teruterubozu
Member
God, I hope Wall Streeters vote for Obama.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down
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God, I hope Wall Streeters vote for Obama.
Along those lines, here's the full set of the data by sector. I find this table very useful for illustrating where job gains are coming from (or not):
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm
A bad report would certainly have some effect on an incumbent.
Maybe not a ton against a weak opponent like Romney, but it absolutely blunts Romney's insistence that the economy is in a downward spiral and that only he possesses the magical Flute of Job Creation.
Byakuya769
Member
Fact check: Plinko's claim that there is no shred of evidence supporting Romney's plan being pro-growth is directly contradicted by Mr. Romney's promises. I rate Plinko a mother-fucking liar.
http://news.yahoo.com/border-patrol-agent-killing-friendly-fire-025032638--abc-news-topstories.html
This is really tragic and shame on Fox News for basically saying it was Fast and Furious weapons just because it happened 90 miles away
This is really tragic and shame on Fox News for basically saying it was Fast and Furious weapons just because it happened 90 miles away
FYI: I did expand on my original thought a bit.
But, last time, they did. McCain essentially lost all credibility when he tanked in the WH meeting with W. & Obama in the week of the '08 collapse.
This time, they won't because they haven't been sufficiently fettled or some bullshit.
empty vessel
Member
The irony is that the numbers aren't really good. It's just that they aren't bad.
Found the clip of Morning Joe. It is embarrassing as they're trying to spin it and they're really trying. Even in the face of the actual people that have looked at the report in detail and are telling Joe, etc that they're wrong on several things. Crazy.
Edit: The guy with the crazy hair actually admitted he was afraid the 7.8 number would be viewed positively!?. Not even trying....ugh.
Edit: The guy with the crazy hair actually admitted he was afraid the 7.8 number would be viewed positively!?. Not even trying....ugh.
Frank the Great
Banned
why weren't people saying the numbers were made up when they were below expectations?
so tired of seeing people use hypocritical argument tactics. you can't have your cake and it eat too: if you want to criticize the president for bad jobs reports, you can't suddenly pretend they don't matter when those reports are good without looking like an asshole. the cognitive dissonance is amazing. if someone has this warped mental logic, he can never be proven wrong about anything. fucking bubbles.
it's like the libya thing when conservatives were criticizing obama for not doing anything and then criticized him for helping the rebellion.
so tired of seeing people use hypocritical argument tactics. you can't have your cake and it eat too: if you want to criticize the president for bad jobs reports, you can't suddenly pretend they don't matter when those reports are good without looking like an asshole. the cognitive dissonance is amazing. if someone has this warped mental logic, he can never be proven wrong about anything. fucking bubbles.
it's like the libya thing when conservatives were criticizing obama for not doing anything and then criticized him for helping the rebellion.
Black Republican
Member
a ben bernanke win?
If this becomes another "Pat Tillman" story, I believe that should just about wrap it for Fox News' credibility whatever that still was.
This. Which is why I think this report just effectively ended Romney's campaign. He (and by proxy the GOP) literally have nothing to run on.
Well, month to month arbitrary numbers are probably somewhat meaningless to the masses, but getting under 8.0% and indeed under the 7.9% Obama started with is significant milestone and talking point which undermines one of Romney's key attacks.
Seeing the Right come out to try and discredit the numbers immediately is not surprising. This area of attack was pretty much one of the only "legitimate" attacks they had against Obama in a campaign otherwise built on out of context quotes,half truths, and complete fabrications. And now it is gone.
That show is insufferable.
Obamaniods...that's a new one. The salty tears in November will hold me for months...
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
No evidence of a debate bounce in Rasmussen yet.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Well, that mentality is essentially the driving force behind the stock market, haha.
Mgoblue201
Won't stop picking the right nation
They're good in the sense that there are few caveats attached, as there were in the past with the labor participation rate. But just as importantly for Obama is that sub-8% employment is hugely symbolic - so much so that some people are trying to reject it out of hand because it clashes with their sense of reality. I think that the numbers will seem more significant than they really are, which is important for perception.
The tears at my office are going to keep me fueled for a long time.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Everyone at my job or on Facebook after Obama's re-election.
Barring fed spending on the level we need, these are good numbers.
The significance of these numbers is that potentially this race no longer needs to be a choice election. Are you better off today than you were four years ago? The economy's larger than before the recession, the unemployment rate is lower, the DOW has doubled, and there's slightly more job jobs than when Obama took office.
