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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Or at the very least just after Romney and Co starting using the stupid line about us being over 8% unemployment for however long they were saying.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I know, I'm just humoring this story which is based on the idea that all these numbers are hidden on the same shelf somewhere, and Obama's Chicago plumbers busted in and revised them at the same time.
Also as I said in the jobs report thread, I wouldn't be surprised if the number shot back up to 8% next month since it's based on such a large increase in part time work.
Another thing: why didn't Obama manipulate the date earlier, like in 2010 lol
Aaron Strife
Banned
I asked the same thing about Osama bin Laden when everyone on the right was accusing him of using the OBL mission for political gain.
Gee, it's too bad there wasn't an election 6 months prior to the mission that would have boosted Obama's image and helped Democrats down the ticket...
If Obama's goons really are manipulating events to help his re-election, they're doing a bad job of it.
It's so liberals like you can argue for why it's not a conspiracy.
Buddha Beam
Banned
I think they're mentioning it from a strictly political fight perspective. The reality is that people, rightly or wrongly, are concerned about the deficiet, or at the very least, it's a political issue whether we like or not.
It's just being pointed out as another potential feather that can be removed from the republican's narrative.
Hobbestetrician
Member
Dat 11-dimension chess.
"Use the RoboRomney service to fill in your positions on issues from abortion to the economy to gun-control, and the system will mine a database of real Romney quotes to produce a position paper in which the candidate agrees with everything you say."
Ok that is amazing.
Black Republican
Member
So if Ayman al-Zawahiri is killed sometime this month would it also be a October Obama conspiracy?
MasterShotgun
brazen editing lynx
I kinda like the Romney I picked.
VanMardigan
has calmed down a bit.
I like this. You can make Romney be a candidate you'd actually vote for!!
No. He's small beans. Maybe if they assassinated Saif al-Adel, though.
Emphasizing his flip flops could be effective as it highlights the radical shift of the Republicans; we're talking margins here, but every advantage helps. Romney's acutely vulnerable in that respect. That's why he endeavored to appear moderate on Wednesday. But now that he's pivoted hard, I expect the Obama campaign to stress the radicalism of the Republicans. I was disappointed that immigration was omitted from the debate as it's more difficult for Romney to pivot on that issue. I expect the town hall to yield a few uncomfortable moments for Romney.
He would be less bad than the current version. But good? Hell no.
empty vessel
Member
I don't agree, but, regardless, progressives have to stop reinforcing conservative economic myths. When somebody says--wrongly or rightly--that Obama has doubled the deficit, a progressive ought not, as the author of that post describes, run to the internet to tweet "Obama did NOT Double the Deficit - it's actually come *Down* since Bush left Office #Debate2012." While there is nothing wrong with correcting a misstatement of fact, there is a shared (false) understanding going on here between the misstater and the correcter that doubling the deficit would have been a bad thing (hence the felt need for the correction in the first place). An actually progressive response to the misstatement would have been: "Obama has not increased the deficit, and we are worse off because of it. #Debate2012."
eBay Huckster
Member
Okay, now that I'm done with the nuclear hellscape that is the LSAT...
The TPM aggregate, much like the RCP aggregate, is a straight aggregate of polls regardless of their actual reliability, and the two showing Romney advantages thus far in OH/FL/VA 1) have been very suspect in that department over the last two cycles and 2) barely showed a shift from their previous polls in each state in the first place.
So first it was 47%, then it was 30%, and now it's 60%... they're even flipflopping on how many Americans are "moochers"!
I was just under the cutoff this time!
I think I've already posted this.
The TPM aggregate, much like the RCP aggregate, is a straight aggregate of polls regardless of their actual reliability, and the two showing Romney advantages thus far in OH/FL/VA 1) have been very suspect in that department over the last two cycles and 2) barely showed a shift from their previous polls in each state in the first place.
A six point swing by a pollster who has apparently conducted six polls for current races in its entire history? No big deal.
So first it was 47%, then it was 30%, and now it's 60%... they're even flipflopping on how many Americans are "moochers"!
Aaron Strife
Banned
Reuters/Ipsos poll is 47-45 Obama, both a point ticked up from yesterday.
Before the debate it was 47-41, so I have to imagine most of the gains are from Republicans coming home to Romney.
