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PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News

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T

The Librarian

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Check out this letter from a self-proclaimed staunch Republican on Obamacare:


Two things:

1) Obama has personally asked this man if he can use his story in a TV ad, and the man has said yes. So we'll probably be seeing that pretty soon.

2) He's from North Carolina. What does this mean for Kay Hagan?

Also, PPACA signups are surging in the last minute. Signups will blitz past 7 million before the deadline and go even higher during the extension.
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I plan on leaving North Carolina in August. What does that mean for Kay Hagan?
 
W

WayneMorse

Banned
j8OmzVJ.jpg


Welp
 
C

Crisco

Banned
Now that this stupid deadline has come and gone and the realized number is close enough to the goal so that neither side can really claim victory, maybe the debate can finally move on to the parts of the law that actually matter. That number was really just a benchmark for the efficacy of the exchange model, not a litmus test for the entire law. Hopefully now the administration will shift to talking about how things like ACOs, pay for performance models, and standardized electronic health records will actually improve the way health care is delivered in this country. That was always the most significant part of the law.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Crisco said:
Now that this stupid deadline has come and gone and the realized number is close enough to the goal so that neither side can really claim victory, maybe the debate can finally move on to the parts of the law that actually matter. That number was really just a benchmark for the efficacy of the exchange model, not a litmus test for the entire law. Hopefully now the administration will shift to talking about how things like ACOs, pay for performance models, and standardized electronic health records will actually improve the way health care is delivered in this country. That was always the most significant part of the law.
Click to expand...

The narrative won't change. Not as long as Fox News and the Republican party continues to stay so vocally against it.
 
T

TacticalFox88

Banned
Wilsongt said:
The narrative won't change. Not as long as Fox News and the Republican party continues to stay so vocally against it.
Click to expand...

Nah.

The thing about Americans is they all hate "socialism" until they get a tiny taste of it. Then they won't go back.

Which is why I kind of wish some sort of Single Payer had passed. Americans get a taste of that and any person who tries to take it away will get absolutely slaughtered in their next election.
 
S

shadowsdarknes

Member
Ezra Klein and Susan Crawford debate the viability of a public option for internet access.

I'm certainly pessimistic on whether this can actually happen considering the austerity kick we are on.

But it's a good video.

Give it a watch.
 
A

AndyD

aka andydumi
shadowsdarknes said:
Ezra Klein and Susan Crawford debate the viability of a public option for internet access.

I'm certainly pessimistic on whether this can actually happen considering the austerity kick we are on.

But it's a good video.

Give it a watch.
Click to expand...

This has been discussed back and forth for a few years now and it would work quite well in more developed areas where they can connect to schools and libraries, but less well in more rural areas or over longer distances. Good idea nonetheless though.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
W

Wilsongt

Member
Website Troubles II: Electric Obama Failure Boogaloo

Technical problems pose roadblock to those looking to beat ObamaCare deadline

New technical problems with HealthCare.gov posed a roadblock Monday to people trying to beat the sign-up deadline.

On Monday afternoon, a technical glitch was preventing people from filing new applications. A tech team, though, was brought in to resolve the issue.

Earlier Monday, a series of error messages came up as the large volume of users stressed the system.

According to HHS, more than 100,000 people were using the system at once as of noon. The increased traffic is good news for the administration, but the recurring website problems are not.

The deadline to sign up for the president's signature health care law technically is midnight today, though many who have trouble signing in will be given an extension into April.

Amid the return of technical problems, the roiling, years-long debate about enrollment numbers and practically every other aspect of President Obama’s health care law appears far from over in this politically charged election year.
Click to expand...

Faux News is the source.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Holy shit!

Public support for the Affordable Care Act narrowly notched a new high in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, while criticism of Barack Obama’s handling of the law’s rollout – although still substantial – has eased from its peak last fall.

Views hardly are enthusiastic: With the year’s sign-up deadline upon us, Americans split on Obamacare, 49 percent in support, 48 percent opposed. But that compares with a 40-57 percent negative rating after the initial failure of the federal enrollment website last November.

