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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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giga

Member
Jesus Christ just did two hours phone banking some place called Henderson (hendersonville?), nc. Full of old white republicans man. They were not friendly when i mentioned Obama.
 
It's a nice dream. Not sure how they combat the war that's been raging on them since, at the least, the 80s. It's certainly taken its toll on the public's thoughts on unions.
It's been ruthless and public opinion is not in their favor it seems. I'm really amazed at how deep the anti-communist/socialist/anything similar sentiment still runs in the USA and how many people are so vehemently against unions. The right has done a very good job at vilifying unions, especially their leaders who seem to make quite a lot of money. There needs to be a really intensive coordinated campaign from both politicians and the unions to convince the American people that they are necessary.
 
Aren't convention bounces supposed to always fade? If so, why do we care about them in the first place?

It's not as simple as that. Two more recent aggregates:

Obama vs McCain 2008

rDN6T.jpg


Bush vs Kerry 2004

zVXQ4.jpg


I think it's sustainable, though many factors do play.
 

pigeon

Banned
It's been ruthless and public opinion is not in their favor it seems. I'm really amazed at how deep the anti-communist/socialist/anything similar sentiment still runs in the USA and how many people are so vehemently against unions. The right has done a very good job at vilifying unions, especially their leaders who seem to make quite a lot of money. There needs to be a really intensive coordinated campaign from both politicians and the unions to convince the American people that they are necessary.

Here's the biggest problems unions face -- most Americans today simply won't ever work in a field that has a union history, because the service industry and the professional (STEM/white-collar) sector have never been thought of as "labor." Previous polls show that most Americans, while disliking unions, would like to join one -- part of their distaste is that they can't. A new American labor rights movement will have to focus on organizing these people -- and there are preexisting strong forces standing in the way of individually organizing each one. What we need is a nationwide or global labor rights organization -- basically, the AFL or the IWW, except both those names might be tough sells.
 

Dude Abides

Banned
Jesus Christ just did two hours phone banking some place called Henderson, nc. Full of old white republicans man. They were not friendly when i mentioned Obama.

They shouldn't be having you call too many Republicans. Those lists are supposed to be of registered Ds I believe.
 

giga

Member
They shouldn't be having you call too many Republicans. Those lists are supposed to be of registered Ds I believe.
Our coordinator said it is usually Ds but the ones they had today were unspecified. :/ We weren't even trying to convince people or anything--just trying to recruit volunteers.
 

markatisu

Member
Aren't convention bounces supposed to always fade? If so, why do we care about them in the first place?

Well in this case the bounce is what Romney needed to keep pace with Obama, if in fact Obama got the bigger bounce then Romney is effectively up shits creek without a paddle unless a national emergency ala Sept 2008 or Obama caught in bed with a man or a white young girl
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Aren't convention bounces supposed to always fade? If so, why do we care about them in the first place?

They can and usually do. But context is important. Romney barely saw a bounce from his convention - below historical trends - and he was behind. Obama appears to be getting a sizable bounce based on early indicators - and he was ahead to begin with.

Even when Obama's bounce fades, and it will, the likely outcome is he'll still be ahead, after the conventions. This is a very poor outcome for Romney, and worth noting.
 

Clevinger

Member

GhaleonEB

Member
My Mom wrote to the President and didn't realize that the White House responded until I was helping her clean up her unread emails.

She wrote about my older brother's illness and passing, last year. The White House featured her letter as a letter of the week and we didn't even realize it until yesterday.

Here is the link: www.barackobama.com/news/entry/fl-letter-of-the-weekjuly-30th-2012/
Saddening story, but heartening in showing how we are making progress. Thanks for sharing.

I think what polls have shown with convention bounces is that Romney has a ceiling and Obama doesn't.

Yup. Or to be more precise, Romney's ceiling is much lower than Obama's.
 
Minnesota is certainly more red than it used to be, and is probably only being kept in check by the Twin Cities.
Minnesota's not going red for a looong time. It's true that there are some Republican areas of the state but you drastically understate the blueness of the Twin Cities, as well as the Iron Range.

PPP said:
We started 5 state polls- some public, some private- and a national poll last night. What they're looking like: 2008
Oh wow. Excellent news.

