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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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Averon

Member
It's been 1 day!

Romney's bounce didn't appear the next day either.

Good grief!

Seriously. If the VP debate moved the needle at all, which I'm not convinced it did because I don't think voters decide their vote on VP debates, you wouldn't see it until Sunday at the very earliest.

Eh, even in the post-convention polling, PPP only had Obama +5 I think. +2 or +3 is ok.

Good point. PPP never had Obama with an overwhelming lead in Ohio. If they showed Obama up only by 2-3 points tomorrow instead of 5, then count Obama fortunate.
 

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
Don't put it all on the debates. The correct way to think of what just happened is as a bad debate coupled with an inevitable correction. A good chunk of the losses, as noted, were voters that were always going to vote for Romney finally polling well. Couple that with the losses from the lousy debate and the dampened enthusiasm, it looks like a huge swing. But really it's just a return to the mean, and maybe a little past that. Momentum is a lie.

Remember, even with every swing state 50/50, Obama is pretty favored to win.

That doesn't explain the obama drop though.

I'm not putting it all on the debates. But apparently there are tens of millions of american voters who are changing their mind after months of being turned off from Romney, not because of some catastrophic event, but because of one 90 minute debate. I know the american people are stupid and have the memory span of a goldfish, but I thought a swing like what we've seen wouldn't happen after just one debate. It would take 2 or 3 at the minimum.

I mean, this is a guy who has had nothing but bad things happening for months. Lies, attacks on medicare, attacks on the poor, throwing people under the buses in favor of businesses, out of touch moments with rural, urban, and suburban communities.... and yet people forget about it after one debate?

Apparently people are even dumber than I gave them credit for.
 

Measley

Junior Member

Except people have been voting in Ohio for almost two weeks now, and Romney has never led in the state. The polls tightening means squat. Ohio is the new Pennsylvania.

One of the problems as I see it is that all of Obama's Bain / tax attacks seem so passé now. They really blew their load early. These days whenever I see an article or an ad about how Mitt killed babies at Bain and has offshore accounts in the Caymans I tune out. I imagine the electorate is pretty becoming more and more immune to it all too.

We could say the same about Romney's "40+ months of unemployment being at 8%", which was frankly a more potent line of attack. Now Romney's gone back to just saying the president failed and made the economy worse.
 

isoquant

Member
That doesn't explain the obama drop though.

I'm I know the american people are stupid and have the memory span of a goldfish, but I thought a swing like what we've seen wouldn't happen after just one debate. It would take 2 or 3 at the minimum.

Apparently people are even dumber than I gave them credit for.

People say this all the time and it really is ridiculous.

How can you make comments like these, and then pretend to be outraged when Romney writes off 47% of this country?
 

isoquant

Member
We could say the same about Romney's "40+ months of unemployment being at 8%", which was frankly a more potent line of attack. Now Romney's gone back to just saying the president failed and made the economy worse.

In many ways I agree. Hence why we never saw the needle move much in Romney's favour when bad unemployment numbers were released. The media always skipped over the story quite quickly, and so did the public, because everyone was used to it.
 

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
Perhaps liberals would be better served by not talking about how stupid Americans are all of the time.

Yes, let's talk about how great america is while the rest of the world continues to outpace us in education and when we're still debating over whether not being left to die on the streets shoould be a right or a privilege.

If someone like Mitt Romney and his medicare-destroying VP can get elected after shitting upon basically every voting bloc in the country half a dozen times, the american people deserve to be called stupid. Because they are.
 
It's been 1 day!

Romney's bounce didn't appear the next day either.

Good grief!

Everybody also said Romney's bounce would be gone after Sunday last week. It seems to have gotten better...Now the argument has switched to these are ARG and Ras polls so let us dismiss them.

All this just underscores what a poor job Obama did. If he loses the election, that is all he will be remembered for. It is my worst nightmares from before the debate coming true. At this point what seems to be happening is that while Obama now enjoys good approval rating, people see Romney as more of a leader after Obama's performance in the last debate. Or maybe it is all an enthusiasm problem and hopefully Dems get more enthusiasm after Tuesday's debate (best case scenario).

