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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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pigeon

Banned
Polls continue to tighten even after the 47% video. Something is happening

This is silly. Even if the polls were consistently tightening, and they aren't consistently doing so, the safest conclusion would probably be that the 47% bump was a bounce, and it's leaving the mainstream. Which it probably is, except in the swing states. Which would explain why the polls that appear to be tightening are all national polls, and the polls that show Obama maintaining a lead are the state polls -- which are the ones that matter more.

Incidentally, the crosstabs on that CNN poll show that Obama lost two points to Jill Stein. Which...actually supports the theory that liberals are becoming complacent DIABLOS MIGHT HAVE A POINT ABORT ABORT

(But those Green voters are probably coming from California and New York, since, you know, that's where people vote for the Green Party.)
 
This is silly. Even if the polls were consistently tightening, and they aren't consistently doing so, the safest conclusion would probably be that the 47% bump was a bounce, and it's leaving the mainstream. Which it probably is, except in the swing states. Which would explain why the polls that appear to be tightening are all national polls, and the polls that show Obama maintaining a lead are the state polls -- which are the ones that matter more.

Incidentally, the crosstabs on that CNN poll show that Obama lost two points to Jill Stein. Which...actually supports the theory that liberals are becoming complacent DIABLOS MIGHT HAVE A POINT ABORT ABORT

(But those Green voters are probably coming from California and New York, since, you know, that's where people vote for the Green Party.)

If Jill Stein is picking up those votes in Cali and NY, it's irrelevant.

I still believe, somewhat, that as the election gets nearer, GOP strongholds are getting more fervent in voting. Hence, Miss and Bama Repubs gettings stronger. But this matter not to the actual race.
 
Five PD quotes following a post.

If you guys can get through a 100-post page following one of his or Kosmo's posts without quoting, I'm buying you all ice cream.
 
So remember those Turkish Airplanes Syria shot down about three months ago?

A subsequently leaked file, also sent from the presidential palace and addressed to all heads of units of the Syrian foreign intelligence, reads: “Based on information and guidance from the Russian leadership comes a need to eliminate the two Turkish pilots detained by the Special Operations Unit in a natural way and their bodies need to be returned to the crash site in international waters.”

Holy SHIT if true. :(
 

Forever

Banned
How do you even get a state this blue:

fivethirtyeight-0930-VTmain-blog480.jpg


Fucking liberal cheddar cheese utopia down there.
 

pigeon

Banned
If Jill Stein is picking up those votes in Cali and NY, it's irrelevant.

Yeah, I was kidding. More to the point, Stein's 3% should be kept in mind when considering Romney's ceiling. If Romney picks up every voter except Obama, Libertarian and Green voters, he still loses to Obama.
 
GOP’s October surprise?
Source reveals "Jimmy Carter Strategy" to make Obama seem weak on defense in campaign's final month

Libya is not going to stick. This is one of those elections where a fundamental shift has occurred. Republicans have owned the foreign policy standard flag for the good half of past century. For a wet-behind-the-ear Democrat to singlehandedly take the issue away from their party is nothing short of extraordinary (thanks to the gutsy Abbotabad call). This thing would've been pretty amazing had Obama still tied Romney on foreign policy. Romney polls at least 4-5 points behind Obama since forever. If anything this article tells you how salty the tears are gonna be: bitter to the extreme

One more thing: It's the economy. Any sort of bullshit -> Romney fail. Bringing up medicare, welfare or FP in an economy election is doomed to fail.
 

Atlagev

Member
How do you even get a state this blue:

fivethirtyeight-0930-VTmain-blog480.jpg


Fucking liberal cheddar cheese utopia down there.

What I don't get is how liberal Vermont is, but New Hampshire, which is right next door, is so much more conservative. How are states that small and right next to each other so different?
 

Cheebo

Banned
No, they have not.

Rasmussen went up today to +3.

Last week, the consensus was Obama is up about +4. A poll being +3 confirms that narrative..

Rasmussen is just doing that so they can show OMG MITT COMEBACK after the first debate. They always do this sort of thing to try to drive a media narrative.
 
