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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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I

ivysaur12

Banned
MThanded said:
Breaking: Gallup Reports Major DNC 'Bounce' for Obama


http://www.thenation.com/blog/169807/breaking-gallup-reports-major-dnc-bounce-obama
Click to expand...

Unsurprising and probably meaningless beyond comparing it to Romney's bump.

I wonder, when the Republicans win the House and Obama wins the presidency, are they still going to be the obstructionist congress? Will they finally throw their hands up and try to work with the president, or are we going to see the same gridlock without any real necessary policy getting signed?
 
C

codhand

Member
Jackson50 said:
Heads of state must be aghast at the prospect of interacting with Mitt Romney. First, BMD is a boondoggle on which we trifle away billions. We should consider eliminating the program entirely. Second, it could provide leverage to reduce Russia's TNW arsenal. So, yes. Obama, please.National unemployment matters. Or to be more specific, national economic performance matters. The economic performance of individual states is not immaterial, but it pales relative to the national trend.
Click to expand...


You said more specifically, but then became less so, also quoting a peer review from 1991? The fact is 8.1 is the "national trend"; a tick down. Now watch as Romney "explains" how that tick down happened, and loses in the process.

Keep it simple, the 8.1% number trumps everything people here are talking about.


Hell, even the Russia thing matters more right now than a shitty jobs report because it will get people talking about yet another topic that isn't the Obama job's record.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
pigeon said:
I just realized that Gallup is showing a five-point bump after two days of no bump. That's a pretty intense one day change after Wednesday night.

Dat Clinton?
Click to expand...
I think Clinton's speech will have more of an impact on a DNC bounce than Obama. He's probably the only former president with any credibility on the economy. Carter is liked for his humanitarian efforts but not well-renowned as a president, Bush Sr. isn't really in the limelight, and Dubya is... well.

There are a lot of moderates - Democrats, Independents, and Republicans alike - who would rather have Clinton back, and he wholly embraced the president and his policies. It wasn't a token "Support the Democrat, wink wink" thing, either.

ivysaur12 said:
I wonder, when the Republicans win the House and Obama wins the presidency, are they still going to be the obstructionist congress? Will they finally throw their hands up and try to work with the president, or are we going to see the same gridlock without any real necessary policy getting signed?
Click to expand...
Well for one there'll probably be more democrats in the House regardless of if they take it, so Boehner will have less wiggle room with his own caucus and if he wants to pass ANYTHING he'll have to deal with Pelosi. I'm not very optimistic though, I think they might pass a few smaller, low-hanging-fruit bills like the DREAM Act but as far as anything big, it'll be mostly gridlock.

Which is why, of course, Democrats need to win the House back. I just hope that Princeton model is accurate.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Cloudy said:
Umm, yes. They will just shift to trying to make him look bad so they can win in 2016.
Click to expand...

impossible to say. Also depends on the size of the defeat.

I wish the GOP will look at itself and restructure upon a sound defeat. But I have no idea which way they'll go because the party is filled with loonies like Bachman.
 
C

CharlieDigital

Banned
Black Mamba said:
impossible to say. Also depends on the size of the defeat.

I wish the GOP will look at itself and restructure upon a sound defeat. But I have no idea which way they'll go because the party is filled with loonies like Bachman.
Click to expand...

Who in a position of power in that party can drive that change?

No one.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
I think Clinton's speech will have more of an impact on a DNC bounce than Obama. He's probably the only former president with any credibility on the economy. Carter is liked for his humanitarian efforts but not well-renowned as a president, Bush Sr. isn't really in the limelight, and Dubya is... well.

There are a lot of moderates - Democrats, Independents, and Republicans alike - who would rather have Clinton back, and he wholly embraced the president and his policies. It wasn't a token "Support the Democrat, wink wink" thing, either.


Well for one there'll probably be more democrats in the House regardless of if they take it, so Boehner will have less wiggle room with his own caucus and if he wants to pass ANYTHING he'll have to deal with Pelosi. I'm not very optimistic though, I think they might pass a few smaller, low-hanging-fruit bills like the DREAM Act but as far as anything big, it'll be mostly gridlock.

Which is why, of course, Democrats need to win the House back. I just hope that Princeton model is accurate.
Click to expand...

Right, there's no doubt the gap will be smaller. I'm just not optimistic that we'll see any legislation that is fundamentally necessary to get us on a path towards a more stable economic growth without a one party controlling the House, Senate, and Presidency. Which is scary.
 
C

codhand

Member
PD, why is the stock market yawning? Are they in job report denial or what?

Lol at gallup website getting crushed right now.
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
ivysaur12 said:
Unsurprising and probably meaningless beyond comparing it to Romney's bump.

I wonder, when the Republicans win the House and Obama wins the presidency, are they still going to be the obstructionist congress? Will they finally throw their hands up and try to work with the president, or are we going to see the same gridlock without any real necessary policy getting signed?
Click to expand...