It doesn't look like Obama has anything new to attack Romney with in ads. Although, I haven't seen them make use of "Don't care about the poor", "Corporations are people", etc. statements yet.
 
Yep - expressing pessimism means I want Romney to win.

Nice edit...I won't re-post it cause I have no issue with you personally.

Not sure why you are lashing out at me, man.

I didn't make the polls the way they are right now.

Everybody also said Romney's bounce would be gone after Sunday last week. It seems to have gotten better...Now the argument has switched to these are ARG and Ras polls so let us dismiss them.

All this just underscores what a poor job Obama did. If he loses the election, that is all he will be remembered for.

If he loses the election, sure.

You guys are acting like the election is on Tuesday.

If the ground game is what the sources say it is, then Obama could still win it. If not, he won't.
 

Measley

Junior Member
Yes, let's talk about how great america is while the rest of the world continues to outpace us in education and when we're still debating over whether not being left to die on the streets shoould be a right or a privilege.

If someone like Mitt Romney and his medicare-destroying VP can get elected after shitting upon basically every voting bloc in the country half a dozen times, the american people deserve to be called stupid. Because they are.

I'm forced to agree. Especially Tea Party Republicans who are pretty much voting for Romney for no real reason beyond the fact that he isn't Obama.

Or in the case of that guy at Romney's rally in Lancaster today, because he's white.

Everybody also said Romney's bounce would be gone after Sunday last week. It seems to have gotten better...

All this just underscores what a poor job Obama did. If he loses the election, that is all he will be remembered for.

Or maybe, just maybe it shows that the media wants this to be a close race for ratings.

Obama didn't do as bad as the media would have you believe.
 
Nice edit...I won't re-post it cause I have no issue with you personally.

Not sure why you are lashing out at me, man.

I didn't make the polls the way they are right now.

No you didn't make the polls the way they are now.

However, I take issue with the fact that you view me as a fucking Republican.

That is a fucking insult to me. These are the people who paint me as a fucking terrorist because of the color of my skin.
 

isoquant

Member
GaimeGuy isn't running to be the most powerful person in the country.

Terrible argument.

GaimeGuy being a neogaf poster and not a presidential candidate means that, yes, we judge his comments against a much lower standard. It still makes him - and all other liberals who act the same - flaming hypocrites.
 
No you didn't make the polls the way they are now.

However, I take issue with the fact that you view me as a fucking Republican.

That is a fucking insult to me. These are the people who paint me as a fucking terrorist because of the color of my skin.

Uh...you don't have to be a Republican to want to see Obama lose.

"Some men just want to watch the world burn..."
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Terrible argument.

GaimeGuy being a neogaf poster and not a presidential candidate means that, yes, we judge his comments against a much lower standard. It still makes him - and all other liberals who act the same - flaming hypocrites.

There is a difference between thinking people are morons and writing them off completely. You can think someone's a goddamn dumbass but still have their back when they need you.
 
Yet, because I express worry about the election you view me as someone who wants to see Obama lose.

Why would I want to see something happen that's against my interest?

This all started with you saying that Biden had zero effect like it's a fact and we have no idea if that is even true at all.

Just calm down a bit.

We will know a lot more on Tuesday night.
 

smurfx

get some go again
wouldn't early registration also hurt obama? since mitt got his huge bounce right around the time it started.
 

Averon

Member
So much self-loathing and defeatism. Democrats and liberals truly are wimps. Can't take adversity at all. Sometimes I wonder if Dems and liberals enjoy being losers. Seems to be a mindset that's deeply ingrained in this party. Contrast that to the GOP and conservatives who project victory even when they lose. At least they don't wallow in self-loathing and defeatism for long. They immediately get back out their to try and win at any cost.
 

pigeon

Banned
That doesn't explain the obama drop though.

Yes it does, for a variety of reasons -- dampened Democratic enthusiasm is important to consider, but there's also the fact that likely voter models (like Gallup's) are vulnerable to enthusiasm shifts in both directions. Again, with Gallup, if twenty previously nonvoting Democrats rate at 5/7 all of a sudden, and ten previously voting Republicans go from 5/7 to 6/7, that's very likely to look like an improvement for the Republicans -- because if enthusiasm generally increases, the people who are extremely enthusiastic end up crowding out the people who are just very enthusiastic. But are they really going to be overrepresented at the voting booth as much as they might be in the polls?
 