Agreed. The media cuddled him for three years, and now that it's game time he's still not ready...

As I said earlier, what has he done in this campaign to convince anyone that he's ready to win a nomination, much less be The nominee? He's not a good politician, it's pretty clear. And if Obama wins the Medicare vote in November, alongside the elderly vote? Stick a fork in it, Ryan is done. He can stay in the house and craft policy for Obama to reject all he wants. Rubio, Christie, Jeb Bush, etc are superior politicians and might have their own budgets by 2016

My money would be Scott Walker in 2016. It's always better to be a governor and not to have taken an office in Washington DC. Pawlenty is out since he became a lobbyist. Huckabee doesn't seem like he wants to run again, and Santorum would split the religious right vote with him if he did. Christie is too much of a blow hard and unhealthy looking. Also, Walker comes from a neighboring state to Iowa. He also can make the claim that he can make the Mid-West competitive again.

Rubio is too young and too ethnic for the current GOP. Jeb Bush might give Walker a run for his money, but Walker has done more for the right lately than Bush. He will appear to be the more conservative choice. And Rubio won't run against his mentor Bush if he decides to run. It's either one or the other. I also would not rule out Rick Perry going again without a late minute entry this time. That will make him better prepared, and he'll definitely have a cash advantage with all that money from Texas. But Scott Walker locks it up in 2016. That's my bet.
 
How do you even get a state this blue:

Fucking liberal cheddar cheese utopia down there.

Went to Vermont for a wedding in the summer.

Got in my Subaru rental and NPR was already tuned.

Hung out in downtown Burlington and there was a farmer's market that day. As we were walking through, noticed some dude laying out his haul -- veggies and cheese -- on his burlap reusable tote taking a picture of it with his smart phone, no doubt uploading to Twitter or Facebook...

Liberal hipster paradise.

A few days back, someone did mention that they have a weird stance on guns there given how blue the state is. But if you ever go out there, you'll know why. It's sparsely populated and wide open in much of the state.
 

strobogo

Banned
"Media bias" should be fineable for cable news networks. What they mean is "stations that aren't us". I rarely watch any live TV anymore (I don't even have a cable hooked up to my TV), but every single time I flip on a cable news network, I will hear "media bias" within 30 seconds. Can the media, who are the ones guilty of said biases, really accurately report on media bias? This is just the actual on air talent of these stations I'm talking about. It doesn't even start to touch on my rage of politicians and guest pundits who use it every single time they get called on something.
 

Forever

Banned
So, what? Romney has information of national interest and is holding onto it for political gain? Yeah, that'll play well.

Also, I smell tenuous bullshit.

No foreign policy attacks on an old event will move the numbers by 5+ points in Ohio and that's what it would take for Romney to secure victory.

Went to Vermont for a wedding in the summer.

Got in my Subaru rental and NPR was already tuned.

Hung out in downtown Burlington and there was a farmer's market that day. As we were walking through, noticed some dude laying out his haul -- veggies and cheese -- on his burlap reusable tote taking a picture of it with his smart phone, no doubt uploading to Twitter or Facebook...

Liberal hipster paradise.

A few days back, someone did mention that they have a weird stance on guns there given how blue the state is. But if you ever go out there, you'll know why. It's sparsely populated and wide open in much of the state.

Sounds like a pleasant place. Not urban enough for my tastes though.

I mean urban urban, not black.
 
My money would be Scott Walker in 2016. It's always better to be a governor and not to have taken an office in Washington DC. Pawlenty is out since he became a lobbyist. Huckabee doesn't seem like he wants to run again, and Santorum would split the religious right vote with him if he did. Christie is too much of a blow hard and unhealthy looking. Also, Walker comes from a neighboring state to Iowa. He also can make the claim that he can make the Mid-West competitive again.

Rubio is too young and too ethnic for the current GOP. Jeb Bush might give Walker a run for his money, but Walker has done more for the right lately than Bush. He will appear to be the more conservative choice. And Rubio won't run against his mentor Bush if he decides to run. It's either one or the other. I also would not rule out Rick Perry going again without a late minute entry this time. That will make him better prepared, and he'll definitely have a cash advantage with all that money from Texas. But Scott Walker locks it up in 2016. That's my bet.

