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[Officerrob]

Putin calls missile deal more likely if Obama wins

This will be spun like crazy in the right-wing blogosphere

 

[CHEEZMO™]

Putin calls missile deal more likely if Obama wins

Damn Soviets!

 

[CharlieDigital]

Putin calls missile deal more likely if Obama wins

Not necessarily a good thing; easy to twist this as Obama being perceived as softer.

 

[RDreamer]

This will be spun like crazy in the right-wing blogosphere

Probably, but it makes me feel confident in why I voted for Obama in the first place. I think I've said so here before, but my main reason back then was to re-establish the US on the world stage not as a bully that pushes everyone around and does only what it wants, but as a country that negotiates and works with other countries. The fact that Obama seems to be doing precisely that makes me happy. I may have been pretty uninformed back then compared to now, but at least my reasoning was pretty solid. Now going back to a Republican foreign policy and ideology still scares the fuck out of me. We can't really lead by pissing off every other country in the world and labeling them all as enemies. They can joke all they want about an apology tour (which didn't actually happened), but as far as I was concerned that's exactly what Obama needed to do.

 

[Suikoguy]

Not necessarily a good thing; easy to twist this as Obama being perceived as softer.

True, the biggest problem with it is Putin's recent reputation.
Still a net positive for me personally though.

 

[TacticalFox88]

Putin calls missile deal more likely if Obama wins

Tell me I'm not the only who saw the subtle implication of "If Romney wins, Russia will go to war."

 

[CharlieDigital]

I'm guessing a lot of the Right would probably love nothing more than some saber rattling, arms buildup, and chest puffing at the expense of our (mostly) non-enemy, Russia.

The Cold War is like the good ol' days compared to the 1000 years of darkness.

 

[Black Republican]

Gallup Obama 48% - Romney 45%

Approval 53%-42%

 

[worldrunover]

Gallup Obama 48% - Romney 45%

Approval 53%-42%

Nice bump.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Gallup Obama 48% - Romney 45%

Approval 53%-42%

Rolling average, has nothing to do wit last night

 

[The Librarian]

Putin calls missile deal more likely if Obama wins

That's only because Obama apologized for America while he was in Russia.

 

[Effect]

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/...ce-investigates-Ohio-teen-s-tweet-about-Obama

Nice. Felt good reporting that last night and feel even better now. Her twitter page is also gone as well.

 

[markatisu]

Rolling average, has nothing to do wit last night

Keep telling yourself that when the polls come out next week and show about the same

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Gallup Obama 48% - Romney 45%

Approval 53%-42%

Seems pretty significant if that's the seven-day average.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Rolling average, has nothing to do wit last night

Man, if only the convention were more than one night...


Also, the rolling average has static for the past week and a half, makin it indicative of larger movement.

Obamas approval rating bounce so far has been huge. (3 day average)

 

[pigeon]

Rolling average, has nothing to do wit last night

Well, a two point bump over the course of the convention isn't nothing. We'll see if it goes up as the pre-convention days shake out.

edit: The approval rating bump is almost more important -- five points there, and finally over fifty percent.

 

[Officerrob]

Romney is currently campaigning is Orange City Iowa. Orange City is in Sioux County and has a population of about 6,000 people. In the 2008 Presidential election John McCain won Sioux Country (population of about 30k) with 81% of the vote. What the hell is Mitt Romney doing is Orange City Iowa?

 

[B-Dubs]

Romney is currently campaigning is Orange City Iowa. Orange City is in Sioux County and has a population of about 6,000 people. In the 2008 Presidential election John McCain won Sioux Country with 81% of the vote. What the hell is Mitt Romney doing is Orange City Iowa?

Getting the base fired up!

 

[Effect]

That approval number is also a daily poll (taken today) for gallup right? So that means it's up even the face of days's job numbers.

 

[ThisWreckage]

Gallup Obama 48% - Romney 45%

Approval 53%-42%

Was this before the jobs loss/unemployment figures that were released?

 

[Effect]

Was this before the jobs loss/unemployment figures that were released?

Gallup releases their polls after noon or 1pm est I think.