So much self-loathing and defeatism. Democrats and liberals truly are wimps. Can't take adversity at all. Sometimes I wonder if Dems and liberals enjoy being losers. Seems to be a mindset that's deeply ingrained in this party.

It really is bizarre.

Like I said earlier, even their surrogates on TV like Ed Schultz and Chris Matthews feed into this behavior when they have meltdowns on live television, kicking and screaming like children that didn't get their favorite toy at the exact moment they wanted it.
 

demon

I don't mean to alarm you but you have dogs on your face
It really is bizarre.

Like I said earlier, even their surrogates on TV like Ed Schultz and Chris Matthews feed into this behavior when they have meltdowns on live television, kicking and screaming like children that didn't get their favorite toy at the exact moment they wanted it.

Chris Matthews' meltdown after the debate was embarrassing.
 
Sounds like Obama's Ohio firewall is pretty much over. It's a close toss-up state, again. Obviously the early vote edge will play a big role in stemming the bleeding, but it's no guarantee of victory.

This race could pretty much be over depending on what happens on tuesday.
 

XenodudeX

Junior Member
It really is bizarre.

Like I said earlier, even their surrogates on TV like Ed Schultz and Chris Matthews feed into this behavior when they have meltdowns on live television, kicking and screaming like children that didn't get their favorite toy at the exact moment they wanted it.

Yeah the left and Obama himself are to blame here.
 

pigeon

Banned
Sounds like Obama's Ohio firewall is pretty much over. It's a close toss-up state, again. Obviously the early vote edge will play a big role in stemming the bleeding, but it's no guarantee of victory.

This race could pretty much be over depending on what happens on tuesday.

I thought you would be less intolerable if things were doing worse, but actually it just makes you more intolerable. There's no happy medium!
 
Chris Matthews' meltdown after the debate was embarrassing.

In my opinion, that did more damage to Obama than his debating demeanor did. If I was watching msnbc (as a loyal viewer) and one of the talking heads on there was melting down like that, it would shape the narrative in my head to make the outcome significantly worst than it was.

You have to maintain some professionalism.
 

Angry Fork

Member
So much self-loathing and defeatism. Democrats and liberals truly are wimps. Can't take adversity at all. Sometimes I wonder if Dems and liberals enjoy being losers. Seems to be a mindset that's deeply ingrained in this party.

I partly agree and it's why liberals annoy me but then if you're a communist or socialist you're labeled as too violent/radical to be taken seriously. I'd like democrats to be more vitriolic and strong but Biden did his best with what the party has to offer. The problem is the party program itself is weak as a leftist party.

There's also the fact that if republicans won house/senate normal people would legitimately be in trouble so it's not surprising if dems rage easily and take things seriously. If democrats won house/senate nobody has to worry except racists bigots and millionaires/billionaires.

edit - And there's more false blaming. Chris Matthews meltdown was because he was pissed that Obama was acting like a punk and not going after Romney. The wimpiness you describe is what leftists feel Obama is. When people like Matthews call Obama out on it then you say Matthews is embarrassing? What do you want? Do you want all democrats to act the same? Do you want Matthews to say Obama was great if he doesn't feel he was? Who cares how he acts, Obama should be getting the spotlight for being weak on issues not leftists for raging about it.
 
In my opinion, that did more damage to Obama than his debating demeanor did. If I was watching msnbc (as a loyal viewer) and one of the talking heads on there was melting down like that, it would shape the narrative in my head to make the outcome significantly worst than it was.

You have to maintain some professionalism.

Agreed, the biggest issue coming out of Obama's performance has been Dem Enthusiasm...it needs to be reignited. And only Obama can do it Tuesday.

Even Media, all it is doing is reporting on Romney's crap. I have seen more twitter pictures of Romney's rallies in past week than I ever did in 3 weeks prior. They are reporting more on what Romney is saying too.