Definitely shows a candidate enthusiasm gulf but this election I suspect is already carved in stone based on turnout at this point.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
ivysaur12 said:
I wonder, when the Republicans win the House and Obama wins the presidency, are they still going to be the obstructionist congress? Will they finally throw their hands up and try to work with the president, or are we going to see the same gridlock without any real necessary policy getting signed?
Click to expand...

Question keeps coming up on PoliGAF (as well as, you know, the national media). It's really a question of how much the Republican leadership understands why Romney lost (probably pretty well, given their comments about angry white guys) and how well they can whip (historically not that well at all). They will eventually have to come back to the table, but it's all a matter of how long it takes for the rank and file to accept that.

Here's two things to keep in mind, though: the Bush tax cuts sunset and sequestration. These are huge changes that will happen even if Congress doesn't act at all. Pelosi has already squeezed the Republicans with a tax cut extension for middle-class and below that they rejected -- it's not going to play well for them if these time bombs blow up because of Congressional deadlock. Sure, they'll blame Democrats, but the poll numbers on Congress and the GOP show that that's not working very well for them. So Obama has a certain amount of pressure to apply here.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
CharlieDigital said:
Who in a position of power in that party can drive that change?

No one.
Click to expand...

which is why wishes are for fishes. :(

But if they don't and then the economy really returns in 4 years and Dems win again, the Republican party will be forced to restructure then or become obsolete. Either way, I think this is their last gasp in their current form.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Raine said:
I don't get how you guys watch Fox. I really don't. My brain hurts just reading what you guys say about them.
Click to expand...

I like to have my opinions challenged. It's also good for lulz

PS: I am a liberal but the only shows I watch on MSNBC are Morning Joe and maybe Chris Matthews cos I like his rants. I do like Maddow and Chris Hayes though. I just never seem to catch them..
 
C

codhand

Member
Things that matter more than the job's report.

Romney v Russia IV I Must Break You edition
Clinton slays, best. convention speech. ever.
8.1%
Comeback Kerry

This:
"The U.S. economy may not be recovering as fast as President Obama likes, but at least he can make one claim: The stock market has done better under his watch than with any other recent president.

Since Obama's inauguration on Jan. 20 2009, all three major U.S. stock indexes are up more than 60 percent. The Nasdaq Composite alone has soared a whopping 105 percent."


etc, etc, etc.
 
C

Chichikov

Member
Raine said:
I don't get how you guys watch Fox. I really don't. My brain hurts just reading what you guys say about them.
Click to expand...
60% for the schadenfreude
20% for the lulz
10% for Shepherd Smith
5% for the crazy babes
10% for arithmetics

But a bit more seriously, you can get a good feel of things by seeing what the other side think.
And in the case of Fox News, you can many times get a preview of the next news-cycle talking points, so you can be prepared for kosmo.
 
C

codhand

Member
Chichikov said:
60% for the schadenfreude
20% for the lulz
10% for Shepherd Smith
5% for the crazy babes
10% for arithmetics

But a bit more seriously, you can get a good feel of things by seeing what the other side think.
And in the case of Fox News, you can many times get a preview of the next news-cycle talking points, so you can be prepared for kosmo.
Click to expand...


For me it's 100%, know thy enemy.

I watch Daily/Colbert for the things you've mentioned.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
titiklabingapat said:
Horrible jobs report, but it is essentially the status quo.

So this means Obama is in good shape.
Click to expand...
My gut feeling is that - because he's "such a nice guy," because he's trustworthy, because he's steadily been "the adult in the room," etc - voters are inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt. Especially since his opponent comes-off as a slimy, fake skeezeball.

If the GOP had been wiser with their nomination choice, Obama would be in a world of trouble.
 
T

teruterubozu

Member
Chichikov said:
60% for the schadenfreude
20% for the lulz
10% for Shepherd Smith
5% for the crazy babes
10% for arithmetics

But a bit more seriously, you can get a good feel of things by seeing what the other side think.
And in the case of Fox News, you can many times get a preview of the next news-cycle talking points, so you can be prepared for kosmo.
Click to expand...

Limbaugh is better for news-cycle talking point predictions. Even Fox & kosmo kowtow to the almighty troll.
 
C

codhand

Member
HylianTom said:
If the GOP had been wiser with their nomination choice, Obama would be in a world of trouble.
Click to expand...


Nah, they said this about McCain too, saying Bush won the election for Obama, this year it will be Romney's fault, we've (I've) known for a good eight months it would be Romney and it would not work. They had no one.


I take that back I knew over a year ago it would be Romney, I think a lot of people did.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
HylianTom said:
If the GOP had been wiser with their nomination choice, Obama would be in a world of trouble.
Click to expand...

But then they wouldn't be the GOP.

Seriously, who would actually be a good nominee, taking into account the positions that they would have to take during the primaries?
 