While still shy of a majority, 49 percent support is numerically the highest on record – albeit by a single point – in more than 20 ABC/Post polls since August 2009. The previous high was 48 percent in November 2009. The low was 39 percent in April 2012; the average, 45 percent.
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http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2014/03/at-49-percent-support-obamacare-hits-a-high/

Part of me is screaming "outlier," but it still indicates the trend up (remember, that poll that had it at 26% has the unfavorable no different than this poll, just a ton of undecideds).

Hopefully, this poll is indicative of the future and the GOP feel the heat soon enough.

CHANGE – Views on the law, as noted, have shifted disproportionately in an unexpected area – among conservatives. While most remain opposed, that’s declined from 81 percent in November to 61 percent now. Similarly, while conservatives are particularly critical of Obama’s handling of the law, this has eased from 84 percent disapproval last fall to 69 percent today.
Independents, potential swing voters in the midterm elections, continue to tilt against the law, with 44 percent in support, 54 percent opposed, but that compares with 36-62 percent last fall. And while just 37 percent of independents approve of Obama’s handling of the rollout, that is 14 points more than its low four and a half months ago.

Among other groups mentioned above, support for the ACA is up by 16 points vs. November among adults under age 40 – a coveted group for the law’s insurance pools – from 38 percent then to 54 percent now. It’s gained a similar 15 points among those with incomes less than $50,000, from 38 percent then to 53 percent; 14 points among nonwhites, to 68 percent (compared with just 40 percent support among whites); and 12 points among those who lack a college degree, to 46 percent support.
Click to expand...
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
Wilsongt said:
Ocarefacts.jpg


Fucking facts, how do they work?
Click to expand...

These are the arguments I really don't get. I mean, even if this were true, what is the conclusion of this person's argument? Is more people having health care supposed to be bad? Granted, that wouldn't be a lot, but the recommended action were this true would remove healthcare from an even larger percentage of people.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Man, you know it's been a long time since we've heard about Benghazi; maybe the GOP finally

A trio of Republican senators is pushing for a special committee to investigate the 2012 attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi that left four Americans dead.

"We are once again calling for the appointment of a Joint Select Committee to investigate the terrorist attacks on our compounds in Benghazi," said Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), John McCain (R-AZ) and Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) in a statement Monday. "It is imperative that we learn everything that happened before, during and after the attacks. A Joint Select Committee should be established."

The push comes as House Democrats are demanding that House Oversight Committee Chair Darrell Issa (R-CA) give up his year-and-a-half long probe into purported Obama administration mischief over the attack. Democrats accuse Issa of pursuing a witch hunt aimed at tarnishing the president and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton ahead of a possible 2016 presidential run. To date, there isn't evidence to implicate Clinton or senior White House officials in wrongdoing.
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Oh.

BENGHAZI BENGHAZI BENGHAZI!!!
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
IMcCain, Graham and Ayotte have always been a weird bunch. They don't seem to give a fuck about the normal GOP platform, only piddling foreign policy wannabe shit.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
"Obama is only using the missing plane to distract from the real issue - Obamacare's not working!"

vs.

"Obama is only using the success of Obamacare to distract from the real issue - BENGHAZI!"
 
C

Crisco

Banned
It's sad, funny, and yet I'm somewhat envious of their zeal to bury Obama. I wish democratic lawmakers were that passionate about bringing members of the Bush administration and banking industry to justice.
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
DEADHEAT POLITICS WRITERS!!

We just got around to moving the wordpress.com blog onto my hosting, as a result, I believe while the writer accounts moved over, the passwords very most likely didn't. Writers please PM me with your email address your DHP account was under, and I'll send you the log in location (should be the exact same as before) and a temporary password (WHICH YOU SHOULD CHANGE IMMEDIATELY).
 
R

RustyNails

Member
StopMakingSense said:
DEADHEAT POLITICS WRITERS!!