That's why horse race narratives matter. They feed into themselves.
 

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
Mitt romney called 47% of the country lazy pieces of shit that don't care about doing anything with their lives. He may not have used those words, but that was what he was saying when he said that they can't be convinced to better themselves. Furthermore, he said that his job as president is not to worry about them.

These are mostly soldiers, the disabled, and the elderly. Who the fuck throws grandpa and the troops under the bus? What kind of a person votes for a man like that?

Mitt romney should be polling in the single digits. Which he is in basically every country except america. That's not including the fact that he's insulted our allies, politicized an attack on a diplomatic official (and smirked about the attack), made his money through outsourcing, laments about his skin color because he thinks that's what keeps latinos from voting for him, wants us to get involved in another war, dodges policy like the fucking devil, changes his rhetoric like a game of hot potato, lies, does things like say "Who let the dogs out? " when posing with black people or accuse a woman of trying to pass off cookies from the 7-11 as her own homemade cookies, has a VP who wants to eliminate Medicare, advocated raising taxes on the middle class and poor and lowering them for the rich, made a campaign strategy out of lying, and i'm forgetting tons of things, and this is all forgiven because he looked "aggressive" for 90 minutes?

What the fuck is wrong with this country?

Oh no, I point this out and say people are stupid, and that makes me a hypocrite, you say. No, it makes me someone who expects better than idiocracy. Forgive me for expecting more than that from my homeland and countrymen. I don't think Romney will win, but I am fucking outraged at how many people seem to have switched. There's a reason why romney's numbers were so low, because he said heatless thing after heartless thing for months on end. It angers me that millions of people would throw that all away because he conducted himself like a used car salesman for 90 minutes.
 
Also, as someone else pointed out, I am also worried that Obama has not got anything new to attack Romney with in these 3 weeks. I actually think he also needs to talk up his plan more, the vivid comparison between Romney's plan and his and tie Romney's plan to Bush's.
 
That's why horse race narratives matter. They feed into themselves.

That's why I said earlier that, the media wet dream is that Obama comes "storming back" on Tuesday.

That would lay the groundwork for a must see Debate #3.

And believe me, if that happens, the FP debate will be the highest rated debate of the season.
 

Averon

Member
I mean the reaction to the first debate and the veep debate between the left and right is night and day. Did you see Fox melting down after the clobbering Ryan receive by Biden? No. Did you see GOP surrogates fiercely defending Ryan, refusing to give Biden the debate win? Yes.

What did we see from the left after the first debate? MSNBC melting down, feeding into the "Obama fucked it all up" narrative. Dem surrogates virtually AWOL, and liberal forums, blogs, news sites further feeding into the defeatist narrative.

When Dems are down, even if it's a little bit, their immediate reaction is to give in to defeat.
When the GOP are down, they continue to fight, not letting the bleakness of the situation get them down.
 
edit - And there's more false blaming. Chris Matthews meltdown was because he was pissed that Obama was acting like a punk and not going after Romney. The wimpiness you describe is what leftists feel Obama is. When people like Matthews call Obama out on it then you say Matthews is embarrassing? What do you want? Do you want all democrats to act the same? Do you want Matthews to say Obama was great if he doesn't feel he was? Who cares how he acts, Obama should be getting the spotlight for being weak on issues not leftists for raging about it.

I want Chris Matthews to act like a journalist and not a whining fanboy.

Shocking, I know!
 

TiVo

Member
Mitt romney called 47% of the country lazy pieces of shit that don't care about doing anything with their lives. He may not have used those words, but that was what he was saying when he said that they can't be convinced to better themselves. Furthermore, he said that his job as president is not to worry about them.

These are mostly soldiers, the disabled, and the elderly. Who the fuck throws grandpa and the troops under the bus? What kind of a person votes for a man like that?

