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PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News

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T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
bananas said:
I expect Obamacare to be a non-issue by the summer. It won't help the Democrats, but it won't help the GOP either. In fact if they go full crazy on the repeal movement, it could even hurt them.

I think people are mostly fed up with talking about healthcare. They want to move on to other issues. Issues that the Democrats tend to have more support with.

It maybe a long shot for them to retake the House, but we still got 7 months to go. Stranger things have happened.
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You're right. At some point it's practically the same as running defense ads on Bengahzi. All you're doing is just making republicans more motivated.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Aaron Strife said:
But!

j8OmzVJ.jpg


This is fucking awesome news.
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Cross posting from banana's other thread for who really only frequent poligaf (like me!)
lWhFrsM.jpg
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I know Time had a story about the turnaround a few weeks ago, but this is an impressive comeback story that will be talked about for some time, and perhaps even discussed in business classes.The entire thing seemed DOA in October and November. And back then, even a rebound seemed like it might get to 4-5 million sign ups, based on how ugly the situation was.

Nothing succeeds like success. Republicans can still argue "only" 2 million of the 7 were previously uninsured, but when you add the Medicaid/young people/non exchange enrollees/etc up you still get to 9 million. Gallup and Rand are showing the uninsured rate has dropped. We've moved into a new reality that requires a different way to look at this program. There will be some republicans who troll it up by playing dumb ("lol 7 million people, 293 million to go!") and those who continue to question the premium payments but ultimately I think we can safely bury the repeal movement. Especially considering the GOP doesn't have a god damn idea or bill to replace this with.

It seems to me the goal was always to run up the scoreboard. Republicans could have theoretically repealed the law if it only had 2-3 million people under it, for instance. By November there could easily be 11-14 million people under this law. Good luck, GOP.
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Yeah, remember who wasn't panicking back in November? Me.

Remember when I posted graphs about how Romneycare's signups went? Yeah, the ACA followed it's pattern to a T.

The GOP lost, plain and simple. It's not being repealed and I largely agree with bananas (that sentence sounds hilarious out loud, btw). There is Obamacare fatigue setting in, the stance of full repeal is unpopular, and people will start to focus on other things. The Dems might have an edge if they push a lack of medicaid expansion in certain states.

Come October, the ACA won't be the negative people thought it would (as I argued all along). The status quo has changed. Our country is better for it and people will realize it.

I, for one, am glad that a lot of uninsured or underinsured people now have somewhat adequate coverage. Now the goal is getting the other people covered.


Edit: On a related note, people seem to be glossing over a very key stat. According to RAND, some 9 million people have signed up off-line in addition to the 7 million online. Most of the offliners were previously insured (and by a large margin).

If you assume around 5 million people were "canceled," that's still a 4 million gap. Even if 1 million were previously uninsured, it still means 3 million people who had insurance decided that they could get better and/or cheaper insurance after the ACA came along, which is very interesting to me. In other words, competition caused movement.
 
F

FyreWulff

Member
Waiting until the last second for a deadline is the american way. I mean, come on, look at all the people that wait to file taxes until April.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Dick Cheney's mouth opened again today. Not very intelligent stuff fell out


Speaking about the possibility of Iran developing a nuclear weapon, Cheney dismissed Obama's negotiations with Tehran, and he recalled a dinner meeting he had in 2007 with Israeli General Amos Yadlin. Yadlin had flown in the Israeli Defense Force's mission in 1981 that destroyed Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor, and he was the country's military intelligence chief in 2007 when the Israel Defense Forces obliterated Syria's nuclear reactor in the Deir ez-Zor region. Recalling his conversation with Yadlin, Cheney said, "He looked across the table over dinner, and he said, 'Two down, one to go.' I knew exactly what he meant."

"One to go" was an obvious reference to bombing Iran's nuclear program. The crowd responded approvingly with laughter and applause. (Last October, Adelson publicly proposed that the US drop a nuclear bomb in the Iranian desert to show Tehran what will happen to Iran if it develops nuclear weapons.)
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. "The bottom line is," Cheney groused, "the United States' position in [the Middle East] is worse than at any time in my lifetime." He added, "It's reached the point where Israel and Egypt, [the United Arab] Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan are closer to one another—imagine that!—than any of them is to us... Nobody who's been our friend in the past any longer has any sense of trust in we'll keep our commitments, that we'll be there in a crisis when they need us. On the other hand, none of our adversaries need fear us."
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tumblr_m6pqqvEGEy1qcwic6.gif


Cheney complained that "some candidates" think that the Middle East is "not our problem... Bring the boys home. There's no reason in the world for us to be involved in that part of the world." But, he remarked, "anybody who thinks back on the problems of 9/11" knows "it makes absolutely no sense at all for us to contemplate that course of action."
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And he asserted that if these [NSA] programs had been in place, "it probably would've allowed us to stop 9/11." Not surprisingly, he blamed the NSA's current woes on Obama: "We don't have a president who can stand up and defend the program. Nobody believes him—for good reason. Look what he did with health care."
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anigif_enhanced-buzz-29083-1377623466-19.gif


Hobbestetrician said:
Where is Kevin Bacon?
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The connections are too numerous
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
APKmetsfan said:
Bj72H5MIEAEgJvT.jpg:large
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My favorite part is all the extra terminal nodes. Like, I think the plan was to have everything lead to Democrats in the end. Some sort of terrible, incontrovertible final result. But "Diversity" and "Social Justice" are end nodes, too. Karl Marx isn't the only root node, you've also got John Maynard Keynes popping out of nowhere. The graph also terminates at "Abortion." All in all a poor effort.
 