We just got around to moving the wordpress.com blog onto my hosting, as a result, I believe while the writer accounts moved over, the passwords very most likely didn't. Writers please PM me with your email address your DHP account was under, and I'll send you the log in location (should be the exact same as before) and a temporary password (WHICH YOU SHOULD CHANGE IMMEDIATELY).
Click to expand...
ITS ALIVE

Seriously thanks for keeping dhp (and wolf blitzer) live. It will be interesting year.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
entrement said:
Is ReaClearPolitics.com a balanced site? I know it's an aggregrator, but is their polling data good?
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They have a conservative lean and their lead analyst (Sean Trende) is an idiot but as an aggregator they're fine I guess.


Their prediction from 2000 when they were just starting out however is fucking hilarious:

CNN/USA Today/Gallup, MSNBC/Zogby and Newsweek have done a nice job closing the polls for Vice President Gore. All three polls now have Gore within two points and supposedly gaining. We'll see Tuesday whether the propaganda campaign to keep Democrats from becoming disillusioned and voting for Nader was successful in diluting the size of the Bush victory.

As we have said all along, Gore needed to close to within 2% in our RCP Composites to have a realistic chance to win. He has not done so. (RCP Tracking Composite Bush 47.3 Gore 41.2, RCP National Poll Composite Bush 47.0 Gore 42.8) George W. Bush will be elected President of the United States tomorrow by the American people. But the last minute Gore push in some polls has perhaps given enough liberal Democrats hope to not waste their vote on Nader.

The real debate is not who is going to win the election, but whether Bush will win 308 electoral votes or 474 electoral votes. The media's fantasy of Bush winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college is not going happen. The worst case scenario for a Bush victory will be a 2-3 point win in the popular vote and 10-20% more than the necessary 270 EC votes.

For those who still maintain Mr. Gore has a chance of winning, consider the scenarios under which this is possible. If Gore does not win Florida (the evidence indicates he will not), he must run the table, taking IL, CA, PA, MI, MN, WI, WA, OR, TN, AR, WV and DE along with his base 92 votes for a 273-265 EC win. It won't happen. Even with a victory in Florida, Gore must win at least 70% of the remaining battleground states to eke out a victory. The truth is that George W. Bush has a better chance of carrying New Jersey and Vermont than Al Gore does of becoming the next President of the United States.

When you sift through the haze of polls and media disinformation, the anecdotal facts are clear. Bush and Gore are fighting it out in Democratic Iowa, West Virginia, Minnesota and even Gore's home state of Tennessee. Bush is reaching out to moderate Democrats and independents while Gore is frantically trying to energize his base. The media openly acknowledges Bush's base is more energized and that Gore faces a significant threat from Nader on his left. Yet the pundits still talk as if the election is too close to call and could go either way.

On Tuesday night the talking heads will all be abuzz with their exit poll analyses showing how Bush destroyed Gore in the male vote, broke even with women, carried over 40% of the Hispanic vote, and the surprising strength of Ralph Nader. All of this is clear today, but it will take the network exit polls to make it clear to the national press.

We continue to see a landslide of over 400 electoral votes and a Bush win by 7-10 points. We will have to wait until tomorrow to see whether the "tightening polls" may have worked to save Illinois, California, Minnesota and a few others for the Vice President.
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This is unskewing on steroids.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Dave Camp won't seek re-election

Politico said:
Michigan Rep. Dave Camp, the chairman of the prestigious Ways and Means Committee, will not run for reelection in November, according to multiple Republican sources.

Camp was first elected in 1990.
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Dave Camp represents MI-4. Obama won the district in 2008 by 2 points, but Romney won it by 8 in 2012 following redistricting. It would probably take a huge Democratic wave to have a chance here, but that's no excuse for DCCC to slouch, either.

Dropping like flies I tells ya!
 
R

Retro

Member
Benghazi's back, baby!

Considering her role as Secretary of State keeps her relatively free from the majority of domestic potshots, Hilary can still safely take a lot of the credit for stuff as a democrat but has enough distance from the day-to-day that the Right can only very loosely hang "part of the Obama administration" (or, as I would expect from all but the more legitimate candidates, the Obama "Regime") around her neck.

Benghazi is really the only albatross they can throw at her, at least that the average voter outside of New York state can immediately grasp. If she runs, it is the buzziest buzzword at the GOP's disposal without trying to attach her to Bill (which immediately invokes a period of prosperity, so they can't be too eager to try that.)