 

[Clevinger]

Rolling average, has nothing to do wit last night

This is weak, man. You should have went with "People haven't seen the job numbers yet."

 

[BotoxAgent]

Obama's message breaking through in swing state papers

http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/obamas-message-breaks-through-in-swing-state-news

 

[Qazaq]

Was this before the jobs loss/unemployment figures that were released?

Are you asking if Gallup went and did a nationwide survey in the four-ish hours since the jobs data was released?

 

[Aaron Strife]

Rolling average, has nothing to do wit last night

Maybe for the Obama-Romney matchup. But his approval was taken over the last three days, which happened to be the days of the DNC.

Nope, has nothing to do with that!

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Was this before the jobs loss/unemployment figures that were released?

Way before, I don't even think it's taking last night's convention into account yet. The numbers are probably seven days from yesterday evening.

 

[pigeon]

Obama's message breaking through in swing state papers

http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/obamas-message-breaks-through-in-swing-state-news

Jesus, the Virginian Pilot either adores Obama or has enormous production values. I don't think I've ever seen a three-edge front page bleed like that.

 

[Effect]

Way before, I don't even think it's taking last night's convention into account yet. The numbers are probably seven days from yesterday evening.

Ah I see. Good to know. Foolishly thought they polled that day it being a daily poll, with perhaps multiple people around the country sending in their numbers.

 

[Black Mamba]

PD still harking on job reports having an affect? How many swing voters even hear about them?

What if the jobs report is wrong and more jobs were added? Because the report is off, people will vote the other way? People vote based on what they're feeling/seeing when it comes to jobs, not what reports tell them. And in this respect, I think nothing has changed for a year.

Although, the UE rate going down, despite for bad reasons, actually looks better for Obama. heh.

 

[Diablos]

God dammit, PD.

 

[Aaron Strife]

God dammit, PD.

Can I just say I'm glad you've finally come around to the winning team

PD still harking on job reports having an affect? How many swing voters even hear about them?

What if the jobs report is wrong and more jobs were added? Because the report is off, people will vote the other way? People vote based on what they're feeling/seeing when it comes to jobs, not what reports tell them. And in this respect, I think nothing has changed for a year.

Although, the UE rate going down, despite for bad reasons, actually looks better for Obama. heh.

Yeah seriously. No swing voter is going to use the jobs report as a litmus test for who they'll vote for.

 

[Diablos]

Gallup is down, PD must be DDoSing it because he can't handle the truth

 

[Black Mamba]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

Rasmussen, but worth noting it shows movement towards Obama.

edit:

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans' self-reported daily spending averaged $77 in August, up from $73 in July, and the best August spending level recorded since 2008. It is also the highest average monthly spending since December 2008.

Gallup

 

[Kosmo]

Obama's message breaking through in swing state papers

http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/obamas-message-breaks-through-in-swing-state-news

Pretty much every Presidential candidate gets the cover the next day in papers.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Retail trip report: More Obama 7-11 coffee cups were grabbed than Romney coffee cups.

But not by as much as you would expect from downtown Los Angeles. OBAMA IS DOOMED /PD

 

[Diablos]

<PhoenixDark> A transgendered midget would win in LA, Obama is fucked everywhere else

 

[coldfoot]

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans' self-reported daily spending averaged $77 in August, up from $73 in July, and the best August spending level recorded since 2008. It is also the highest average monthly spending since December 2008.

<PD>That's because gas is expensive</PD>

 

[Cloudy]

The talking heads are giving Obama mixed reactions on the speech. I personally think he gets a bump but who knows how long it'll last

 

[pigeon]

One point swing for Rasmussen.

I got to Gallup after much f5ing.*

Gallup averages the job approval rating on a three-day rolling average, meaning that today's report encompasses interviewing conducted over the three days of the Democratic Convention in Charlotte -- Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Gallup's report of presidential election preferences are, on the other hand, based on a seven-day rolling average stretching from last Friday, the day after the GOP Convention ended, through last night.

The current data are quite preliminary and for the most part don't reflect the influence of Obama's late Thursday night speech, if any.