W

WayneMorse

Banned
So now that Obamacare is officially a success will Dems now be more confident in defending it?

Don't tell me they're trying to run away from it again like in 2010.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2014/03/report-univision-telemundo-skew-liberal-186084.html

The main U.S. Spanish-language nightly news programs skew liberal on domestic issues and spent most of their air times in the past few months covering the new health care law, immigration reform and immigration law enforcement, the conservative-leaning media watchdog group Media Research Center found in a new study.
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People shocked that Latino news skews towards the Latino Communities interests! They focus on things that matter to Latinos. Just like Fox News spends time on things that matter to old white people, like freaking out about Spring Break and Drugs
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
S

speculawyer

Member
APKmetsfan said:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2014/03/report-univision-telemundo-skew-liberal-186084.html



People shocked that Latino news skews towards the Latino Communities interests! They focus on things that matter to Latinos. Just like Fox News spends time on things that matter to old white people, like freaking out about Spring Break and Drugs
Click to expand...

What a great example of how conservatives just "don't get" latinos. At all. Those are not 'liberal' issues then are human issues that many Latinos care about! Just saying "Death Taxes" in Spanish is not going to be what gets you Latino voters.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Its not like they can interact with much of the Latino Community. Kinda hurts when you constantly insult the Spanish Language and refuse to learn it. The US has the 2nd or 3rd (maybe 4th) largest Spanish speaking population in the world.
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
The hostility around which the GOP has built their immigration stance will probably go down in history as one of their biggest mistakes during this era.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Remember after the election when guys like Hannity were saying they would change their views on immigration?

Good times.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Tamanon said:
The hostility around which the GOP has built their immigration stance will probably go down in history as one of their biggest mistakes during this era.
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It killed the modern GOP on the national scale. And honestly I think people will look at Mitt Romney as one of the biggest culprits. People forget but it was Romney who flanked McCain's right on immigration in 2008; his attacks were vicious and eventually led McCain to disown his own immigration policy. Romney doubled down in 2012, outflanking Rick Perry.

And while republicans destroyed Bush's immigration policy in his second term, I honestly think the biggest reason for this implosion is Obama. Republicans have rejected every aspect of him, but perhaps the biggest thing they've rejected is the idea of "diversity" and racial identity. It's stunning how frequent you now hear republicans argue against racial or national identity. "You're not African America, you're American." It's the next phase of "this is America, speak English." They believe Obama has torn the country apart with this diversity focus, and reject immigration reform because they believe it's the next step in Obama's plan to change America.

They're fucked. Hispanics aren't thrilled with Obama right now but ultimately that won't convince them to vote for "x republican candidate" in 2016.
 
A

Aylinato

Member
PhoenixDark said:
It killed the modern GOP on the national scale. And honestly I think people will look at Mitt Romney as one of the biggest culprits. People forget but it was Romney who flanked McCain's right on immigration in 2008; his attacks were vicious and eventually led McCain to disown his own immigration policy. Romney doubled down in 2012, outflanking Rick Perry.

And while republicans destroyed Bush's immigration policy in his second term, I honestly think the biggest reason for this implosion is Obama. Republicans have rejected every aspect of him, but perhaps the biggest thing they've rejected is the idea of "diversity" and racial identity. It's stunning how frequent you now hear republicans argue against racial or national identity. "You're not African America, you're American." It's the next phase of "this is America, speak English." They believe Obama has torn the country apart with this diversity focus, and reject immigration reform because they believe it's the next step in Obama's plan to change America.

They're fucked. Hispanics aren't thrilled with Obama right now but ultimately that won't convince them to vote for "x republican candidate" in 2016.
Click to expand...

I always get mad when people just tell me I'm only "American" I'm Irish American dammit
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
wapo reporter's twitter said:
McConnell on Obamacare enrollment hitting 7 million: We don't know how many of those have paid, calls ACA a "catastrophe"
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Well, I guess doubling down on this is something you could do, Mitch. Have fun with that...
 
C

Crisco

Banned
At this point, I want some Democrats to bring a bill to the floor that officially changes the law's name to Obamacare.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
A

Avon Barksdale

Member
PhoenixDark said:
It killed the modern GOP on the national scale. And honestly I think people will look at Mitt Romney as one of the biggest culprits. People forget but it was Romney who flanked McCain's right on immigration in 2008; his attacks were vicious and eventually led McCain to disown his own immigration policy. Romney doubled down in 2012, outflanking Rick Perry.