Expect to hear that drum beat more and more and more and more from here on out in anticipation of her running.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
I know Time had a story about the turnaround a few weeks ago, but this is an impressive comeback story that will be talked about for some time, and perhaps even discussed in business classes.The entire thing seemed DOA in October and November. And back then, even a rebound seemed like it might get to 4-5 million sign ups, based on how ugly the situation was.

Nothing succeeds like success. Republicans can still argue "only" 2 million of the 7 were previously uninsured, but when you add the Medicaid/young people/non exchange enrollees/etc up you still get to 9 million. Gallup and Rand are showing the uninsured rate has dropped. We've moved into a new reality that requires a different way to look at this program. There will be some republicans who troll it up by playing dumb ("lol 7 million people, 293 million to go!") and those who continue to question the premium payments but ultimately I think we can safely bury the repeal movement. Especially considering the GOP doesn't have a god damn idea or bill to replace this with.

It seems to me the goal was always to run up the scoreboard. Republicans could have theoretically repealed the law if it only had 2-3 million people under it, for instance. By November there could easily be 11-14 million people under this law. Good luck, GOP.
 
A

Aaron

Member
Retro said:
Expect to hear that drum beat more and more and more and more from here on out in anticipation of her running.
Click to expand...
And the people this might actually sway will be so sick and numb of hearing about it come voting time. Great plan, GOP.
 
B

bananas

Banned
I expect Obamacare to be a non-issue by the summer. It won't help the Democrats, but it won't help the GOP either. In fact if they go full crazy on the repeal movement, it could even hurt them.

I think people are mostly fed up with talking about healthcare. They want to move on to other issues. Issues that the Democrats tend to have more support with.

It maybe a long shot for them to retake the House, but we still got 7 months to go. Stranger things have happened.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
bananas said:
I expect Obamacare to be a non-issue by the summer. It won't help the Democrats, but it won't help the GOP either. In fact if they go full crazy on the repeal movement, it could even hurt them.

I think people are mostly fed up with talking about healthcare. They want to move on to other issues. Issues that the Democrats tend to have more support with.

It maybe a long shot for them to retake the House, but we still got 7 months to go. Stranger things have happened.
Click to expand...
I want to hope the rash of recent Republican retirements has improved Democrats' chances, but it's still a slog.

There is a path to a majority through 20 districts (AR-2,CA-21,25,31,CO-6,FL-2,13,IA-3,IL-13,LA-6,MI-1,7,11,NE-2,NJ-3,NY-11,19,PA-6,VA-10,WV-2) that could conceivably go to the Democrats, but they'd really have to run the tables, especially since two of their districts (NC-7 and UT-4) are gone and another one (NY-21) probably is too, though that one is still winnable.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
bananas said:
I expect Obamacare to be a non-issue by the summer. It won't help the Democrats, but it won't help the GOP either. In fact if they go full crazy on the repeal movement, it could even hurt them.

I think people are mostly fed up with talking about healthcare. They want to move on to other issues. Issues that the Democrats tend to have more support with.

It maybe a long shot for them to retake the House, but we still got 7 months to go. Stranger things have happened.
Click to expand...
That's part of the danger for democrats. If it doesn't help democrats that could mean many stayed home despite benefitting from the law. The right will show up regardless so democrats need to as well.

I could see it being a non issue to many independents though.
 
B

bananas

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
That's part of the danger for democrats. If it doesn't help democrats that could mean many stayed home despite benefitting from the law. The right will show up regardless so democrats need to as well.

I could see it being a non issue to many independents though.
Click to expand...

I think the minimum wage and immigration can be trumpeted to bring out the base.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
That's part of the danger for democrats. If it doesn't help democrats that could mean many stayed home despite benefitting from the law. The right will show up regardless so democrats need to as well.

I could see it being a non issue to many independents though.
Click to expand...
Yeah but if the law wasn't working, those Democrats would have even less incentive to turn out.

Getting more people to agree with you is all upside.
 
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