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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Byakuya769 said:
Fuck this shit if I have to grovel to PantherLotus for making fun of his landslide prediction.
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If there is a landslide, I'm going to regret walking back my hopeless optimism in 2010, though it was probably for the best.

Diablos said:
What if it comes down to PA, VA, and OH though?

I could totally see GOPers butting their heads together and trying to orchestrate some serious shit. The GOP will have an even bigger meltdown than they did in 2008 if Obama gets re-elected and they'll be looking at every opportunity to do as much as they can to obstruct before Romney thinks he has to concede.

We're talking about a party that almost single-handedly caused another financial meltdown during the debt ceiling crisis; pulling off something like this would be a walk in the park to them.
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Well PA's going to go for Obama, otherwise Romney would still be playing there.

Like I said, in Virginia, McDonnell actually expanded the voter ID law there to include more types of ID and send out free IDs to everybody, which seems counterintuitive to trying to rig the election.

Ohio is troublesome but from the sounds of it, Obama's lead is so big there it won't really matter.

I'm sure there's going to be all sorts of illegit shit going down on election day, but unless it's as close as 2000 or 2004 I doubt it would swing the election, or even if it was.
 
T

Trurl

Banned
Byakuya769 said:
Fuck this shit if I have to grovel to PantherLotus for making fun of his landslide prediction.
Click to expand...

What exactly was his landslide prediction? I expect Obama to win handily in that Tuesday morning there will be a general sense that Obama will probably be reelected, that the election will be called as soon as the polls close on the west coast, and that Obama's victory won't depend on any one victory. But that's far from a landslide.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Ohio is troublesome but from the sounds of it, Obama's lead is so big there it won't really matter.
Click to expand...

Practically every new restriction's been smacked down here, but even if that wasn't the case Obama would still win the state in a walk.

Also, Ohio should approve the creation of an independent redistricting commission (Issue 2) simultaneous with this.
 
M

makingmusic476

Member
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
makingmusic476 said:
I'm so glad I'll be able to participate in the excitement this time around. I wasn't paying attention to politics AT ALL in 2008.
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I was relatively apolitical in 2008 - I really wanted Obama to win, but mainly because I didn't like Bush after the war and Katrina, and McCain just seemed like an extension of that.

I didn't really know or care about the process the House and Senate played in legislating, and kind of thought Obama would just be able to snap his fingers and we'd get single-payer and end the wars. I started paying a bit more attention to the Franken-Coleman race in MN though.

In a way I'm going to miss that. Whatever euphoria I might get from Obama winning could just as easily be dashed if Republicans still have the House.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Well PA's going to go for Obama, otherwise Romney would still be playing there.
Click to expand...
Yes I know, but if it comes down to OH, VA and PA (as an example) looking like the "deciding" states I'm saying the state GOP legislatures could try to pull something off, regardless of what the Romney campaign did or did not spend there.

Like I said, in Virginia, McDonnell actually expanded the voter ID law there to include more types of ID and send out free IDs to everybody, which seems counterintuitive to trying to rig the election.
Click to expand...
Yes, this is a positive step forward, but I can never fully trust the GOP's intentions.

Ohio is troublesome but from the sounds of it, Obama's lead is so big there it won't really matter.
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How can you be so certain? If the voter ID law is strong enough to thwart voters in key areas it can push GOP votes over the top while others get suppressed.

I'm sure there's going to be all sorts of illegit shit going down on election day, but unless it's as close as 2000 or 2004 I doubt it would swing the election, or even if it was.
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This election is going to be decided by a rather small amount of counties nationwide -- the GOP knows this, that's why I fear they are going to capitalize on their voter ID legislation and essentially break the law to try and validate their position of "protecting voters" when they are really just suppressing Democrats, particularly minorities, who absolutely cannot be turned away if we are to be confident about securing the election. They've got this down to a science and being faced with the reality of another Obama win is going to drive them mad.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Diablos said:
What if it comes down to PA, VA, and OH though?

I could totally see GOPers butting their heads together and trying to orchestrate some serious shit. The GOP will have an even bigger meltdown than they did in 2008 if Obama gets re-elected and they'll be looking at every opportunity to do as much as they can to obstruct before Romney thinks he has to concede.

We're talking about a party that almost single-handedly caused another financial meltdown during the debt ceiling crisis; pulling off something like this would be a walk in the park to them.
Click to expand...