Interesting, I'd love to get eznark's views on this. Wisconsin's economy is pretty good - much better than NJ's btw, which we'll be hearing about over the next few years if Obama wins.

Perry will be potent too. I think a lot of his problems during the primary were due to his back injury/medication; he'll have more time to do his homework over the next four years in preparation for 2016.
 

Forever

Banned
Interesting, I'd love to get eznark's views on this. Wisconsin's economy is pretty good - much better than NJ's btw, which we'll be hearing about over the next few years if Obama wins.

Perry will be potent too. I think a lot of his problems during the primary were due to his back injury/medication; he'll have more time to do his homework over the next four years in preparation for 2016.

Perry's performance this year was so toxic he might even get primaried in Texas if Castro doesn't want a piece of him yet.
 
Perry's performance this year was so toxic he might even get primaried in Texas if Castro doesn't want a piece of him yet.

come up buddy, let's stay in reality here...

This is a guy no one knew about (outside of Incognito) until he was tapped for the DNC, at which point people acted like he was magically The Next One. Then he gave a speech that was good not great (unlike Rubio's great speech...) and the hype increased. Let's see him win something nationally before going crazy.

Texas is deep red. Perry will win again if he runs. Castro has to wait at least until what, 2020 to have a shot?
 

Averon

Member
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/10/haley-barbour-47-percent-focus-group.php?ref=fpnewsfeed

GOP Focus Group: Undecided Voters Assume Romney’s Attacks Are Dishonest

For Republican strategists wondering why “You didn’t build that” wasn’t enough to push Mitt Romney into a lead while “47 percent” is breaking through, Haley Barbour may have answer for you.

Barbour’s firm Resurgent Republic conducted focus groups of blue collar voters in Ohio and suburban women in Virginia who supported Obama in 2008 but are now undecided. Both are swing demographics that Romney is working to win over in order to flip each state from blue to red.

Their findings? Voters are a lot more willing to believe attacks based around Romney quotes than they are on Obama quotes.

“Whenever we showed direct quotes from President Obama over the last few years, voters consistently say that this is probably taken out of context and they don’t seem to hold that same standard with Governor Romney,” pollster Linda DiVall, who conducted the Virginia focus groups, said in a conference call announcing the findings Monday.

She added that while their reaction struck her as “a little bit unfair,” it was nonetheless “American voters’ right to do that."

...

For one thing, while participants were negative on the state of the economy, many suggested that Obama needed more time before being judged given the extent of the 2008 collapse. Goeas also noticed that among Ohio blue collar voters, many “expressed general optimism on the future.” And while Obama didn’t seem to get too much credit from any group for his individual jobs policies or for his health care law, voters were bullish on the auto bailout — not only in auto-heavy Ohio, but northern Virginia as well.
 

Forever

Banned
come up buddy, let's stay in reality here...

This is a guy no one knew about (outside of Incognito) until he was tapped for the DNC, at which point people acted like he was magically The Next One. Then he gave a speech that was good not great (unlike Rubio's great speech...) and the hype increased. Let's see him win something nationally before going crazy.

Texas is deep red. Perry will win again if he runs. Castro has to wait at least until what, 2020 to have a shot?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/26/rick-perry-approval-rating_n_1233768.html

Perry has a lower approval rating than Obama in Texas. Let that sink in.
 
In other news Romney will remind people he favors war with Iran, an idea opposed by 70 percent of Americans.
Edit: it will also remind people his ticket lacks foreign policy experience.

And worse, the Romney campaign has lots of foreign policy advisors . . . from the Bush administration neocon crowd!

Seriously, the Romney campaign is completely incompetent if they think defense/foreign policy is the way to go. All they'll do is remind everyone that the GOP is filled with war-mongers that got us sucked into a very expensive and nearly-pointless war in Iraq. And now they are beating the war drums for Iran or Syria. Good luck trying to sell that!