Mitt romney should be polling in the single digits. Which he is in basically every country except america. That's not including the fact that he's insulted our allies, politicized an attack on a diplomatic official (and smirked about the attack), made his money through outsourcing, laments about his skin color because he thinks that's what keeps latinos from voting for him, wants us to get involved in another war, dodges policy like the fucking devil, changes his rhetoric like a game of hot potato, lies, does things like say "Who let the dogs out? " when posing with black people or accuse a woman of trying to pass off cookies from the 7-11 as her own homemade cookies, has a VP who wants to eliminate Medicare, advocated raising taxes on the middle class and poor and lowering them for the rich, made a campaign strategy out of lying, and i'm forgetting tons of things, and this is all forgiven because he looked "aggressive" for 90 minutes?

What the fuck is wrong with this country?

Oh no, I point this out and say people are stupid, and that makes me a hypocrite, you say. No, it makes me someone who expects better than idiocracy. Forgive me for expecting more than that from my homeland and countrymen.


Same feeling here.
How is Todd Akin in the running.
How do Seniors support anyone who will "Fuck with their Medicare"
How do people support a straight up lying flip-flopper.

Obama has one bad night and the undecided voters are now decided. The women voters want a man in charge of their vaginas. Just waiting for the 0% of black support for Romney to go to 50/50 or more.
 

Jackson50

Member
I stand corrected. What's interesting to note about that is Nixon is believed to have won the other two debates, but tied the last one.

But Obama is no Nixon, and Romney is no Kennedy.
The 1960 debates occupy a position in American political lore incommensurate with the evidence. Not that the debates, particularly the first debate, did not contribute to Kennedy's victory. Rather, the evidence is insufficient to identify an effect with any certainty.
Ground game helps but at best adds about 1% at most based on Silvers analysis post-2008. If Obama is down 2-3% ground game advantages won't save him.
1% is probably the lower bound given the magnitude of Obama's advantage. Although, when estimating minute differences, imprecision is likely. Also, as I recall, Silver's analysis was not especially rigorous. Other research suggests varying magnitudes. But what's evident is that a superior campaign organization provides an advantage. And if the election is close, it could prove decisive.
This is why I'm not freaking out. Early voting + Obama's ground game means Romney will have to perform significantly better than the polls are currently showing for him to overcomes those two Obama advantages.
Obama's lead in early voting is partially a function of his organizational advantage. Campaigns are instrumental in registering voters and educating them on procedure. Whether his advantage can buttress his campaign is unknown. But I would bet on a superior organization in a close election.
 

demon

I don't mean to alarm you but you have dogs on your face
edit - And there's more false blaming. Chris Matthews meltdown was because he was pissed that Obama was acting like a punk and not going after Romney. The wimpiness you describe is what leftists feel Obama is. When people like Matthews call Obama out on it then you say Matthews is embarrassing? What do you want? Do you want all democrats to act the same? Do you want Matthews to say Obama was great if he doesn't feel he was? Who cares how he acts, Obama should be getting the spotlight for being weak on issues not leftists for raging about it.

Christ Matthews is not a poster on neogaf. He is a major figure on a major news network and instead of acting like a professional journalist he threw a tantrum because "his team" (wait isn't this the news?) fucked up. Cable news is a cocksucking joke. Of course that's nothing new.
 

Measley

Junior Member
I mean the reaction to the first debate and the veep debate between the left and right is night and day. Did you see Fox melting down after the clobbering Ryan receive by Biden? No. Did you see GOP surrogates fiercely defending Ryan, refusing to give Biden the debate win? Yes.

What did we see from the left after the first debate? MSNBC melting down, feeding into the "Obama fucked it all up" narrative. Dem surrogates virtually AWOL, and liberal forums, blogs, news sites further feeding into the defeatist narrative.

When Dems are down, even if it's a little bit, their immediate reaction is to give in to defeat.
When the GOP are down, they continue to fight, not letting the bleakness of the situation get them down.

Republicans behind in the polls; "The polls are lies! Romney is going to win this thing no matter what!"