Obama's lead in PA is so large at this point that even with GOP registration shenanigans it's still out of play. I recall Silver having some kind of article that gave a worst case scenario of actual democratic turnout being down 1 to 2% in urban areas if the PA voter ID law passed. with a lead of +6 to +9 (depending on who you listen to) Romney would need a lot more than that to flip the state.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Diablos said:
Yes I know, but if it comes down to OH, VA and PA (as an example) looking like the "deciding" states I'm saying the state GOP legislatures could try to pull something off, regardless of what the Romney campaign did or did not spend there.
Click to expand...
Aren't most of the legislatures out of session? Calling a special session just to disenfranchise voters couldn't be seen as anything but a blatant partisan power play. I don't think they'd risk it. Plus most of these states have early voting underway, have prepared or sent out absentee ballots etc. There comes a point where they can't really do anything.

How can you be so certain? If the voter ID law is strong enough to thwart voters in key areas it can push GOP votes over the top while others get suppressed.
Click to expand...
As ebay huckster pointed out, most of the GOP tricks in Ohio have been shut down. I feel fine.

This election is going to be decided by a rather small amount of counties nationwide -- the GOP knows this, that's why I fear they are going to capitalize on their voter ID legislation and essentially break the law to try and validate their position of "protecting voters" when they are really just suppressing Democrats, particularly minorities, who absolutely cannot be turned away if we are to be confident about securing the election. They've got this down to a science and being faced with the reality of another Obama win is going to drive them mad.
Click to expand...
There's only so much they can do though, that's the thing. And time is running out.

By the way, Plouffe says Obama's leading in Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, and Florida. It's literally impossible for Romney to win without picking off any of thsoe.
 
D

Diablos

Member
All good points, but it's still way too early to get cocky and assume Obama has this wrapped up. November is right around the corner, but this is politics, and thus another two months can seem like an eternity depending on how things play out.

The GOP is raising some serious money and will be playing every dirty trick in the book trying to win this thing; we cannot assume that just because the Dems had an epic convention and are polling well that it's in the bag.
 
M

makingmusic476

Member
Aaron Strife said:
I was relatively apolitical in 2008 - I really wanted Obama to win, but mainly because I didn't like Bush after the war and Katrina, and McCain just seemed like an extension of that.

I didn't really know or care about the process the House and Senate played in legislating, and kind of thought Obama would just be able to snap his fingers and we'd get single-payer and end the wars. I started paying a bit more attention to the Franken-Coleman race in MN though.

In a way I'm going to miss that. Whatever euphoria I might get from Obama winning could just as easily be dashed if Republicans still have the House.
Click to expand...

My "knowledge" of politics in 2008 was "Obama is inexperienced, and McCain is a Republican! Go McCain! Also, government fucks up everything it does."

In late high school I was also into white-washing Southern/Confederate history to promote radical, small government, states' rights agendas. Big government = bad! Now I'm pretty much a socialist lol.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Diablos said:
All good points, but it's still way too early to get cocky and assume Obama has this wrapped up. November is right around the corner, but this is politics, and thus another two months can seem like an eternity depending on how things play out.

The GOP is raising some serious money and will be playing every dirty trick in the book trying to win this thing; we cannot assume that just because the Dems had an epic convention and are polling well that it's in the bag.
Click to expand...
They can still win. It just isn't very likely.

makingmusic476 said:
My "knowledge" of politics in 2008 was "Obama is inexperienced, and McCain is a Republican! Go McCain! Also, government fucks up everything it does."

In late high school I was also into white-washing Southern/Confederate history to promote radical, small government, states' rights agendas. Big government = bad! Now I'm pretty much a socialist lol.
Click to expand...
For me I was almost always a peace-loving hippie, I just didn't know it yet. Universal healthcare in Canada sounded awesome, I hated the wars, and I was for gay marriage before it was cool (not a view I espoused openly for a while though, being in middle school when I came to that conclusion. Nothing like locker room homophobia!).
 
B

Black Republican

Member
RDreamer said:
dQtsd.jpg
Click to expand...

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7421142n
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvkN3ODGn-I&feature=youtu.be

video version
 
R

RustyNails

Member
RDreamer said:
MhRsJ.jpg
Click to expand...
"Hey baby, you know what BFD really means?"
dQtsd.jpg
Click to expand...
Obama entered the shop saying, "Scott, let me tell you, you are like the biggest pizza shop owner I've ever seen," according to a White House pool report.