(Complete with oddly spaced periods! :) )
 

ezrarh

Member
I have always found this odd, since I equate Subaru to rally racing and performance driving, not yuppies.

I have three roommates and all of them own a Subaru. One works for the Elizabeth Warren campaign, one is a conspiracy theory liberal, and one is a natural remedy yoga guy but happens to be a real estate salesman. There's gotta be something to it. Also I think the difference between Vermont and New Hampshire is due to their slogans: Green Mountain State vs Live Free or Die. Hippies vs Libertarians.

Now I can go back to lurking.
 

Forever

Banned
Who's going to beat him, in a deep red state? The only way Perry loses is if he faces a decent primary opponent. No democrat will beat him

If Perry's numbers don't recover substantially he may well be vulnerable to Castro in 2014. I don't know if people have taken direct head to head statewide polls yet, but Castro's approval is extremely high.
 
I have three roommates and all of them own a Subaru. One works for the Elizabeth Warren campaign, one is a conspiracy theory liberal, and one is a natural remedy yoga guy but happens to be a real estate salesman. There's gotta be something to it. Also I think the difference between Vermont and New Hampshire is due to their slogans: Green Mountain State vs Live Free or Die. Hippies vs Libertarians.

Now I can go back to lurking.

Well, I guess they do a good job on marketing their "outdoor lifestyle" more than any other car without patriotic bs like Jeep.
 
come up buddy, let's stay in reality here...

This is a guy no one knew about (outside of Incognito) until he was tapped for the DNC, at which point people acted like he was magically The Next One. Then he gave a speech that was good not great (unlike Rubio's great speech...) and the hype increased. Let's see him win something nationally before going crazy.

Texas is deep red. Perry will win again if he runs. Castro has to wait at least until what, 2020 to have a shot?

Hillary will get primaried by Castro.
 

Dude Abides

Banned
They shouldn't be doing this Libya stuff. Perhaps it's because Romney's people are all older generation Rs who think they naturally own all national security issues.

They should be hammering him on Obamacare and the mandate (as opposed to the dumb "robbing medicare" shit). That's something he's done that's actually unpopular.
 

codhand

Member
Went to Vermont for a wedding in the summer.

Got in my Subaru rental and NPR was already tuned.

Hung out in downtown Burlington and there was a farmer's market that day. As we were walking through, noticed some dude laying out his haul -- veggies and cheese -- on his burlap reusable tote taking a picture of it with his smart phone, no doubt uploading to Twitter or Facebook...

Liberal hipster paradise.

A few days back, someone did mention that they have a weird stance on guns there given how blue the state is. But if you ever go out there, you'll know why. It's sparsely populated and wide open in much of the state.

Nice to see someone carry Manos' mantle.
 

Clevinger

Member
MITCHELL: Where is the math, and is Mitt Romney going to be under pressure in this debate to produce some specifics about how it will all add up?

MCDONNELL: Well, Andrea, first, that’s a laughable question. Where’s the president’s plan? He’s had four years. 23 million people don’t have work. So let’s start with that, the president’s policies haven’t worked.

MITCHELL: The question was asked by Chris Wallace on Fox, it’s being asked by other Republicans. Where is the math? How do you add up those tax cuts even eliminating some deductions? Which deductions would you eliminate? Let’s be specific. And how will you do that and reach deficit reduction? Which programs will be cut?

MCDONNELL: The question is how do you get America back to work? What Paul Ryan just said on your clip is you, you flatten the base and increase the, I mean excuse me, you increase the — you reduce the number of deductions that are out there and you expand the base. That’s typically what works. That can be done in a revenue-neutral fashion, I think that’s what Paul Ryan has proposed, and what that does is make America more competitive.

.
 
If Perry's numbers don't recover substantially he may well be vulnerable to Castro in 2014. I don't know if people have taken direct head to head statewide polls yet, but Castro's approval is extremely high.

And yet you never explain how Castro will appeal state wide to a state that is still deep red. Obama isn't even campaigning there yet you expect Castro to outright win in two years?
 
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