And while republicans destroyed Bush's immigration policy in his second term, I honestly think the biggest reason for this implosion is Obama. Republicans have rejected every aspect of him, but perhaps the biggest thing they've rejected is the idea of "diversity" and racial identity. It's stunning how frequent you now hear republicans argue against racial or national identity. "You're not African America, you're American." It's the next phase of "this is America, speak English." They believe Obama has torn the country apart with this diversity focus, and reject immigration reform because they believe it's the next step in Obama's plan to change America.

They're fucked. Hispanics aren't thrilled with Obama right now but ultimately that won't convince them to vote for "x republican candidate" in 2016.
Click to expand...

Most Latinos I know are more left-wing than you think. They're not this mythical swing vote the media makes them out to be.
 
C

Crisco

Banned
WayneMorse said:
So now that Obamacare is officially a success will Dems now be more confident in defending it?

Don't tell me they're trying to run away from it again like in 2010.
Click to expand...

They don't necessarily have to "defend" it, they just need to shift the debate so Republicans are left grappling with the consequences of what happens in the event of a repeal. Basically force any GOP candidate running against Obamacare to detail their plan for insuring the millions currently covered under the law.
 
W

WayneMorse

Banned
My guess is that over the summer/early fall Obama will do something through executive order, like softening his stance on deportations, in order to placate the Latino voters who would otherwise stay home in November.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Avon Barksdale said:
Most Latinos I know are more left-wing than you think. They're not this mythical swing vote the media makes them out to be.
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I'm not talking about that; of course Hispanics are liberal on most economic and even social issues. My point is that Obama's approval among Hispanics has dropped, which many believe relates to the deportation issue as well as healthcare; surprisingly Hispanic sign up rates are really lagging behind other minorities. Despite that there is no path for Hispanics to flee the democrat party since they agree with them on most things, and the GOP is insane.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Avon Barksdale said:
Most Latinos I know are more left-wing than you think. They're not this mythical swing vote the media makes them out to be.
Click to expand...

Yeah, this is more true than I realized as well. I used to fall for the "Well, the largely Catholic latino population will back the GOP on abortion" meme . . . but it is not true. Certainly many latinos are anti-abortion but the polling indicates that the majority of latinos are pro-choice.

The GOP does want to hear that and is still running with the believe that they can attract lots of latinos with anti-abortion policies. Good luck with that.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
I'm expecting obscenely high employment numbers this friday for march. We have a lag carryover from feb storms and many economists are expecting a boost. My office saw two new hires last month.

Hope Dems can ride the positive train to November. Knowing Dems, they will still probably be on the defensive.
 
C

campfireweekend

Member
speculawyer said:
Yeah, this is more true than I realized as well. I used to fall for the "Well, the largely Catholic latino population will back the GOP on abortion" meme . . . but it is not true. Certainly many latinos are anti-abortion but the polling indicates that the majority of latinos are pro-choice.

The GOP does want to hear that and is still running with the believe that they can attract lots of latinos with anti-abortion policies. Good luck with that.
Click to expand...

This does raise the question, are there any minorities that would have a conservative lean if not for the GOP's xenophobia?

I know Muslims lean democratic, but is that because of policies, or because of the Republican party's image?
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
campfireweekend said:
This does raise the question, are there any minorities that would have a conservative lean if not for the GOP's xenophobia?

I know Muslims lean democratic, but is that because of policies, or because of the Republican party's image?
Click to expand...

Cubans. Yet even that bloc is turning blue; Obama won 48% of the Cuban vote in Florida, compared to 35% in 2008 and Kerry's 28% in 2004. That's moreso due to older Cubans who remember Castro/JFK dying off, and younger Cubans being more liberal in general - like most young people.
 
J

JesseEwiak

Member
campfireweekend said:
This does raise the question, are there any minorities that would have a conservative lean if not for the GOP's xenophobia?

I know Muslims lean democratic, but is that because of policies, or because of the Republican party's image?
Click to expand...

Um, there was this thing that happened that made the Republicans not react well to Muslims.

Seriously though, Muslim's were actually GOP-leaning before 9/11. Then, well, 9/11 and the reaction to it happened.

Cubans. Yet even that bloc is turning blue; Obama won 48% of the Cuban vote in Florida, compared to 35% in 2008 and Kerry's 28% in 2004. That's moreso due to older Cubans who remember Castro/JFK dying off, and younger Cubans being more liberal in general - like most young people.
Click to expand...

Yup, even if Cubans were originally conservative leaning because those that escaped were largely the middle and upper middle class of the island, 50 years of living in America has ground that down. Your average 26 year old Cuban guy has far more in common with the black or Mexican guy living around the corner than his 70 year old uncle who talks about returning to Havana once Castro kicks the bucket.
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
Avon Barksdale said:
Most Latinos I know are more left-wing than you think. They're not this mythical swing vote the media makes them out to be.
Click to expand...

Yeah. One thing that's pretty striking when you visit a place like Mexico is how socialism is not the dirty word it is here. They are proud of the socialist elements of their history and culture. My fairly conservative Father-in-law speaks about it warmly when he tours us around. Even the street names are imbued with a lot of socialist symbology. It's pretty cool.
 
W

WayneMorse

Banned
Holy shit Obama is GOING IN right now.

He just called out the Koch brothers!

edit: Obama is blowing off so much steam right now this is hilarious.
 
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