http://www.mediaite.com/tv/jon-stew...critical-coverage-of-rnc-and-dnc-conventions/
Amazing takedown. Fox isn't even trying anymore...
Amazing takedown. Fox isn't even trying anymore...
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down
- Thread starter pigeon
- Start date
- Status
Yeah, I think this is the key thing that many pundits seem to have missed (Sullivan has some emails to this effect). Obama faced the tough task of following himself -- hope and change and whatnot -- after four years in which many people who perhaps had an idealistic faith in Obama are disappointed that he didn't change the world. His solution was to tell them that actually they did change the world, even if they didn't realize it. It was directly targeted towards emotionally rewarding those people for their 2008 zeal and telling them it was worth it after all so that they'll do it again for 2012. It's maybe a little manipulative, and it's not surprising it went past those who were cynical or who didn't get emotionally invested in Obama the first time around, but I think it worked. (At least it worked in my household!)
eBay Huckster
Member
oh my GOD this might be the funniest thing i've seen this year
makingmusic476
Member
I'd imagine that the day the bolded become swing states would be a time when the underlined have already solidified as blue.
Hell, I'd argue New Mexico and Nevada are *already* solidifying as blue.
Meanwhile, what blue or blue-ish states are getting redder? Maybe Wisconsin, but we don't know how much of that is due to the Ryan pick and how much of that is due to a black man being president (like West Virginia's sudden shift from swing state to far right). A run from somebody like Hillary against a candidate that's not tied to the state could swing back to pretty solid blue.
Edit:
Of course, this IS a two party system, and the Republicans aren't going to just sit back and let the entire country slip out of their hands. They will gradually evolve their platform to capture more of the vote. But it will probably be a slow, painful process that will cost them a number of national elections and completely change the electoral map breakdown as we know it.
The trend in New England over the past decade has been to a deeper blue. At one point even eliminating any republican house members from the area.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I'd imagine Ryan will change positions next week, or pull out the "well that's my opinion, but not Mitt Romney's" card again
LOL, by definition, the wealthy will only be a few...
Amazing. :lol :lol
New England will always be liberal, at least the traditionally Democratic ones like Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Conn., RI, Maine, Vermony, MD, Delaware.
The culture is just too socially liberal.
Women's rights are HUGE here, it's just part of life. The masses, especially younger people here, think birth control debates are absolutely absurd.
In terms of blue states turning red, unfortunately, it does seem to be happening quite "violently" (politically speaking) in Wisconsin. How Wisconsin votes this year will be interesting, but you can see the shift if Tommy Thompson is elected. 2 Dem senators and a Dem governor to 2 Republican senators and a Republican governor within two cycles? That's pretty stark. Shame, too, because Wisconsin is so special for unions.
Minnesota is certainly more red than it used to be, and is probably only being kept in check by the Twin Cities.
Iowa has some cities, and I'll be looking for the interactive map on election night, but I don't think Iowa's cities are able to outvote the rest of the state.
I definitely see those states going in the opposite direction.
Michigan will probably become more and more of a swing state as the cycles go on but I suspect the state's fundamentals will still favor democrats for quite awhile, giving them the edge.
Florida is absolutely bizarre. At Politico, there is a bit in one of the articles about how the Romney camp expected to put away a swing state by now, and how they thought it'd be Florida (I assume this excludes NC). If this election is much closer nationally than the last one, then Romney SHOULD be leading in Florida, but he's not. I have no idea what the demographics are for this state. Honestly, there's probably too many counterbalancing factors (Hispanic growth vs. huge amount of rural counties vs. Northern liberals retiring vs. ton of general GOP-leaning elders).
Ohio will probably continue to be around the middle more or less.
Pennsylvania is just too inelastic. Pittsburgh and Philly can outvote the rest of the state and it doesn't seem like that's due to change anytime soon, as it's the rural areas in PA that are losing population, not the cities. (Compare this to Missouri, where the major cities are stagnant in population compared the growing rural areas, hence Missouri's rightward trend.)
