them are acting like Obama already won ffs.
Click to expand...
'

Have you not read what I've written. This does not mean the race is tightening. In fact, Obama's lead could be expanding and you'd still get a result like this,.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Diablos said:
Yes, I know.

Regarding me being bipolar or something over today's PPP poll: -_-

Why am I getting jumped on for a. not being an optimistic yuppie and b. simply stating that it is tightening (even if by a minimal amount) before the first debate? If Romney gained one point today that doesn't really matter, but if he nets two more after the debate it does help him a lot. Just because I freak out (sometimes) does not mean that I think it's time to panic, I am merely stating that this isn't over until it's over.

I was listening to MSNBC on Sirius last week, and I swear, a lot of them are acting like Obama already won ffs.
Click to expand...
4 points this poll vs. 5 points last poll certainly doesn't mean it's "tightening." That's noise. And let's be honest, the only people expecting Romney to gain from the debates are the people who want Romney to gain. Early voting has already started in many states, it might be too late for him.

ABC poll usually shows a sharper distinction between LV and RV, where Obama leads by 5, than other pollsters. During presidential elections the RV sample is more accurate simply thanks to higher turnout.

PhoenixDark said:
Polls continue to tighten even after the 47% video lmao
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You know, as much as I hate raining on your parade, their last poll had Obama only leading by 1. But hey, keep reaching for that rainbow!

Nate's got Obama at 85% to win in the forecast. I wonder what Nate's track record is on predicting box office gross of James Cameron films.
 
M

Mario

Sidhe / PikPok
Black Mamba said:
So, basically Fox news, Rush, Hannity, etc are telling their people the economy is all bad and everyone else is being realistic.

I could have told them this without polling. :p
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Yeah, Fox News "journalists" like Stuart Varney have a consistent knack from delivering news like stock market climbs, falling crude prices, or positive job numbers throwing a "but" in there, then putting some bad news spin on it, and closing with "because of the failed policies of the Obama administration". Every single time. There is never any good news.

Varney is on the list with Hannity and Gretchen Carlson as the top 3 Fox News personalities that pretty much make me change the channel instantly (and remind me I should never have been on that channel in the first place).
 
D

Diablos

Member
Aaron Strife said:
4 points this poll vs. 5 points last poll certainly doesn't mean it's "tightening." That's noise. And let's be honest, the only people expecting Romney to gain from the debates are the people who want Romney to gain. Early voting has already started in many states, it might be too late for him.
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Yes, it might be. But we don't know for sure yet.

If we're talking about +4-5 Obama more or less, -1 could suggest that it is tightening, especially if it continues (i.e. Romney debate performance helps him a little more).

Also, how can you say the only people expecting him to gain from the debates are people who want him to? A lot of swing voters will be paying attention, if he can somehow strike a chord with these people he might make an impression on enough of them. Never say never. This is not over yet. We have three Presidential debates and one VP debate. A lot of things could happen in and outside of that box.

Dax01 said:
To date, the 2012 elections in PoliGAF summed up:

*snip*
Click to expand...
Not bad, not bad.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Diablos said:
Why am I getting jumped on for a. not being an optimistic yuppie and b. simply stating that it is tightening (even if by a minimal amount) before the first debate? If Romney gained one point today that doesn't really matter, but if he nets two more after the debate it does help him a lot. Just because I freak out (sometimes) does not mean that I think it's time to panic, I am merely stating that this isn't over until it's over.
Click to expand...

Because your understanding of how to interpret new polls is lacking. Here are all of Public Policy Polling's polls in Ohio in September -- +5, +6, +4. August? +3. July? +3. So these polls are consistent with a point or two of gain in September. Here are the last five polls in Ohio: +4, +9, +10, +8, +0.8. Notice the enormous variance? This is why it's not useful to rely on a single poll. That +9 was literally one day ago! Do you really think there was a five point swing from Saturday to Sunday?

Note that Nate has already added this poll to his forecast and it increased the chance of Obama winning. What does that suggest to you?
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Diablos said:
Yes, it might be. But we don't know for sure yet.

If we're talking about +4-5 Obama more or less, -1 could suggest that it is tightening, especially if it continues (i.e. Romney debate performance helps him a little more).
Click to expand...
Could suggest it's tightening. Considering there was another poll out today that had him up by 9, I doubt it. 1 point isn't very significant unless it literally is a 1 point race.

Also, how can you say the only people expecting him to gain from the debates are people who want him to? A lot of swing voters will be paying attention, if he can somehow strike a chord with these people he might make an impression on enough of them. Never say never. This is not over yet. We have three Presidential debates and one VP debate. A lot of things could happen in and outside of that box.
Click to expand...
Romney had a week entirely to himself and got no bump. Here he has to share the stage with Obama and the best-case scenario (for Romney) is that they tie, worst-case is Obama figuratively (or literally) pantses him on stage and everyone laughs at him.

I mean, seriously. It's MITT ROMNEY.
 
D

Diablos

Member
pigeon: It suggests that Obama has the momentum in OH. I'm not an idiot, I know how to read polls. Holy shit.

If we're talking about a 4-5 point race in OH, and Romney is one less point into the red, then it can potentially help if he has an unanticipated strong showing in the debates.

I'm not trying to dispute what the polls have been saying; I'm trying to be the guy at the table reminding everyone that one month can prove to be an eternity in US politics, especially during the Presidential election season, and while it's great to be optimistic, it's not great to walk around beating your chest as though there's no way whatsoever that Obama could lose this thing.

I think he's going to win, but I'm going to stop short of outright celebrating in advance, because it's never good to get cocky at the last second.

Aaron: yeah, I'll admit -- this coming from me being "UH OH, MITT" as Dax painted me as being, that he totally wasted a fuckton of political opportunities. I blame the party. His campaign must be a living hell behind closed doors.

Or maybe Mitt really is this fucking stupid. All these years (since 2004 really) I thought he'd be a formidable candidate to go up against.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Oh, EV's back? Oddly, around the same time that Manos was banned...

Is this like that Full Metal Alchemist principle? The law of equivalent exchange? :O

Dax01 said:
To date, the 2012 elections in PoliGAF summed up:"
Click to expand...

This requires some back patting, stat.
 
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