Obama's campaign can now make this a referendum election and win.
Obama's campaign can now make this a referendum election and win.
Reality distortion field. Bad jobs numbers = Obama fail. Good numbers, they're faked. It would be amusing were it not both sad and predictable.
Frank the Great
Banned
how are you guys using intrade? you have foreign bank accounts? i thought gambling was blocked in the US?
i was on the verge of buying a shitload of obama stock a couple of months ago but thought better of the legality of it before i even bothered to make an intrade account. maybe i should have done it anyway if people in the US are able to do it with no problems.
i was on the verge of buying a shitload of obama stock a couple of months ago but thought better of the legality of it before i even bothered to make an intrade account. maybe i should have done it anyway if people in the US are able to do it with no problems.
It's not gambling, it's investing!
Frank the Great
Banned
while i am happy that it looks like the US economy will take off in the next couple of years, probably just in time for the end of my clerkship in august 2014, i wonder if new jersey will recover by then in spite of our chode governor and his job-killing policies.
so much of our economy is based on government work, both in terms of government employment and government contracts, and he is on a warpath against spending. really annoys me, particularly because my targeted job is in state government and my future waifu is an unemployed teacher. our unemployment rate is higher than the nation and will probably stay that way unless this chode gets voted out next year.
so much of our economy is based on government work, both in terms of government employment and government contracts, and he is on a warpath against spending. really annoys me, particularly because my targeted job is in state government and my future waifu is an unemployed teacher. our unemployment rate is higher than the nation and will probably stay that way unless this chode gets voted out next year.
Solid Jobs Report Spawns Crackpot Job Truthers Movement
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/10/job-truthers-jack-welch-bls.php?ref=fpblg
A good chunk seems to be in 'Education and health services'. Wonder if that's brought on by the ACA, or by the many baby boomers aging and needing more hospital/other elderly care services, or some combination of both.
TacticalFox88
Banned
These are these are the same morons who'd be falling over themselves to jump at the chance to criticize Obama if the number had went up!
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
If Obama actually was the villainous take no prisoners politician that the Republican party has imagined up then maybe some of PoliGAFs liberal would be happier with his fighting style.
Apparently he is hardcore enough to cook the books but he can't call out Romney in a debate?
Apparently he is hardcore enough to cook the books but he can't call out Romney in a debate?
Anecdotal, but in my little rinky dink small town, those are basically the only two areas anyone with a college education can get a job. I'd imagine that's what it's like in a lot of areas. Those two things are needed everywhere and will likely not go anywhere, so it makes sense.
To follow up on my earlier posts about the establishment vs. household surveys, ~500k of the ~800k jobs from the latter were part time. Which implies that at least some of them went to folks who already have part time jobs, and so wouldn't register in the establishment survey. And overall it picked up more part time hiring that the establishment survey did.
That, combined with a healthy dose of regular statistical noise and simple methodological differences (EV's link) is the likely explanation.
Ezra Klein has a typically useful post about it.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...ebunking-the-jobs-report-conspiracy-theories/
This was a decent report. Most importantly, it was a good enough report that the fundamental trajectory of the jobs trend is one of moderate advancement. I don't think Obama gets boosted from this so much as it will maintain the status quo. Which is bad news for Romney.
That, combined with a healthy dose of regular statistical noise and simple methodological differences (EV's link) is the likely explanation.
Ezra Klein has a typically useful post about it.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...ebunking-the-jobs-report-conspiracy-theories/
This was a decent report. Most importantly, it was a good enough report that the fundamental trajectory of the jobs trend is one of moderate advancement. I don't think Obama gets boosted from this so much as it will maintain the status quo. Which is bad news for Romney.
Island folk are sneaky like that.
NihonTiger90
Member
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
unskew those Chicago style jobs
TacticalFox88
Banned
And for wonketry purposes, <8% is great news even if it's not the result of the greatest backing circumstances. It's concise and sufficiently meaningful, and as the truthers show, psychological. Even if it is mostly part-time, hey- still beats the shit out of a participation drop.
Job truthers started early in this year when we had a spat of >200K job reports. Back then conservatives were accusing Obama and the BLS of cooking the books. Their accusations disappeared in early Spring when the job numbers sank back 90,000 to 140,000 range per month.
adamsappel
Member
And yet it takes up 3 hours of airtime on "liberal" MSNBC. Where's my Fair and Balanced equivalent on FOX News?
The New Black Panther Party sector of the economy has been growing exponentially.
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