Democrats behind in the polls;
onoz_zpse1a6c532.gif
 

Gotchaye

Member
edit - And there's more false blaming. Chris Matthews meltdown was because he was pissed that Obama was acting like a punk and not going after Romney. The wimpiness you describe is what leftists feel Obama is. When people like Matthews call Obama out on it then you say Matthews is embarrassing? What do you want? Do you want all democrats to act the same? Do you want Matthews to say Obama was great if he doesn't feel he was? Who cares how he acts, Obama should be getting the spotlight for being weak on issues not leftists for raging about it.
My problem with this argument that (I think) you've been making in this thread for the last few days is that you don't seem willing to allow that people sometimes mess up. Obama deserves blame if he fell short of what he should have done, but obviously the expectation can't be that the Democrat must run a perfect campaign. And, really, the Obama campaign was generally excellent up until that debate.

What people are pointing out to you is that if conservatives are willing to cover for their guy when he screws up and liberals aren't, then that gives the Republican a substantial advantage; he can run a worse campaign and still get elected. When conservatives with platforms all say the Democrat sucked, and liberals with platforms all say the Democrat sucked, guess what low-information voters are going to take home. It's not crazy to suggest that liberals with platforms should keep their influence on low-information voters in mind when they talk about politics; I note that you're already suggesting that one liberal needs to modify his presentation in order to help the Democrats win the election.

I don't think MSNBC even needs to try to sell Obama as having crushed Romney in the debate. They just need to not talk about Obama losing the debate. Their first, second, and third reactions should have been outrage at Mitt Romney lying to the American people for an hour and a half.
 

East Lake

Member
Oh no, I point this out and say people are stupid, and that makes me a hypocrite, you say. No, it makes me someone who expects better than idiocracy. Forgive me for expecting more than that from my homeland and countrymen.
The average person is pretty stupid and willfully ignorant, even I am pretty stupid in a lot of ways, but I think this is a lot like lamenting about fox news being biased at this point. It's a known problem. Mittens knew how to sell his bs, and Barack laid an egg. People aren't going to magically turn into geniuses and Obama isn't unaware of this. It's his fault.
 
I don't think MSNBC even needs to try to sell Obama as having crushed Romney in the debate. They just need to not talk about Obama losing the debate. Their first, second, and third reactions should have been outrage at Mitt Romney lying to the American people for an hour and a half.

DING DING DING

Rachel Maddow was the most mature journalist on the panel that night. She was starting to break down the debate (and the lies) when Chris and Ed hit DEF-CON 5 and the bottom fell out.
 

Darkgran

Member
Mitt romney called 47% of the country lazy pieces of shit that don't care about doing anything with their lives. He may not have used those words, but that was what he was saying when he said that they can't be convinced to better themselves. Furthermore, he said that his job as president is not to worry about them.

These are mostly soldiers, the disabled, and the elderly. Who the fuck throws grandpa and the troops under the bus? What kind of a person votes for a man like that?

Mitt romney should be polling in the single digits. Which he is in basically every country except america. That's not including the fact that he's insulted our allies, politicized an attack on a diplomatic official (and smirked about the attack), made his money through outsourcing, laments about his skin color because he thinks that's what keeps latinos from voting for him, wants us to get involved in another war, dodges policy like the fucking devil, changes his rhetoric like a game of hot potato, lies, does things like say "Who let the dogs out? " when posing with black people or accuse a woman of trying to pass off cookies from the 7-11 as her own homemade cookies, has a VP who wants to eliminate Medicare, advocated raising taxes on the middle class and poor and lowering them for the rich, made a campaign strategy out of lying, and i'm forgetting tons of things, and this is all forgiven because he looked "aggressive" for 90 minutes?

What the fuck is wrong with this country?

Oh no, I point this out and say people are stupid, and that makes me a hypocrite, you say. No, it makes me someone who expects better than idiocracy. Forgive me for expecting more than that from my homeland and countrymen. I don't think Romney will win, but I am fucking outraged at how many people seem to have switched. There's a reason why romney's numbers were so low, because he said heatless thing after heartless thing for months on end. It angers me that millions of people would throw that all away because he conducted himself like a used car salesman for 90 minutes.


It really is amazing when you think about it.

90 minutes of lying his ass off and the American people LOVE it. The problem is this....a TON of people DO NOT do any research. They are told something and think "sounds about right" and move on.

I still think Obama is going to win, It is just going to be way closer than it had to be.
 
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