So the five-point bump in job approval compared to the two points in the election could conceivably be a leading indicator, although job approval is also just swingier. No firm information yet, obviously. Next week.


* Actually I have bad APM and just used the mouse to reload :/

 

[Aaron Strife]

(11/6/2012, the election has just been called for Obama)

<PD>Bad news for Obama</PD>

 

[codhand]

Now we have a "bad job's number" we get to see just how wrong PD is.

 

[MThanded]

Breaking: Gallup Reports Major DNC 'Bounce' for Obama

Gallup, as usual, posted its latest poll findings at 1 pm--and found a big bounce for Obama from this year's convention, adding to yesterday's indication. They show a very strong one-day 3% hike in his approval rating to 52%--his highest mark in many months. This means that he gained a whopping 7% in just the past three days.

Also, for the first time in more than a week, the numbers on his contest with Romney moved.

It had been a 47% to 46% lead for him (with no change at all from a week ago during and after the RNC)--but now he has opened lead to 3%, at 48%-45%. And that's in a 7-day poll average with only the first couple days of the DNC factored in, so it should go up a bit more over the next few days. (Note: Gallup site erratic, probably due to heavy traffic right now.)

Here's an item on the results the past two days. By the way, Gallup has often lagged behind other polls showing leads for Romney, so a Democratic bias seems very doubtful.

http://www.thenation.com/blog/169807/breaking-gallup-reports-major-dnc-bounce-obama

 

[Diablos]

The talking heads are giving Obama mixed reactions on the speech. I personally think he gets a bump but who knows how long it'll last

No shit he's going to get a short-lived bump, but it's already doing a fuckton more than the RNC ever did for Romney and it's even being reflected in Ras.

 

[codhand]

Well that doesn't take into account the bad job's number negation effect!

 

[Jackson50]

Putin calls missile deal more likely if Obama wins

Heads of state must be aghast at the prospect of interacting with Mitt Romney. First, BMD is a boondoggle on which we trifle away billions. We should consider eliminating the program entirely. Second, it could provide leverage to reduce Russia's TNW arsenal. So, yes. Obama, please.

National polls dont matter, national unemployment doesnt matter


What matters is polls in battleground states and battleground states unemployment

You can have the national unemployment rate plummet because Alabama and north carolina had a bad month but ohio and michigan went up

National unemployment matters. Or to be more specific, national economic performance matters. The economic performance of individual states is not immaterial, but it pales relative to the national trend.

The coefficients imply that independent variation in state unemployment rates has about 25% of the effect of similar variations in the national unemployment rate.
http://www.sas.upenn.edu/~marcmere/workingpapers/HeterogenousEconomicVoting.pdf

 

[pigeon]

Breaking: Gallup Reports Major DNC 'Bounce' for Obama

I just realized that Gallup is showing a five-point bump after two days of no bump. That's a pretty intense one day change after Wednesday night.

Dat Clinton?

edit: to clarify, I'm referring to the approval bump.

 

[Cloudy]

LMAO @ Fox News segment on some Gallup conspiracy where they claim the Obama campaign is using the DOJ to intimidate Gallup. They went on and on about how Gallup is the best polling outfit and their credibility in unquestioned and Team Obama is just mad that Gallup shows them losing. I was surprised that they didn't show the latest Gallup numbers in the segment so I went to check.......lol

 

[Diablos]

They knew what the weather would be too!

 

[RDreamer]

I just realized that Gallup is showing a five-point bump after two days of no bump. That's a pretty intense one day change after Wednesday night.

Dat Clinton?

If Clinton is really one of the main reasons it swung, and he's going to Ohio and Florida to campaign for Obama, then that's some crazy good news.

 

[Black Mamba]

I just realized that Gallup is showing a five-point bump after two days of no bump. That's a pretty intense one day change after Wednesday night.

Dat Clinton?

Well, yesterday basically had only a bit of voters from night 1. Most of the voters were pre-convention.

Today you're seeing Michelle and Clinton's affect more prominent and tomorrow and Sunday will be the full convention trickling in.