I hope this applies to more than the Obama v. Romney contest. Team Blue could use a turnaround in the MA, NV, WI senate races, and obviously the national House race.
 

markatisu

Member
I'm also a little fascinated by the poll below that where unemployment went up at the same time as economic confidence and quality of life index.

I wonder if that has to do with the idea that while people are unemployed now when employment and the economy comes back around there will be better jobs.

Basically we all take the hit because whats coming is going to be so much better

I mean in my own case, the economy took a shit and I lost my job but I have a job now that pays 40% more, I opened my own business and because of the housing crash was able to buy my house outright. So my confidence and quality of life are WAY up
 

Gruco

Banned
So I finally caught up with the Biden and Obama speeches.

Biden's was really good. I liked the "I see it up close and holy shit do I trust this guy" motif. He also did really well weaving his classing GM/bin Laden line into his attacks on Romney, given 2008 Romney's attitudes towards those things. Great set up.

Obama I guess I mostly agree with what I had seen before watching it - started as a more workman like speech with a slow build. Still compelling, but a very clear contrast with his 2008 style speeches. Once he pivoted to the topic of "citizenship" as the contrast between the parties, the slow build paid off and it was basically vintage Obama. The "you made that happen" was basically exactly what I was hoping he would say and a much needed reminder the all of the work in 2008 did in fact result in real change. It seemed like he managed to speak at once to both undecideds and the disaffected base, which is fairly impressive.

Coming after pure awesome incarnate delivered by Michelle and Clinton, I can see how people were disappointed I guess, but I think that's a silly way to look at things. The DNC had at a minimum 5 speeches which were better than anything delivered at the RNC. Warren is the only headliner to not impress in a really big way. Not only that, but every headliner built on one another and managed to not only reinforce the earlier ideas but create a overall narrative of the Obama presidency from 2008 to 2016.

Basically, I think that was the best overall convention in my lifetime. It's a great contrast to see Democrats who are just so damned happy and proud to be Democrats, compared to the rambling mess in Tampa.

Or to put is another way, it's too bad Obama can't run on his record.
 
So...according to Princeton Election place, Romney got a negative bounce from the convention

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/07/the-gop-convention-negative-bounce-a-final-look/

As I stated before, the GOP convention was of no help to them in the Electoral College. Indeed, it appears that the race shifted towards President Obama by 6-15 EV, or about 1.0% of Popular Vote Meta-Margin. From an analytical perspective, a negative bounce is quite remarkable because all the talk in recent weeks has been of bounces being smaller or zero, but always in the hosting party’s favor.
 

Gruco

Banned
It's worth pointing out that Kerry got a negative bounce from 2004 and never recovered from the RNC running up the spread, even after a very strong first debate.
 

markatisu

Member
So...according to Princeton Election place, Romney got a negative bounce from the convention

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/07/the-gop-convention-negative-bounce-a-final-look/

As it should, they spent a week feeding their base but offering nothing to the middle or even disappointed people on the left.

Then were utterly destroyed when the Democrats came out praising America and basically saying we know what we did and we are proud of it, haters go hate and feel sorry for yourselves
 
Poor Obama probably has it written somewhere in blood to be an avid supporter of Hilary Clinton in 2016 if his Gallup numbers stay atleast 49-51 going into the debates.

Bill dont play.

So...according to Princeton Election place, Romney got a negative bounce from the convention

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/07/the-gop-convention-negative-bounce-a-final-look/

i saw it as the RNC & Marco Rubio/Chris Christie Convention Feat. Romney

compared to the

Obamas/Clinton Convention Feat. DNC
 

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Obama up 4 in Gallup over Romney... and that includes about 4-5 days of what should have been Romney's bounce since it's a 7-day rolling average? And he's enjoying a 10pt favorability rating?

Welp.
 
Obama up 4 in Gallup over Romney... and that includes about 4-5 days of what should have been Romney's bounce since it's a 7-day rolling average? And he's enjoying a 10pt favorability rating?

Welp.