I think by 2024, this could very well be a reasonable map of swing states:
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=wYk
Texas a Republican leaning swing state, Arizona a toss up, Michigan a Dem-leaning swing state, Ohio tossup, North Carolina tossup/maybe Dem leaning at that point. Florida who knows.
The culture is just too socially liberal.
Women's rights are HUGE here, it's just part of life. The masses, especially younger people here, think birth control debates are absolutely absurd.
In terms of blue states turning red, unfortunately, it does seem to be happening quite "violently" (politically speaking) in Wisconsin. How Wisconsin votes this year will be interesting, but you can see the shift if Tommy Thompson is elected. 2 Dem senators and a Dem governor to 2 Republican senators and a Republican governor within two cycles? That's pretty stark. Shame, too, because Wisconsin is so special for unions.
Minnesota is certainly more red than it used to be, and is probably only being kept in check by the Twin Cities.
Iowa has some cities, and I'll be looking for the interactive map on election night, but I don't think Iowa's cities are able to outvote the rest of the state.
I definitely see those states going in the opposite direction.
Michigan will probably become more and more of a swing state as the cycles go on but I suspect the state's fundamentals will still favor democrats for quite awhile, giving them the edge.
Florida is absolutely bizarre. At Politico, there is a bit in one of the articles about how the Romney camp expected to put away a swing state by now, and how they thought it'd be Florida (I assume this excludes NC). If this election is much closer nationally than the last one, then Romney SHOULD be leading in Florida, but he's not. I have no idea what the demographics are for this state. Honestly, there's probably too many counterbalancing factors (Hispanic growth vs. huge amount of rural counties vs. Northern liberals retiring vs. ton of general GOP-leaning elders).
Ohio will probably continue to be around the middle more or less.
Pennsylvania is just too inelastic. Pittsburgh and Philly can outvote the rest of the state and it doesn't seem like that's due to change anytime soon, as it's the rural areas in PA that are losing population, not the cities. (Compare this to Missouri, where the major cities are stagnant in population compared the growing rural areas, hence Missouri's rightward trend.)
I think by 2024, this could very well be a reasonable map of swing states:
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=wYk
Texas a Republican leaning swing state, Arizona a toss up, Michigan a Dem-leaning swing state, Ohio tossup, North Carolina tossup/maybe Dem leaning at that point. Florida who knows.
If those Ron Paul kids are still conservative in another 10 years, we've failed as a society. It would be far, far better for liberals to adopt the social libertarian and non-interventionist aspects of the platform. Young people don't become libertarians because they think a flat tax is great; they become libertarians because of foreign policy and the war on drugs.
The economic side of libertarianism is the young-Earth creationism of economic theories.
Best thing Ryan has ever said.
Black Mamba
Member
Romney is vehemently against it. This very well could be an honest position by Ryan. I dunno.
Still doesn't overcome all his crappy positions.
Rocket Scientist
Member
That's all on Obama though. He fucked up big time. Assuming that he could have stopped the raids etc.
Scott Walker and wedge politics.
maximum360
Member
Stay far far away from Politico. They are truly worthless.
Black Republican
Member
in response to the gallup bump:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2928096/posts?q=1&;page=1
surprisingly a few admitted the gop convention was shit
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2928096/posts?q=1&;page=1
surprisingly a few admitted the gop convention was shit
Iowa will be remain a swing state as it usually prefers a state government that is opposite of the President. In 2000 and 2004 we had a Democratic state while voting for Bush (though 2000 was close) in 2008 it went blue for Obama but the Republicans took the state.
It's also deceiving because despite it's size nobody lives in the corners or the rural areas. The states politics are completely controlled by it's 2 main city centers Des Moines and Iowa City which are extremely liberal due to the Universities.
We also have a massive amount of Hispanics, some areas increased 300% since 2000 and
and the GOP shitting over our wind projects which keep our community colleges afloat has been very bad for them and will continue to be.
It's also deceiving because despite it's size nobody lives in the corners or the rural areas. The states politics are completely controlled by it's 2 main city centers Des Moines and Iowa City which are extremely liberal due to the Universities.