Van Duzer, 46, is a big guy: He is 6' 3" tall and weighs 260 pounds.

After Obama was lifted up, he said "Look at that!" Man are you a powerlifter or what?"

He continued, according to the pool, talking about Van Duzer's big muscles.

"Everybody look at these guns," he said. "If I eat your pizza will I look like that?"

Van Duzer, by the way, is a registered Republican who voted for Obama in 2008 and says he will do so again in November.

"I don't vote party line, I vote who I feel comfortable with, and I do feel extremely comfortable with him," he told the press pool.
Click to expand...
Huffpo. Trying to think how Mitts would react in this situation.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Tim-E said:
He would probably rush to a restroom to clean himself off after being touched by a poor.
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Hardly. That big dudes the Pizza owner. Mitt will probably stand there flummoxed and say something really stupid like "I love big Pizza owners!", before his handlers hurriedly broom him out of the shop.
 
H

Hobbestetrician

Member
RustyNails said:
Hardly. That big dudes the Pizza owner. Mitt will probably stand there flummoxed and say something really stupid like "I love big Pizza owners!", before his handlers hurriedly broom him out of the shop.
Click to expand...

"Some of my best fundraisers are Pizza (chain) owners!" Mitt says as he wipes his hands with a Papa John's napkin after being touched by the man.
 
C

codhand

Member
I don't envy politicians when I see those awkward encounters. Like dude, calm down, gimme a slice, I'll give you a photo op, that being said, Obama is good at it.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
So I went to Drudge report...

They have top headlines saying flashback: Dukakis led HW by 17 points after DNC, and Carter led Reagan by 4 points after DNC. I did a wiki, and
Arguably the most important event of the entire 1980 presidential campaign was the second presidential debate, which was held one week to the day before the election (October 28).[24] On October 26, two days prior to the debate, Gallup released a survey that suggested that Carter was leading Reagan by a margin of 47% to 39%.[24] Over the course of two hours, the entire race changed drastically, and what was considered an extremely tight race with the President slightly ahead became a comfortable Republican victory for Reagan. Nothing of that magnitude has happened since in any televised confrontations.
Click to expand...
This is the famous debate where Reagan looked into the TV and said "Are you better off now than you were four years ago? Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago? Is America as respected throughout the world as it was? Do you feel that our security is as safe, that we're as strong as we were four years ago? And if you answer all of those questions 'yes', why then, I think your choice is very obvious as to whom you will vote for. If you don't agree, if you don't think that this course that we've been on for the last four years is what you would like to see us follow for the next four, then I could suggest another choice that you have."
As for HW vs Dukakis, Willie Horton did him in. Also the rape question during the debates.

What to learn from all of this is that debates do matter.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
RustyNails said:
So I went to Drudge report...

They have top headlines saying flashback: Dukakis led HW by 17 points after DNC, and Carter led Reagan by 4 points after DNC. I did a wiki, and

This is the famous debate where Reagan looked into the TV and said "Are you better off now than you were four years ago? Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago? Is America as respected throughout the world as it was? Do you feel that our security is as safe, that we're as strong as we were four years ago? And if you answer all of those questions 'yes', why then, I think your choice is very obvious as to whom you will vote for. If you don't agree, if you don't think that this course that we've been on for the last four years is what you would like to see us follow for the next four, then I could suggest another choice that you have."
As for HW vs Dukakis, Willie Horton did him in. Also the rape question during the debates.

What to learn from all of this is that debates do matter.
Click to expand...

They do; I don't think anyone has thought otherwise. I think with the 24 hour news cycle they matter a bit less, but they are still very much relevant. But I think we've learned from this summer that Romney is no Reagan. Romney may be full of as much shit as him, but Reagan was at least good at selling it, unlike Romney.
 
C

codhand

Member
RustyNails said:
So I went to Drudge report...

They have top headlines saying flashback: Dukakis led HW by 17 points after DNC, and Carter led Reagan by 4 points after DNC. I did a wiki, and
Click to expand...

Hearing this a lot since the Gallup/Ras polls came out. Iran Contra fucked Carter, and Dukakis was done in by the tank pic/Willie Horton. I agree debates matter, but I just see 1988 as a totally different ball game. Also Romney camp choosing to do foreign policy as the third and final debate seems dumb.