C

Chichikov

Member
teruterubozu said:
Limbaugh is better for news-cycle talking point predictions. Even Fox & kosmo kowtow to the almighty troll.
Click to expand...
I don't listen to a lot of Limbaugh, but from what I gathered, he's less focused (which is to be expected given that he need to fill 3 hours in a day).
So while he'll probably cover all the upcoming talking points, he'll talk about a bunch of other stuff that wouldn't make the cut.
When fox news go on a talking point, you can tell in like 5 minutes.

Plus I have not yet completely ascertained the man's level of seriousness.
 
Vestal

Vestal

Junior Member
pigeon said:
But then they wouldn't be the GOP.

Seriously, who would actually be a good nominee, taking into account the positions that they would have to take during the primaries?
Click to expand...

A good Nominee would have been Governor Romney.. you know the Moderate...(Thus removing all the flip flop) Not Batshit crazy GOP Romney.
 
M

Measley

Junior Member
ivysaur12 said:
Unsurprising and probably meaningless beyond comparing it to Romney's bump.

I wonder, when the Republicans win the House and Obama wins the presidency, are they still going to be the obstructionist congress? Will they finally throw their hands up and try to work with the president, or are we going to see the same gridlock without any real necessary policy getting signed?
Click to expand...

It would be in their best interest to start compromising. If they continue to obstruct the president, they'll be gone by 2014.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Bulbo Urethral Baggins said:
"We're miserable failures but Romney/Ryan will be worse." Great.
Click to expand...

You're being snarky, but the funny thing is, that's absolutely true. I wouldn't say Obama and the Dems were "miserable failures", but while they haven't been particularly impressive, the point remains that in all likelihood, they STILL would be better than the alternative.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Cloudy said:
LMAO @ Fox News segment on some Gallup conspiracy where they claim the Obama campaign is using the DOJ to intimidate Gallup. They went on and on about how Gallup is the best polling outfit and their credibility in unquestioned and Team Obama is just mad that Gallup shows them losing. I was surprised that they didn't show the latest Gallup numbers in the segment so I went to check.......lol
Click to expand...
We know who's intimidating Gallup. It's not the DOJ.
codhand said:
You said more specifically, but then became less so, also quoting a peer review from 1991? The fact is 8.1 is the "national trend"; a tick down. Now watch as Romney "explains" how that tick down happened, and loses in the process.

Keep it simple, the 8.1% number trumps everything people here are talking about.


Hell, even the Russia thing matters more right now than a shitty jobs report because it will get people talking about yet another topic that isn't the Obama job's record.
Click to expand...
Okay, to be more accurate. My point was economic performance, of which national unemployment is only one measure, effects vote choice. Yes, in addition to other research. And my post was not responding to today's employment report. It refuted the notion that the national economy doesn't matter.
Marvie_3 said:
Ronald Reagan hologram
Click to expand...
I'd consider voting for a Gerald Ford hologram.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Kosmo said:
Granholm used it last night. Unfortunately, she was so shrill and horrible, that the charm of it is now useless.
Click to expand...

I like that Republicans seem so focused on that crazy Granholm speech. Democrats didn't focus on the drunken antics of Boehner and Priebus, lol.
 
S

sangreal

Member
the conspiracy actually comes from Gallup. A bunch of internal emails about how they felt intimidated because Axelrod made a mean tweet about them. Clearly this means that Obama was actually trying to intimidate them and then had the DOJ sue them for stealing money from the Government as part of the ploy. You would think the right would appreciate going after Government waste, but apparently not if you can spin it into a nonsense conspiracy theory.
 
C

codhand

Member
Kosmo said:
Granholm used it last night. Unfortunately, she was so shrill and horrible, that the charm of it is now useless.
Click to expand...


Didn't catch the Repub Granholm meme, too bad she's not running for anything and therefore won't matter. Also sad that conservatives don't know what passion looks like. They think it's embodied by phrases like "I luv U Wiiimeeennn!!!"


Drudge's headline reeks of panic mode. Granholm? Really? A six minute speech, from someone not running for office, at a convention with dozens of killer speeches.

Graspingatstraws.jpg


Not to mention Matt Drudge is "explaining" the unemployment breakdown, I'm sure their Mississippi readership really care about the deets.


If Drudge's headline is more than two, three words and a jpg, he's losing.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Man, Warren's down ~5 in Massachusetts? I really hope she gets a bump from the DNC :(

Kosmo said:
No, just Eastwood.
Click to expand...

That's in a whole league of its own. Republicans were scurrying about trying to figure out how to play that one off directly afterward.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Kosmo said:
No, just Eastwood.
Click to expand...
An American icon deserves no less.
Cloudy said:
Here's another dose of Hopeium. I dusted off my old laptop from 2008 and I still had this site bookmarked

http://election.princeton.edu/

Their 2008 numbers:

http://election.princeton.edu/2008/11/11/post-election-evaluation-part-2/

Obviously all this means nothing if Romney is seen to have won the debates or if GOP voter suppression tactics are successful
Click to expand...
Yeah. His forecast favors Obama. And his Congressional forecasts, even if rudimentary, portend well, too. And I don't fear either of those, really.
 
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