We also have a massive amount of Hispanics, some areas increased 300% since 2000 and
and the GOP shitting over our wind projects which keep our community colleges afloat has been very bad for them and will continue to be.
Wafflecakes
Member
My prediction assuming nothing drastic changes. I actually have Florida as the only real tossup. The other states are close but have had very consistent polling one way or the other.
The Librarian
Banned
I'm more angry that you apparently don't see the vast chasm that divides the CPC and "communists." As if the CPC wants to nationalize every business, make everyone get a certain amount of money, and dictate who should work as what for the good of the state.
I'm assuming you agree with what Allen West said because it looks you don't have a problem with it.
I think there is a range of "communism" (socialism, call it what you will). I don't think whatever the current incarnation of the movement is (progressivism, etc.) wants to necessarily tell people what work they need to do, but I don't think I can get behind the notion that they don't want everyone to make a certain amount of money. Rather than mandate what people make, they are more inclined to follow the "make what you want, and we'll take what we want to make things fair." As long as taxation is the slave to spending and not vice versa, I don't see a different end.
The Librarian
Banned
That's because you're nuts.
Is skid marks supposed to be a nickname for the President?
Politico still was pretty bad in 2008 but it had a shine and luster to it because it was one of the first big politics only sites.
Xisiqomelir
Member
How could I be outraged at Allen West? It's like getting outraged at Fred Phelps or Bill O'Reilly.
Officerrob
Banned
Allan West is an idiot. Call a spade a spade. It's not even worth discussing really
RustyNails
Member
Posted this in the other thread, but Larry Flynt offers $1m for Romney Tax Returns
Romney cant get a break. About this whole thing. I'm starting to think it's true.
Romney cant get a break. About this whole thing. I'm starting to think it's true.
They want 1 Million in bit coins first.
RustyNails
Member
That's right. But the hackers demand $1m for the tax returns, otherwise they will release them on Sept 28 for everyone.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Wait, what? Rather then figuring out what we need to spend on and taxing appropriately so we can, you'd rather set the tax rates by some other criteria and afterwards figure out what we can do with that money? What would that criteria be?
"Oh, we've got a few million lying around, might as well build a road"
Interesting article which explains why Bill is going all out for Obama:
Clinton can't allow Romney to take credit for Obama's recovery. He is instead taking the opportunity to make sure that a popular Obama owes him big favors in 2016.
I agree with, I think Frum's take on this -- it's weird that people are convinced that the last Democratic president needs an ulterior motive to campaign for the current Democratic president besides protecting his own legacy. That said, Bill's obviously not the only person who thinks Hillary should run in '16, as witness this thread. I'm more interested with the suggestion that Biden is also aggressively campaigning for Obama in order to get support for his own run, because if both these rumors are true, I foresee exciting discord ahead.
Obama pledges to destroy Jesus:
http://www.theonion.com/articles/obama-help-us-destroy-jesus-and-start-a-new-age-of,29478/
http://www.theonion.com/articles/obama-help-us-destroy-jesus-and-start-a-new-age-of,29478/
Black Republican
Member
Charlie Crist just hugged Obama at a campaign event in FL
oh shit, game over for him again!
oh shit, game over for him again!
Wouldn't Biden aggressively campaign for Obama so he can keep his own job?
Well there was no going back for him after this week, now there is definitely no going back lol
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Rocket Scientist
Member
Will union membership in the US ever increase?
PPP said:
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/244459869439131648
Obama leads all three tracking polls now, with Gallup yet to be updated today. Dat bounce.
Black Republican
Member
was watching Christine o donnell on Bill maher, as nutty as she is, i really cant hate her. Atleast she doesnt take herself too seriously sometimes
oh wow, im usually pessimistic on bounces, but the fact Obama's is atleast more noticeable than Romney's is certainly telling.
oh wow, im usually pessimistic on bounces, but the fact Obama's is atleast more noticeable than Romney's is certainly telling.
It's a nice dream. Not sure how they combat the war that's been raging on them since, at the least, the 80s. It's certainly taken its toll on the public's thoughts on unions.
- Status
Similar threads
- Poll