Just a note of caution, it also doesn't include Friday's economic numbers.
 

pigeon

Banned
So...according to Princeton Election place, Romney got a negative bounce from the convention

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/07/the-gop-convention-negative-bounce-a-final-look/

AP lede after Tuesday night: "Republicans emphatically approved a toughly worded party platform at their national convention Tuesday that would ban all abortions and gay marriages, reshape Medicare into a voucher-like program and cut taxes to energize the economy and create jobs."
AP lede after Wednesday night: "GOP vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan took some factual shortcuts during the Republican convention when he attacked President Barack Obama's policies on Medicare, the economic stimulus and the budget deficit."
AP lede after Thursday night: "Clint Eastwood, the Hollywood filmmaker who knows all about sticking to the script, turned in a bizarre, unscripted endorsement of Republican Mitt Romney Thursday night."

Yeah, I'm not surprised that Romney got a negative bounce.
 

Snake

Member
But PD told us there would be no bounce and I was told bounces were negligible since Romney got 1pt :p

I think almost everyone was convinced Obama wouldn't get a real bounce. He didn't get one in '08, Romney got zilch, and the numbers haven't moved in general for a long time.

I think this convention really outdid expectations all over.
 
Just a note of caution, it also doesn't include Friday's economic numbers.
Of course Obama's got a lead, all the people with jobs were too busy working to respond.

Snake said:
I think almost everyone was convinced Obama wouldn't get a real bounce. He didn't get one in '08, Romney got zilch, and the numbers haven't really moved in general for a long time.

I think this convention really outdid expectations all over.
I thought he'd get a small one that would just cancel out Romney's.

Instead he's getting a bigger one that doesn't need to cancel out Romney's because Romney didn't get one.
 

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
Obama up 4 in Gallup over Romney... and that includes about 4-5 days of what should have been Romney's bounce since it's a 7-day rolling average? And he's enjoying a 10pt favorability rating?

Welp.

Even McCain had a bounce. Romney can't even do that.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ma_vs_romney_compared_to_obama_vs_mccain.html

This isn't a one off mistake on Romney's campaign. They just fundamentally lack the talent and platform that America wants right now. Save for massive job losses or some other disaster, I think Obama is going to win this by 4% in popular vote and sweep electorally.
 

pigeon

Banned
I think almost everyone was convinced Obama wouldn't get a real bounce. He didn't get one in '08, Romney got zilch, and the numbers haven't moved in general for a long time.

After the RNC splat (no bounce) I assumed that Obama wasn't going to get one either as part of my expectation-lowering strategy. I would be pleasantly surprised -- but after watching the convention, really, I'm not surprised at all.

It's also worth noting that Obama's speech hearkened back to one of the most popular American presidents -- and to a message that's really core to the progressive platform, but that hasn't been heard much since then.

Barack Obama said:
But we also believe in something called citizenship — (cheers, applause) — citizenship, a word at the very heart of our founding, a word at the very essence of our democracy, the idea that this country only works when we accept certain obligations to one another and to future generations.

John F. Kennedy said:
I do not shrink from this responsibility—I welcome it. I do not believe that any of us would exchange places with any other people or any other generation. The energy, the faith, the devotion which we bring to this endeavor will light our country and all who serve it—and the glow from that fire can truly light the world. And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you—ask what you can do for your country.

Framing the welfare state as a duty is a lot more palatable to the Protestant American ethos than framing it as an entitlement.
 

Averon

Member
If Obama does win in and electoral sweep, how the will GOP respond going forward? People like John Boehner and Lindsay Graham realize the party's current path is untenable. Romney's own campaign adviser said this probably the last election that the GOP will try to win almost purely by white voters; winning by only white voters and a scant few minority votes is getting too hard to pull off.
 

markatisu

Member
If Obama does win in and electoral sweep, how the will GOP respond going forward? People like John Boehner and Lindsay Graham realize the party's current path is untenable.

Boehner already does, a big electoral loss might give him the testicles to say ENOUGH to the rest of the leadership
 

RDreamer

Member
If Obama does win in and electoral sweep, how the will GOP respond going forward? People like John Boehner and Lindsay Graham realize the party's current path is untenable. Romney's own campaign adviser said this probably the last election that the GOP will try to win almost purely by white voters; winning by only white voters and a scant few minority votes is getting harder and harder to do.

I hope enough realize this, and I sincerely hope that Obama would use it as a mandate. If he wins in a huge sweep he should absolutely put pressure on the republicans in the house and senate to finally work with him because that's what the American people have said they wanted. Then he needs to keep pushing it.
 
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