Before the debate it was 47-41, so I have to imagine most of the gains are from Republicans coming home to Romney.
eBay Huckster
Member
Got a kick out of this while reading the Globe and Mail.
The photo matches the headline perfectly.
Usually I don't like the G&M's political stories (for that, I prefer the Star), but that juxtaposition is all kinds of perfect.
I hope PD/Diablos don't make me summon Black Mamba again
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Better than Obama, surely. Or do you consider Obama good?
Romney is a man of no convictions. He wouldn't stand up to any of the crazies in the house and senate.
eBay Huckster
Member
I don't know, even Completely-Liberal Romney is a push at best based on the quotes' relation to Obama's policy positions (and definitely worse in the case of DADT)
ryutaro's mama
Member
My favorite part about the Republican narrative on Obama is how he can simultaneously be a lazy, stupid man AND the mastermind of a complex labor report lie.
eBay Huckster
Member
...wait, their narrative is that he's a quantum candidate?
Is there no flaw of their own candidates they won't project?
PhoenixDark
Banned
Reminds me of the liberal theories about the utterly dysfunctional Bush administration managing to pull off the greatest terrorist attack and cover up of all time.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Liberal Romney actually seems like a decent person, but I get the feeling he's lying to me, or hiding something far more sinister.
His positions don't even matter to me. It is him signing anything that comes through a republican controlled congress that is issue #1, with Supreme Court nominees being a very very close #2.
Good post, Kosmo.
Are those liberal theories? There's a distinct strain of such paranoia on the far right, though.
Surely not. Obama's adequate. But I'm comfortable with him as head of state. I've no faith in Romney's ability to direct our foreign policy
eBay Huckster
Member
(okay ebay huckster, resist the urge to respond to PD)
it's not even that his positions don't matter for me, it's that at best his positions wouldn't matter, and reality is clearly not analogous to 'at best' here
it's not even that his positions don't matter for me, it's that at best his positions wouldn't matter, and reality is clearly not analogous to 'at best' here
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
I'm not talking about Romney. I am talking about "Romney"
And "Romney" would be better than Obama, although "Romney" only exists in the past, present, and future, so it would be hard to pin him down on anything.
eBay Huckster
Member
Romney is the Twelfth Doctor confirmed
his real foreign policy is to troll his enemies into killing themselves for him!
Aaron Strife
Banned
hrmmmmmm.
eBay Huckster
Member
but what does this mean for the DOOM factor?
Aaron Strife
Banned
I guess I'm approaching this from the left while you're approaching this from the right because I disagree on "Romney" being better than Obama on economic, social, and/or foreign principles.
"Romney" is in the same boat as 2000 era McCain before Bush stole his soul. Both are okay moderates you'd like to argue/debate against instead of the fuckups we have in Congress today (including modern day McCain), but I still wouldn't want them to be President even if I was guaranteed they wouldn't fall off a cliff into right-wing crazy territory.
I'm compromising enough with Obama.
Black Mamba
Member
You are aware that the deficit can come down simply because of higher tax receipts due to positive economic circumstances.
I'm obviously not saying that's the case now, but your blanket statement is not correct.
It wasn't just liberal theories. A lot of that also come from the ron paul nutters.
Tie goes to the better looking, so I win!
for real.
i'm hesitant to say too much since my algorithm is proprietary, but suffice to say it includes all relevant statistical data encompassing national and state polls in addition to important economic metrics. where my model diverges, however, is that instead of relying solely on empirical data points i also factor in considerations such as twitter mentions, fb posts, and fundraising numbers, among other things, to conclude within a 3.5% margin of error who will win.
I have to admit that I'm still Diablosing a bit right now, so more of this please.
edit: "Debates don't really matter" is backed up by some decent data, but there's always the chance that every election can have different dynamics at play.
So if this debate really only gives Romney a temporary bump after the coverage we got wed/thurs, I will be so damn happy. The world will feel right again!
RustyNails
Member
PD, learn from master.
Aaron Strife
Banned
We'll find out tonight when PPP releases their poll of Wisconsin. They said Romney gained a bit from the debates, but we'll see if it lets him win. If Obama is still up by a significant margin (3-5 points) I'm not going to worry.
