Yup. I'm quite comfortable with this. And if Wisconsin is still with Obama at 49%, leading at perhaps Obama's weakest point in the race, then I feel pretty good about other swing states.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Yup. I'm quite comfortable with this. And if Wisconsin is still with Obama at 49%, leading at perhaps Obama's weakest point in the race, then I feel pretty good about other swing states.
No I am good,you do enough fro all of us.
That said, I'm under the assumption that these polls are taking into account at least 48 hours where Romney was looking like Republican Mondale-lite (*sigh* come back).
So is it safe to assume that some of Romney's momentum might not be fully captured in these polls because it's front-loaded with a couple days worth of things as they were before Obama looked down at his podium for an hour and a half?
So is it safe to assume that some of Romney's momentum might not be fully captured in these polls because it's front-loaded with a couple days worth of things as they were before Obama looked down at his podium for an hour and a half?
So frustrated with Intrade. I didn't get my money in until after the jobs number went out and Obama went over like $7 a share. Bought at $6.58 earlier thinking it couldn't get lower and now it's $6.47 a share. Worst part is it's likely to drop even lower until at least the VP debate unless we get some good poll numbers. Oh well, I get more money into my account on Monday.
It's really interesting to see the effect of news on the Intrade numbers. The unemployment numbers made a HUGE shift, but it was really shortlived.
It's really interesting to see the effect of news on the Intrade numbers. The unemployment numbers made a HUGE shift, but it was really shortlived.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Just stop.
eBay Huckster
Member
diablos is eternal
eBay Huckster
Member
so's dick morris
Actually I think he is a real life troll.
He must go to bed every night with such a huge grin on his face knowing he makes so much money making shit up.
eBay Huckster
Member
are you implying phoenixdark would be poliGAF's dick morris if he got paid for it?
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
So, one can make real money on intrade? It seems somewhat obvious to choose winners, right?
If I bought shares of Obama winning at 6.47 per share, and bought 10 shares, how do I win? Only by having Obama win, or do I wait til they are at like 8.5 or something then sell them to someone else?
If I bought shares of Obama winning at 6.47 per share, and bought 10 shares, how do I win? Only by having Obama win, or do I wait til they are at like 8.5 or something then sell them to someone else?
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
I'm certainly not the type to be swayed too much toward a politician based on how personable they are or things like that. I'm much more concerned with their policy and stances on issues. If I were that type, however, this video would most certainly have won me over :')
Barack and Michelle Anniversary
Barack and Michelle Anniversary
Sounds about right.
Black Mamba
Member
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...um/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Obama down to 80/90 in the model! OH NOES!!!!!!!!!
Obama down to 80/90 in the model! OH NOES!!!!!!!!!
eBay Huckster
Member
you know what this means?
JOEMENTUM IS BACK!
(also AlteredBeast really wasn't kidding about these primetime football games, good lord)
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
I believe either of the two options are possible. However, if Obama wins the market closes at $10, so there's obviously more to gain from holding out until the results rather than selling.
I cant take this!
I think this is what the map may end up looking like:
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=ESr
CO and VA are question marks to me right now, and I think he's gonna fall short in FL. NC is a lost cause.
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=ESr
CO and VA are question marks to me right now, and I think he's gonna fall short in FL. NC is a lost cause.
RIP America
Aaron Strife
Banned
PPP's polls started right after the debate.Diablos said:
And they already said his bounce dropped off today.
oh god.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Weird that the Now Cast is still in the 90s, especially with all the Romney noise in the polling.
I would think they'd be flipped and Romney would be at a higher percentage?
Help me out here, Mamba...
So perhaps by Wednesday or Thursday of the coming week we should have a better picture of things right since anything coming out now would include the debate and the day after where everyone was on the Romney bandwagon and only beginning to talk about his lying. They shouldn't include the "big bird" backlash, Obama speaking in front of 30,000 people right after the debate, the new ads, or the unemployment drop.
@Diablos Thanks
@Diablos Thanks
Its all good fun.
Oh, I'm not worried Obama's gonna lose. He's got this in the bag. Just trying to maximize profit.
If you bought ten shares, you'd get $100. Subtract what you spent to buy those shares for your profit. In your case, it'd be $100 - $64.70 for a profit of $35.30 (minus $5 per month, minus however much it cost you to put your money into your intrade account).
Some events are a little vague on the rules so you have to be careful. I think there's one that deals with "Democratic majority of Senate" but it counts independents that caucus with Democratics still as Independents (or something like that) so that affects odds. In other situations, you have things that can happen like scandals or maybe something crazy like a candidate gets assassinated. The more sure a thing is, the less you're likely to win. For example, you could buy 10 shares of "Obama is going to win Hawaii" and only make like $1-10.
eBay Huckster
Member
so in a way, your posting is diabloscare
...wait, how much could i conceivably win if i dropped $4500 on this assuming the share price inexplicably didn't shift at all
Black Mamba
Member
Ras and that other random poll are still the only national polls to show Romney ahead in the popular vote.
Gallup and Ipsos show a 2 or 3 point lead, RAND bigger. That and the older polls of WSJ/Fox/CNN/etc are still the last polls in the database, so Obama's national poll lead is still quite strong, albeit weaker. Plus, the model doesn't believe Ras's polling and adds a couple points back to Obama.