Gattsu25 said:
Just got back after watching the President give a speech in FL. The atmosphere was AMAZING!!!
Click to expand...

Watching this now on CSPAN, I always love the jackasses filming everything on an iPad.
 
A

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
Romney would keep key parts of health-care reform

http://www.washingtonpost.com/romne...7e0582-fa7b-11e1-ab03-6dd8b366b547_story.html

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney says that while he intends to dismantle the Obama administration’s health-care law if elected, he will retain several key provisions, including coverage for preexisting conditions.

In an interview aired Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Romney said his health-care overhaul will also allow families to cover adult children with their policies through age 26 and include access to coverage for unemployed people seeking insurance. Both are part of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, signed into law by Obama in 2010.
Click to expand...
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
RustyNails said:
So I went to Drudge report...

They have top headlines saying flashback: Dukakis led HW by 17 points after DNC, and Carter led Reagan by 4 points after DNC. I did a wiki, and

This is the famous debate where Reagan looked into the TV and said "Are you better off now than you were four years ago? Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago? Is America as respected throughout the world as it was? Do you feel that our security is as safe, that we're as strong as we were four years ago? And if you answer all of those questions 'yes', why then, I think your choice is very obvious as to whom you will vote for. If you don't agree, if you don't think that this course that we've been on for the last four years is what you would like to see us follow for the next four, then I could suggest another choice that you have."
As for HW vs Dukakis, Willie Horton did him in. Also the rape question during the debates.

What to learn from all of this is that debates do matter.
Click to expand...

Dukakis/Bush was 24 years ago, and the DNC was in July, and there was no 24-hour news culture, or internet. Bush led Dukakis by two points in September. Carter was leading Reagan by six in September, but as codhand mentioned, the Iran hostage crisis really did him in. File that one under "external circumstances". In every election since at least 1972--except for Reagan/Carter--the candidate leading in September has won the election.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Matthew Gallant said:
Some hilarious prognostication in that thread.

"It's gonna be Hillary vs. Giuliani"
Click to expand...

I still think had Giuliani run he would be the candidate this year.

RustyNails said:
So I went to Drudge report...

They have top headlines saying flashback: Dukakis led HW by 17 points after DNC, and Carter led Reagan by 4 points after DNC.
Click to expand...

Of course Drudge has those headlines.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
I'm assuming Obama's boost is more about reassembling his base than convincing independents to vote for him, although that's probably happening too.

I heard "register to vote" as a google search doubled after his speech.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Wonder how conservatives are going to cope with Rasmussen fixing their models right before election day so they can pretend they're a credible pollster.
 
A

Averon

Member
Well, some conservatives think Obama threatened Gallup because they reported low polling numbers for him. Not surprised they're going after PPP a well.

The right is so convinced Obama will lose that any result besides that, or anything that points in that direction, is some grand conspiracy or evil liberal plot.
 
P

Paches

Member
Averon said:
Well, some conservatives think Obama threatened Gallup because they reported low polling numbers for him. Not surprised they're going after PPP a well.

The right is so convinced Obama will lose that any result besides that, or anything that points in that direction, is some grand conspiracy or evil liberal plot.
Click to expand...

Threatened? What is he going to do to them, send in SEAL Team 6?
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Averon said:
Well, some conservatives think Obama threatened Gallup because they reported low polling numbers for him. Not surprised they're going after PPP a well.

The right is so convinced Obama will lose that any result besides that, or anything that points in that direction, is some grand conspiracy or evil liberal plot.
Click to expand...

The most disturbing thing about this thought process is that it makes no sense for Obama to bribe or threaten any pollster -- he doesn't need to win the polls, he needs to win the votes. They have completely lost track of the idea that these numbers are not scores.
 
C

Clevinger

Member
So Romney has already flipped on his Obamacare flip flop re:pre-existing conditions and children on parents' plans:

In reference to how Romney would deal with those preexisting conditions and young adults who want to remain on their parents’ plans, a Romney aide responded that there had been no change in Romney’s position and that “in a competitive environment, the marketplace will make available plans that include coverage for what there is demand for. He was not proposing a federal mandate to require insurance plans to offer those particular features.”
Click to expand...

It didn't even take 24 hours.

"I'm sorry, did you think I'd force insurance companies to do those things? Heavens no. Free market magic will fix those."
 
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