Ipsos' RV spread is 47-41 Obama, also.
eBay Huckster
Member
I get the feeling that awareness is factored into that statement already - EV's posting on this tack so far in OT4 seems to be disdain for 'progressives' that are celebrating lower net government spending when that level's already suboptimal... and in the case of higher tax receipts, that level would remain suboptimal.
(And this interpretation probably isn't quite accurate.)
High quality trolling in a low enough quantity that you won't get tired of it, but high enough to keep you hooked!
(Emphasis on high quality.)
empty vessel
Member
The only "blanket statement" I made was that blanket statements (or beliefs) about government deficits (net government spending) being bad are wrong and anti-progressive. Reread what I wrote.
The Librarian
Banned
I think what really puts Ingonito's trolling above PD's is that his are genuinely funny while PD's come off as annoying most of the time.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Fair enough.
I think Romney'll get a tiny bounce from a few undecideds from the debate, but not much more. The crosstabs from some of the debate polls showed he mostly made his base confident, but didn't shift much. Along with that, Obama's done a good job painting him as someone you can't trust. The 47% video did this, too. So, even though he commanded the debate, I think there was still probably enough skepticism to not erode Obama's support too terribly much.
Along with that, the Big Bird thing helps I think. It doesn't sway anyone, but it kind of muddied up the water and drew media attention away from just hammering the Romney win all day. Getting people to laugh at Romney is always a good thing for Obama.
And last, the tick down in unemployment will help with some of that transfer that may have occurred after the debate. Today newspaper headlines around here and I'd suspect through most of the country were of that. I'm sure there are a few of those undecideds thinking "Well, maybe he can't debate, but things are getting a bit better."
Not say the silly big bird thing or the unemployment tick would have done anything on their own. They just help plug the hole a little bit. I think Obama got pretty lucky there. He really can't suffer another debate loss like that, though. Luckily I think if he wakes up even a little the media will jump on a comeback narrative for him, too. We'll see, though.
Also, I think Wisconsin's locked up. I really don't see Ohio flipping, because of the auto bailout, and Florida could be more in play with that medicare voucher quote from Romney. Actually that could be played in a few states and get a lot of traction.
Did that up there help? Also, look up Maddow's show from Thursday. Of all of the incumbent vs challenger debates in the TV era only one incumbent ever won the first debate narrative, and that was Clinton. It really isn't a huge deal. He excited his base, and gathered probably a few undecideds but that's about it. Obama still has a huge electoral firewall.
Now, if he fucks up the next debate feel free to panic a little, because I know I will.
As long as Baldwin stays up in Wisconsin I'm pretty confident in Obama winning, too. I really don't see that many Baldwin/Romney voters at all.
Aside from that, Obama's held his biggest rallies of the campaign season here.
Along with that, the Big Bird thing helps I think. It doesn't sway anyone, but it kind of muddied up the water and drew media attention away from just hammering the Romney win all day. Getting people to laugh at Romney is always a good thing for Obama.
And last, the tick down in unemployment will help with some of that transfer that may have occurred after the debate. Today newspaper headlines around here and I'd suspect through most of the country were of that. I'm sure there are a few of those undecideds thinking "Well, maybe he can't debate, but things are getting a bit better."
Not say the silly big bird thing or the unemployment tick would have done anything on their own. They just help plug the hole a little bit. I think Obama got pretty lucky there. He really can't suffer another debate loss like that, though. Luckily I think if he wakes up even a little the media will jump on a comeback narrative for him, too. We'll see, though.
Also, I think Wisconsin's locked up. I really don't see Ohio flipping, because of the auto bailout, and Florida could be more in play with that medicare voucher quote from Romney. Actually that could be played in a few states and get a lot of traction.
Did that up there help? Also, look up Maddow's show from Thursday. Of all of the incumbent vs challenger debates in the TV era only one incumbent ever won the first debate narrative, and that was Clinton. It really isn't a huge deal. He excited his base, and gathered probably a few undecideds but that's about it. Obama still has a huge electoral firewall.
Now, if he fucks up the next debate feel free to panic a little, because I know I will.
As long as Baldwin stays up in Wisconsin I'm pretty confident in Obama winning, too. I really don't see that many Baldwin/Romney voters at all.
Aside from that, Obama's held his biggest rallies of the campaign season here.
Yea those weren't just "liberal" theories. In fact I think its mainly a libertarian theory. The ron paul nutbags with the extreme distrust in government have completely taken it over.
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