If by Tuesday we see gallup and Ipsos come down to a tie, RAND drop more, and maybe a Fox or WSJ poll released show a tie or Romney lead, then it will flip.
edit: There haven't been enough state polls conducted either to show a flip. Romney's ability to win the election won't really jump unless Ohio becomes very tight.
Also:
Oh
Fuck yeah!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...60ed0c-0fdf-11e2-ba6c-07bd866eb71a_story.html
cartoon_soldier
Member
He himself states that the model is currently underestimating Romney's performance.
We will know mid-next week, as more polls get published and all tracking polls move to post debate time frame.
Even then, a 5 point swing in WI for Romney is just ouch. Probably a good decision for Obama to hold a rally their immediately after. Need to see some proper OH numbers next. The citizen's united OH poll is garbage.
Gravis CO poll has only 8.9% Hispanics, they are supposed to be 14% of electorate, in 2008 they were at 11%.
Intrade shares are currently at $6.47 a share. Assuming you bought for Obama as many shares as you could and you had $4500 in your account, you could buy up to 695 shares and come out with $6950 (plus whatever change you had left in your account) for a profit of $2450 (if Obama wins). That's not subtracting how much it'll cost to put money into your account (depends how you do it; a check is free but takes the longest; a wire transfer from your bank is however much your bank costs; a member to member trade via paypal is a certain percentage of what you put in) and how much you have to pay per month ($5).
Souldriver
Member
Just something I've noticed.
NONE of these self made map links for me have worked. I've clicked on at least 10 of those by poligaffers, and I always end up with a map-less page.
De facto "Two Americas" stuff right here, yeah.
MasterShotgun
brazen editing lynx
Do you have Adblock turned on for the site? Turning it off did the trick for me.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Let's assume Romney gets a nice bounce...what do you think high of the Silver model could get to?
60-40?
50-50?
51-49 R?
Black Mamba
Member
Silver was wrong about 47%. I like him, but I wouldn't look to him to predict what will move the polls.
I think every rational person would conclude Romney should get some kind of bump from the debate. Only questions are, how big, among whom, and will it last?
But you're right, we'll know more next week.
Disable ad-blocking software for the site.
Yep, yep. All of this could have been avoided so easily.
Black Mamba
Member
In order to go ahead of 50/50, he'd have to be in the lead in the majority of polls, I'd imagine. Including the swing states.
I would imagine for it to be 60/40 or less (Obama lead) that there would need to be a consensus of Ohio polls showing the race close to tied long with Wisconsin and Iowa and Florida. But Ohio being the key.
Let's say the national polls are on average 49-47 for O and Ohio is +3.5 Obama. I think it would be over 70/30 (but this is pure guess as I obviously don't know what moves the model by what, just guessing based on what I've seen).
I will keep saying this. Romney has to go above 47 in the national and swing polls (in aggregate, not just Ras) before I would be too worried. That 47 number is pretty big. If he can't hit 48, he can't win.
ryutaro's mama
Member
cartoon_soldier
Member
The gravis poll has Romney leading CO blacks by 58-40, that is 6% of the voters in the poll. lol
Souldriver
Member
Ah! That'll be the problem.
lol wut
Black Mamba
Member
For what? nationally? It was like 48-43 or close to that.
I still don't think Romney will cross 47 and doubt the bounce will do it.. A cosmic irony in that figure, too.
So far, the data seems to show that he's picked up some concerned Repubs while some Obama supporters are contemplating staying home. This isn't good news, obviously, but it doesn't appear anyone is switching sides and the indies/moderates aren't budging yet, either.
At least with the current polling. If that holds, it means Romney's feat is sealed. Can't cross 47. As long as Obama doesn't shit the bet again, I'd say if Romney doesn't make a HUGE bounce (in that the swing states and national polls look close to tied) that it will be the best Romney can do but it won't be enough. Kind of like a late game charge in the 4th quarter against the reserves when down 15 only to fall short by 4 or 5.
edit: It should also be noted that the likely voter model will react too easily to sensitivity, ie repubs excited it might actually be a race. Registered Voter models less so and these, so far, seem to indicate not much change for Romney. The truth lies in between, as always.
I don't understand how a polling agency can release such data. Like, if that is the data you're getting, I think it's time to re-check your shit. Obama cannot get 95% of blacks nationally and end up at 40% in Colorado. It's statistical nonsense and any statistician should be ashamed for not trying to fix this.
Hobbestetrician
Member
http://deadspin.com/5949556/anti+ro...aper-hes-been-a-michigan-fan-a-long-long-time
From the Ohio State student newspaper. As a Spartan, I can get behind this ad.
ryutaro's mama
Member
And it's 49-47 now?
Wow, he lost 3 points on the debate alone?
That's pretty major...
eBay Huckster
Member
Technically speaking, he gained 1 and "undecided" lost 5.
AND YET the conservative media will probably cite this shit in an effort to discredit all those "mainstream" polls that are fudging the numbers.
This week!
It's not the base shifting that anyone should worry about, it's undecided voters giving Mitt a second chance after Obama got a free month that ultimately had them more or less in his pocket for the time being.
That in and of itself is just depressing.
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